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201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt

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201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt

ANCHORREPORTBUYSmartphones|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLepingHuang,PhD85222521598leping.huangnomura.comNEWTHEMETheRMB1,000revolutionTheadventofRMB1,000circaUS150smartphonespromisestorevolutioniseChinastelecomindustryandtheglobalhandsetspace.Aswellasdriving3GsubscribergrowthinChina,weexpecttheavailabilityofaffordable,capableentrylevelsmartphonestoleadtoconsolidationinthedomestichandsetindustry,sincesmallwhiteboxvendorsdonthaveareliableupgradepathto3Gfromeitherachipsetsourcingorproductdistributionstandpoint.Moreover,wethinkthesephoneswillhelpChinesehandsetOEMsmoveuptothemidrangeproductsegment,pavingthewayStocksforactionWebelievethemarkethasyettorecogniseTCLComasakeybeneficiaryofthegrowingpopularityofsocialnetworkservicesSNSinemergingmarketsorBYDEasaproxyforChina3Gsubscribergrowth.forafurtherconvergenceintheirvaluationsrelativetohandsetbrandvendors.WeforecastthatChinassmartphonemarketwillexpandfrom20mnunitsin2010FtoStockTCLCom2618HKRatingBUYPricePricetargetHK8.08HK11.0062mnin2012F,makingittheworldssecondlargestsmartphonemarketaftertheUSbyvolume.WehighlightabroadspectrumofbeneficiariesfromthearrivalofBYDElectronic285HKChinaWireless2369HKNEUTRALHK5.13HK6.00HK4.60HK4.50smartphonesforthemasseshandsetvendorssuchasBYDE,TCLCom,ZTEandHTC,alongwithretailerGome.Qualcomm,ChinaWirelessandDigitalChinaalsolookDigitalChina861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK16.04HK17.00BUYHK29.95HK36.00BUYNT894NT1,000settobenefit,thoughweviewprevailingvaluationsasfair.WeseeMediaTekasaGome493HKBUYHK2.89HK4.30potentialloserfromthe2Gto3Gtransition.QualcommQCOMUSMediaTek2454TTNEUTRALUS51.33US45.00REDUCENT398NT275Chinatobethesecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012FAndroidtospurconvergenceofhandsetbrandvendorsandOEMs3GtransitiontoconsolidateChinesehandsetindustryToppicksTCLCom,BYDEInitiatingcoveragepricesasat20JancloseAnalystsLepingHuang,PhD85222521598leping.huangnomura.comNomuraAsiaexJapanResearchNomuraU.S.ResearchNomuraAnchorReportsexaminethekeythemesandvaluedriversthatunderpinoursectorviewsandstockrecommendationsforthenext6to12months.Anyauthorsnamedonthisreportareresearchanalystsunlessotherwiseindicated.Seetheimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertificationsonpages93to96.Nomura24January2011Price1Smartphones|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLepingHuang,PhD85222521598leping.huangnomura.comNEWTHEMEActionWelookattheemergingentrylevelsmartphonetrendfromtheperspectiveofthewholehandsetsupplierchaincoveringchipsetvendors,handsetOEMs,distributorsandoperators.BUYTCLCominitiation,BYDE,ZTEandHTCashandsetvendorbeneficiaries.Indistribution,SynnexandGomelookwellplaced.WereiterateourREDUCEonMediaTekasapotentialloserofthe2Gto3Gtransition.WelikeChinaWirelessinitiationandDigitalChinainitiationbuttheirvaluationslookfair.StocksforactionWebelievethemarkethasyettorecogniseTCLComasakeybeneficiaryofthegrowingpopularityofsocialnetworkservicesSNSinemergingmarketsorBYDEasaproxyforChina3Gsubscribergrowth.CatalystsStockTCLCom2618HKRatingBUYPricetargetHK8.08HK11.00Positivecatalystsincludehigherthanexpected3GsubscribergrowthinChina.BYDElectronic285HKChinaWireless2369HKBUYNEUTRALHK5.13HK4.60HK6.00HK4.50AnchorthemesEntrylevelsmartphonesareanimportanttrendinChinaandglobally.EntrylevelDigitalChina861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK16.04HK17.00BUYHK29.95HK36.00BUYNT894NT1,000smartphonesshouldhelpChineseoperatorsdrive3GsubscribergrowthandGome493HKBUYHK2.89HK4.30reshapethehandsetmanufacturinganddistributionindustry.QualcommQCOMUSMediaTek2454TTNEUTRALUS51.33US45.00REDUCENT398NT275Initiatingcoveragepricesasat20JancloseTheRMB1,000revolutionChinatobethesecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012FWeforecastChinassmartphonemarketwillexpandfrom20mnin2010Fto62mnin2012F,andbecometheworldssecondlargestsmartphonemarketaftertheUSbyvolumein2012F.OuraffordabilityanalysisshowsthatRMB1,0002,000smartphoneswilldrive3GsubscribergrowthinChina.WenotethattheiPhoneistargetedatthetop5oftotal3GsubscribersinChina.Wethinkthedifferenceinuserexperienceandassociatedserviceplansbetweenhighendandlowendsmartphoneswillchangethesmartphoneecosystem.AndroidtospurconvergenceofhandsetbrandvendorsandOEMsWebelievetheemergenceoftheAndroidOShasloweredthetechnologybarriersbetweenhandsetbrandvendorseg,Nokia,MotorolacapableofhighendproductdevelopmentandhandsetOEMscapableonlyofhandsetmanufacturingandlowendhandsetdesign.TheselowerbarriersshouldhelphandsetOEMstopenetratemidrangesegmentsandpresentinvestorswithreratingopportunitiesinhandsetOEMs,givenapossibleconvergenceinvaluationbetweenthetwogroups,inourview.3GtransitiontoconsolidateChinesehandsetindustryWethinkthetransitionfrom2Gto3GinChinawillencourageconsolidationinthehandsetOEMindustry,becausesmallvendorsdonothaveareliableupgradepathto3GduetolicensingrestrictionsbetweenMediaTekandQualcomm,andwilllikelyfacechallengesindistributionduetotheshifttoanoperatorcentricmodelin3G.Fromadistributorperspective,weexpectPCandhandsetdistributiontoconverge,especiallyinsmartphones,creatingopportunitiesforexistingPCdistributorssuchasDigitalChinaandSynnex.ToppicksTCLC,BYDEWecallBUYonBYDE,TCLCom,ZTE,andHTCasbeneficiariesinthehandsetvendorsector.Indistribution,wethinkSynnexandGomelookwellplaced.WereiterateourREDUCEratingonMediaTekasapotentialloserfromthe2Gto3Gtransition.NomuraAnalystsNomuraAsiaExJapanResearchLepingHuang,PhD85222521598leping.huangnomura.comDannyChu,CFA85222526209danny.chunomura.comEveJung886221769975eve.jungnomura.comAaronJeng,CFA886221769962aaron.jengnomura.comCandyHuang85222521407candy.huangnomura.comSachinGupta,CFA6564336968sachin.guptanomura.comPankajSuri912240533724pankaj.surinomura.comNomuraU.S.ResearchRomitShah12122984326