江苏现代服务贸易区域竞争力研究.doc

各类论文专业代写QQ625880526分类号学号UDC密级学位论文江苏现代服务贸易区域竞争力现状、问题与对策研究以苏粤区域为例2012年3月目录摘要·······································································································IABSTRACT··································································································II目录···································································································2第一章绪论···························································································1第一节研究背景和意义············································································1一、研究背景················································································································1二、研究意义················································································································2第二节研究内容、方法及技术路线······························································3一、研究内容················································································································3二、研究方法················································································································3三、技术路线················································································································4第三节相关文献综述···············································································5一、服务贸易方面的研究·······························································································5二、现代服务贸易方面的研究························································································5三、服务贸易影响因素方面的研究··················································································6四、服务贸易竞争力测量方面的研究··············································································7五、扬州市对外贸易的相关研究·····················································································8第四节研究创新点及不足·········································································9一、研究创新点············································································································9二、不足之处················································································································9第二章江苏现代服务贸易竞争力现状分析11第一节江苏、广东2001-2010年现代服务贸易数据统计分析一、江苏2001-2010年现代服务贸易统计数据分析························································12二、广东2001-2010年现在服务贸易统计数据发析························································14第二节影响现代服务贸易因素分析第三节现代服务贸易竞争力评价指标各类论文专业代写QQ625880526第三章基于“钻石模型”对江苏、广东现代服务贸易竞争力实证比较研究····18第一节江苏现代服务贸易竞争力研究························································18一、竞争优势··············································································································18二、存在的问题···········································································································21第二节广东现代服务贸易竞争力研究························································25一、竞争优势··············································································································26二、存在的问题···········································································································28第四章提升江苏现代服务贸易竞争力的对策与建议·····································37一、宏观层面··············································································································49二、微观层面··············································································································51第五章结语·························································································54参考文献·································································································55致谢······································································································58扬州大学学位论文原创性声明和版权使用授权书··········································59各类论文专业代写QQ625880526I摘要“十一五”以来，随着对外开放的不断扩大，中国的服务贸易发展实现了跨越式发展，各省在服务贸易发展领域取得了一系列成绩的同时，也存在着各种问题和挑战。江苏服务贸易发展水平与其他的一些省份相比仍然存在一定差距，很多问题亟待解决，如政府职能需要转变，产品结构调整步伐不够快，出口产品在国际上的竞争力不强，对外贸易地区发展不均衡等。