chen房地产形势交流.ppt

April 2010,2,Contents 目录,Introducing Mapletree 丰树简介 为什么中国楼市如此的引人关注？ 3. 国务院“新国十条”对楼市有什么影响？ 4. 广州地区楼市还能不能投资？,3,Introducing Mapletree 丰树简介,4,100% owned by Temasek Holdings; 丰树产业是新加坡淡马锡集团100%控股的独资子公司； Formed in Dec 2000 to hold non-port property assets transferred by Port Authority of Singapore (PSA) to Temasek Holdings; 丰树产业于2000年12月由新加坡港务局的房产部分离而成立； Managed and owned S$11.8 billion of assets comprising office, logistics, industrial and retail/lifestyle properties in Singapore and Asia; 到目前为止，丰树产业在亚洲管理并拥有价值新币118亿（约合人民币552亿）的资产，包括办公楼、零售、物流、工业、高科技产业园等； Extensive regional presence with offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, Chennai, Gurgaon and Tokyo . 丰树产业在北京、上海、广州、香港、吉隆坡、胡志明市、钦奈、古尔冈和东京等城市设有分公司。,Our profile 公司简介,5,Jiangsu 江苏 Mapletree Wuxi Logistics Park 丰树无锡物流园区,Beijing 北京 Mapletree Beijing Airport EPZ 丰树北京机场出口加工区,Tianjin 天津 Mapletree Tianjin Airport Logistics Park 丰树天津空港物流园区 Mapletree Tianjin Port HaiFeng Bonded Logistics Park 丰树天津港海丰保税物流园区,Xian Future City 西安未来城 Retail & Residential 商场、住宅,Guangdong- Foshan 广东佛山 Retail & Residential 商场、住宅,China Experience and Expertise 中国地产项目,Chengdu Sichuan 四川成都 Retail, SA & Residential 商场、服务式公寓、住宅,Mapletree Tower (Beijing) 丰树大厦（北京）,Shanghai 上海 Mapletree Yangshan Bonded Logistics Park 丰树洋山保税港物流园区,6,NANHAI BUSINESS CITY, GUANGDONG 佛山南海富丰新城 Shareholding 股份 : MIC Fund 丰树中印基金 80%, Chinese partner 中方合作伙伴 20% Land Area 土地面积 : Total land area of approximately 421,847 sqm 总占地面积约636.03亩（约42万平 方米） Mixed Use 物业类型 : Integrated development comprising retail, office, hotel and high end residential to be developed over 5 phases 将分5期开发为包含购物广场商业 园住宅酒店及酒店式服务公寓 的大型综合项目。 GFA 建筑面积 : Initial Phase I 第一期 Residential 住宅 - 278,600 sqm Retail 商场 71,000 sqm,MIC FUND - APPROVED PROJECTS,7,为何中国房地产如此引人注目？,8,“家” 与 HOME”国人爱买房？,国人爱置业的强大文化传统 投资需求无法释放 通涨和人民币升值预期 社会保障制度仍未完善,9,国人爱买房？,中国地少人多，这是个不争的实事。管理层要保住十八亿亩土地红线，充分保护土地可利用资源。于是乎，土地是依然稀缺的。 中国人有许多美德，勤俭节约，持家过日。无论是养儿养女，更要养房，较多人这样认为，家里有房心中不慌。 投资与投机心理。由于人们都相信，房屋从长远来看肯定是增值的，还是抗通货膨胀的最好方式，因此，人们倾向于将闲钱投入买房，把买房作为投资方式之一。像前几年那样，房价上涨过快，短期内可能获得巨大差价，更会激起人们的买房投资欲望。最近，买房投资已经成为人们一种新的理财观念 攀比和炫耀心理。,10,国务院“新国十条”对楼市的影响,11,新国十条看点综述,看点一：停发第三套房贷款 关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知要求，商品住房价格过高、上涨过快、供应紧张的地区，商业银行可根据风险状况，暂停发放购买第三套及以上住房贷款 看点二：遏制外地炒房者 通知要求，对不能提供1年以上当地纳税证明或社会保险缴纳证明的非本地居民暂停发放购买住房贷款。地方人民政府可根据实际情况，采取临时性措施，在一定时期内限定购房套数。 看点三：物业税渐行渐近 通知要求发挥税收政策对住房消费和房地产收益的调节作用。财政部、税务总局要加快研究制定引导个人合理住房消费和调节个人房产收益的税收政策。 看点四：问责制强化执行力 通知指出，各地区、各有关部门必须充分认识房价过快上涨的危害性，认真落实中央确定的房地产市场调控政策，采取坚决的措施，遏制房价过快上涨，促进民生改善和经济发展。建立考核问责机制，对稳定房价、推进保障性住房建设工作不力，影响社会发展和稳定的，要追究责任。,12,新政出台背景,1、今年经济工作三大目标：调结构、防通胀、保增长，而房地产开发的赚钱效应成为经济调结构的一大障碍。 2、高房价严重压抑居民消费需求，使得巨大的消费潜力得不到释放，同时削弱了国家刺激消费的政策效果。 3、2009年房价超越2007年高位并持续上涨，高房价成为民生重大问题，政府调控房地产的决心非常大。房价、推进保障性住房建设工作不力，影响社会发展和稳定的，要追究责任。,13,新政出台起因,政策出台起因： 1、2010年3月份，全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨11.7%，环比上涨“1.1%”；市场无视政策调控，房价呈现持续上涨态势； 2、“两会”刚召开完，地王再出，高价地从一线城市向二三线城市蔓延，房价上涨预期加剧；与今年房地产政策调控的稳定市场预期目标背道而驰； 3、去年房地产市场销售强力回暖，开发放缓，导致今年上半年供应持续偏紧，而累积的“刚性需求”旺盛，支撑房价持续向上攀升； 4、5月前后是楼市传统的销售旺季，在目前这样的供需状况、市场预期下，容易引起房价再次飙升，增加调控的难度。,14,广州地区楼市还能不能投资？,China - RID - Investment - South EMC Meeting 8 Mar 10,16,February is a traditional low season for due to the Chinese New Year Holiday. Foshan Buyers adopt the “wait and see” approach. Reduction in transaction volume and average selling price are observed. HK and national developers continue to acquire lands actively. 