2011年二季度上海甲级写字楼市场报告.pdf

/china source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 q-o-q change 环比变化 2.7%11.8% 11.4%-17.5% rental 租金 vacancy rate 空置率 capital value 售价 gross yield 收益率 y-o-y change 同比变化 2011 outlook 2011年预期 (percentage point百分点) highlights shanghai ranked as chinas most commercially competitive city in 2010, the third consecutive year the city has been awarded that title. three new projects were launched in shanghais grade a office market during the second quarter, adding 180,500 square meters of new supply. vacancy rates in shanghais grade a office market were up 1.0 percent over the first quarter set- tling at 10.6 percent, as several new projects were launched. demand remained strong and average rental rates rose 2.7 percent over the previous quar- ter, and 11.8 percent year on year. favorable market conditions led some landlords to increase asking rental rates by 5 to 10 percent in the first half of the year. 报告要点 上海荣获2010年中国最具竞争力城市称号， 且连 续第三年蝉联该称号。 第二季度共有三栋甲级写字楼竣工并交付使用， 共带来约180,500平方米的甲级写字楼新供应。 本季度因几个新项目入市， 致使上海甲级写字楼 空置率扩大1.0百分点至10.6%。 写字楼需求仍旧旺 盛， 本季甲级写字楼租金见涨， 环比增长2.7%， 同比增长11.8%。 得益于良好的市场前景预测， 业主们纷纷采用更 高的租金定价， 今年上半年提租比例约在5%到 10%之间。 overall market review shanghai ranked as the most commercially competitive city on the chinese mainland for the third year in a row in 2010, according to a joint report issued by the ministry of commerce and renmin university. the comprehensive ranking, launched in 2008, was based on more than 100 component indices, including infrastructure, retail sales, quality of services and interaction with other cities. as shanghai further develops into a global center for finance, trade and shipping, the commercial market will see increasingly strong growth. in the second quarter, the fundamentals of shanghais economy remained robust with a series of government cooling measures targeting rising infl ation and excess liquidity. three new projects were launched in the office market during the second quarter, adding 180,500 square meters of new supply. two ifc, lujiazui fund tower, and lujiazui investment tower, all located in pudong district, came on line during the period. the vacancy rate in shanghais grade a office market was 10.6 percent, up 1.0 percent over the first quarter of 2011, while average rental rates were up 2.7 percent over the previous quarter. supply, demand and vacancy the strong fundamentals of shanghais economy and the infl ow of foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry kept demand for grade a office space robust in the second quarter of 2011. the citys economy continued to grow even as the government introduced a series of measures aimed at tackling infl ation and excess liquidity. in the first quarter, gross domestic product was up 8.5 percent over the previous year, while real estate investment continued its upward trend, with a 9.5 percent increase in the first five months of 2011. contracted foreign direct investment rose 26.0 percent over the same period of 2010, with actual foreign direct investment absorbed by tertiary industry 42.2 percent higher than the same period in the previous year. shanghai 上海 grade a office market 甲级写字楼市场 the knowledge report | q2 2011 | grade a office office data and indicators in q2 2011 2011年第二季度主要办公楼市场数据 整体市场回顾 根据一份商务部与人民大学联合发布的报告， 上海获得2010年中国内地 最具竞争力城市称号， 连续第三年蝉联该项殊荣。 