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外文翻译经济危机英文版.doc

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外文翻译经济危机英文版.doc

目前拉脱维亚正在经历严重的经济危机,相似的情况表现在与经济相关的房地产市场上。拉脱维亚的例子是不合理而且太迅速和失衡发展的,这消极地影响了国民经济和今后房地产市场的发展。拉脱维亚的居民为房地产花费的抵押贷款不得不在许多年后偿还。但是真正的问题是价格很可能不再达到早先的水平,因此意味着信贷资金花费在被人为夸大价格的物产上。房地产市场的未来发展将在较大程度上受经济因素的影响。同时房地产市场也许在整体经济复苏之前恢复,例如,由以前没被提及的因素如投资者活动、政府政策,人口数据和其他因素引起。来源DIDZISADMIDIĤS,JANISZVANITAJS,PHDPERSPECTIVESOFINNOVATIONS,ECONOMICSBUSINESS,2009,VOL35254INDUSTRIES,CONCEPTS,SECTORALPOLICIESINDUSTRIES,CONCEPTS,SECTORALPOLICIESKEYWORDSREALESTATEMARKET,ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT,ECONOMYOFLATVIAABSTRACTTHISARTICLEREVIEWSTHEREALESTATEMARKETDEVELOPMENTDYNAMICSOVERTHELASTDECADEINLATVIATHEARTICLEDESCRIBESTHEINFLUENCEOFVARIOUSECONOMICFACTORSONTHEREALESTATEMARKETTHESEFACTORSAREGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT,UNEMPLOYMENT,CREDITINGAMOUNT,RETAILSALESTURNOVER,ANDOTHERSTHEARTICLEPROVIDESINSIGHTINTOTHEMOSTCRITICALDEVELOPMENTPERIODSOFECONOMYANDPROPERTYMARKETINLATVIAANDEXPLAINSTHEIRREGULARITIESINTRODUCTIONDEVELOPMENTOFREALESTATEMARKETINLATVIAOVERTHELASTDECADEHASBEENRAPIDANDDYNAMICITATTRACTEDGREATATTENTIONFROMLOCALPEOPLEASWELLASFROMFOREIGNINVESTORSVARIOUSACTIVITIESINREALESTATEMARKETCHANGEDTHEATTITUDEOFPEOPLEINLATVIATOWARDSREALESTATEASTHEYREALIZEDTHATREALESTATEHADVALUEDURINGTHELASTDECADETHEREWASOBSERVABLESIGNIFICANTINCREASEOFINVESTMENTSINREALESTATE,ESPECIALLYAFTERLATVIABECAMEAMEMBEROFTHEEUROPEANUNIONON1STMAY,2004ITWASTHETIMEWHENMAJORITYOFMOSTFOREIGNCOMMERCIALBANKSSTRUGGLEDFORMARKETSHAREBYGIVINGOUTMORTGAGELOANSAND,THUS,CONTRIBUTINGTOTHEGROWTHOFDEMANDINREALESTATEMARKETTHEMARKETPRICEINCERTAINSEGMENTSOFTHEREALESTATEMARKETGREWBYMORETHAN50PERYEAR,WHICHINITSTURNCAUSEDUNBALANCEDDEVELOPMENTOFTHEMARKET,NAMELY,SALARIESGREWMUCHSLOWERTHANTHEPRICESOFREALESTATEHOWEVER,SINCE2007THEREALESTATEMARKETISEXPERIENCINGCONSIDERABLECHANGESWHICHMOSTLYAPPEARASDECREASEOFPRICESWITHMANYRESULTINGCONSEQUENCESTHEMARKETPRICEINCERTAINSEGMENTSOFTHEREALESTATEMARKETGREWBYMORETHAN50PERYEAR,WHICHINITSTURNCAUSEDUNBALANCEDDEVELOPMENTOFTHEMARKET,NAMELY,SALARIESGREWMUCHSLOWERTHANTHEPRICESOFREALESTATEHOWEVER,SINCE2007THEREALESTATEMARKETISEXPERIENCINGCONSIDERABLECHANGESWHICHMOSTLYAPPEARASDECREASEOFPRICESWITHMANYRESULTINGCONSEQUENCESTHISARTICLESETSOUTDATAABOUTTHEREALESTATEMARKETDEVELOPMENTSINCE2000;ITDISCUSSESDETAILSOFMACROECONOMICSITUATIONINTHISPERIODTHESEGMENTOFREALESTATEMARKETANALYZEDINTHISARTICLEISSERIALAPARTMENTSINRIGAFOLLOWINGECONOMYDESCRIBINGFACTORSWEREEXAMINEDGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT,UNEMPLOYMENT,INFLATION,RETAILTURNOVER,ANDOTHERSTHEARTICLEREVIEWSTHESTUDYWHICHISCONCENTRATEDONFINDINGCORRELATIONBETWEENDIFFERENTMACROECONOMICFACTORSANDTHEDEVELOPMENTOFREALESTATEMARKET,ANDCONSIDERINGTHESECORRELATIONSTRYINGTOPREDICTPOSSIBLEDEVELOPMENTOFREALESTATEMARKETINFUTUREREALESTATEMARKEDURINGTHELASTDECADETHEREALESTATEMARKETINLATVIAHASDEVELOPEDVERYDYNAMICALLYUNTILTHEFIRSTHALFOF2007THEREWASOBSERVEDAVERYHIGHACTIVITYOFTHEMARKET,WHICHWASCOMBINEDWITHRISINGPRICES;UNFORTUNATELY,ITCHANGEDTOPRICEDECREASEINTHESECONDHALFOF2007SOWASTHESITUATIONWITHSERIALAPARTMENTMARKETINRIGASERIALAPARTMENTSOCCUPYTHEMAJORPARTOFTHEHOUSINGMARKETFACILITIESINRIGAAND,ALTHOUGHTHEYWEREBUILTMOSTLYBEFORELATVIAREGAINEDTHEINDEPENDENCEIN1991,THEYAREINDEMANDIN2000SERIALAPARTMENTAVERAGEPRICEPERSQUAREMETERWASABOUTEUR250,COMPARINGTOTHEAVERAGEPRICEEUR1720FORONESQUAREMETERINAPRIL2007INTHEPERIODUNTIL2007THEREWERESEVERALMONTHSWHENTHEPRICEINCREASEPERMONTHWAS5ANDMORE“THEPRICESINCREASEDINFACTEQUALLYINALLDISTRICTS;ALSOHITHERTOINACTIVEDISTRICTSWEREBECOMINGACTIVE”OFCOURSESMALLERAPARTMENTSCOMPARINGTHEPRICEPERSQUAREMETERWEREMOREEXPENSIVETHATCOMPARATIVELYLARGEAPARTMENTSOVERTIMETHEPRICESOFTHEADVERTISEDAPARTMENTSRAISEDANDPEOPLEWEREOFTHEOPINIONTHATTHEPRICESWILLNEVERDROPAGAIN,ALTHOUGHMANYOFTHEMWAITEDFORTHEPRICESTABILIZATIONTHEREWERECOMMONEXPERTOPINIONSTHATTHEPRICESWILLBECOMESTABLEANDTHEYDONOTCOMPLYWITHTHEREALMARKETVALUEANYMORENONETHELESSTHEMARKETINDICATEDTHEOPPOSITEAFTERAPRIL2007THEMARKETPRICECONSTANTLYREDUCEDANDTHEPROCESSCONTINUESUPTILLNOWINSEPTEMBER2009SERIALAPARTMENTMARKETPRICEWASEUR487PERONESQUAREMETER,WHICHACTUALLYMEANSTHATTHEMARKETPRICEHASFALLENBYMORETHAN70FROMTHEHIGHESTPOINTTHEMAJORPROBLEMOFLATVIA’SREALESTATEMARKETISRELATEDTOTHEFACTTHATTHEPRICEWASTOOOVERESTIMATEDANDCURRENTLYITIS,POSSIBLY,UNDERESTIMATEDTHEMARKETHASEXPERIENCEDVERYRAPIDFLUCTUATIONSINTHERELATIVELYVERYSHORTPERIODOFTIME,WHICHINSOMEWAYSHASUNDERMINEDTHEVALUESOFTHEPOPULATIONSINCETHEGREATESTDECLINEINMAY2009THEREHAVEBEENOBSERVEDFIRSTINDICATIONSOFSERIALAPARTMENTMARKETSTABILIZATIONANDCURRENTLYTHEAVERAGEPRICESEVERALLASTMONTHSRANGESAROUNDEUR500PERSQUAREMETERWHILETHEPRICECONTINUESSLIGHTLYTODECREASETHEDEALERSARENOLONGERWILLINGTOSELLFORTHATPRICEANDREMOVETHEAPARTMENTSFROMTHEOFFER,THUSLIMITINGTHEOVERALLSUPPLYCONSEQUENTLYASITUATIONARISESWHENDESPITETHENEGATIVESIGNALSFROMTHEECONOMICSECTOR,ITSNEGATIVEIMPACTONTHEREALESTATEMARKETISSMALLANDUNABLETOSTRONGLYAFFECTITINSHORTTERMHOWEVER,OBSERVINGTHEDEVELOPMENTOFMAINFACTORSDESCRIBINGTHEECONOMICALSITUATIONINTHEPREVIOUSPERIODSTHERECANBEINDICATEDSOMEREGULARITIESOFTHEFACTORSIMPACTINGTHEREALESTATEMARKETCHARACTERIZATIONOFECONOMICSTHEGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTOFLATVIAINRECENTYEARSHASINCREASEDVERYRAPIDLYBYMORETHAN10PERYEARWHICH,OFCOURSE,WASTOOFASTFORTHEECONOMYOFLATVIAECONOMYDEVELOPEDUNEVENLY,THEREWASHIGHINFLATIONANDHIGHDOMESTICCONSUMPTIONATTHESAMETIME,WHICHISMAINLYTHECAUSEOFTHEHIGHGDPCURRENTLYLATVIAISNOTABLETOKEEPPOSITIVEGDPINCREASE;SINCETHESECONDQUARTEROF2008,WHENTHEFIRSTNEGATIVETENDENCYWASRECORDED,LATVIA’SGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTDECREASESINTHEFIRSTQUARTEROF2009THEECONOMICDECLINEWAS18COMPARINGTOTHESAMEPERIODLASTYEAR,WHICHLEADSTOTHECONCLUSIONABOUTTHESITUATIONOFECONOMICSTHISFINDINGWASUNPLEASANTSURPRISEREMEMBERINGTHEHIGHANDSTABLEDEVELOPMENTOFLASTYEARSTHEDECLINEOFGDPISONLYSUMMARIZINGCOMPLEXSITUATIONOFECONOMYTHEPOPULATIONATTHESAMETIMEISVERYCONFUSEDABOUTTHEPOSSIBLEDEVELOPMENTSOFECONOMYANDTHEPESSIMISTICPREDICTIONSCONSEQUENTLYRESPONDTOTHEREALESTATEMARKET,NAMELY,PEOPLECHOOSETODEFERTHEIRPURCHASES,EVENTHOSEWHOCANAFFORDTHEBUYINGTHEIMPACTOFPRICEDROPISTHESAMEASINTHECASEOFOVERALLPRICEDEFLATION,THATIS,PURCHASESAREDELAYEDANDMONEYISSPENTONLYFORTHEVERYNECESSARYGOODS,THATIS,EVERYONEISWAITINGFORTHEPRICEDROPALTHOUGHTHISSITUATIONCANCHANGEPOSITIVELY,IFTHEFALLINPRICESWILLCONTINUENEXTMONTHS,THATWILLSHOWTHEVERYLOWESTPOINTREACHEDANDTHATCOULDALTERTHEMOODOFTHEPOPULATIONDROPINGDPISACCOMPANIEDBYTHERISEOFUNEMPLOYMENTRATEWHICHISACOMMONPROBLEMIREUROPEBUTINLATVIAISHASBECOMEVERYSERIOUSWHENINMAY2008UNEMPLOYMENTRATEWASONLY48WHICHISFAIRLYLOW,INAUGUST2009ALREADY123OFECONOMICALLYACTIVEINHABITANTSWEREUNEMPLOYED,BESIDESTHERATETENDSTOINCREASETHEEXAMPLEOFLATVIAREAFFIRMSTHEDESCRIBEDSITUATIONINECONOMICALTHEORYTHATEMPLOYMENTRATEISALAGGINGFACTOROFECONOMICCYCLEFLUCTUATIONSINTHEPERIODWHENTHEDECLINEOFECONOMICSALREADYSTARTED,UNEMPLOYMENTRATESTILLDECREASED,ANDONLYAFTERAPPROXIMATELYSIXMONTHSITSTARTEDTOINCREASERAPIDLYALSOTHEOFFICIALDATAOFAVERAGEWAGEAPPROVESTHATSALARYISNOTVERYELASTICINTHEPERIODOFCRISES,UNLIKETHENUMBEROFWORKPLACESWHICHISVERYSENSITIVEFACTOR“ALSOTHELAGGINGINDICATORSEMPLOYMENTANDINFLATIONCONTRIBUTETOTHEPROGNOSISOFECONOMICALCYCLES”GODS,P182HOWEVERAFTEREXAMININGTHEREALESTATEMARKETITCANBECONCLUDEDTHATTHEDECLINEOFTHEMARKETMOSTLYCORRESPONDSWITHTHEPERIODSWHENTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEINCREASESTHEFIGURE1DEPICTSTHEDYNAMICSOFSERIALAPARTMENTMARKETANDUNEMPLOYMENTRATEINTHEPERIODFROM2000UNTIL2009ASITCANBECLEARLYSEENBOTHFACTORSDEVELOPINOPPOSITEDIRECTIONS,NAMELY,WHENTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEDECREASES,THEPRICESINREALESTATEMARKETINCREASESANDVICEVERSAINTHEPERIODAFTERAPRIL2007,WHENTHEREALESTATEMARKETWASEXPERIENCINGADECLINE,THEDECREASEOFUNEMPLOYMENTRATECONTINUEDFORSOMETIMEBUTTHEPERIODOFRAPIDUNEMPLOYMENTRATEINCREASECORRESPONDSWITHEQUALLYRAPIDDROPOFPRICELEVELINSERIALAPARTMENTMARKETREALIZINGTHATTHETRANSACTIONSINTHISMARKETSEGMENT,ASWELLASINTHEAPARTMENTMARKETINGENERALAREMAINLYMADEBETWEENPRIVATEINDIVIDUALS,ITISSELFEVIDENTTHATTHEINCREASEOFUNEMPLOYMENTRATENEGATIVELYAFFECTSTHEPRICESOFREALESTATEMARKETFACILITIESOFCOURSE,UNEMPLOYMENTRATEISNOTTHEONLYNEGATIVEFACTOROFFALLINPRICESINTHISREALESTATEMARKETSEGMENTTHISDECLINEPERIODISACCOMPANIEDBYNEGATIVEEXPECTATIONSOFTHEFUTURE,INSTABILITYOFTHEGOVERNMENT,WHICHDELAYEDREFORMSOFTHEREALESTATEMARKETTAXPOLICY,INACTIVITYOFCOMMERCIALBANKCREDITING,ASWELLASTHEGLOBALCRISISINOTHERCOUNTRIESONEOFTHEINDICATORSTHATVERYPRECISELYDESCRIBETHEPUBLICATTITUDETOWARDSECONOMICACTIVITYISRETAILSALESTURNOVERRETAILTRADETURNOVERHASMOREDIRECTIMPACTONCOMMERCIALMARKET,WHICHEXPERIENCESASIMILARSCENARIOASTHESERIALAPARTMENTMARKET,WITHONLYASLIGHTLAG,BUTITINDIRECTLYAFFECTSORINDICATESALSOTHEPUBLICMOODANDWITHITALSOTHEPOTENTIALAPARTMENTMARKETACTIVITIESTHEFIGURE2SHOWSTHEREGULARITIESBETWEENTHEINCREASEANDDECLINEPERIODSOFSERIALAPARTMENTMARKETANDRETAILTURNOVERDYNAMICSATTENTIONSHOULDBEPAIDTOTHEFACTTHATRETAILTURNOVERINTHISDIAGRAMISTHERELATIVEFIGURE,INTHISCASEINCREASERATECOMPAREDTOTHERESPECTIVEPERIODINTHEPREVIOUSPERIODSTHEDIAGRAMSHOWSTHATWHILETHESERIALAPARTMENTMARKETISINCREASING,ALSORETAILTURNOVERMOSTLYMAINTAINSPOSITIVEINCREASE,THATMEANSTHERETAILTURNOVERINCREASESABOUTTHESAMETIMEWHENTHESERIALAPARTMENTMARKETSTARTSTODECLINE,ALSOTHERETAILTURNOVERINCREASESTARTTOSLOWDOWN,WHICHLATERCHANGESTOTHETURNOVERDECLINEORDECREASECOMPARINGTOTHERESPECTIVEPERIODLASTYEARAFTERJOININGTHEEUROPEANUNIONINVESTMENTAMOUNTINLATVIAINCREASEDANDTHATWASMOSTLYDONEBYCREDITING,NAMELY,CREDITINSTITUTIONSWEREVERYINTERESTEDINCREDITINGTHEPURCHASEOFESTATEPROPERTYBYOFFERINGVERYFAVORABLECONDITIONSANDTHISWASLARGELYCAUSEDBYTHECOMPETITIONAMONGTHEBANKSDURINGLASTYEARSTHEATTITUDEOFINHABITANTSTOWARDSCREDITINGWASLARGELYCHANGEDTHEDEMANDINTHISMARKETSEGMENTANDOTHERREALESTATEMARKETSEGMENTSWEREINCREASINGLYAFFECTEDBYMORTGAGELOANSWHENINTHEBEGINNINGOF2000THETOTALMORTGAGELOANSISSUEDTOTHERESIDENTSAMOUNTEDTOALMOST60MILLIONLATS,INTHESECONDHALFOF2009THETOTALAMOUNTOFISSUEDCREDITSEXCEEDS8BILLIONLATSTHEMACROECONOMICALPROBLEMISTHATTHEMOSTPARTOFTHOSECREDITSWERERECEIVEDATTHETIMEWHENTHEPRICESWEREHIGHERTHANTHEYARECURRENTLYANDCREDITREMAININGAMOUNTISGREATERTHANTHEPOSSIBLEVALUEOFREALESTATEPROPERTIESTHISCONSIDERABLYLIMITSTHEPOSSIBILITYTOSELLTHEPROPERTYCONCLUSIONSTHEREALESTATEMARKETINLATVIAHASSEENASHARPINCREASEINPRICESANDANEQUALLYSHARPDROPINPRICES,WHICHHAVECAUSEDMACROECONOMICPROBLEMSINLATVIAE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