2. Guangzhou Transaction volume reduced but selling price sustained. 3. Shenzhen Transaction volume reduced but selling price increased due to launching of high-end products in the core areas. 4. Shanghai Residential transaction volume decrease due to low season and tightened govt measures. Developers actively acquire land.,Executive Summary,2.0 Market Update (Appendix 2.1 - 2.4),Source: S,Area Sold (000m2),Current Stock: 4.0 million m2,/m2,Appendix 2.2.1 Residential Market Update Guangzhou,Low season - Chinese New Year holiday Transaction volume decreased Average transacted price remained stable. It has increased by 46% year-on-year.,Appendix 2.2.2 Residential Projects in Guangzhou,Located in Fangcun of Liwan District, which is a big residential cluster in fringe area of Guangzhou-Foshan. Around 300 units sold in Jan.,Located in Tianhe District of Guangzhou, with dual metro line connection. Planned usage of office but will be strata-title sold as serviced apartment and managed by Marriot. Total stock: 376 units 50sqm (1BD) and 180sqm (5BD) sold out in Feb,Fangcun Cluster,逸彩新世界,NBC,Source: Foshan Construction Bureau, Jing Wei Consultancy,/sqm,Units,Guicheng:,Chancheng:,RID/South-p19,Appendix 2.1.1 Residential Market Update Urban Foshan,Sales price in Guicheng decreased because low-end product such as “星晖园” has a large percentage of transaction volume Transaction volume decreased dramatically due to the CNY holiday and the market is full of atmosphere of “wait and see”,.,Feb 10 : price increased 48.9% y-o-y; -15.1% m-o-m. Feb 10: transaction volume -74.9% m-o-m.,Sales price remains stable and main projects keep stock. Transaction volume decreased due to the CNY holiday,Feb 10 : price increased 40.1% y-o-y; -2.0% m-o-m. Feb 10: transaction volume -28.3% m-o-m.,There are only 4 high-rise and 5 low-rise (8-storey) blocks total 100,000sqm yet to be launched. Efficiency rate is 83% whilst clear ceiling height is 3m. Best selling units are still 130sqm (3-bedroom) and 146sqm (3-bedroom+1 terrace that can be converted to extra bedroom).,Appendix 2.1.2 Benchmark Projects in Guicheng, Foshan,Other Upcoming Projects,Source: Sales Representatives, S, Jing Wei Consultancy,Poly Garden ( 保利花园） Apartment located Foping yi Rd of Qiandenghu Area ,Chancheng District,Source: Sales Representatives, S, Jing Wei Consultancy,Appendix 2.1.3 -Benchmark Projects in Chancheng, Foshan,One of the CapitaLand projects in Chancheng launched new products in Dec but kept a low profile with very limited advertising. Acceptance from the market is ok.,Unit Type: 3-4 bedrooms (130-180sqm) ,total 758 units. The project has achieved overall 19 % sale progress since open-up. AV: 3,448psm; Used international architect + LDI + M&E Consultant,Riverside Ville (凯德瀚城) Apartment located aside Dongping River in Chancheng District,Unit Type: 2 bedrooms (71sqm) 3 bedroom (120 sqm) bareshell , total 2,000units,A.V: 5610psm ( transaction date 2007);,Evian Uptown (招商. 依云上城) - Apartment located in jnction of Kuiqi Rd and Guilan Rd in Chancheng District,Site Area : 150,000 sqm PR : 3.5 CFA :360,000 sqm,Merchant Real Estate project in Chancheng launched phase 1 on 19 Dec and sold out on day.,Area Sold (000m2),/m2,Current Stock: 3.9 million m2,Appendix 2.3.1 Residential Market Update Shenzhen,Source: S,Transaction volume redu