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201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt

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201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt

ANCHORREPORTBUYSMARTPHONES|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNEWTHEMETHERMB1,000REVOLUTIONTHEADVENTOFRMB1,000CIRCAUS150SMARTPHONESPROMISESTOREVOLUTIONISECHINA’STELECOMINDUSTRYANDTHEGLOBALHANDSETSPACEASWELLASDRIVING3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINA,WEEXPECTTHEAVAILABILITYOFAFFORDABLE,CAPABLEENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESTOLEADTOCONSOLIDATIONINTHEDOMESTICHANDSETINDUSTRY,SINCESMALLWHITEBOXVENDORSDON’THAVEARELIABLEUPGRADEPATHTO3GFROMEITHERACHIPSETSOURCINGORPRODUCTDISTRIBUTIONSTANDPOINTMOREOVER,WETHINKTHESEPHONESWILLHELPCHINESEHANDSETOEMSMOVEUPTOTHEMIDRANGEPRODUCTSEGMENT,PAVINGTHEWAYSTOCKSFORACTIONWEBELIEVETHEMARKETHASYETTORECOGNISETCLCOMASAKEYBENEFICIARYOFTHEGROWINGPOPULARITYOFSOCIALNETWORKSERVICESSNSINEMERGINGMARKETSORBYDEASAPROXYFORCHINA3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHFORAFURTHERCONVERGENCEINTHEIRVALUATIONSRELATIVETOHANDSETBRANDVENDORSWEFORECASTTHATCHINA’SSMARTPHONEMARKETWILLEXPANDFROM20MNUNITSIN2010FTOSTOCKTCLCOM2618HKRATINGBUYPRICEPRICETARGETHK808HK110062MNIN2012F,MAKINGITTHEWORLD’SSECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETAFTERTHEUSBYVOLUMEWEHIGHLIGHTABROADSPECTRUMOFBENEFICIARIESFROMTHEARRIVALOFBYDELECTRONIC285HKCHINAWIRELESS2369HKNEUTRALHK513HK600HK460HK450SMARTPHONESFORTHEMASSESHANDSETVENDORSSUCHASBYDE,TCLCOM,ZTEANDHTC,ALONGWITHRETAILERGOMEQUALCOMM,CHINAWIRELESSANDDIGITALCHINAALSOLOOKDIGITALCHINA861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK1604HK1700BUYHK2995HK3600BUYNT894NT1,000SETTOBENEFIT,THOUGHWEVIEWPREVAILINGVALUATIONSASFAIRWESEEMEDIATEKASAGOME493HKBUYHK289HK430POTENTIALLOSERFROMTHE2GTO3GTRANSITIONQUALCOMMQCOMUSMEDIATEK2454TTNEUTRALUS5133US4500REDUCENT398NT275CHINATOBETHESECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETBY2012FANDROIDTOSPURCONVERGENCEOFHANDSETBRANDVENDORSANDOEMS3GTRANSITIONTOCONSOLIDATECHINESEHANDSETINDUSTRYTOPPICKSTCLCOM,BYDEINITIATINGCOVERAGE;PRICESASAT20JANCLOSEANALYSTSLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNOMURAASIAEXJAPANRESEARCHNOMURAUSRESEARCHNOMURAANCHORREPORTSEXAMINETHEKEYTHEMESANDVALUEDRIVERSTHATUNDERPINOURSECTORVIEWSANDSTOCKRECOMMENDATIONSFORTHENEXT6TO12MONTHSANYAUTHORSNAMEDONTHISREPORTARERESEARCHANALYSTSUNLESSOTHERWISEINDICATEDSEETHEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSONPAGES93TO96NOMURA24JANUARY2011PRICE1SMARTPHONES|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNEWTHEMEACTIONWELOOKATTHEEMERGINGENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONETRENDFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHEWHOLEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAINCOVERINGCHIPSETVENDORS,HANDSETOEMS,DISTRIBUTORSANDOPERATORSBUYTCLCOMINITIATION,BYDE,ZTEANDHTCASHANDSETVENDORBENEFICIARIESINDISTRIBUTION,SYNNEXANDGOMELOOKWELLPLACEDWEREITERATEOURREDUCEONMEDIATEKASAPOTENTIALLOSEROFTHE2GTO3GTRANSITIONWELIKECHINAWIRELESSINITIATIONANDDIGITALCHINAINITIATIONBUTTHEIRVALUATIONSLOOKFAIRSTOCKSFORACTIONWEBELIEVETHEMARKETHASYETTORECOGNISETCLCOMASAKEYBENEFICIARYOFTHEGROWINGPOPULARITYOFSOCIALNETWORKSERVICESSNSINEMERGINGMARKETSORBYDEASAPROXYFORCHINA3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHCATALYSTSSTOCKTCLCOM2618HKRATINGBUYPRICETARGETHK808HK1100POSITIVECATALYSTSINCLUDEHIGHERTHANEXPECTED3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINABYDELECTRONIC285HKCHINAWIRELESS2369HKBUYNEUTRALHK513HK460HK600HK450ANCHORTHEMESENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESAREANIMPORTANTTRENDINCHINAANDGLOBALLYENTRYLEVELDIGITALCHINA861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK1604HK1700BUYHK2995HK3600BUYNT894NT1,000SMARTPHONESSHOULDHELPCHINESEOPERATORSDRIVE3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHANDGOME493HKBUYHK289HK430RESHAPETHEHANDSETMANUFACTURINGANDDISTRIBUTIONINDUSTRYQUALCOMMQCOMUSMEDIATEK2454TTNEUTRALUS5133US4500REDUCENT398NT275INITIATINGCOVERAGE;PRICESASAT20JANCLOSETHERMB1,000REVOLUTIONCHINATOBETHESECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETBY2012FWEFORECASTCHINA’SSMARTPHONEMARKETWILLEXPANDFROM20MNIN2010FTO62MNIN2012F,ANDBECOMETHEWORLD’SSECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETAFTERTHEUSBYVOLUMEIN2012FOURAFFORDABILITYANALYSISSHOWSTHATRMB1,0002,000SMARTPHONESWILLDRIVE3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINAWENOTETHATTHEIPHONEISTARGETEDATTHETOP5OFTOTAL3GSUBSCRIBERSINCHINAWETHINKTHEDIFFERENCEINUSEREXPERIENCEANDASSOCIATEDSERVICEPLANSBETWEENHIGHENDANDLOWENDSMARTPHONESWILLCHANGETHESMARTPHONEECOSYSTEMANDROIDTOSPURCONVERGENCEOFHANDSETBRANDVENDORSANDOEMSWEBELIEVETHEEMERGENCEOFTHEANDROIDOSHASLOWEREDTHETECHNOLOGYBARRIERSBETWEENHANDSETBRANDVENDORSEG,NOKIA,MOTOROLACAPABLEOFHIGHENDPRODUCTDEVELOPMENTANDHANDSETOEMSCAPABLEONLYOFHANDSETMANUFACTURINGANDLOWENDHANDSETDESIGNTHESELOWERBARRIERSSHOULDHELPHANDSETOEMSTOPENETRATEMIDRANGESEGMENTSANDPRESENTINVESTORSWITHRERATINGOPPORTUNITIESINHANDSETOEMS,GIVENAPOSSIBLECONVERGENCEINVALUATIONBETWEENTHETWOGROUPS,INOURVIEW3GTRANSITIONTOCONSOLIDATECHINESEHANDSETINDUSTRYWETHINKTHETRANSITIONFROM2GTO3GINCHINAWILLENCOURAGECONSOLIDATIONINTHEHANDSETOEMINDUSTRY,BECAUSESMALLVENDORSDONOTHAVEARELIABLEUPGRADEPATHTO3GDUETOLICENSINGRESTRICTIONSBETWEENMEDIATEKANDQUALCOMM,ANDWILLLIKELYFACECHALLENGESINDISTRIBUTIONDUETOTHESHIFTTOANOPERATORCENTRICMODELIN3GFROMADISTRIBUTORPERSPECTIVE,WEEXPECTPCANDHANDSETDISTRIBUTIONTOCONVERGE,ESPECIALLYINSMARTPHONES,CREATINGOPPORTUNITIESFOREXISTINGPCDISTRIBUTORSSUCHASDIGITALCHINAANDSYNNEXTOPPICKSTCLC,BYDEWECALLBUYONBYDE,TCLCOM,ZTE,ANDHTCASBENEFICIARIESINTHEHANDSETVENDORSECTORINDISTRIBUTION,WETHINKSYNNEXANDGOMELOOKWELLPLACEDWEREITERATEOURREDUCERATINGONMEDIATEKASAPOTENTIALLOSERFROMTHE2GTO3GTRANSITIONNOMURAANALYSTSNOMURAASIAEXJAPANRESEARCHLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMDANNYCHU,CFA85222526209DANNYCHUNOMURACOMEVEJUNG886221769975EVEJUNGNOMURACOMAARONJENG,CFA886221769962AARONJENGNOMURACOMCANDYHUANG85222521407CANDYHUANGNOMURACOMSACHINGUPTA,CFA6564336968SACHINGUPTANOMURACOMPANKAJSURI912240533724PANKAJSURINOMURACOMNOMURAUSRESEARCHROMITSHAH12122984326ROMITSHAHNOMURACOMSIDNEYHO,CFA12122984329SIDNEYHONOMURACOMSANJAYCHAURASIA12122984305SANJAYCHAURASIA1NOMURACOM24JANUARY201133358810131515161718202850812SMARTPHONES|CHINALEPINGHUANG,PHDCONTENTSENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESWHYNOWWHYAREWEFOCUSINGONENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESNOWKEYCONCLUSIONSTOPPICKSTCLC,BYDEMARKETDYNAMICSCHINASECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETBY2012FRMB1,0002,000SMARTPHONESTOBETHEMAINDRIVERENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESHAVEGLOBALPOTENTIALCOMPETITIVELANDSCAPEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAININCHINA3GSMARTPHONESTORESHAPEHANDSETDISTRIBUTION3GTRANSITIONTOCONSOLIDATEHANDSETOEMSANDROIDTOCONVERGEHANDSETBRANDSANDHANDSETOEMSENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESTOFORMADISTINCTIVEECOSYSTEMINCHINACOMPANYDYNAMICSOPERATORSHANDSETVENDORSDISTRIBUTORS/RETAILERSLATESTCOMPANYVIEWSTCLCOMMUNICATIONTECHBYDELECTRONICCHINAWIRELESSTECHNOLOGIESDIGITALCHINAZTECORPHTCCORPORATIONGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCESQUALCOMMINCMEDIATEKNOMURA2222242641607277858924JANUARY2011INCHINA3SMARTPHONES|CHINALEPINGHUANG,PHDSUMMARYENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESWHYNOWINTHISREPORT,WEDISCUSSTHEEMERGINGENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONETRENDFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHEWHOLEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAIN,COVERINGCHIPSETVENDORS,HANDSETOEMS,DISTRIBUTORSANDOPERATORSWEDISCUSSTHESCALEANDTIMETABLEFOR3GANDSMARTPHONESINCHINA,ANALYSETHEAFFORDABLEPRICERANGEOFSMARTPHONESINCHINA,ANDASSESSTHEIMPACTOFSMARTPHONESONTHEWHOLEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAIN,ESPECIALLYWITHTHEEMERGENCEOFTHEANDROIDOSFORCHINESEHANDSETOEMSWHYAREWEFOCUSINGONENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESNOWAFTERNEARLYTWOYEARSOFCHINA’SDEVELOPMENTOF3GSUBSCRIBERS,THETOTALNUMBEROF3GSUBSCRIBERSHADREACHED38MNBYTHEENDOFOCTOBER2010,PROGRESSTHATWASFARBEHINDTHEPLANFOR150MNSUBSCRIBERSBYEND2011SETBYTHEMINISTRYOFINDUSTRYANDINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYMIIT,CHINA’STELECOMREGULATORHANDSETSAREONEMAJORBOTTLENECKTO3GGROWTHIN2011,WEBELIEVE3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHWILLBEAKEYTHEMEFORCHINA’STELECOMINDUSTRY,ANDENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESCOULDBEANIMPORTANTACCELERANTOFITWEARESEEINGABOOMINSMARTPHONEDEVELOPMENTAMONGCHINESEHANDSETOEMSMOSTCOMPANIESAREAIMINGTOCAPITALISEONTHEGROWTHOPPORTUNITIESPRESENTEDBY3GINCHINAANDWANTTOPENETRATETHEMIDRANGESEGMENTOFTHEGLOBALHANDSETMARKETSUCHA“STEPUP”STRATEGYHASPROVEDCHALLENGINGINTHEPASTWELOOKATTHEPROSPECTSOFTHEANDROIDOSCHANGINGTHEPICTURETHISTIMEAROUNDWEBELIEVETHISTRENDWILLHAVEASIGNIFICANTIMPACTONTHEEXISTINGGLOBALHANDSETINDUSTRYEXHIBIT1SMARTPHONESMADEBYCHINESEHANDSETVENDORSWHYNOW1IMPORTANTPRODUCTSTODRIVECHINA3GSUBSCRIBERNUMBERSWHYNOW2ANDROIDISBOOMINGBRANDMODELLENOVOLEPHONEZTEX850KTOUCHW606HUAWEIIDEOS/U8150COOLPADW711TCLOT980MEIZUM9HUAWEIIDEOSX5/U8800PHOTOWIRELESSHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMMSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMSCREENSIZEINCHTOUCHSCREENPROCESSOROSCAMERAMPIXELSANNOUNCEDRETAILPRICERMB37CAPACITIVEQUALCOMMSNAPDRAGON1GHZANDROID213MPMAY20102,70028RESISTIVEQUALCOMMMSM7227600MHZANDROID213MPJUNE201085035CAPACITIVESTEST6715468MHZANDROID212MPAUG20101,50028CAPACITIVEQUALCOMMMSM7225528MHZANDROID223MPSEP2010119935RESISTIVESTEPHX6715468MHZANDROID212MPSEP20101,50028RESISTIVEQUALCOMMMSM7227600MHZANDROID212MPSEP20101,60035CAPACITIVESAMSUNGS5PC1101GHZANDROID225MPDEC20102,50038CAPACITIVEQUALCOMMMSM7230800MHZANDROID225MPDEC20102,600SOURCEGSMARENA,PCONLINE,ZOLKEYCONCLUSIONSWENOTETHESHARESOFOEMSHAVEHISTORICALLYTRADEDATADISCOUNTTOHANDSETBRANDS,THOUGHTHATGAPISNARROWINGWEBELIEVETHEENTRYBARRIERSINTECHNOLOGYANDBRANDEQUITYARETHEMAINREASONSFORTHEVALUATIONGAPANDWEBELIEVETHEANDROIDOSANDGOOGLEASABRANDCOULDBREAKDOWNTHESEBARRIERSSTILLFURTHERNOMURAANDROIDTOSPURCONVERGENCEINVALUATIONSAMONGHANDSETOEMS/BRANDS24JANUARY2011MAY09MAY10FEB09MAR09NOV09MAR10AUG09SEP09AUG10SEP10DEC09NOV10FEB10OCT09OCT10JUL09APR09APR10JUL10DEC10JAN09JUN09JAN10JUN10304SMARTPHONES|CHINALEPINGHUANG,PHDEXHIBIT2P/ECOMPARISONBETWEENHANDSETOEMANDHANDSETBRANDSHANDSETOEMSHANDSETBRANDS252015ENTRANCEBARRIER1050NOTE12MONTHFORWARDP/E,HANDSETBRANDSINCLUDESNOKIAANDAPPLECOMPUTER,HANDSETOEMSINCLUDESCHINAWIRELESS,BYDELECTRONICSANDTCLCOMMUNICATIONS,APPLE’SFORECASTISBLOOMBERGCONSENSUS,OTHERSARENOMURAFORECASTSSOURCENOMURAESTIMATESTHEFOLLOWINGEXHIBITSSHOWTHEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAININCHINAWEHIGHLIGHTZTE,TCLCOM,BYDELECTRONICS,SYNNEXANDGOMEASKEYBENEFICIARIESOFTHISSTORYALLARERATEDBUYWHILEWESEEQUALCOMM,CHINAWIRELESSANDDIGITALCHINAASPOTENTIALBENEFICIARIES,TOO,WESEEPREVAILINGVALUATIONSASFAIRWETHINKMEDIATEKSTANDSTOLOSEFROMTHISTREND,ANDWEREAFFIRMOURREDUCERATINGEXHIBIT33GTRANSITIONTOTRIGGERINDUSTRYCONSOLIDATIONHANDSETCOMPONENTAACACOUSTICS2018HKUNIMICRON3037TTDISTRIBUTOR/RETAILERDISTRIBUTORTELLINGTELECOM00829CHDIGITALCHINA861HKSYNNEX2347TTHANDSETCHIPSETQUALCOMMQCOMUSMEDIATEK2454TTSPREADTRUMSPQDUSHANDSETOEMSOEMZTE763HKHUAWEIUNLI

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