这份综合排行始于2008 年， 基于超过100个指数评定， 包括基础设施， 商业零售， 服务质量以及城际 互动等。 随着上海进一步向着全球金融， 贸易和航运中心发展， 商业市场增 长势头将越发强劲。 今年二季度， 上海经济处于稳健运行的良好态势中。 政府也相应出台了一系 列旨在抑制通货膨胀与控制流动性过盛问题的紧缩政策。 第二季度， 三栋甲级写字楼相继落成， 为市场带来180,500平方米的甲级写 字楼新供应。 这三个项目均坐落于浦东， 分别是国金中心二期， 陆家嘴基金 大厦与陆家嘴投资大厦。 本季度上海甲级写字楼空置率上升至10.6%， 较今年一季度扩大1.0百分点； 甲级写字楼租金环比增长2.7%。 供应， 需求及空置情况 上海经济保持稳定发展以及第三产业利用外商直接投资占比不断提高， 使得 二季度上海甲级写字楼市场需求旺盛。 政府出台了一系列旨在控制通胀与流动性过盛的政策， 城市经济依旧稳步增 长， 第一季度， 国民生产总值同比增长8.5%， 房地产投资依旧保持上升趋势， 今年前五个月， 房地产投资总额同比增长9.5%。 第一季度合同外商直接投资同 比增长26.0%， 其中第三产业吸收实际外商直接投资同比增长42.2%。 p. 2 | colliers international the knowledge report | q2 2011 | grade a officethe knowledge report | q2 2011 | grade a office rent analysis租金分析 notable transactions completed during this period include: ipsos china leasing 5,400 square meters at jingan districts westgate mall; hengda real estate leasing 3,000 square meters at huangpu districts carlton building; groupon china leasing 1,500 square meters at manpo international plaza in changning district; and estee lauder leasing 660 square meters at the centre in xuhui district. on the supply front, two ifc was completed during the second quarter, add- ing 122,160 square meters of prime office space to the market. developed by sun hung kai, two ifc is the north tower of the shanghai ifc development, and comprises a 45-story retail and office tower. asking rents for the project, located on pudongs century avenue, ranged from rmb10 to 12 per square meter per day, with investment management company lord abbett and the bank of montreal pre-leasing 2,000 square meters and 1,500 square meters respectively. the launch of the lujiazui fund tower and lujiazui investment tower, both located in pudongs zhuyuan area, added 58,329 square meters of new supply to the grade a office market. both buildings were developed by the shanghai lujiazui finance & trade zone development company. asking rents ranged from rmb5.5 to 7.5 per square meter per day. vacancy rates in shanghais grade a office market were up 1.0 percent over the first quarter of 2011 settling at 10.6 percent, as several new projects were launched. vacancy rates in pudongs zhuyuan area rose to 21.5 percent, owing to the new supply contributed by the aforementioned developments. down- town vacancy rates were the lowest, with huangpu and luwan districts at 4.2 and 5.5 percent respectively, according to a survey by colliers international. 高力国际 figure 4 shanghai grade a office average eff ective rent by district 图 4 上海甲级写字楼分区平均实际租金 figure 3 shanghai grade a office eff ective rent and growth rate 图 3 上海甲级写字楼实际租金和增长率 在供应方面，第二季度国金中心二期交付使用，给甲级写字楼市场带来 122,160平方米的新增供应。由新鸿基地产开发的国金中心二期是国际金融 中心项目的北座，共有45层，设有高档商场与写字楼。该项目位于浦东世 纪大道，租金报价约在每天每平方米人民币10至12元。目前，诺德基金管 理有限公司与蒙特利尔银行分别预租了2,000平方米与1,500平方米。 位于浦东竹园地区的陆家嘴基金大厦与陆家嘴投资大厦的入市，为写字楼 市场带来58,329平方米的新增供应。两个项目均由上海陆家嘴金融与贸易 发展公司开发建设，租金报价在每天每平方米人民币5.5至7.5元。 第二季度，由于多个新项目入市，上海甲级写字楼空置率较上一季扩大1.0 百分点，达到10.6%。浦东竹园地区内有多个新项目交付使用，受新增供 应的影响，本季浦东竹园板块空置率上涨至21.5%。