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语言文化论文-Why has the global capital market grown so rapidly in recent decades-Will this growth continue throughout the 2000s-.doc

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语言文化论文-Why has the global capital market grown so rapidly in recent decades-Will this growth continue throughout the 2000s-.doc

语言文化论文WHYHASTHEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETGROWNSORAPIDLYINRECENTDECADESWILLTHISGROWTHCONTINUETHROUGHOUTTHE2000SBU2207INTERNATIONALBUSINESSENVIRONMENTTUTORSIRENEGREAVES,LINDAONYEKASTUDENTNAMESIHAOXIEDATE14JANUARY2002INTRODUCTIONDICTIONARYOFBUSINESSDEFINESTHECAPITALMARKETASAMARKETINWHICHLONGTERMCAPITALISRAISEDBYINDUSTRYANDCOMMERCE,THEGOVERNMENT,ANDLOCALAUTHORITIESTHEMONEYCOMESFROMPRIVATEINVESTORS,INSURANCECOMPANIES,PENSIONFUNDS,ANDBANKSANDISUSUALLYARRANGEDBYISSUINGHOUSESANDMERCHANTBANKSSTOCKEXCHANGESAREALSOPARTOFTHECAPITALMARKETINTHATTHEYPROVIDEAMARKETFORTHESHARESANDLOANSTOCKSTHATREPRESENTTHECAPITALONCEITHASBEENRAISEDITISTHEPRESENCEANDSOPHISTICATIONOFTHEIRCAPITALMARKETSTHATDISTINGUISHESTHEINDUSTRIALCOUNTRIESFROMTHEDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES,INTHATTHISFACILITYFORRAISINGINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALCAPITALISEITHERABSENTORRUDIMENTARYINTHELATTERTHEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETHASGROWNSORAPIDLYINRECENTDECADESSOIWOULDLIKETODISCUSSABOUTITINTHEESSAYTHISESSAYISORGANIZEDASFOLLOW,INTRODUCTION,BODY,CONCLUSIONINTHEBODYPART,SECTION1SHOWSWHYHASTHEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETGROWNSORAPIDLYINRECENTDECADESSECTION2TALKSABOUTTHECONTINUANCEOFTHEGROWTHTHROUGHOUTTHE2000SBODY1WHYHASTHEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETGROWNSORAPIDLYINRECENTDECADESINRECENTDECADES,THEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETHASGROWNSORAPIDLYBECAUSEOFTHERISEOFPRIVATIZATIONSMAINLYWITHPRIVATECAPITALFLOWSRISINGFROMLESSTHAN5PERCENTOFWORLDGDPIN1975TOABOUT20PERCENTTODAY,PRIVATIZATIONSHAVESIGNIFICANTLYINCREASEDMARKETLIQUIDITYANDALSOPRIVATIZATIONTAKESAPOTENTIALROLEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETDEVELOPMENTATHERISEOFCAPITALMARKETBASEDFINANCECAPITALMARKETBASEDFINANCEHASINFACTBEENINCREASINGINIMPORTANCE,BOTHABSOLUTELYANDRELATIVETOFINANCIALINTERMEDIARYBASEDFINANCE,INBOTHDEVELOPEDANDDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESOVERTHEPASTDECADEANDALSOCAPITALMARKETSAREINFACTWINNINGTHEPRESENTANDSEEMLIKELYTODOMINATETHEFUTUREOFCORPORATEFINANCEINDEVELOPEDANDDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESALIKEATHESTABLEROLEOFCOMMERCIALBANKINGINMODERNECONOMIESORDINARYRELATIONSHIPBANKINGAPPEARSTOBEATBESTHOLDINGITSOWNASASOURCEOFCORPORATEFINANCINGAROUNDTHEWORLD,ANDISMORELIKELYINDECLINETHEBITSOFBANKINGTHATAREGROWINGRAPIDLYARETHOSEPARTSTHATPROVIDEHIGHVALUEADDEDPRODUCTSESPECIALLYRISKMANAGEMENTTOOLSANDPROVIDELARGESCALESYNDICATEDCREDITSTOCORPORATEBORROWERSDURINGTHELATE1980SANDEARLY1990S,WHENJAPANANDGERMANYAPPEAREDTOBEOUTPERFORMINGMAJORCAPITALMARKETORIENTEDCOUNTRIESSUCHASBRITAINANDTHEUS,THEACADEMICLITERATUREOFTENFAVOREDBANKBASEDSYSTEMSEXAMPLESOFTHISLITERATUREINCLUDEPROWSE1992,KESTER1992,ANDPORTER1992,WHILETHESUPPORTINGARGUMENTSARESUMMARIZEDINMAHERANDANDERSSON1999ANDTSURU2000MORERECENTLY,HOWEVER,THEWEIGHTOFOPINIONHASSWUNGSTRONGLYINFAVOROFTHEIDEATHATCAPITALMARKETSHAVEDECISIVECOMPARATIVEADVANTAGESOVERBANKSANDOTHERFINANCIALINTERMEDIARIESASOPTIMALMONITORSANDFINANCIERSOFANATIONSCORPORATELIFETHISREASSESSMENTHASBEENDRIVENINPARTBYTHEOBSERVATION,DISCUSSEDATLENGTHABOVE,THATCAPITALMARKETSHAVEBEENPROSPERINGRELATIVETOBANKSFORMANYYEARSNOWTHEREPETITIVENATUREANDMASSIVECOSTSOFBANKINGCRISESINDEVELOPINGANDDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESALIKEHASALSOCONVINCEDMANYOBSERVERSTHATBANKSAREINHERENTLYFRAGILEINSTITUTIONS,WHOSEROLEINCORPORATEFINANCESHOULDBEMINIMIZEDASMUCHANDASQUICKLYASPOSSIBLEECONOMIST1997,1999BTHERAPIDGROWTHINSTOCKMARKETCAPITALIZATIONANDTRADINGVOLUMESINCE1983FROM1983TO2000,THISWASAPERIODOFVERYRAPIDGROWTHINTHECAPITALIZATIONOFMARKETSINEVERYCOUNTRYEXCEPTJAPANTOTALWORLDMARKETCAPITALIZATIONINCREASEDOVERTENFOLDTO350TRILLIONBETWEEN1983AND1999,ANDTHETOTALCAPITALIZATIONOFTHEUSMARKETINCREASEDALMOSTNINEFOLDFROM19TRILLIONTO166TRILLIONOVERTHESAMEPERIODCTHEDRAMATICGROWTHINSECURITIESISSUANCEVOLUMESINCE1990ANOTHERWAYOFMEASURINGTHERISEOFCAPITALMARKETSISTOEXAMINEWHETHERTHEIRSHAREOFANNUALCORPORATEFINANCINGACTIVITYHASGROWNRELATIVETOTHATOFOTHERSOURCESOFFUNDINGSECURITYOFFERINGSBYUSISSUERSACCOUNTEDFORTWOTHIRDSOFTHEGLOBALTOTALTHROUGHOUT19901999,THATIMPLIESTHATNONUSSECURITIESISSUESINCREASEDFROM191BILLIONIN1990TO750BILLIONIN1998,ANDTHENTO119TRILLIONIN1999THESURGEINNONUSISSUANCEVOLUMEIN1999