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A Different Kind of “Westernization”(摩根大通中国通系列之20110111).pdf

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A Different Kind of “Westernization”(摩根大通中国通系列之20110111).pdf

1ADifferentKindofWesternization–aFirsthandAccountofInlandDevelopmentinChinaTheChineseNewYearholidayswhichfallinearlyFebruarythisyearhavecometorepresentaperiodofpeaklaborshortagesforChinascoastalenterprises,withmanyworkersreturninghomeattheendoftheircontractsandchoosingnottocomeback.TheunderlyingreasonisthatcompaniesthemselveshavebeenmigratingtothewesternregionsofChinainrecentyears,thusgivinglaborersthechoiceofworkingclosertohome,wherelivingcostsandhousingpricesarelower.Inrecentweeks,wevisiteddomesticandmultinationalcompaniesinShenzhenandGuangzhoutwofirsttiercitiesinthePearlRiverDelta,andinChengdu–thecapitalofSichuanprovinceinSouthwestChina.OurdiscussionswiththecompanieswhichhailedfromarangeofhighertechindustriesincludingITservices,internet,software,telecommunicationsequipment,pharmaceuticalsandmedicalequipment–seeAppendix1forasummaryprovidedinsightsintooperatingconditionsinthetworegions,aswellasthefactorsthatinformthechoiceoflocationforbusinessesthatrelymoreheavilyontheavailabilityofhighskilledlabor.OurmeetingsleftuswiththeimpressionthatbeyondtheobviousinfrastructurestoryassociatedwithWesterndevelopment,privatesectorgrowth,especiallyintheserviceindustry,isalsoacceleratinginWesternChina,supportedbyattractivegovernmentincentivesandthedesirebymanycompaniestogainproximitytostrongregionalmarkets.I.BeneficiariesofWesternDevelopmentThethemeofWesterndevelopmentwillcontinuetogaintractionoverthenewfiveyearplanperiodduetomassiveinfrastructureinvestments,manufacturingrelocationandthedevelopmentofhighervalueaddedindustriessupportedbystrongcentralandlocalgovernmentincentives.AlthoughtheexpansionofhightechandserviceindustriesisverymuchevidentinChinasmajorinlandcities,itisrapidimprovementsintransport,residentialandindustrialinfrastructurethathavefacilitatedthisdevelopment.Inthiscontext,webelieveconstructionmaterial,railwayconstruction,logisticsandserviceproviders,retailandpropertydevelopmentcompanieswithexposuretoWesternChina,willbemajorbeneficiariesofthistrendseeFigure1.square6Forsomehightechenterprises,theincentivetoexpandtoinnerprovincescomenotonlyfromcostreductions,butmoresofromtheexposuretolocalmarkets.MindrayMR.USMedicalandZTE0763.HKaresuchexamples.square6Inadditiontolowercostsandgreaterexposure,companiesarealsoattractedbyahostofincentivesofferedbygovernmentsofinnerprovinces.Theseincludepreferentialtaxrates,landgrants,andvariousformsofrebates.square6Despitethepotentialcostbenefitsofmovinginland,mostcompanieswithestablishedbasesofoperationincoastalcitiesareconsideringexpansion,butnotoutrightrelocation.Thisisbecausethecoastalcitiesstilloffermuchbettersupplychainintegrationaswellasanexperiencedandhighercaliberworkforce.TherelativelylowerlevelofEnglishskillsandadeeperculturaldisconnectarestillimpedimentstooperatingpurelyfromwithininlandcities.HANDSONCHINAREPORTJanuary11,2011JingUlrichManagingDirector,Chairman,ChinaEquitiesCommodities85228008635jing.l.ulrichjpmorgan.comAmirHoosain85228008641amir.h.hoosainjpmorgan.comBenjaminWong,CFA85228008932benjamin.mc.wongjpmorgan.comKelvinWong85228008962kelvin.x.wongjpmorgan.com2JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