根据高力国际调查显 示，中心区域甲级写字楼空置率最低的两个商务区是黄浦区与卢湾区，空 置率分别为4.2%与5.5%。 demand remained strong and average rental rates rose to rmb7.8 per square me- ter per day, up 2.7 percent over the previous quarter, and 11.8 percent year on year. rental rates rose fastest in xuhui district, to rmb7.9 per square meter per day, a 6.4 percent increase over the previous quarter. rents in pudongs lujiazui area grew by 4.0 percent quarter on quarter to rmb8.1 per square meter per day. xuhui districts international commerce centre, a high-end development consist- ing of residential and retail components, officially launched its pre-leasing program 市场需求依旧强劲，甲级写字楼租金上升至每天每平方米人民币7.8元， 环比上涨2.7%，同比上涨11.8%。 徐汇区租金上涨速度最快，达到每天每平方米人民币7.9元，较上一季度 增长6.4%。浦东陆家嘴地区租金环比增长4.0%，达到每天每平方米人民 币8.1元。 位于徐汇区的环贸国际广场是一个集甲级写字楼、高级公寓、商业于一体 的大型综合项目,并自去年12月正式接受预租。在旺盛需求的带动下，截至 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 figure 2 shanghai grade a office occupied and vacant area by district 图 2 上海甲级写字楼分区入住面积和空置面积 figure 1 shanghai grade a office quarterly supply, take-up and vacancy 图 1 上海甲级办公楼季度供应量、 吸纳量和空置率 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 q1/06 q2/06 q3/06 q4/06 q1/07 q2/07 q3/07 q4/07 q1/08 q2/08 q3/08 q4/08 q1/09 q2/09 q3/09 q4/09 q1/10 q2/10 q3/10 q4/10 q1/11 q2/11 000 sq m quarterly supply 季度供应量take-up 吸纳量vacancy rate 空置率 4.2% 7.7% 13.6% 21.5% 6.2% 5.5% 8.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 huangpu 黄浦jingan 静安lujiazui 陆家嘴 zhuyuan竹园 changning 长宁luwan 卢湾xuhui 徐汇 000 sq m occupied area 入住面积vacant area 空置面积vacancy rate 空置率 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 q1/06 q2/06 q3/06 q4/06 q1/07 q2/07 q3/07 q4/07 q1/08 q2/08 q3/08 q4/08 q1/09 q2/09 q3/09 q4/09 q1/10 q2/10 q3/10 q4/10 q1/11 q2/11 rmb/sq m/day av. rent 平均租金growth rate yoy 年增长率growth rate qoq 季度增长率 8.0 8.9 8.1 6.0 6.4 8.6 7.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 huangpu 黄浦jingan 静安lujiazui 陆家嘴zhuyuan竹园changning 长宁luwan 卢湾xuhui 徐汇 rmb/sq m/day av. effective rent : rmb7.8/sq m/day 平均实际租金 : 7.8人民币/平方米/天 本期主要写字楼交易包括：益普索中国在静安区梅隆镇广场承租5,400平方 米；恒大地产在黄浦区鸿祥大厦承租3,000平方米；高朋网在长宁区万宝国 际广场租赁了1,500平方米；雅诗兰黛在世纪商贸广场租赁了660平方米。 the knowledge report | q2 2011 | grade a office colliers international | p. 3 capital value and gross yield decentralized grade a office market 市价和收益率 次中心商务区甲级办公楼市场 高力国际 今年二季度，预租率高达65%。该项目将于今年第三季度竣工交付，将为 市场带来62,380平方米的甲级写字楼新供应。 目前该项目租金报价在每天每平方米人民币12至14元， 创淮海中路板块最高地 标租金纪录。 预计周边几个写字楼项目租金将相应上升。 可以预见， 下半年度 徐汇区甲级写字楼租金将继续看涨。 in december 2010. demand for the project has been strong and by the end of the second quarter, the pre-lease occupancy rate was 65 percent. upon completion in the third quarter of this year, the multi-use development will add 62,380 square meters of top-quality office space to the market. asking rental rates at the high-profile project ranged from rmb12 to 14 per square meter per day, a new high for the middle huaihai road area. rental rates at nearby office buildings are expected to rise as a result, with the net eff ect being an in- crease in average rental rates in xuhui district for the second half of 2011. in addition to the leasing market, shanghais office investment market saw a high level of activity during the