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A Different Kind of “Westernization”(摩根大通中国通系列之20110111).pdf

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A Different Kind of “Westernization”(摩根大通中国通系列之20110111).pdf

1ADIFFERENTKINDOF“WESTERNIZATION”–AFIRSTHANDACCOUNTOFINLANDDEVELOPMENTINCHINATHECHINESENEWYEARHOLIDAYSWHICHFALLINEARLYFEBRUARYTHISYEARHAVECOMETOREPRESENTAPERIODOFPEAKLABORSHORTAGESFORCHINA’SCOASTALENTERPRISES,WITHMANYWORKERSRETURNINGHOMEATTHEENDOFTHEIRCONTRACTSANDCHOOSINGNOTTOCOMEBACKTHEUNDERLYINGREASONISTHATCOMPANIESTHEMSELVESHAVEBEENMIGRATINGTOTHEWESTERNREGIONSOFCHINAINRECENTYEARS,THUSGIVINGLABORERSTHECHOICEOFWORKINGCLOSERTOHOME,WHERELIVINGCOSTSANDHOUSINGPRICESARELOWERINRECENTWEEKS,WEVISITEDDOMESTICANDMULTINATIONALCOMPANIESINSHENZHENANDGUANGZHOUTWOFIRSTTIERCITIESINTHEPEARLRIVERDELTA,ANDINCHENGDU–THECAPITALOFSICHUANPROVINCEINSOUTHWESTCHINAOURDISCUSSIONSWITHTHECOMPANIESWHICHHAILEDFROMARANGEOF‘HIGHERTECH’INDUSTRIESINCLUDINGITSERVICES,INTERNET,SOFTWARE,TELECOMMUNICATIONSEQUIPMENT,PHARMACEUTICALSANDMEDICALEQUIPMENT–SEEAPPENDIX1FORASUMMARYPROVIDEDINSIGHTSINTOOPERATINGCONDITIONSINTHETWOREGIONS,ASWELLASTHEFACTORSTHATINFORMTHECHOICEOFLOCATIONFORBUSINESSESTHATRELYMOREHEAVILYONTHEAVAILABILITYOFHIGHSKILLEDLABOROURMEETINGSLEFTUSWITHTHEIMPRESSIONTHATBEYONDTHEOBVIOUSINFRASTRUCTURESTORYASSOCIATEDWITHWESTERNDEVELOPMENT,PRIVATESECTORGROWTH,ESPECIALLYINTHESERVICEINDUSTRY,ISALSOACCELERATINGINWESTERNCHINA,SUPPORTEDBYATTRACTIVEGOVERNMENTINCENTIVESANDTHEDESIREBYMANYCOMPANIESTOGAINPROXIMITYTOSTRONGREGIONALMARKETSIBENEFICIARIESOFWESTERNDEVELOPMENTTHETHEMEOFWESTERNDEVELOPMENTWILLCONTINUETOGAINTRACTIONOVERTHENEWFIVEYEARPLANPERIODDUETOMASSIVEINFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENTS,MANUFACTURINGRELOCATIONANDTHEDEVELOPMENTOFHIGHERVALUEADDEDINDUSTRIESSUPPORTEDBYSTRONGCENTRALANDLOCALGOVERNMENTINCENTIVESALTHOUGHTHEEXPANSIONOFHIGHTECHANDSERVICEINDUSTRIESISVERYMUCHEVIDENTINCHINA’SMAJORINLANDCITIES,ITISRAPIDIMPROVEMENTSINTRANSPORT,RESIDENTIALANDINDUSTRIALINFRASTRUCTURETHATHAVEFACILITATEDTHISDEVELOPMENTINTHISCONTEXT,WEBELIEVECONSTRUCTIONMATERIAL,RAILWAYCONSTRUCTION,LOGISTICSANDSERVICEPROVIDERS,RETAILANDPROPERTYDEVELOPMENTCOMPANIESWITHEXPOSURETOWESTERNCHINA,WILLBEMAJORBENEFICIARIESOFTHISTRENDSEEFIGURE1SQUARE6FORSOMEHIGHTECHENTERPRISES,THEINCENTIVETOEXPANDTOINNERPROVINCESCOMENOTONLYFROMCOSTREDUCTIONS,BUTMORESOFROMTHEEXPOSURETOLOCALMARKETSMINDRAYMRUSMEDICALANDZTE0763HKARESUCHEXAMPLESSQUARE6INADDITIONTOLOWERCOSTSANDGREATEREXPOSURE,COMPANIESAREALSOATTRACTEDBYAHOSTOFINCENTIVESOFFEREDBYGOVERNMENTSOFINNERPROVINCESTHESEINCLUDEPREFERENTIALTAXRATES,LANDGRANTS,ANDVARIOUSFORMSOFREBATESSQUARE6DESPITETHEPOTENTIALCOSTBENEFITSOFMOVINGINLAND,MOSTCOMPANIESWITHESTABLISHEDBASESOFOPERATIONINCOASTALCITIESARECONSIDERINGEXPANSION,BUTNOTOUTRIGHTRELOCATIONTHISISBECAUSETHECOASTALCITIESSTILLOFFERMUCHBETTERSUPPLYCHAININTEGRATIONASWELLASANEXPERIENCEDANDHIGHERCALIBERWORKFORCETHERELATIVELYLOWERLEVELOFENGLISHSKILLSANDADEEPERCULTURALDISCONNECTARESTILLIMPEDIMENTSTOOPERATINGPURELYFROMWITHININLANDCITIESHANDSONCHINAREPORTJANUARY11,2011JINGULRICHMANAGINGDIRECTOR,CHAIRMAN,CHINAEQUITIESCOMMODITIES85228008635JINGLULRICHJPMORGANCOMAMIRHOOSAIN85228008641AMIRHHOOSAINJPMORGANCOMBENJAMINWONG,CFA85228008932BENJAMINMCWONGJPMORGANCOMKELVINWONG85228008962KELVINXWONGJPMORGANCOM2JINGULRICHHANDSONCHINAREPORT–JANUARY11,2011COMPANYTICKERCODEJPMORGANRECOMMENDATIONCOMMENTSCONSTRUCTIONMATERIALCOVERINGANALYSTNICKLAIBBMG2009HKOVERWEIGHTCEMENTDEMANDOUTLOOKREMAINSROBUSTGIVENLARGEINFRASTRUCTURECONSTRUCTIONPLANSALSOMAJORBENEFICIARYOFLARGERAFFORDABLEHOUSINGTARGETSOF10MILLIONUNITSIN2011ANDONGOINGINDUSTRYCONSOLIDATIONRAILWAYCOVERINGANALYSTKARENLICCCCCRG1800HK1186HKNEUTRALOVERWEIGHTEXPOSURETOPOTENTIALLYHIGHERGOVERNMENTRAILWAYCAPEXFOR2011FASTTRACKINGDEVELOPMENTPLANSOF120,000KMOPERATINGLENGTHTO2015FROM2020OFWHICH50,000KMARETARGETEDFORTHEWESTERNREGIONTOTALRAILWAYCAPEXIN2010WASRMB709BILLIONWITH91,000KMCOMPLETEDPROPERTYCOVERINGANALYSTLUCIAKWONGCCLANDCRLANDLONGFORRF1224HK1109HK960HK2777HKNEUTRALNEUTRALOVERWEIGHTOVERWEIGHTBETTERAFFORDABILITYANDHIGHERINCOMEGROWTHRELATIVETOMAJORCOASTALCITIESDEMANDFORRESIDENTIALHOMESISLIKELYTOREMAINSTRONGWITHGREATERINFLUXOFFOREIGN,COASTALCITYWORKERSLANDBANKEXPOSURETOWESTERNREGIONIS100,34,36AND33RESPECTIVELYFIGURE1POTENTIALINVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSOFWESTERNDEVELOPMENTFIGURE1POTENTIALINVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSOFWESTERNDEVELOPMENTSOURCEJPMORGANRESEARCHTHEEXPANSIONOFPUBLICSECTORINFRASTRUCTUREPROJECTSINTHELASTTWOYEARSHELPEDTOTRIGGERASHORTAGEOFMIGRANTWORKERSONTHEEASTERNSEABOARDANDTHERESUMPTIONOFWAGEACCELERATION,WHICHINTURNFORCEDMANYCOMPANIESINLABORINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESTOMOVETHEIRBASEOFPRODUCTIONINTOTHEHINTERLANDAMONGTHESAMPLEOFCOMPANIESTHATWEMETWITH,WEFOUNDTHATCOSTBENEFITSWERENONUNIFORM,DEPENDINGHEAVILYONTHEAMOUNTOFLOWERENDMANUFACTURINGOPERATIONSWITHINEACHBUSINESSATONEENDOFTHESPECTRUM,ACOMPANYLIKETENCENT0700HK,KNOWNFORRECRUITINGEXPERIENCEDSOFTWAREDEVELOPERS,HASALMOSTNOINCENTIVETOEXPANDITSOPERATIONSINLANDHOWEVERSOMEINLANDCITIESARERISINGINIMPORTANCEASCENTERSOFLOWERCOSTSKILLEDLABOR–ANOFTCITEDEXAMPLEISCHENGDU,WHERETHEFRENCHCOMPUTERGAMEDEVELOPERUBISOFTUBIFRRECRUITSALARGENUMBEROFLOCALUNIVERSITYGRADUATESIICHINA’S“GOWEST”CAMPAIGN–FACTORSDRIVINGINLANDRELOCATIONANDEXPANSIONTHECHINESEGOVERNMENTINITIATEDITS“GOWEST”CAMPAIGNINMA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