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台湾问题论文-War or Peace Over TAIWAN?.doc

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台湾问题论文-War or Peace Over TAIWAN?.doc

台湾问题论文WARORPEACEOVERTAIWANTHELIKELIHOODOFAMILITARYCONFLICTINTHETAIWANSTRAIT,NOTSOONBUTAFTERONEORTWODECADES,MAYBEJUDGEDBYANSWERSTOSEVERALQUESTIONS1)WILLCHINASTOPPOLITICIANSDISCOUNTTHEHIGHCOSTOFUSINGFORCETOASSERTTHEIRCLAIMTOTAIWAN(THISMAYBEUNLIKELYUNTILAFTERTHEFIRSTDECADEOFTHENEWMILLENNIUM,BUTITMOREPROBABLYCOULDHAPPENAFTERTHEYEAR2010)2)ATANEARLIERTIME,INTHENEARFUTURE,DOMUTUALLYBENEFICIALTERMSEXISTFORANINTERIMTRUCEACROSSTHESTRAIT,ALLOWINGAPERIODOFPOLITICALEVOLUTIONONBOTHSIDESTHATWOULDENABLEAPEACEFULFULLSETTLEMENTLATER3)EVENIFMUTUALLYREWARDINGTERMSFORSUCHATRUCEEXIST,DOTHEELITESINTAIPEIANDBEIJINGHAVESTRUCTURESTHATCANBRINGTHEMACTUALLYTONEGOTIATEIT4)WOULDTAIWANSDEFENSECAPABILITIESATEACHRELEVANTTIMEBEABLE(ORUNABLE)TODETERTHEMOSTLIKELYKINDOFATTACKAGAINSTTHEISLAND,WHICHCOULDPERHAPSBEGINWITHMARINEMINESANDBEIJINGSANNOUNCEMENTOFANECONOMICBLOCKADE5)WOULDTHEUNITEDSTATESHELPDEFENDTHEISLANDATTHOSETIMES,EVENIFCHINAEVOLVESAMOREOPENPOLITICALSYSTEMAND/OROFFERSTAIWANCONDITIONSFORAUNIFICATIONWITHAUTONOMYTHATWOULDBECREDIBLYENFORCEABLEANDSTABLELEADERSOFTHEPEOPLESREPUBLICOFCHINA(PRC)HAVENEVERFORSWORNUSEOFTHEPEOPLESLIBERATIONARMY(PLA)TOASSERTTHEIRCLAIMOFOWNERSHIPAGAINSTTHEREPUBLICOFCHINA(ROC)。THISESSAYWILLARGUE,HOWEVER,THATFAIRTERMSEXISTFORANINTERIMTRUCELASTINGSEVERALDECADESTOGIVETHEREADERASENSEOFTHISESSAYSDIRECTION,POSSIBLETERMSOFSUCHATRUCECANBESUGGESTEDBEFORETHEREASONSFORTHEMAREEXPLOREDTHEUNOFFICIALNEGOTIATINGAGENCIESOFTHETWOSIDESMIGHTAGREETHATTAIPEIFORSWEARDECLARINGINDEPENDENCEFROMCHINA,ANDBEIJINGFORSWEARPURSUINGFORCEAGAINSTTAIWAN,FORALONGTIME(SUCHAS50YEARS)。