011CompanyTickercodeJ.P.MorganrecommendationCommentsConstructionmaterialCoveringanalystNickLaiBBMG2009.HKOverweightCementdemandoutlookremainsrobustgivenlargeinfrastructureconstructionplans.Alsomajorbeneficiaryoflargeraffordablehousingtargetsof10millionunitsin2011andongoingindustryconsolidation.RailwayCoveringanalystKarenLiCCCCCRG1800.HK1186.HKNeutralOverweightExposuretopotentiallyhighergovernmentrailwaycapexfor2011.Fasttrackingdevelopmentplansof120,000kmoperatinglengthto2015from2020ofwhich50,000kmaretargetedfortheWesternregion.Totalrailwaycapexin2010wasRMB709billionwith91,000kmcompleted.PropertyCoveringanalystLuciaKwongCCLandCRLandLongforRF1224.HK1109.HK960.HK2777.HKNeutralNeutralOverweightOverweightBetteraffordabilityandhigherincomegrowthrelativetomajorcoastalcities.Demandforresidentialhomesislikelytoremainstrongwithgreaterinfluxofforeign,coastalcityworkers.LandbankexposuretoWesternregionis100,34,36and33respectively.Figure1PotentialinvestmentimplicationsofWesternDevelopmentFigure1PotentialinvestmentimplicationsofWesternDevelopmentSourceJ.P.MorganResearchTheexpansionofpublicsectorinfrastructureprojectsinthelasttwoyearshelpedtotriggerashortageofmigrantworkersontheeasternseaboardandtheresumptionofwageacceleration,whichinturnforcedmanycompaniesinlaborintensiveindustriestomovetheirbaseofproductionintothehinterland.Amongthesampleofcompaniesthatwemetwith,wefoundthatcostbenefitswerenonuniform,dependingheavilyontheamountoflowerendmanufacturingoperationswithineachbusiness.Atoneendofthespectrum,acompanylikeTencent0700.HK,knownforrecruitingexperiencedsoftwaredevelopers,hasalmostnoincentivetoexpanditsoperationsinland.Howeversomeinlandcitiesarerisinginimportanceascentersoflowercostskilledlabor–anoftcitedexampleisChengdu,wheretheFrenchcomputergamedeveloperUbisoftUBI.FRrecruitsalargenumberoflocaluniversitygraduates.II.ChinasGoWestCampaign–factorsdrivinginlandrelocationandexpansionTheChinesegovernmentinitiateditsGoWestcampaigninMarch2000,withtheintentionofextendingthenationseconomicprosperitytoitspoorerwesternandcentralregions.Atthetimeoftheprogramsinception,theaverageannualpercapitaGDPinEasternprovinceswasRMB14,105,oralmost2.8timesthatoftheaverageWesternprovinceatRMB5,118.Throughimprovedtransportlinkages,inlandcitiesalsobenefitedfromtheexportprocessingboomthatoccurredonthecoast.Thecampaignhasachievedinitialsuccessinrecentyearswithevidencepointingtoagradualtransferofindustrialactivityfromthecoasttotheinland.In2005,secondaryindustriescontributiontotheWesternregionsGDPwas44.9,climbingsteadilyto47.9by2009.Meanwhile,theratioforcoastalprovincesfellslightlyfrom47.9to46.1butthedropwasconsiderablymoreapparentinBeijingandShanghai,wheretheratiofellfrom39.2to31.7seeFigure2a.Notsurprisingly,theoppositephenomenonwasobservedfortertiaryindustries,whichgrewatanacceleratedpaceinBeijingandShanghaifrom59.7to67.4,aswellasothercoastalprovincesfrom42.3to45.8,showinganexpansionofservicesindustriesastheireconomiesbecomemorematureseeFigure2b.3JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011SourceCEIC,J.P.MorganResearchFigure2bTertiaryindustryasacomponentofprovincialGDPFigure2bTertiaryindustryasacomponentofprovincialGDPFigure2aSecondaryindustryasacomponentofprovincialGDPFigure2aSecondaryindustryasacomponentofprovincialGDP3035404550BeijingShanghaiCoastalProvincesWesternProvinces20052009303540455