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语言文化论文-AGING AND PRODUCTIVITY AMONG ECONOMISTS.doc

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语言文化论文-AGING AND PRODUCTIVITY AMONG ECONOMISTS.doc

语言文化论文AGINGANDPRODUCTIVITYAMONGECONOMISTSABSTRACTECONOMISTSPRODUCTIVITYOVERTHEIRCAREERSANDASMEASUREDBYPUBLICATIONINLEADINGJOURNALSDECLINESVERYSHARPLYWITHAGETHEREISNODIFFERENCEBYAGEINTHEPROBABILITYTHATANARTICLESUBMITTEDTOALEADINGJOURNALWILLBEACCEPTEDRATESOFDECLININGPRODUCTIVITYARENOGREATERAMONGTHEVERYTOPPUBLISHERSTHANAMONGOTHERS,ANDTHEPROBABILITYOFACCEPTANCEISINCREASINGLYRELATEDTOTHEAUTHORSQUALITYRATHERTHANTHEAUTHORSAGEITISWELLKNOWNTHATPRODUCTIVITYDECLINESWITHAGEINAWIDERANGEOFACTIVITIESLEHMAN1953SUGGESTSANEARLYPEAKINPRODUCTIVITYINAVARIETYOFSCIENTIFICANDARTISTICENDEAVORS,ANDDIAMOND1986DOCUMENTSTHEPATTERNFORSEVERALSCHOLARLYPURSUITSLEVINANDSTEPHAN1992PROVIDECLEAREVIDENCETHATTHISDECLINEEXISTSEVENAFTERCAREFULATTEMPTSTOACCOUNTFORINDIVIDUALANDCOHORTDIFFERENCESFAIR1994FINDSDECLINESINPHYSICALABILITYAMONGELITERUNNERS,ASDOESLYDALL1968,PP113PASSIMINPHYSICALABILITIESOFTHEPOPULATIONGENERALLYINTHISSTUDYWEEXAMINEPRODUCTIVITYDECLINESINOUROWNFIELDTHEMAINNEWRESULTSARISEFROMOURUSEOFTWODIFFERENTTYPESOFINFORMATION,THEEQUIVALENTOFHOUSEHOLDANDESTABLISHMENTDATA,TOSTUDYTHESTONEFIELDOVERESSENTIALLYTHESAMEPERIODOFTIMESECTIONIDISCUSSESTHEGENERALRESULTSONAGINGANDPRODUCTIVITY,WHEREASSECTIONIIPRESENTSEVIDENCEOFTHEIMPORTANCEOFHETEROGENEITYIDECLININGPRODUCTIVITYWITHAGEUSINGTHEAMERICANECONOMICASSOCIATIONAEADIRECTORYOFMEMBERS,WEIDENTIFIEDTENUREDECONOMICSFACULTYAT17TOPRESEARCHINSTITUTIONSANDOBTAINEDTHEYEARSOFTHEIRPHDDEGREES1WITHTHECITATIONINDEXOFTHEJOURNALOFECONOMICLITERATUREWEREPLICATEDPORTIONSOFTHECURRICALAVITAEOFEACHOFTHE208ECONOMISTSCURRENTLYINTHEECONOMICSDEPARTMENTSOFTHOSEINSTITUTIONSWHORECEIVEDPHDDEGREESBETWEEN1959AND19832TOMEASUREPRODUCTIVITYWECONSTRUCTTHREEINDEXES,COMBININGPAPERSPUBLISHEDINREFEREEDJOURNALSPRIORRESEARCHSUGGESTSTHAT,ATLEASTINTERMSOFSALARYDETERMINATION,THERETURNSFROMNONREFERREDPUBLICATIONSAREQUITELOWSAUER1988,SOTHATWEIGNORESUCHPUBLICATIONSINCALCULATINGTHESEMEASURESI1WEIGHTSANARTICLEBYTHEJOURNALWHEREITAPPEARSBASEDONCITATIONSTOTHATJOURNAL,USINGVALUESGENERATEDBYLABANDANDPIETTE1994THISINDEXDISTINGUISHESSTRONGLYAMONGJOURNALSFOREXAMPLE,THEJOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMYHASAWEIGHTOF591,WHEREASECONOMICINQUIRYHASAWEIGHTOF79INCONSTRUCTINGI1WEUSETHEWEIGHTSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEDECADEINWHICHTHEARTICLESWEREPUBLISHEDI2DISTINGUISHESSOMEWHATLESSAMONGJOURNALSBYASSIGNINGALLARTICLESINTHENINECOREJOURNALSIDENTIFIEDBYLABANDANDPIETTEAVALUEOF1,WHEREASALLOTHERJOURNALSAREVALUEDAT053FINALLY,I3GIVESALLPAPERSAWEIGHTOF1COAUTHOREDARTICLESWEREGIVENHALFCREDIT,CONSISTENTWITHSAUERS1988FINDINGSONTHEECONOMICRETURNSTOCOAUTHORSHIP4WEMEASURETHECHANGEINPRODUCTIVITYOVERTHELIFECYCLEBYTHEPERCENTAGECHANGEINTHENUMBEROFPUBLICATIONSFROM910YEARSPASTTHEPHDTOTHEPERIODS1415YEARSANDTHEN1920YEARSAFTERFORMOSTOFTHEELITEECONOMISTSTHEBASEPERIODISEQUIVALENTACCOUNTINGFORPUBLICATIONLAGSTOTHETIMEOFTENURE,WHENONEMIGHTEXPECTTHATINCENTIVESTOPRODUCEAREATAPEAKUSINGTWOYEARPUBLICATIONRECORDSATEACHPOINTREDUCESTHEEFFECTSOFNOISEINTHEPERFORMANCEMEASURESONEMIGHTARGUETHATSTILLOTHERSCIENTIFICLIFECYCLEMILEPOSTSEG,ATTAININGAFULLPROFESSORSHIPSHOULDBEACCOUNTEDFORTOOANDTOSOMEEXTENTTHE1415YEARPOINTDOESTHISBUTOURMAINPURPOSEISSIMPLYTOPROVIDEDETAILEDEVIDENCEONTHERELATIONSHIPTOAGE,ANDOURDATAARENOTSUFFICIENTTOINFERTHEIMPACTOFEVERYPOSSIBLEMILEPOSTTABLE1CONTAINSDATAONPRODUCTIVITYLOSSBYPHDVINTAGEMEASUREDBYEACHOFTHETHREEINDEXESIFWECONSIDERI1ANDI2,THETWOINDEXESTHATTAKEJOURNALQUALITYINTOACCOUNT,THEDECLINEAPPEARSTOBEQUITESUBSTANTIALBETWEENYEARS910AND1415ELITEECONOMISTSASAGROUPLOSE29TO32OFTHEIROUTPUTFROMYEARS910TO1920THEYLOSE54TO60INOTHERWORDS,PRODUCTIVITYLOSSESAREONTHEORDEROF5PERYEARFROMTHETIMEOFPEAKPRODUCTIVITYHOWEVER,THELOSSESDONOTAPPEARTOACCELERATEOVERTHESE10YEARSOFTHEECONOMISTSWORKLIVESTHELOSSFROMYEAR10TOYEAR20ISAPPROXIMATELYTWICETHATFROMYEAR10TOYEAR15ANOTHERWAYTOSTUDYTHEAGEPRODUCTIVITYRELATIONSHIPISTOEXAMINEJOURNALSRATHERTHANINDIVIDUALSTHEFIRSTROWINEACHPAIROFYEARSINTABLE2SHOWSTHEAGESOFAUTHORSOFFULLLENGTHREFEREEDARTICLESINSEVERALLEADINGJOURNALSAMERICANECONOMICREVIEW,JOURNALOFPOLITICALECONOMY,ANDQUARTERLYJOURNALOFECONOMICS5THEMEDIANAGEOFAUTHORSINTHE1980SAND1990SWAS36SCHOLARSOVERAGE50WHENTHEIRSTUDIESAREPUBLISHEDAREAMINUTEFRACTIONOFALLAUTHORSINTHESEJOURNALSCREATIVEECONOMICSATTHEHIGHESTLEVELSISMAINLYFORTHEYOUNGTHATISASTRUEINTHE1990SASITWASINTHE1960S,ALTHOUGHTHEAGEDISTRIBUTIONOFAUTHORSDOESSEEMTOHAVESHIFTEDSLIGHTLYRIGHTWARDINTHELATE1970STHESECONDROWINEACHPAIRINTABLE2SHOWSTHEAGEDISTRIBUTIONSOFRANDOMSAMPLESOFTHEMEMBERSHIPOFTHEAMERICANECONOMICASSOCIATIONINYEARSNEARTHOSEFORWHICHTHEAUTHORSAGESWERETABULATED6THEDISTRIBUTIONSAREHEAVILYCONCENTRATEDBETWEEN36AND50DECADALVARIATIONSREFLECTRAPIDEXPANSIONOFAMERICANUNIVERSITIESINTHEMIDDLEANDLATE1960S,STAGNATIONINTHE1970SANDMUCHOFTHE1980S,ANDAPOSSIBLEFRAGMENTATIONOFTHEPROFESSIONINTHE1980SASSPECIALIZEDASSOCIATIONSEXPANDEDASUBSTANTIALPERCENTAGEOFAEAMEMBERSISOVERAGE50IMPLYINGTHATOLDERECONOMISTSAREGREATLYUNDERREPRESENTEDAMONGAUTHORSINMAJORJOURNALSRELATIVETOTHEIRPRESENCEAMONGTHOSEWHOVIEWTHEMSELVESASPARTOFTHEECONOMICSPROFESSION7AMONGTHESEVERALGROUPSOFPHYSICALSCIENTISTSANALYZEDBYLEVINANDSTEPHAN1992THEDECLINEOFPRODUCTIVITYHIGHQUALITYPUBLISHINGWITHAGEWASVERYPRONOUNCEDMCDOWELLS1982SMALLSAMPLESOFSCHOLARSINAVARIETYOFDISCIPLINESSUGGESTLESSRAPIDDECLINESINPRODUCTIVITYWITHAGEINPUBLICATIONSUNWEIGHTEDBYQUALITY,WITHTHESHARPESTDECLINESANDEARLIESTPEAKSINTHEHARDSCIENCES,ANDLATERPEAKSAMONGENGLISHPROFESSORSANDHISTORIANSTHEEVIDENCEFROMOURTWOVERYDIFFERENTTYPESOFSAMPLESOFECONOMISTSANDECONOMICSPUBLISHINGTHATACCOUNTFORTHEQUALITYOFPUBLICATIONSSUGGESTSTHAT,FORWHATEVERREASON,ECONOMICSISATLEASTASMUCHAYOUNGPERSONSGAMEASARETHEPHYSICALSCIENCESIIHETEROGENEITYINDECLININGPRODUCTIVITYTHEEVIDENCEINSECTIONIDOCUMENTSTHEDECLINEINPRODUCTIVITYATTHESAMPLEMEANSINFORMATIONONTHEAGEPRODUCTIVITYRELATIONSHIPATTHEEXTREMESOFTHESAMPLEISINTERESTINGINITSOWNRIGHTANDMIGHTHELPSHEDSOMELIGHTONTHEPOSSIBLECAUSESOFTHEAPPARENTDECLINEINPRODUCTIVITYWITHAGETHESIMPLESTTESTCOMPARESPRODUCTIVITYLOSSESAMONGTHETOPEARLYPERFORMERSWITHTHATOFTHEENTIRESAMPLEOFECONOMISTSATELITEINSTITUTIONSAMONGTHETOP10OFEARLYPRODUCERSTHEMEANVALUESOFI1,I2,ANDI3ATYEAR20WERE64,50,AND22,RESPECTIVELYTHESEMEANSAREQUITECLOSETOTHOSELISTEDFORTHEENTIRESAMPLEINTABLE1THUSONAVERAGEEARLYPROMISESEEMSTOBESUSTAINEDINTHISSAMPLEOFTHE12TOPRESEARCHERSONWHOMWEHAVE20YEARSOFDATA,FIVEWERESTILLAMONGTHETOPDOZENPRODUCERSATYEAR20THESECONCLUSIONSARECONFIRMEDWHENWEEXAMINETHEENTIRESAMPLEFOREACHINDEXIJ,J1,2,3,WEESTIMATEB0ANDB1INMULTIPLELINEEQUATIONSCANNOTBEREPRESENTEDINASCIITEXT1TABLE3REPORTSTHEPARAMETERESTIMATESFORALLTHREEINDEXESPRODUCTIVITYINYEAR20ISPOSITIVELYANDSIGNIFICANTLYRELATEDTOPRODUCTIVITYINYEAR10THEREISALSOSUBSTANTIALPRODUCTIVITYLOSSTHEJOINTHYPOTHESISTHATB01ANDB10IE,NOPRODUCTIVITYLOSSISREJECTEDFSTATISTICSOF134,152,AND39,RESPECTIVELYPRODUCTIVITYLOSSISLEASTSEVEREINI3,WHICHWEIGHTSALLJOURNALSEQUALLY,REGARDLESSOFQUALITYIFPRODUCTIVITYLOSSESWERELESSAMONGECONOMISTSWITHHIGHEARLYPRODUCTIVITYHIGHIJ,10,B1WOULDBENEGATIVEINFACT,FORTWOOFTHETHREEINDEXESTHEESTIMATEDB1ISEFFECTIVELYZEROWECANNOTREJECTTHEHYPOTHESISOFALINEARRELATIONSHIPBETWEENLATEANDEARLYPRODUCTIVITYONLYFORI3DOESITAPPEARTHATPRODUCTIVITYLOSSISHIGHERFORTOPEARLYPRODUCERS,ANDEVENHERETHEEFFECTISQUITESMALLANECONOMISTINTHETOP10OFTHISSAMPLEATYEAR10LOSESONLYANADDITIONAL05UNWEIGHTEDPAPERCOMPAREDTOANAVERAGERESEARCHERINTHISSAMPLEATYEAR10THEVERYTOPPRODUCERSINTHISELITESAMPLEKEEPONPRODUCINGHIGHQUALITYRESEARCH,BUTATASLOWERRATETHOSEWHOWERENOTATTHETOPEARLYINTHEIRCAREERSSLOWDOWNASRAPIDLYASTHETOPPEOPLE,BUTTHEIRSLOWDOWNLEADSTHEMTOPUBLISHINCREASINGLYINLOWERQUALITYOUTLETSANOTHERWAYOFEXAMININGHETEROGENEITYISTOLOOKATHOWAUTHORSOFDIFFERENTQUALITYFREEINTHEPUBLICATIONPROCESSCONDITIONALONTHEIREFFORTSWEOBTAINEDDATAONARANDOMSAMPLEOFINITIALSUBMISSIONSTOAMAJORGENERALJOURNALDURINGAFOURMONTHPERIODIN1991SOMEOFTHEDATAWEREINITIALLYSUPPLIEDBYTHEJOURNALSOFFICEFORUSEINHAMERMESH1994REFEREEINGATTHISJOURNALISDOUBLEBLIND,SOTHATTHECHANCETHATREFEREESTHOUGHPOSSIBLYNOTTHEEDITORSWEREAFFECTEDBYAUTHORSREPUTATIONSISREDUCEDTHEAGESOFTHEAUTHORSOFTHESE313PAPERSAREMEASUREDASOF1993TOACCOUNTFORTHEPROBABLETWOYEARAVERAGELAGBETWEENTHESUBMISSIONOFAPAPERANDITSPUBLICATIONTHESIMPLEFACTINTHESEADDITIONALDATAISTHATACCEPTANCERATESATTHISJOURNALAREREMARKABLYCONSTANTBYAUTHORSAGETHEPROBABILITIESOFANARTICLEBEINGACCEPTEDARE0122,0114,AND0123INTHETHREEAGEGROUPS/35,3650,AND50,RESPECTIVELY8ONAVERAGETHEREISNODECLINEWITHAGEINTHEACCEPTANCERATEOFPAPERSSUBMITTEDTOTHISJOURNAL9PROBITSONTHEACCEPTANCEOFASUBMISSIONTHATALSOINCLUDEDVARIABLESINDICATINGWHETHERTHEAUTHORWASAMEMBEROFTHEAEA,WASINATOP20DEPARTMENTASLISTEDINBLANK,1991,WASRESIDENTINNORTHAMERICA,ORWASFEMALE,ANDTHEAUTHORSPRIORCITATIONRECORDYIELDANIDENTICALCONCLUSIONTHEDECLININGPRESENCEOFOLDERAUTHORSINTOPECONOMICSJOURNALSDOESNOTOCCURBECAUSEOLDERAUTHORSWHOKEEPSUBMITTINGPAPERSSUFFERHIGHERREJECTIONRATESTHEPROBITSINCLUDEDINTERACTIONTERMSBETWEENINDICATORVARIABLESFORAGEANDTHEEXTENTOFCITATIONSLOWCITEDECONOMISTSWEREDEFINEDASTHOSEWITHFEWERTHAN10CITATIONSPERYEAR,WELLCITEDWITHATLEAST10ASFIGURE1CLEARLYSHOWS,ACCEPTANCERATESFOREACHAGEGROUPDIFFERSHARPLYBYCITATIONSTATUSCOMPARINGAUTHORSAGE3650TOTHOSEOVER50,ITISQUITECLEARTHATTHEDEGREEOFHETEROGENEITYINCREASESWITHAGETHISAPPEARSTOBELESSTRUEINCOMPARINGTHEOLDESTTOTHEYOUNGESTGROUP,BUTTHATINFERENCEISDUEMAINLYTOAVERYSMALLSAMPLEONLYSIXAUTHORSUNDERAGE36,THEFUTURESUPERSTARSOFTHEPROFESSION,WEREWELLCITEDTHEGENERALTENOROFTHECOMBINEDRESULTSFROMTHISSAMPLEISTHATTHEPROFESSIONSIGNALSTOLESSABLESCHOLARSTHATTHEIRWORKNOLONGERMEETSTHEPROFESSIONSHIGHESTSTANDARDS,ANDMOSTOFTHEMRESPONDBYREDUCINGTHEIRSUBMISSIONSTOTHEHIGHESTQUALITYJOURNALSIIICONCLUSIONSWEHAVEFOLLOWEDTHECAREERSOFECONOMISTSANDMEASUREDTHEDEMOGRAPHICCHARACTERISTICSOFPUBLISHERSINLEADINGJOURNALSTHEEVIDENCESEEMSQUITECLEARTHATPUBLISHINGDIMINISHESWITHAGE,ESPECIALLYPUBLISHINGINLEADINGJOURNALS,ATRATESASRAPIDASINTHEPHYSICALSCIENCESINDEED,REMARKABLYFEWOLDERPEOPLEPUBLISHSUCCESSFULLYINTHESCHOLARLYOUTLETSONWHICHTHEPROFESSIONPLACESTHEHIGHESTVALUEASECONOMISTSAGE,THOSEWHOWERETHEMOSTPRODUCTIVEEARLYINTHEIRCAREERSAREAMONGTHEFEWSURVIVORSSTILLCONTRIBUTINGTOSCHOLARSHIPTHROUGHTHELEADINGSCHOLARLYOUTLETSWHETHERTHISRELATIONSHIPISDUETONATURALDECLINESINCAPACITYORDECREAS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