romit.shahnomura.comSidneyHo,CFA12122984329sidney.honomura.comSanjayChaurasia12122984305sanjay.chaurasia.1nomura.com24January201133358810131515161718202850812Smartphones|ChinaLepingHuang,PhDContentsEntrylevelsmartphoneswhynowWhyarewefocusingonentrylevelsmartphonesnowKeyconclusionsToppicksTCLC,BYDEMarketdynamicsChinasecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012FRMB1,0002,000smartphonestobethemaindriverEntrylevelsmartphoneshaveglobalpotentialCompetitivelandscapeHandsetsupplierchaininChina3Gsmartphonestoreshapehandsetdistribution3GtransitiontoconsolidatehandsetOEMsAndroidtoconvergehandsetbrandsandhandsetOEMsEntrylevelsmartphonestoformadistinctiveecosysteminChinaCompanydynamicsOperatorsHandsetvendorsDistributors/retailersLatestcompanyviewsTCLCommunicationTechBYDElectronicChinaWirelessTechnologiesDigitalChinaZTECorpHTCCorporationGomeElectricalAppliancesQualcommIncMediatekNomura2222242641607277858924January2011inChina3Smartphones|ChinaLepingHuang,PhDSummaryEntrylevelsmartphoneswhynowInthisreport,wediscusstheemergingentrylevelsmartphonetrendfromtheperspectiveofthewholehandsetsupplierchain,coveringchipsetvendors,handsetOEMs,distributorsandoperators.Wediscussthescaleandtimetablefor3GandsmartphonesinChina,analysetheaffordablepricerangeofsmartphonesinChina,andassesstheimpactofsmartphonesonthewholehandsetsupplierchain,especiallywiththeemergenceoftheAndroidOSforChinesehandsetOEMs.WhyarewefocusingonentrylevelsmartphonesnowAfternearlytwoyearsofChinasdevelopmentof3Gsubscribers,thetotalnumberof3Gsubscribershadreached38mnbytheendofOctober2010,progressthatwasfarbehindtheplanfor150mnsubscribersbyend2011setbytheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyMIIT,Chinastelecomregulator.Handsetsareonemajorbottleneckto3Ggrowth.In2011,webelieve3GsubscribergrowthwillbeakeythemeforChinastelecomindustry,andentrylevelsmartphonescouldbeanimportantaccelerantofit.WeareseeingaboominsmartphonedevelopmentamongChinesehandsetOEMs.Mostcompaniesareaimingtocapitaliseonthegrowthopportunitiespresentedby3GinChinaandwanttopenetratethemidrangesegmentoftheglobalhandsetmarket.Suchastepupstrategyhasprovedchallenginginthepast.WelookattheprospectsoftheAndroidOSchangingthepicturethistimearound.Webelievethistrendwillhaveasignificantimpactontheexistingglobalhandsetindustry.Exhibit1.SmartphonesmadebyChinesehandsetvendorsWhynow1ImportantproductstodriveChina3GsubscribernumbersWhynow2AndroidisboomingBrandModelLenovoLePhoneZTEX850KTouchW606HuaweiIdeos/U8150CoolpadW711TCLOT980MeizuM9HuaweiIdeosX5/U8800PhotoWirelessHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMMSMHSPA/GSMHSPA/GSMScreensizeinchTouchscreenProcessorOSCamerampixelsAnnouncedRetailpriceRMB3.7CapacitiveQualcommSnapdragon1GHzAndroid2.13MPMay20102,7002.8ResistiveQualcommMSM7227600MHzAndroid2.13MPJune20108503.5CapacitiveSTEST6715468MHzAndroid2.12MPAug20101,5002.8CapacitiveQualcommMSM7225528MHzAndroid2.23MPSep201011993.5ResistiveSTEPHX6715468MHzAndroid2.12MPSep20101,5002.8ResistiveQualcommMSM7227600MHzAndroid2.12MPSep20101,6003.5CapacitiveSamsungS5PC1101GHzAndroid2.25MPDec20102,5003.8CapacitiveQualcommMSM7230800MHzAndroid2.25MPDec20102,600SourceGSMArena,PCOnline,ZOL.KeyconclusionsWenotethesharesofOEMshavehistoricallytradedatadiscounttohandsetbrands,thoughthatgapisnarrowing.Webelievetheentrybarriersintechnologyandbrandequityarethemainreasonsforthevaluationgap.AndwebelievetheAndroidOSandGoogleasabrandcouldbreakdownthesebarriersstillfurther.NomuraAndroidtospurconvergenceinvaluationsamonghandsetOEMs/brands24January2011May09May10Feb09Mar09Nov09Mar10Aug09Sep09Aug10Sep10Dec09Nov10Feb10Oct09Oct10Jul09Apr09Apr10Jul10Dec10Jan09Jun09Jan10Jun10304Smartphones|ChinaLepingHuang,PhDExhibit2.P/EcomparisonbetweenhandsetOEMandhandsetbrandsHandsetOEMsHandsetbrands252015Entrancebarrier1050Note12monthforwardP/E,handsetbrandsincludesNokiaandAppleComputer,handsetOEMsincludesChinaWireless,BYDElectronicsandTCLCommunications,ApplesforecastisBloombergconsensus,othersareNomuraforecastsSourceNomuraestimatesThefollowingExhibitsshowthehandsetsupplierchaininChina.WehighlightZTE,TCLCom,BYDElectronics,SynnexandGomeaskeybeneficiariesofthisstoryallareratedBUY.WhileweseeQualcomm,ChinaWirelessandDigitalChinaaspotentialbeneficiaries,too,weseeprevailingvaluationsasfair.WethinkMediaTekstandstolosefromthistrend,andwereaffirmourREDUCErating.Exhibit3.3GtransitiontotriggerindustryconsolidationHandsetComponentAACAcoustics2018HKUnimicron3037TTDistributor/RetailerDistributorTellingTelecom00829CHDigitalChina861HKSynnex2347TTHandsetChipsetQualcommQCOMUSMediaTek2454TTSpreadtrumSPQDUSHandsetOEMsOEMZTE763HKHuaweiunlistedRetailerGome493HKConsumerTCLCom2618HKChinaWireless2369HKLenovo992HKOperatorHandsetSoftwareGoogleGOOGUSODM/EMSBYDElectronics285HKFoxconn2038HKChinaMobile941HKChinaTelecom728HKChinaUnicom762HKSourceNomuraresearchNomura24January201165Smartphones|ChinaExhibit4.PositionofChinesehandsetvendorsChinaLepingHuang,PhDOverseas3G2GSourceNomuraresearchToppicksTCLC,BYDEWeinitiatecoverageofTCLCommunicationswithaBUYratingandaPTofHK1136potentialupside,DigitalChinawithaNEUTRALratingandaPTofHK17,andChinaWirelesswithaNEUTRALratingandaPTofHK4.5.WereaffirmourBUYcallsonBYDElectronics,ZTE,SynnexandGome,REDUCEonMediaTek,andNEUTRALonQualcomm.Exhibit5.UniversesnapshotwhatschangedPricePriceVarMethodTicker2618HKCompanynameTCLComActionInitiateRatingBUYCurrencyHKJan208.08target11.0036xFY11P/EReason12InlinewithhandsetOEMsaverage12x2369HKChinaWirelessInitiateNEUTRALHK4.604.5021415premiumtohandsetOEMsbecauseofChinaexposure861HKDigitalChinaInitiateNEUTRALHK16.0417.001xPEG.CompanyisintransitionfromdistributortoITservicesprovider.285HK763HKBYDElectronicZTEunchangedunchangedBUYBUYHKHK5.1329.956.0036.00172010HistoricalfromFY07average245premiumtohistoricalfromFY2005averageSourceNomuraresearchTCLCommunications2618HK,notratedBUY,PTHK11WeinitiateonTCLCommunicationTechnologywithaBUYratingandPTofHK11.0,whichimpliesupsideof36fromcurrentlevels.WebelievethemarkethasyettorecognisethatthecompanyisakeybeneficiaryofthepopularityofsocialnetworkservicesSNSinemergingmarkets.GrowthinthecompanysSNSphoneofferingsandentrylevelsmartphonebusinessofferinvestorsadistinctiveASPandmarginexpansionstorywithinhandsetOEMs,inourview.BYDElectronics285HK,BUY,PTHK6.0WereiterateourBUYcallandPTofHK6.00.WesuggestinvestingaheadoftheFY10resultsannouncement,slatedfortheendofMarch.WebelievethecompanywillbeatconsensusFY10Fearnings,drivenbyatransformationtothehighermarginODMbusinessfromEMStooffsettheimpactofwageinflation.WebelievetheODMbusinesswillcontinuetodriverobustearningsgrowthinFY1112F,backedbystrong3GhandsetdemandinChina.Nomura24January20116Smartphones|ChinaLepingHuang,PhDChinaWireless2369HK,notratedNEUTRAL,PTHK4.50WeinitiatecoverageonChinaWirelessTechnologieswithaNEUTRALratingandaHK4.50PT.WethinkthecompanysstrongRDcapabilityandproductportfoliowillhelptocapitaliseon3GandsmartphonedemandinChina.However,webelievethecompanystillneedstoboostitsmarketingexpensesandlearnhowtomanageitsbrandimagebeforebecominganestablishedbrandhandsetvendoreg,ChinasHTC.Thestocks14.5xFY11FP/Elooksfair,inourview.DigitalChina861HK,notratedNEUTRAL,PTHK17WeinitiateonDigitalChinawithaNEUTRALcallandPTofHK17.00.WelikeDigitalChinaspositionaskeybeneficiaryofthedigitalcityandothernationalITprojectsinChinas12thFiveYearPlan,andseeanyprogressasareratingopportunity.ZTE763HK,BUY,PTHK36WebelievethemarkethaslongseenZTEasatelecomequipmentvendor,butitsterminalhandset,anddatacardbusinessisoneofitskeyrevenuedriversnow26ofsalesinFY10F.LookingtoFY11F,webelieveentrylevelsmartphoneswillhelpZTEtorealisebothmarketshareandmarginexpansion.ReaffirmingBUY,withpricetargetofHK36.HTC2498TT,BUY,PTNT1,000WereaffirmourBUYratingonHTC,givenourviewoffurtherupside,drivenbyexpectedmarketsharegainsonitsleadingtechnologyinhardwareandsoftware,aswellasonrisingbrandawareness.Webelievethecompanyiswellpositionedwithinitsindustrytobenefitfromthetrendofdeviceconvergence.WelikeitsstrategytokeepstrengtheningtheSenseexperience,whichinourviewwillprovetobeanimportantdifferentiatorasthemarketmaturesin2012F.Gome493HK,BUY,PTHK4.30AccordingtoGome,demandfornewproductssuchassmartphoneishighowingtorisingincomesandimprovinglifestyles.WebelievenewproductsbodewellforSSSandsalesefficiencyimprovement,givenrelativelyhighASPs.GomeislikelytoaccelerateitsnewstoreopeningsinFY11F,from150200to200250,andwebelievefasterthanexpectedstoreexpansionwilldriveearningsfromFY11F.WereiterateourBUYratingandPTofHK4.3.QualcommQCOMUS,NEUTRAL,PTUS45QualcommhasstrongseculartailwindsthatshouldhelpitdriverevenuegrowthinFY12F.WeexpectQualcommto1gainshareinthebasebandmarketcurrentsharestandsat40,drivenbythegrowthof3Ghandsetsinemergingmarkets2addUS0.200.25fromdesignwinsintheVerizoniPhone4CDMAchipsetandtheupcomingiPhone5forbaseband,replacingInfineonand3improveitsroyaltyrevenuesduetoagrowing3GsubscriberbaseandotherdatadevicessuchaseReadersandtablets.MediaTek2454TT,REDUCE,PTNT275WemaintainourREDUCEratingandpricetargetofNT275forMediaTekourPTimplies31potentialdownside.WeexpectMediaTektorecordtwoconsecutiveyearsofearningsdeclinestheworstperformanceinthecompanyshistory,followedbyonlyamoderaterecoveryinFY12F.Nomura24January20117Smartphones|ChinaExhibit6.ValuationtableLepingHuang,PhDPriceMarketcapP/ExP/BVxROEBloombergtickerCompanynameRatingCurrencyJan20USmnFY10FFY11FFY10FFY11FFY10FHandsetchipsetQCOMUS2454TTQualcommMediaTekNEUTRALREDUCEUSNT51.3339883,03714,93918.913.817.416.93.55.13.15.214.632.3Handset/PCvendor2618HK285HK2369HK763HK2498TTTCLComBYDElectronicChinaWirelessZTEHTCBUYBUYNEUTRALBUYBUYHKHKHKHKNT8.085.134.6029.958941,1401,4861,24311,03325,17212.69.717.224.318.68.88.114.518.112.65.41.37.53.79.43.81.14.23.17.152.414.350.916.153.4Distributorsandretailers861HK493HKDigitalChinaGomeElectricalNEUTRALBUYHKHK16.042.892,2475,59117.718.415.414.93.62.63.12.321.016.2TelecomServiceProvider941HK728HK762HKChinaMobileChinaTelecomChinaUnicomBUYNEUTRALBUYHKHKHK77.304.5412.06199,32247,21836,83411.621.244.510.818.630.22.41.41.22.11.31.221.86.72.7NoteForQualcommyearendsinSep.ForDigitalChinayearendsinMarch.EstimateshavebeenprovidedaboveforFY11andFY12forthesecompaniesSourceNomuraestimatesNomura24January20118Smartphones|ChinaLepingHuang,PhDChangingmarketplaceMarketdynamicsChinasecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012FWeforecastChinas3Gsubscriberbasewillreach100mnbyend2011Fandpassthe150mnend2011FtargetsetbytheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,MIIT,Chinastelecomsregulatorwithin2012F.Wethinkaccelerationin3GsubscribergrowthisbeingdrivenbyoperatorshandsetsubsidypoliciesExhibit,belowleft,anincreasingnumberofaffordable3Ghandsets,andenhanced3GnetworkcoverageExhibit,belowright.WebelieveentrylevelsmartphonesbelowRMB1,000,orUS150willbeakeydriverofthistrend.WeforecastChinas3Ghandsetmarketwillgrowfrom37mnin2010Fto151mnin2012F,duringwhichtimesmartphonepenetrationwillrisefrom6to17.Inthiscontext,weforecastthesmartphonemarketinChinawillexpandfrom20mnin2010Fto79mnin2013F58CAGRbetween2010and2013.Our3Gsubscriberforecast150mnby3Q12FExhibit7.China3GsubscriberforecastsExhibit8.ChinasmartphoneshipmentforecastsmnWCDMALHSmnunitsEVDOLHS350300EVDOLHSTDLHS3GpenetrationrateRHS263025908070TDSCDMALHSWCDMALHS2GLHSSmartphoneRateRHS13.817.0181614250200150100505111820151056050403020105.910.1121086420000FY10FY11FY12FY13FY10FY11FY12FY13SourceGartner,NomuraestimatesExhibit9.HandsetsubsidyforecastsSourceGartner,NomuraestimatesExhibit10.Progressin3GnetworkrolloutRMBbn504540CULHSCTLHSCMLHSofrevenueRHS76kBS400350FY09F20101H10201135302520151050543210300250200150100500FY08FY09FY10FFY11FFY12FCMTDCTCDMACUWCDMASourceCompanyData,NomuraestimatesSourceCompanyData,NomuraestimatesLookingatChinas3Gsmartphonemarketfromaglobalperspective,weconcludethatChinawillpasstheUKtobecomethesecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012F.NomuraChinatobeworldssecondlargestsmartphonemarketby2012F24January2011

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