055606570BeijingShanghaiCoastalProvincesWesternProvinces20052009ThisstructuralshiftineconomicdriversbetweencoastalandWesternprovincesishelpingtoreduceeconomicdisparities.AttheWesternDevelopmentprogramsinception,averageannualpercapitaGDPinEasternprovinceswasRMB14,105,oralmost2.8timesthatoftheaverageWesternprovinceatRMB5,118.Bytheendof2009,thegapinGDPpercapitahadnarrowedto2.3timesSeeFigure3.0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450005000020002001200220032004200520062007200820092.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.0EasternChinaRHSWesternChinaRHSRatioofEasttoWestLHSFigure3GDPpercapitabyregionRMBFigure3GDPpercapitabyregionRMBSourceCEICDisparitymayexistbetweendatafromprovincialandcentralstatisticsbureauTheWesterndevelopmentcampaignreturnedtothespotlightwithChinasRMB4trillionstimuluspackage,announcedinlate2009.Morerecentpolicydevelopments,suchastheprocessofresourcetaxreformmayalsobeseenaspartofabroaderpackageofsupport,inthattheyservetoenhance4JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011thefiscalpositionoftheresourcerichWesternregions.Whilelowerendmanufacturingandinfrastructureconstructionhavebeenpresumedthemaindriverofregionaldevelopment,moreadvancedmanufacturingandservicesindustriesarealsobeginningtoseeChinasinteriorasanattractiveinvestmentdestinationandbaseofoperations.Havingachievedameasureofsuccess,Chinaspolicymakersindicatedinmid2010thattheywouldextendtheWesternDevelopmentcampaignuntil2020.Attheendof2009,therewereonly2provincesinWesternChinawithGDPpercapitaabovethenationalmedianRMB21,777–InnerMongoliaatRMB40,282andChongqingatRMB22,920.Beingwellendowedinnaturalresources,InnerMongoliawasthebiggestcoalproducerinChinain2009.Chongqing,arapidlyurbanizingindustrialhublocatedneartheYangzteRiver,hasbenefitedfromthebiggestincreaseininboundFDIamongallprovincestotalingUS4billionin2009.MeanwhilethepercapitaGDPforChinaseightWesternmostprovincesstoodbelowRMB20,000in2009,withYunan,GansuandGuizhoueachbelowRMB15,000seeFigure4.3ZhejiangHeilongjiangJilinLiaoningHebeiTianjinShandongHenanAnhuiJiangsuJiangxiFujianGuangdongHunanHubeiHainanBeijingShanghaiInnerMongoliaShanxiGuangxiYunnanGuizhouSichuanShaanxiNingxiaGansuQinghaiTibetXinjiangChongqingGDPpercapitalRMB60,000–80,00040,000–60,00020,000–40,0000–20,000Figure4ChinasGDPpercapitadistributionRMBin2009,WesternprovincesoutlinedinboldFigure4ChinasGDPpercapitadistributionRMBin2009,WesternprovincesoutlinedinboldSourceCEICEasternprovincesincludeBeijing,Fujian,Guangdong,Hainan,Hebei,Jiangsu,Liaoning,Shandong,Shanghai,Tianjin,ZhejiangCentralprovincesincludeAnhui,Heilongjiang,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,JilinWesternprovincesincludeChongqing,Gansu,Guizhou,Guangxi,InnerMongolia,Ningxia,Qinghai,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Sichuan,Tibet,Xinjiang,Yunan5JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011III.TheAttractionofInlandCitiesInrecentyearsmanyinternationalandhomegrownmultinationalssuchasIntelINTC.US,DellDELL.US,Foxconn2317.TWandLenovo0992.HKhaveexpandedtheiroperationsintoCentralandWesternChinaseeFigure5CompanyCityPlannedoractualinvestmentsUSmnPurposeFoxconnTPE2317Chengdu2000plannedNewplantsIntelNASDAQINTCChengdu600NewplantsDellNASDAQDELLChengduNodetailsOperationcentermanufacturing,salesandservicesLenovoHKG0992Chengdu100BusinesscenterAcerTPE2353Chongqing150ITmanufacturingcenterGoodmanASXGMGVarious300SetuplogisticparksinwesternChinaFordNYSEFChongqing490BuildthirdassemblyVolkswagenETRVOWChengdu735NewplantsFigure5ReportedinvestmentsfromlargecompaniesintoWesternregionsince2009SourceJ.P.MorganThefollowingpullfactorswerecitedfrequentlyduringourmeetingssquare6Laborcostadvantagesweretheprimaryattractionforcompaniesrelocatingfrommajorcoastalcities.Forexample,theofficialminimumwageinSichuanwasRMB860permonthin2010,approximately20lowerthanRMB9601120inmajorcoastalregions.Attheindustrylevel,wagedisparitiescanbemoresubstantial.WiproWIT.UScitedlaborcostdifferentialsof3540betweenChengduandShanghai.Withlaborrepresentingupto7080ofservicescompaniestotalcosts,theinlandlaborcostadvantagecanhavesignificantimplicationsforprofitability.SourcePhotonics,anAmericantelecommunicationequipmentmanufacturer,indicatedthatlaborcostsavingsformanufacturingstaffcouldbeashighas30.Manycompanies,however,seethelaborcostadvantagegraduallydiminishing.OfficialdatacorroboratethistrendwithminimumwagesinCentralandWesternprovincesgrowingatafasterrate.Minimumwagesgrewat25CAGRoverthelast5yearsinSichuan,comparedto1012inBeijing,ShanghaiandShenzhenand24inGuangdong.square6Strongcentralandlocalgovernmentincentivesarealsoamajordrawforcompaniesconsideringrelocation.Manyincentivesofferedatthecentral,provincialandcitylevelforindustriessuchashighvalueaddedmanufacturing,ITsoftwareservicesandfinancialscanbringmeaningfulbenefitstoacompanysbottomline.ThekeypreferentialpoliciesmentionedduringourmeetingsinChengduincludedEnterprisesinvestinginWesternprovincesmaybenefitfromaconcessionarycorporateincometaxrateof15vs.aregularcorporateincometaxrateof25.Duringthefirst5yearsofoperation,20100ofindividualincometaxpaymentformanagerialandtechnicalstaffwillberefunded.Concessionaryrateonindustriallandpurchasesorrentalsubsidies.6JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011ConcessionaryratesforemployeeaccommodationSubsidiesforrecruitinganddevelopinglocaltalent.Upto70oflocaltaxrefundedtosupportRDinitiativesforlargelocaltaxpayers,withatermof5years.Manyofthelocalincentivesareofferedtocompaniesonnegotiatedterms,dependingontheircontributiontothelocaleconomy.AccordingtoseveralmediumtolargecompanieslocatedinChengduhitechzone,localhiringincentivescanamounttoasmuchas2monthsofanaverageworkerswageonefifthoftrainingexpensesmaybereimbursedandupto10ofsocialsecuritycontributionsfromcompaniescanberebated.Companiesthatpurchasedindustriallandatconcessionratestobuildtheirfactoriesalsobenefitsubstantiallyfromappreciatinglandprices.Otherthancommercialincentives,localgovernmentsarealsoprovidingotherformsofsupportsuchasconvenientrentalaccommodationforstaffandimprovingconnectivitytotheregion.ForexampleWiproWIT.USsuccessfullynegotiatedwiththeChengdugovernmenttobeginadirectflighttoBangalore,whichcuttravelingtimefrom10hourstoaround5hours.square6Availabilityoflaborsupply,bothintermsofwhiteandbluecollarworkersinWesternregions.AlmostallcompanieswespoketoinChengducitedthelargesupplyofeducatedworkersasamajorattraction.AccordingtotheinvestmentservicebureauinChengdu,thereare15.5millionresidentsinthecitywithtertiaryqualifications,thefourthhighestamongChinesecities.Everyyear100,000universitygraduatesentertheworkforcefromthecitys42highereducationinstitutes.SynnexSNX.US,aUSlistedbusinessprocessoutsourcingserviceprovider