在这种情况下，对江苏省现代服务贸易发展水平进行深入客观的分析研究，并在此基础上预测其对外贸易的未来发展趋势，在复杂多变的国际国内环境下，为扬州市对外贸易的持续健康发展提供战略依据和实践指导，具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文首先整理了对外贸易发展水平现状分析和预测方面的文献综述。其次，对扬州市经济发展及对外贸易发展历程做了介绍。然后，对扬州市“十一五”期间对外贸易取得的成绩及存在的问题进行了总结，并从对外贸易规模与速度、对外贸易商品结构、对外贸易方式、对外贸易主体、对外贸易地理方向等五个方面分析了扬州市对外贸易发展水平状况。再次，引入时间序列预测法，建立ARIMA模型，对扬州市“十二五”期间对外贸易发展规模进行了预测、分析和研究。通过预测分析，本文认为“十二五”期间扬州市对外贸易呈逐年增长趋势，但增长速度不快，平均在18%左右。最后在以上分析的基础上，从宏观层面提出了转变政府职能、转变外贸增长方式、优化出口商品结构、大力发展加工贸易、加快实施市场多元化战略、合理引导进口、加强境外合作和从微观层面提出了加快转换外贸企业机制的步伐、加快实施市场多元化战略、推进产品的深加工、培育具有国际竞争力的出口名牌等促进扬州市对外贸易发展的政策和建议，为扬州市各级政府正确评价对外贸易的发展水平，把握对外贸易的发展趋势，制定对外贸易的发展战略提供了参考依据。关键词：扬州市；对外贸易；发展水平评价；前景预测IIABSTRACTTheforeigntradeofYangzhoucityisstillfacingvariouschallengesandproblemsinspiteofthefactthatgreatprogresshasbeenachievedthankstothebroadeningofthepolicyofreformandopeningupsincetheinitiationoftheEleventhNationalFive-yearPlan.ThedevelopmentofYangzhousforeigntradeevenlagsbehindsomecitiesinsouthernJiangsuprovince,andmanyproblemscallforimmediatesolution,suchasthereformofthegovernmentsfunction,thereadjustmentofthestructureofproducts,thelackofcompetingstrengthoftheexportedproductsintheworld,theregionaldevelopmentimbalanceofYangzhousforeigntrade.Basedonthis,thisthesisisintendedtoconductaprofoundandobjectiveanalysisonthedevelopmentoftheforeigntradeofYangzhou,topredictthetrendofthedevelopmentinthefutureandtoproposeapplicablestrategiesandpracticalguidancetothehealthyandsustainabledevelopment.Thethesisstartswithatheoreticalintroductionofforeigntradedevelopmentlevelstatusanalysisandforecast.ThenitgoesonwithadescriptionofthehistoryofthedevelopmentoftheeconomyandforeigntradeofYangzhou.Finally,itdrawsaconclusiononboththeachievementandexistingproblemsandexploresthedevelopmentoftheforeigntradeinthefiveaspects:thescaleandspeed,thecommoditystructure,foreigntrademethods,thesubjectsintradeandgeographicorientationofforeigntrade.Thethesisgoesafurthersteptoperformaprediction,analysisandresearchonthescaleoftheforeigntradedevelopmentofYangzhouintheTwelfthFive-yearPlanbyintroducingtimeseriesforecastingandestablishingARIMAmodel.ItisrevealedthattheforeigntradeofYangzhouisgrowingatamoderateannualrateofaroundeighteenpercent.Finally,basedontheforegoinganalysis,thethesisputsforwardproposalsonthechangeofthegovernmentsrole,thealterationofthegrowingmethodsofforeigntrade,theenhancementofthecommoditystructure,thepromotionofproductprocessingandtrading,thejustifiableimportchannelandstrengtheningcooperationwithforeigncountriesfromthemacroscopiclevel,andputsforwardproposalsonthepaceofforeigntradeenterprisemechanism,themultiplestrategiesofthemarket,promotionproductsdeepprocessing,thecultivationofbrands各类论文专业代写QQ625880526IIIinexportfromthemicrocosmiclevel.Itpresentsreferencestothelocalgovernmentsforthemtoproperlyassessthedevelopment,tojudgethetrendandtolaydownstrategiesoftheforeigntradeinYangzhou.KeyWords:theCityofYangzhou,Foreigntrade,assessmentofthedevelopment,prediction徐小兰扬州市对外贸易发展水平分析与预测1第一章绪论第一节研究背景和意义一、研究背景当今世界是一个开放的世界，随着区域经济一体化和经济全球化的发展，任何一个国家和地区都不可能在闭关锁国、脱离国际经济体系的条件下得到发展，对外贸易已成为各国经济发展的重要支柱之一。对外贸易可以互通有无、调剂余缺、实现资源的优化配置；可以扩大就业机会，节约社会劳动力；可以吸收引进当代先进的科学技术成果，增强本国的经济实力；可以促进国内企业不断更新技术，提高劳动生产力和产品的国际化水平，缩短与发达国家和地区的差距，因此对外贸易成为拉动国民经济高速增长的决定性因素之一。扬州是一座古老的历史文化名城，地处长江中下游平原东端、江苏省中部。自隋代开通大运河后，扬州就成为中国东南地区政治、经济、文化活动的中心和国际交往、对外贸易的重要港埠。“十一五”以来，扬州市通过大力开展技术创新和技术改造活动，努力壮大优势产业和重点骨干企业，经济结构逐步优化，经济实力不断增强。扬州市通过实施市场多元化、以质取胜和大经贸战略，加快调整对外贸易市场结构，扩大工业制成品出口，鼓励企业利用比较优势，推进跨国经营，积极发展境外加工贸易。扬州市还通过积极参与国际合作与竞争，顺应了加入世界贸易组织的新形势，进一步开拓了国际市场。以上这些措施使得扬州市对外贸易在2006年至2010年五年间取得了一系列举世瞩目的成就。2006年以来，扬州市对外贸易自营出口保持较快增长，2006年实现进出口32.68亿美元，其中出口23.6亿美元，同比增长23.9%；2007年实现进出口44.59亿美元，其中出口32.5亿美元，同比增长37.7%；2008年实现进出口61.8亿美元，其中出口45.67亿美元，同比增长40.5%；2009年实现进出口54.3亿美元，其中出口40.13亿美元，同比下降12.1%；2010年上半年，实现进出口35.85亿美元，较2009年同期增长60.6%，其中出口27.16亿美元，增幅列全省第二（全省平均增长率为44.3%）。但长期以来，扬州市对外贸易在发展的同时，还存在产品结构调整步伐不够快，出口产品在国际上的竞争力不够强，对外贸易发展与苏南地区的一些城市相比还存在一定差距等问题。“十一五”期间，扬州市积极采取措施加快转变外贸增