TOHEADOFFMISUNDERSTANDINGSABOUTTRUCEVIOLATIONS,THEYCOULDNOTEATHIRDPARTYSLISTOFCOUNTRIESWITHWHICHEACHSIDECLAIMSCURRENTDIPLOMATICLIAISONS,WITHOUTFULLYLEGITIMATINGTHESETHEUNOFFICIALNEGOTIATINGFOUNDATIONSCOULDREAFFIRMTHEIRPRESENTCOMMITMENTSTOCONTINUETALKSTOWARDFURTHERAGREEMENTSTHISESSAYWILLALSOARGUE,HOWEVER,THATCRUCIALLEADERSINBOTHTAIWANANDCHINAGAINSHORTTERMDOMESTICPOLITICALBENEFITSFROMCROSSSTRAITSTENSIONSSOINPRACTICE,THEYAREUNLIKELYTONEGOTIATEEVENATEMPORARYTRUCEUNDERTHESECIRCUMSTANCES,THEUNITEDSTATESWILLPROBABLYHELPTODEFENDTAIWANSDEMOCRACYASSUCHUNTILEITHERBEIJINGALSOBECOMESDEMOCRATICOROFFERSTAIPEIVERYCREDIBLYENFORCEABLETERMSUNDERWHICHTAIWANSDEMOCRACYCOULDBEMAINTAINEDWITHINAUNIFIEDCHINABUTBECAUSEOFAMERICASBROADERGLOBALINTERESTSANDMAJORCONCRETEINTERESTSINTHEMAINLANDSPOTENTIALDEMOCRACYIFBEIJINGOFFERSTAIPEITERMSFORUNIFICATIONWITHPRACTICALAUTONOMYTHATCANBECREDIBLYENFORCEDBYMULTIPLEMEANSINCLUDINGTHEISLANDSARMY,THENAMERICASLEADERSARELIKELYTOCONSIDERTHEIRCOMMITMENTTOTAIWANFULFILLEDTHEUSPREMISETHATCHINAANDTAIWANWILLRESOLVETHEIRDISPUTEINPEACEFULNEGOTIATIONS,HOWEVER,ISINCREASINGLYNAVESOTHEUSMAYBEDRAWNINTOAWARWHOSEEFFECTWOULDBETOKEEPTAIWANPOLITICALLYSEPARATEFROMCHINATHATWOULDBEADISSERVICETOAMERICASLARGERDEMOCRATICANDSECURITYINTERESTSEXPLORATIONOFTHEFIVEQUESTIONSLISTEDABOVEWILLSHOWTHESHAPEOFTHISSITUATION1)WILLCHINASLEADERSUSEFORCETOCONTINUETHEIRTAIWANCLAIMTHISFIRSTQUESTIONISEASYTOANSWER,BECAUSEBEIJINGSLEADERSHAVEALREADYUSEDFORCESYMBOLICALLYTOASSERTTHISINTERESTSEVERALTIMES,ASIN1995AND1996WHENTHEYHELDMILITARYEXERCISESANDFIREDMISSILESNEARTAIWANTHEYOFTENAVOWANATIONALRIGHTTOTAKETAIWANWITHFORCE,NOTJUSTSYMBOLICALLYFURTHER,BEIJINGPOLITICIANSPREDICTINPUBLICTHATTHEIRINFLUENCEOVERWORLDPOLITICSWILLGROWINCOMINGDECADESEVENTHOUGHTHEYNODOUBTEXAGGERATETHERATEOFINCREASEOFTHEIRPOWER,INTHELONGRUNTHEYAREPROBABLYRIGHTCHINAISFINALLYAWAKENING,ASTHEADAGESAYSTHEPRCNOWHASANECONOMYMORETHANFOURTIMESTHESIZEOFTAIWANS,EXPANDINGHALTINGLYBUTQUICKLYITHASAPOPULATION60TIMESTHATOFTHEISLAND,ANDATERRITORYMORETHAN260TIMESLARGERTHEGROWTHOFCHINASECONOMICPRODUCTHASBEENFASTERTHANOFITSMILITARYPOWER,BUTCHINAWILLBECOMERELATIVELYSTRONGERINTHEWORLDDURINGCOMINGDECADES,PARTLYBECAUSEOFITSECONOMICSIZEBEIJINGLEADERSPROUDEXPECTATIONOFTHISCHANGEISABASISFORPOSSIBLEPRCPATIENCEABOUTRESOLVINGITSTERRITORIALCLAIMONTAIWANITISALSOTHEBASISOFACERTAINTYINBEIJINGTHATTAIWANMUSTSOMEDAYBECOMEPARTOFTHECHINESESTATETHETIMINGANDSPEEDOFCHINASFUTUREEMPOWERMENTFORSPECIFICPURPOSESCANBESUBJECTTODIFFERENTREASONABLEESTIMATESMANYSCHOLARSINCLUDINGSOMEINBOTHBEIJINGANDTAIPEIEXPECTCHINATOREMAINCLEARLYUNABLETOUSEFORCETOASSERTITSTAIWANCLAIMFORMORETHANADECADEATLEASTRECENTJOURNALISMINTAIPEICITESTHEDATE2010ASALIKELYTIMEOFCRISISINISLANDMAINLANDRELATIONSBYABOUTTHATTIME,MANYRESEARCHERSOFVARIOUSPOLITICALVIEWPOINTSTHINKCHINASMILITARYSHORTCOMINGSWILLHAVECHANGEDTOSTRENGTHVISVISTAIWAN(THOUGHNOTVISVISTHEUNITEDSTATES)。CHINASABILITYTORAISETHENONMILITARYCOSTSTOCOUNTRIESAIDINGTAIWANEVENIFTHEPRCSOWNCOSTSAREGREATERWILLALSORISE,INJAPANORINDONESIA)COULDALTERTHISPROSPECTUSSOMEWHATBUTBYSOMEPERIODAFTER2010,CHINAWILLBECOMEABLETOASSERTITSTAIWANCLAIMFARMOREEFFECTIVELYTHANATPRESENTTHISEFFECTIVENESSISDELAYEDCURRENTLYBYSPECIFICMILITARYDIFFICULTIESTHEPLAWOULDFACEINWINNINGACONFLICTITMIGHTSTART,BYUSKNOWLEDGEOFTHEPRCSILLIBERALISM,ANDBYTAIWANSMILITARYANDECONOMICPROWESSTHENEARCERTAINTYOFCHINASFUTURESUPERPOWERSTATUSDOESNOTMEANTHATTHEWISHESOFITSLEADERSWILLTHENPREVAILAUTOMATICALLYASTHEUSDISCOVEREDINSOMALIAANDEARLIERINVIETNAM,SUPERPOWERSARENOTALWAYSSUPREMELYEFFECTIVEBUTBEIJINGSTOPPOLITICIANSTHINKOVERTIMETHEYWILLBECOMEINCREASINGLYCAPABLEOFREALIZINGTHEIRWISHESINTHEIROWNNEIGHBORHOODIFCHINABECOMESRELATIVELYSTRONGERANDIFPRCPOLITICSPLURALIZES,OTHERPOWERSSUCHASJAPANANDTHEUSCANBEEXPECTEDTOWEIGHTHEIROVERALLINTERESTSINDECIDINGWHETHERTOCOMMITRESOURCESTOOPPOSEBEIJINGTHENTHEUSWILLPAYTHESECOSTSTODEFENDTAIWANSLIBERALSIRRESPECTIVEOFANYINCREASEOFPRCSTRENGTH,BUTNOTAFTERCHINESEPOLITICSBECOMEMOREREPRESENTATIVEORTHEPRCOFFERSTAIWANADEALFORPOLITICALAUTONOMYWITHINCHINAWHOSETERMSCANBEGUARANTEEDBYTAIWANSOWNFORCESSOMEONTAIWANHOPETHATBEIJINGMAYEVENTUALLYRESCINDITSASSERTIONTHATTHEISLANDISCHINESETAIWANNATIONALISTSCITETHEFACTTHATPOSTREVOLUTIONARYRUSSIANSALLOWEDTHESOVIETEMPIRETOBREAKUP,ALTHOUGHFEWOUTSIDEOBSERVERSHADPREDICTEDTHISBUTBARELYHALFTHEPEOPLEINTHEUSSRWERERUSSIANINCHINA,OVERNINETENTHSAREETHNICALLYHANASARETAIWANESE(BYLANGUAGE,KINSHIPSTRUCTURE,RELIGION,ANDOTHERANTHROPOLOGICALMEASURES)。