WASLARGELYDUETOTHEPOPULARITYOFEURODENOMINATEDBONDISSUES,WHICHACTUALLYEXCEEDEDDOLLARDENOMINATEDBONDISSUESFORMUCHOF1999DTHEPHENOMENALGROWTHINVENTURECAPITALFINANCINGINTHEUNITEDSTATESONEHIGHLYSPECIALIZED,BUTEXTREMELYIMPORTANTTYPEOFFINANCINGHASALSOGROWNVERYRAPIDLYOVERTHEPASTDECADE,ANDESPECIALLYSOSINCE1997THISISVENTURECAPITALINVESTMENTBYUSVENTURECAPITALPARTNERSHIPSTHEFUNDRAISINGPATTERNSOFTHESEPRIVATEEQUITYINVESTORSAREDISCUSSEDINGOMPERSANDLERNER1998,ANDTHECOMPETITIVEADVANTAGESOFUSVENTURECAPITALISTSVERSUSTHOSEINOTHERDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESAREDESCRIBEDINBLACKANDGILSON1998ETHESURGEINMERGERSANDACQUISITIONSWORLDWIDETHEALMOSTINCREDIBLEINCREASEINTHETOTALVOLUMEOFMERGERANDACQUISITIONACTIVITYTHATHASOCCURREDSINCE1990WHILETAKEOVERSHAVEALWAYSPLAYEDANIMPORTANTROLEINTHEUNITEDSTATES,THERISEINMAMERGERANDACQUISITIONACTIVITYINEUROPEDURINGTHE1990SWASEVENMOREDRAMATICFROMLESSTHAN50BILLIONANNUALLYINTHELATE1980S,THETOTALVALUEOFMAINVOLVINGAEUROPEANTARGETREACHED592BILLIONIN1998,BEFOREMORETHANDOUBLINGTO122TRILLIONIN1999RIVALINGTHEUSTOTALTHEGLOBALVALUEOFMAACTIVITYIN1999REACHED34TRILLION,ANASTOUNDING10OFWORLDGDPNEXTIWILLDOCUMENTTHATSHAREISSUEPRIVATIZATIONSHAVETRULYTRANSFORMEDSHAREOWNERSHIPPATTERNSOFINVESTORSINMANYDIFFERENTCOUNTRIESBPRIVATIZATIONSIMPACTONSTOCKANDBONDMARKETDEVELOPMENTWESHOULDBECAREFULININFERRINGCAUSATIONREGARDINGPRIVATIZATIONSIMPACTONMARKETGROWTH,SINCEASHIFTINIDEOLOGYORSOMEOTHEREXOGENOUSPOLITICALORECONOMICCHANGEMIGHTHAVECAUSEDBOTHTHEPRIVATIZATIONANDTHEOVERALLBOOMATOTALPROCEEDSRAISEDBYPRIVATIZATIONPROGRAMSITISCLEARTHATNATIONALGOVERNMENTSHAVEBEENAMONGTHEBIGGESTWINNERSFROMPRIVATIZATIONPROGRAMS,SINCETHESEHAVEDRAMATICALLYINCREASEDGOVERNMENTREVENUES,WHICHISCLEARLYONEREASONTHEPOLICYHASSPREADSORAPIDLYASMENTIONEDABOVE,PRIVATISATIONINTERNATIONALGIBBON1998,2000REPORTSTHATTHECUMULATIVEVALUEOFPROCEEDSRAISEDBYPRIVATIZINGGOVERNMENTSEXCEEDED1TRILLIONSOMETIMEDURINGTHESECONDHALFOF1999ASANADDEDBENEFIT,THISREVENUEHASCOMETOGOVERNMENTSWITHOUTHAVINGTORAISETAXESORCUTOTHERPUBLICSERVICESBPRIVATIZATIONSIMPACTONINTERNATIONALINVESTMENTBANKINGALLINTERNATIONALINVESTMENTBANKSCOMPETEFIERCELYFORSHAREISSUEPRIVATIZATIONMANDATES,FORTWOPRINCIPALREASONSFIRST,BECAUSETHEOFFERINGSARESOLARGEANDSOVISIBLEANDAREALMOSTALWAYSDESIGNEDTOHELPPROMOTETHEMARKETSCAPACITYTOABSORBSUBSEQUENTSTOCKOFFERINGSBYPRIVATECOMPANIESTHESEAREVERYPRESTIGIOUSMANDATESTODATE,THELARGEUSANDBRITISHBROKERAGEHOUSESHAVEHADTHEMOSTSUCCESSINWINNINGADVISORYANDUNDERWRITINGMANDATES,THOUGHALLCOUNTRIESTHATLAUNCHLARGESCALESIPPROGRAMSTENDTOFAVORLOCALINVESTMENTBANKSASNATIONALCHAMPIONSTOHANDLETHEDOMESTICSHARETRANCHETHESECONDREASONBANKSCOMPETESOFIERCELYFORSIPMANDATESISBECAUSETHEYCANBEEXTREMELYPROFITABLEINSPITEOFTHEFACTDOCUMENTEDBYJONES,ETAL1999ANDLJUNGQVIST,ETAL2000THATSIPSHAVESIGNIFICANTLYLOWERUNDERWRITINGSPREADSTHANPRIVATESECTOROFFERINGS,THEIRSHEERSIZEANDLACKOFDOWNSIDEPRICERISKMAKETHEMVERYLUCRATIVEFORUNDERWRITERS2WILLTHISGROWTHCONTINUETHROUGHOUTTHE2000SASWEINDICATEDABOVE,THEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETHASGROWNSORAPIDLYINRECENTDECADESCAUSEOFTHEPRIVATIZATIONSRISEPRIVATIZATIONSINCREASEDTHEMARKETLIQUIDITYNOWWEHAVEALREADYSTEPPEDINTOTHE21STCENTURYIBELIEVETHATTHEGROWTHWILLCONTINUEFORTHEFOLLOWINGREASONSFIRST,MOSTOFTHESOUTHEASTASIACOUNTRIESHAVERECOVEREDFROMTHE1997FINANCIALCRISISFORTHESECOUNTRIES,THEYNOWHAVETHECAPITALTODOBUSINESSESANDTHEYGETBACKONTHEFASTGROWINGTRACKSECOND,BYTHEENDOF2001,WORLDSBIGGESTDEVELOPINGCOUNTRY,CHINA,HASENTEREDTHEWTOWORLDTRADEORGANIZATIONTHISISREALGREATNEWSASWEALLKNOW,TODAYSCHINATAKESASERIOUSPOSITIONINWORLDSECONOMYITSINNOVATIONANDOPENINGPOLICYMAKECHINAKEEPACHIEVINGHIGHGDPGROWTHRATETHISDRIVESTHEGLOBALCAPITALMARKETKEEPGROWINGSUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONSTHISESSAYEXAMINESTHEIMPACTOFSHAREISSUEPRIVATIZATIONSSIPSONTHEGROWTHOFWORLDCAPITALMARKETSESPECIALLYSTOCKMARKETSIBEGINBYDOCUMENTINGTHEINCREASINGIMPORTANCEOFCAPITALMARKETS,ANDTHEDECLININGROLEOFCOMMERCIALBANKS,INCORPORATEFINANCIALSYSTEMSAROUNDTHEWORLDITHENSHOWTHATPRIVATIZATIONPROGRAMSPARTICULARLYTHOSEINVOLVINGPUBLICSHAREOFFERINGSHAVEHADADRAMATICIMPACTBOTHONTHEDEVELOPMENTOFNONUSSTOCKMARKETSANDONTHEPARTICIPATIONOFINDIVIDUALANDINSTITUTIONALINVESTORSINTHOSESTOCKMARKETSTHISHASTOLDTHEREASONOFTHEFASTGROWTHOFGLOBALCAPITALMARKETANDTHENISUCCINCTLYINDICATEDTHECONTINUANCEOFTHERAPIDGROWTH,THEGREATFUTURETHELASTBUTNOTTHELEASTISTHERECOMMENDATIONICANCONFIDENTLYASSERTTHAT,IFEXECUTEDPROPERLY,ASERIESOFSHAREISSUEPRIVATIZATIONSCANINDEEDPROMOTETHEGROWTHOFGLOBALCAPITALMARKET,WHICHWILLYIELDECONOMICANDPOLITICALDIVIDENDSFORMANYYEARSTOCOMETHATMEANSTHEREISANEEDTOENCOURAGETHEDEVELOPMENTOFSIPSINORDERTOGAINGROWTH

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