second quarter. singapores ocbc bank ac- quired shanghai international group square from sig asset management for approximately rmb950 million, representing a transactional value of approxi- mately rmb41,300 per square meter. the bank announced it would relocate its china headquarters to the 23,000 square meter space in lujiazui, and propose renaming the 6-story building ocbc tower. domestic companies continued to be major players in the office investment market, with several acquisitions closed in the second quarter of 2011. bread n butter, a french lifestyle fashion brand acquired the 67th fl oor of the shanghai world financial centre for approximately rmb270 million. the fl oor was estimated at 3,354 square meters, making the deal worth nearly rmb 80,500 per square meter and was the sixth whole fl oor sale at the building in the first half of this year. soho china acquired the shanghai new world commercial centre, with a total gross fl oor area of 142,184 square meters, for approximately rmb3.2 bil- lion. the development comprises two office buildings with just under 100,200 square meters designated for office use, approximately 12,600 square meters designated for retail use, and underground space. the changning district proj- ect has been renamed soho zhongshan plaza. finally, an undisclosed buyer purchased 1,980 square meters of office space on the 28th fl oor of pudongs zhongrong jasper tower. the price per square meter was estimated at rmb69,352, nearly 5.1 percent higher than the first quarters average transaction price. gross yields on shanghais grade a office space fell to 6.3 percent, a decrease of 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter. capital value on the same space in- creased 15.3 percent over the previous year to rmb45,472 per square meter. two grade a office buildings were launched in hongkou district during the second quarter, adding 113,300 square meters to shanghais decentralized office market. citic plaza is a 47-story high-rise office building located at the intersection of si- chuan road and haining road. asking rental rates in the second quarter ranged from rmb6 to 8 per square meter per day. harbour one, developed by shang- hai eastern harbour development company, is located on dongdaming road in the north bund area. asking rental rates at the high-rise office building ranged from rmb5.5 to 6.5 per square meter per day during the second quarter. new take-up in the second quarter was approximately 40,004 square meters, pushing the vacancy rate of shanghais decentralized grade a office market down to 23.6 percent. rental rates grew to rmb4.6 per square meter per day, a 4.6 percent increase over the previous quarter. 第二季度，上海写字楼投资市场活跃程度明显提升。新加坡华侨银行斥资 近人民币9.5亿从上海国际集团资产管理公司购得上海国际集团广场，成 交均价为每平方米人民币41,300元。该项目位于陆家嘴，总高6层，总建 面约23,000平方米，华侨银行宣布将迁移总部至此，并将项目冠名为华侨 银行大厦。 国内企业仍然是写字楼投资市场的主要参与主体，第二季度录得多宗项目 成交。 本季法国时尚品牌“面包黄油”以人民币2.7亿元购得上海环球金融中心第67 层。 整层写字楼面积为3,354平方米， 成交单价约为每平方米人民币80,500元。 同时这也是今年上半年， 上海环球金融中心录得的第六宗整层写字楼交易。 soho中国以总价人民币32亿元成功收购新世界长宁商业中心，总成交面 积为142,184平方米。该项目由两栋写字楼组成，包括100,200平方米写字 楼面积和12,600平方米的商业面积，含地下商业面积。收购完成后正式命 名为“soho中山广场”。 