THECHANCETHATPRCELITESWILLFORGETTHISISEXTREMELYLOW,NOWTHATTHEYTHINKTHEIRPOWERWILLINCREASETHISPREDICTIONTHATTHECHINASCLAIMWILLCONTINUEDOESNOTNECESSARILYPRESUMETHECOMMUNISTPARTYWILLRULEINBEIJINGFORALONGTIMETHEPARTYMAYGOON,ORITMAYBEOVERBUTPRACTICALLYALLMAINLANDELITESINGOVERNMENTORINDISSENTAGREETHATTAIWANISCHINESEVERYFEWINTHEPRCCHALLENGETHISVIEWTAIWANSRECENTDEMOCRATIZATIONISSEENBYSOMEMAINLANDCONSERVATIVESASATHREATTOTHEIROWNSTATUSTHATREQUIRESACONTINUANCEOFCHINESECLAIMSTOTAIWANMAINLANDREFORMISTS,HOWEVER,MAYVIEWTAIWANSDEMOCRATIZATIONASIMPORTANTONLYIFTHEISLANDISCHINESEMANYINCHINAAREKEENLYENVIOUSOFTAIWANSECONOMIC,POLITICAL,ANDCULTURALSUCCESSESTAIWANSTVCOMEDIANSANDTORCHSINGERS(EG,INTHEPASTTHELATETHERESATENGLICHN)WERESURELYWORTHANAIRCRAFTCARRIERGROUPBUTTHISPRCAWARENESSOFTAIWANESEWEALTHANDFREEDOMPROBABLYUNDERMINESTHECOMMUNISTPARTY,MORETHANITPERSUADESMAINLANDERSTHATTAIWANISNOTCHINESESTATEPATRIOTISMHASHISTORICALLYCOMEINMANYFORMS,ANDINCHINA(LIKEGERMANY,RUSSIA,ANDJAPAN)NATIONALISMHASGENERALLYBEENCOLLECTIVISTANDAUTHORITARIANINTAIWAN,WITHITSTRADITIONSOFROUGHPIONEERINGONANISLANDTHATWASPUTUNDERRICECULTIVATIONBYHANSONLYAFEWCENTURIESAGOWITHOUTHELPFROMTHECHINESESTATE,AUTHORITYAMONGLOCALLEADERSHASBEENMOREINDIVIDUALISTICTHANINNORTHCHINAESPECIALLYTHEBEIJINGCENTRISMOFMOSTPRCINTELLECTUALS,BYCONTRAST,STRIKESMANYTAIWANESEASASEVEREAFFLICTIONTHETAIWANESEPEOPLE,ACCORDINGTOAFOREIGNSCHOLAR,INCREASINGLYDETESTTHEBIGOTSFROMBEIJING,WHOTHINKTHATBEINGBORNINTHESHADOWOFTHEFORBIDDENCITYGIVESTHEMTHERIGHTTOBOSSAROUNDCHINESEPEOPLEEVERYWHEREABOUT12BILLIONCHINESE,HOWEVER,DONOTLIVEINBEIJING,EVENTHOUGHATTITUDESINTHEPRCGOVERNMENTSCARCELYREFLECTTHISFACTPOPULARMAINLANDVIEWSASSURVEYEDBYQUESTIONNAIRESSHOWTHATORDINARYPRCCITIZENSVIEWSOFSTATE(GUOJIA)ANDNATION(MINZU)AREDIVIDINGVERYSLOWLYNATIONALISMSAREALLCONTESTED;ANDLIAHGREENFELDSHOWSTHEYCHANGEBECAUSEOFRESSENTIMENT,APROCESSBYWHICHONEGROUPENVIESWHATANOTHERHASIFTHISDRIFTINCHINAISSLUGGISHWHILEPRCMILITARYSTRENGTHRISES,WARMIGHTWINITSRACEWITHENVYCHINESECONSTRUCTTHEIRNATIONALIDENTITYCONTINUOUSLYANDINMANYWAYSMAINLANDENTREPRENEURS,SOUTHERNERS,ANDJUSTAFEWOFCHINASDISSIDENTS(THOSEWHOHAVEGIVENUPHOPESOFCAREERSINBEIJING)PRESSFORUNIFICATIONWITHTAIWANLESSARDENTLYTHANMILITARISTS,NORTHERNERS,ANDSTATISTINTELLECTUALSSTILL,THISISMAINLYADIFFERENCEOFAPPROACH,ATACTICALDISAGREEMENTRATHERTHANASTRATEGICPOLICYDIFFERENCEMANYASPECTSOFTHISISSUEABOUTCHINASPOSSIBLEUSEOFFORCEAGAINSTTAIWANCANBEREPHRASEDINAQUESTIONABOUTDOMESTICPRCPOLITICSWILLGROWTHORIENTEDREFORMISTSORPATRIOTICCONSERVATIVESDOMINATEINBEIJINGTHISFACTORSEEMSTOVARYOVERTIME,ANDITISLIKELYTOSETTHEMAXIMUMTERMSTHATBEIJINGWILLCONSIDERFORUNIFICATIONWHENSUCHTERMSARESUFFICIENTLYFAVORABLETOPEACE,THEYCOULDGIVETAIWANESELEADERSACHANCETOSOLVETHEISLANDSSECURITYPROBLEMALTERNATIVELY,ATATIMEWHENBEIJINGSXENOPHOBICCONSERVATIVESMAYBEINPOWER,THISFACTORCOULDMEANBLOCKADES,THEMININGOFPORTS,ANDOTHERATTACKSAGAINSTTAIWANTHEDIRECTCOSTSOFSUCHACTIONSBYTHEPLAMAYBEDECREASING,ANDTHELESSCERTAINBUTHIGHINDIRECTCOSTSMAYBEIRRATIONALLYDISCOUNTEDBYPRCLEADERSWHOAREFERVENTPATRIOTSTHISVARIABLECOULDBESUFFICIENTTOBRINGLONGTERM(25YEARS)CHINESESOVEREIGNTYONTAIWAN,ALTHOUGHITWOULDNOTDOSOINTHESHORTTERM(C5YEARS)。REFORMISTSARECURRENTLYINCHARGEOFPRCPRACTICALADMINISTRATIONPRESIDENTJIANGZEMINHEADSARATHERUNCHARISMATICGROUPOFTECHNOCRATS,ANDPREMIERZHURONGJISMOSTPUBLICINTERESTSAREECONOMICTAIWANRAISESISSUESOFPATRIOTICIDENTITY,HOWEVERTHESELEADERSARERATIONALISTS,ANDTHEYMAYHAVESOMETENDENCYTODELAYUNIFICATIONWITHTAIWANUNTILTHEYTHINKTHEPROCESSCANBECOSTEFFECTIVELYENGINEEREDBUTSOMEAUTHORITIESINBEIJINGORTHEIRPATRONSINTHEPLACOULDUNDERESTIMATETHECOSTSOFWARAGAINSTTAIWANNATIONALISTICZEALOTRY(WHICHAMONGTHECLASSICZEALOTSLEDTODEATHSATMASADA)ISALSOEVIDENTINSTATEMENTSBYFERVENTTAIWANESENATIONALISTSVILFREDOPARETO,INHISWORKABOUTTHECIRCULATIONOFELITES,EXPLAINSWHYADISTINCTIONBETWEENHARDLINECONSERVATIVESANDFLEXIBLEREFORMERSISAHARDYPERENNIALOFALLPOLITICSLIONVSFOXPOLITICSISNOTLIMITEDTOECONOMICANDTECHNICALMATTERS;ITALSOAFFECTSIDENTITYGROWTHORIENTEDPRCREFORMISTELITES(SOUTHERN,LOCALENTREPRENEURIAL,ANDSOMETECHNOCRATICLEADERS)MAYCOMETOREPR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