,forexample,hiresfreshuniversitygraduateswithEnglishdegreeseveryyeartoperformbackofficefunctionsfortheirUSandEuropeancustomers.SeveralcompaniesalsocitedagreatereagernessbyworkerstoseekemploymentinWesternregions.AccordingtoasurveybyChinaYouthDailythatcoveredmorethan7700colleaguegraduatesin2009,athirdofallgraduateswishtomovetoaprovincialcapitalorwelldevelopedsmallercities,while25wishtostayinbigcitiessuchasBeijingandShanghai.Similartrendshavebeenreportedamongbluecollarworkers,whoincreasinglyfavorlocationswherelivingcostsaremoreaffordable.Overthecourseof2009,thepopulationofmigrantworkersfromWesternprovinceswhowereworkingoutsidetheregiondeclinedby1.8millionto34.4million.square6CapturingdomesticmarketopportunitiesmostofthecompanieswemethaveyettoderivesizablerevenuefromWesternChina,butallacknowledgedthemediumandlongtermpotentialoftheregionalmarket.WiproWIT.USforexamplestatedthatsomeoftheirMNCclientshaveestablishedofficesinWesternChinaandsomeareinprocessofdoingduediligence.MindrayMR.USMedicalisanexample.MindrayMR.USspecializesinsupplyingmedicaldevices,exporting60ofsales,whilesupplyingtheremaining40todomestichospitals.60ofexportsaleshasbeenU.S.bound,withtheremainingtoemergingmarkets.Inmorematuremarkets,MindrayMR.USemploysadirectsalesmodelinothermarkets,mostnotablyChina,ithasbeennecessaryforMindrayMR.UStodevelopanextensivedistributionnetwork.Assuch,ithasbeencrucialforMindrayMR.UStounderstandthegeographicaldifferencesofitsdomesticclienteleinordertotailoritsmarketinganddevelopmenteffortstosuitlocalusers.Withlaborconstitutingonly7oftotalcosts,themajorimpetusforMindrayMR.UStoexpandinlandhasbeentobetterpenetratetheChinesemarket.ThisexplainswhymanufacturinghaslargelyremainedinShenzhen,wherethesupplychainismuchbetterintegrated.Toreducecosts,MindrayMR.UShasamanufacturingcenterinNanjingthatproducessurgerytablesandlamps,whicharelesscomplexproducts.RDiscurrentlyfocusedinBeijing,whileShanghaiisatopstrategicpriorityforthecompanyinwhichtosetupanoffice.Xianisalsobeingconsideredasasitefordomesticexpansion.7JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011AnotherexampleisZTE0763.HK,whichhasRDcentersinBeijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Chengdu,Xian,Tianjin,Nanjing,Sanya,andChongqing,inadditionto3centersintheU.S.andoneineachofPakistan,India,andSweden.TheRDcentersinChinawereplannedtosatisfystrategicpurposes,whilemanufacturingoperationswillcontinuetoresideinShenzhenandGuangdonginlightofthehigherlevelofverticalintegration,andavailabilityofhighlyskilledstaff.IV.FactorsDeterringRelocationtoWesternChinaDespitetheadvantagesofWesternChinaasaproductionbase,thehollowingoutofindustrialactivityincoastalcitiesisanunlikelyscenario.CompleterelocationtoWesternChinamaybringsubstantialbenefitstocertaincompanies,butmanycompaniesmerelywishtoincreasetheirexposuretotheregionandstillotherbusinessesseenoimmediatebenefittoWesternexpansionatthisstageduetosuchfactorsassquare6Difficultyinreorganizingsupplychainclusters–especiallyforcompaniesthatmanufacturemoresophisticatedproductsfromanestablishedcoastalbaseandrequirehighlevelsofcoordinationbetweensupplierandcustomers.ZTE0763.HKregardsupanddownstreamintegrationtobeanessentialelementinmaintainingtheircompetitiveadvantage.Forthisreason,theychosetoretaintheircoremanufacturingoperationsinShenzhenandGuangdong,butmanagementhasbeenopentoconsiderinlandcitieswhensettingupRDcenters.square6Smalllaborcostdifferentialforskilledemployees.Companiesoperatinginadvancedmanufacturingandserviceindustriesoftenstruggletofindanexperiencedtalentpoolinsecondarylocations.Upto20ofthestaffatseveralcompanieswemetinChengduwereexpatriatesordomesticmigrants.Theseseniorstaffmembersandotherswithspecialistskillsdemandasignificantpremiumtotheiroriginalsalarywhenrelocating.Amongthecompanieswevisited,UbisoftUBI.FRandTencent0700.HK–twocompanieswithnomanufacturingoperations–exhibitedtheweakestintentiontomoveinland.Forexperiencedandskilledseniorlabor,UbisoftUBI.FRandTencent0700.HKbothexpressedthatsuchatalentpoolonlyexistsinthetieronecities,notablyShanghaiforgamedevelopment.square6Favorabletieswithlocalgovernment.Mostofthecompanieswemetwithcitedestablishedtieswithlocalgovernmentsasamajordeterrenttorelocating.Localgovernmentswithlongstandingrelationshipsarealsomoreawareofcompanyrequirements,andwouldtaketheseintoconsiderationwhennegotiatinglegislationwiththecentralgovernment.square6Languageandculture.Englishcompetencyremainsoneofthehurdlestorelocatinginland,asthemuchsmallerpresenceofoverseasreturneesandforeignersmeansthatworkerswithacombinationoftechnicalandEnglishskillsarehardertofind.8JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011AppendixProfilesofcompaniesvisitedAppendixProfilesofcompaniesvisitedSourceBloomberg,companywebsitesCompanyListingdetailsAnnualsalesin2009MarketcapitalizationmillionNumberofemployeesHQandmainofficesKeyproductandserviceofferingsUbisoftParisStockExchangeUBIFP€1057.9millionUS7856,400MontreuilsousBois,France.Owns23inhouseproductionstudiosarelocatedin17countriesAleadingcreator,publisheranddistributorofvideogames,Ubisofthasgrownconsiderablyoverthepasttwodecadesasaresultofourstrategycenteredonthecreationofstrongbrands,inhousedevelopment,andavastglobaldistributionnetwork.SourcePhotonicsPrivateN/AN/A4,000California,USA.TaiwanandChinamakeupmostoftheemployeesLeadingproviderofopticalcommunicationproductsusedintelecommunicationsystemsanddatacommunicationnetworks.MolexNASDAQMOLXLondonStockExchangeMOLXAUS2.6billionUS3,75033,000Illinois,USA.Molexmanufacturesitsproductsin59plantsthatarestrategicallylocatedacrossAsia,EuropeandNorthAmericaKeyofferingsincludethedesign,developmentanddistributionofinnovativeproductincludingeverythingfromelectronic,electricalandfiberopticinterconnectstoswitchesandapplicationtooling.SynnexNYSESNXUS7.7billionUS1,1387,000California,USA.ThecompanyprovidesoutsourcingservicesinITdistribution,contractassembly,logisticsmanagementandbusinessprocessoutsourcing.SYNNEXdistributesITsystems,peripherals,systemcomponents,softwareandnetworkingequipmentforOEMsuppliers.WiproNYSEWITUS5.6billionUS38,349108,000Bangalore,India.AglobalITservicescompanythatprovidesConsulting,BusinessProcessOutsourcing,BusinessTechnologyServices,EnterpriseApplicationServices,InfrastructureManagement,Testing,ProductEngineering,EngineeringDesignandProductSupport.OurservicTencentHKSE700HK14.1billionHK326,57610,000Shenzhen,ChinaProvidesvalueaddedInternet,mobileandtelecomservicesandonlineadvertisingunderthestrategicgoalofprovidinguserswithonestoponlinelifestyleservices.MindrayNYSEMRUS634.2millionUS3,1855,800Shenzhen,ChinaAleadingdeveloper,manufacturerandmarketerofmedicaldevicesinChinawitharapidlygrowinginternationalpresence.Bsinesssegmentsincludepatientmonitoringandlifesupportproducts,invitrodiagnosticproductsandmedicalimagingsystemsZTEHKSE763SZA000063HK68.4billiionHK91,68870,000Shenzhen,ChinaLeadingglobalprovideroftelecomequipmentandnetworkingsolutionsoperatinginmorethan140countries.Itoffersawidechoiceofproductsrangingfromvoice,data,multimediaandwirelessbroadbandservices.GuangzhouShipyardHKSE317SZA600685HK7.4billionHK13,2823,429Guangzhou,ChinaGSIisbasedoncoreoperationsofshipbuildingandfocusedonbuildingandexploitationofhandysizeships.GuangzhouPharmaHKSE874SZA600332HK4.3billionHK18,0615,352Guangzhou,ChinaItisprincipallyengagedinthemanufacturingandsalesofChinesepatentmedicineandwesternpharmaceuticalproductsincludingtheresearch,development,manufacturing,sales,exportandimportofChinesemedicine,westernpharmaceuticalproducts,medicalapparatusandhygienicmaterials9JingUlrichHANDSONCHINAREPORT–January11,2011DisclaimerJ.P.MorganisamarketingnameforinvestmentbankingbusinessesofJPMorganChaseCo.anditssubsidiariesworldwide.JPMorganChaseCo.oranyofitsaffiliatescollectively,J.P.Morganmakesnorepresentationorwarrantyregardingtheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationherein.J.P.Morganisnotanadvisortoanypersoninrespectofanyreferencedtransaction.ThismaterialisnottheproductofJ.P.MorgansresearchdepartmentsandalongwithanyassociatedverbalpresentationtogetherthePresentationispurelyindicativeandisbasedoncurrentassumptionsandmarketconditions.Althoughinformationcontainedhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourceswhichwebelievetobereliable,noneofJ.P.Morgan,noranypersonactingontheirbehalf,makesanyrepresentationorwarranty,impliedorexpressregardingtheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationcontainedherein.ThePresentationisnotintendedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyfinancialinstrument,nordoesitconstituteacommitmentbyJ.P.MorgantoenterintoanytransactionreferredtointhePresentation.J.P.MorganshallincurnoresponsibilityorliabilitywhatsoevertotheclientortoanyotherpersoninrespectofthePresentationandintheeventthatJ.P.MorganentersintoanytransactiondescribedinthePresentationthensuchtransactionshallbegovernedexclusivelybytherelevanttransactiondocuments.Therecipientmustmakeanindependentassessmentofanylegal,credit,tax,regulatoryandaccountingissuesanddeterminewithitsownprofessionaladvisorsanysuitabilityorappropriatenessimplicationsofanytransactionreferencedhereininthecontextofitsparticularcircumstances.J.P.Morganassumesnoresponsibilityorliabilitywhatsoevertoanypersoninrespectofsuchmatters.Thismaterialisdirectedexclusivelyatmarketprofessionalsandinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotfordistributioninanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributioncontravenesapplicablelawsofanyrelevantjurisdiction,norcoulditbedistributedtoanyotherpersonorreplicatedinanyformwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofJ.P.Morgan.NotwithstandinganypriorwrittenconsentprovidedbyJ.P.Morganforthefurtherdistributionorreplicationofthesematerialsandasconsiderationtherefore,theinitialrecipientofthesematerialsacknowledgestoJ.P.MorganthatitshallholdJ.P.Morganharmlessfortheconsequencesofsuchfurtherdistributionorreplicationasthecasemaybe.Copyright2010JPMorganChaseCo.Allrightsreserved.Additionalinformationisavailableuponrequest.

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