最后，一位尚未公开身份的买家购得中融碧玉蓝天大厦28层，整层写字楼 面积为1,980平方米。成交价格约为每平方米人民币69,352元，较上季度该 栋写字楼成交均价相比，高出近5.1%。 上海甲级写字楼租金回报率下降至6.3%，环比下跌0.1百分点，同时上 海甲级写字楼市场整体价格平均为每平方米人民币45,472元。同比增长 15.3%。 第二季度，虹口区有两栋甲级写字楼竣工交付，为次中心商务区甲级写字 楼市场带来113,300平方米新增供应。 中信广场位于四川路与海宁路交界口，总高达47层，目前写字楼租金报价 在每天每平方米人民币6至8元。由东方海港（上海）置业投资有限公司投 资开发的东方海港国际大厦位于北外滩东大名路，目前租金报价在每天每 平方米人民币5.5至6.5元。 figure 6 decentralised grade a office eff ective rent and growth rate 图 6 次中心商务区甲级写字楼实际租金和增长率 figure 5 decentralized grade a office quarterly supply, take-up and vacancy rate 图 5 次中心商务区甲级写字楼季度供应量、 吸纳量和空置率 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 source: colliers international shanghai (cis) research 数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 q1/09q2/09q3/09q4/09q1/10q2/10q3/10q4/10q1/11q2/11 000 sq m quarterly supply 季度供应量net take-up 吸纳量vacancy rate 空置率 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 q1/09q2/09q3/09q4/09q1/10q2/10q3/10q4/10q1/11q2/11 rmb/sq m/day av. rent 平均租金growth rate qoq 季度增长率 第二季度，次中心商务区甲级写字楼净吸纳量为40,004平方米，使得整体 空置率下降至23.6%。次中心商务区甲级写字楼平均租金上涨至每天每平 方米人民币4.6元，环比增长4.6%。 market outlook市场展望 table 1 major office leasing and sales transactions in shanghai during q2 2011 表 1 2011年第二季度上海写字楼市场主要交易案例 date of issue: july 6th 2011 the knowledge report | q2 2011 | grade a office /china recovering demand for office space from foreign enterprises, together with an increase in demand from domestic companies drove up shanghais rental rate and occupancy rate in the second quarter. domestic buyers continued to enter the office investment market, once primarily led by foreign enterprises. in the first half of 2011, domestic enterprises accounted for more than 70 percent of the office investment market by transaction volume. the grade a office market in puxi will remain strong in the coming months. high-quality properties scheduled to be completed this year will continue to see strong pre-leasing activity. pudongs office market will be positively aff ected by the significant increase in supply in the near future as shanghai continues to be the center of strategic development for many companies op- erating in china. supported by sustained rising demand and in- fl ationary pressure, colliers expects office rents will not see a significant fl uctuation despite up- coming new office supply. however, the vacancy rate of shanghais grade a office market is ex- pected to increase on the back of new supply due to launch in the second half of 2011. 第二季度， 随着外资企业对写字楼的需求复苏以及 内资企业对写字楼需求的日益增长， 甲级写字楼租 金与入住率在本季均有所上升。 写字楼投资市场， 这个曾被外资占据的市场， 现在由 国内资本占主导地位。 2011年上半年， 国内资本约占 写字楼投资市场总交易量的70%以上。 在未来的数月中， 浦西甲级写字楼市场将保持稳健。 计划在今年年内完工的新项目的预租率普遍较高。 浦东甲级写字楼市场未来供应量非常充裕， 同时上 海作为跨国公司在华发展的中心战略， 这有利因素 将对写字楼市场需求产生积极影响。 鉴于持续增长的写字楼需求和高通胀压力下， 高力 国际预计， 尽管未来将有大批优质写字楼供应入市， 但上海甲级写字楼租金将不会出现大幅波动。 由于 下半年将有更多新增供应， 预计写字楼空置率将进 一步走高。 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents usa: 125 canada: 38 asia: 32 australia and nz: 182 latin america: 18 emea: 117 $1.5 billion in annual revenue 202 million sq m under management over 12,509 professionals china: shanghai 16f hong kong new world tower 300 huai hai zhong road shanghai 200021 prc tel +86 21 6141 3688 fax +86 21 6141 3699 lina wong man