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1RMBINTERNATIONALIZATION–PROGRESS,FUTURESTEPSANDIMPLICATIONSSINCETHEONSETOFTHEFINANCIALCRISIS,CHINESEOFFICIALSHAVEUNDERTAKENTOELEVATETHERENMINBITOTHESTATUSOFAMAJORINTERNATIONALCURRENCYANDINTHESECONDHALFOF2010,FOLLOWEDTHROUGHBYLAUNCHINGAWAVEOFMEASURESTHATDRAMATICALLYBROADENEDTHESCOPEFOROFFSHORERENMINBIBUSINESSSEEAPPENDIX1KEYREFORMSINCLUDEDALLOWINGCERTAINOFFSHOREFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSTOTAPINTOTHEONSHOREINTERBANKBONDMARKET,USINGTHERMBINCURRENCYSWAPSWITHEMERGINGMARKETTRADINGPARTNERSANDALLOWINGINSTITUTIONSACROSSINDUSTRIESTOOPENRMBACCOUNTSINHONGKONGINSEPTEMBER,THECHINESECURRENCYALSOCROSSEDANOTABLEMILESTONEINTERMSOFACHIEVINGSTATUSASARESERVECURRENCYWHENMALAYSIA’SCENTRALBANKREPORTEDLYADDEDASUMOFRMBASSETSTOITSHOLDINGSTHEFOLLOWINGREPORTISPRESENTEDINTWOPARTSTHEFIRSTPARTEXAMINESTHESTEPSTHATHAVEBEENTAKENINRECENTMONTHSTOPROMOTEINTERNATIONALIZATIONOFTHERMB,WHILETHESECONDPARTEXAMINESINQAFORMATSOMEOFTHEKEYISSUESSURROUNDINGTHISEFFORTIRMBINTERNATIONALIZATION–PROGRESSTODATERMBTRADESETTLEMENTBOOSTSHONGKONG’SRMBDEPOSITSINTHECLOSINGWEEKSOF2010,THECHINESEGOVERNMENTROUNDEDOUTANEVENTFULYEARBYEXPANDINGITSCROSSBORDERRMBTRADESETTLEMENTPROGRAMTOOVER67,000EXPORTERS,DRAMATICALLYEXPANDINGTHESCOPEFORRMBBUSINESSALONGTHETRADEDIMENSIONFOREXPORTINDUSTRIES,THEABILITYTOPRICECONTRACTSINRMBOFFERSAMEANSTOMITIGATECURRENCYRISKATATIMEWHENTHEUSDOLLARISEXPECTEDTOMAINTAINADOWNWARDTRAJECTORYINTHEMEDIUMTERMTHEVOLUMEOFCROSSBORDERRMBTRADESETTLEMENTHASGROWNRAPIDLYSINCETHEEXPANSIONOFCHINA’SPILOTPROGRAMINMID2010BETWEENJUNEANDNOVEMBER,CROSSBORDERTRADETRANSACTIONSSETTLEDINCHINESECURRENCYAMOUNTEDTORMB340BILLION,MORETHAN7TIMESTHETOTALVOLUMEINJANMAYEVENSO,THETOTALVOLUMEOFTRADESETTLEDINRMBIN11M2010RMB380BNONLYREPRESENTS2OFCHINA’STOTALTRADEDURING2010,THEPOOLOFRMBDEPOSITSINHONGKONGEXPANDED378,GOINGBYTHEESTIMATEOFRMB300BNINDEPOSITSATEND2010,MADEBYNORMANCHAN,THECHIEFEXECUTIVEOFTHEHONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITYSEEFIGURE1ASIGNIFICANTMARKETFORRMBDENOMINATEDPRODUCTSAPPEAREDTOBETAKINGSHAPEINTHETERRITORY,WITHRMB414BNINBONDISSUANCEFORTHEYEAR,COMPAREDTORMB16BNIN2009RENMINBIDEPOSITSGREWTOACCOUNTFORABOUT45OFHONGKONG’STOTALDEPOSITBASEATEND2010JPMORGANHONGKONGBANKSANALYSTJOSEPHLEUNGFORECASTSTHATTHISRATIOWILLRISETO15ATEND2011NEWINITIATIVESANDPRODUCTSIN2011INTHEEARLYWEEKSOFTHENEWYEAR,POLICYMAKERSARECLEARLYPUSHINGAHEADWITHINCREMENTALSTEPSTOEXPANDTHEUSEOFTHECURRENCYOVERSEASANDTOLIBERALIZETHENATION’SCAPITALACCOUNTAMONGRECENTDEVELOPMENTSHANDSONCHINAREPORTJANUARY24,2011JINGULRICHMANAGINGDIRECTOR,CHAIRMAN,CHINAEQUITIESCOMMODITIES85228008635JINGLULRICHJPMORGANCOMAMIRHOOSAIN85228008641AMIRHHOOSAINJPMORGANCOMBENJAMINWONG,CFA85228008932BENJAMINMCWONGJPMORGANCOMKELVINWONG85228008962KELVINXWONGJPMORGANCOM2JINGULRICHHANDSONCHINAREPORT–JANUARY24,2011SQUARE6THEPEOPLESBANKOFCHINAPBOCANNOUNCEDTHATCHINESEFIRMSWOULDBEPERMITTEDTOTRANSFERRMBOFFSHORETOINVESTINNEWVENTURES,MAANDSTAKEPURCHASESABROADCHINA’SONSHOREBANKSWILLBEABLETOEXTENDRMBDENOMINATEDLOANSFORTHESEOVERSEASINVESTMENTSANDPROFITSMAYALSOBEREPATRIATEDTOCHINAINRMBSQUARE6RESIDENTSINTHEWEALTHYCOASTALCITYOFWENZHOUWILLBEALLOWEDTOPARTICIPATEINATRIALSCHEMETHATWILLENTITLETHEMTOMAKEDIRECTOVERSEASINVESTMENTSOFUPTORMB200MILLIONPERYEARSQUARE6BANKOFCHINASNEWYORKBRANCHHASBEGUNOFFERINGRMBACCOUNTSWHOSEHOLDERSMAYEXCHANGEUPTOUSD4,000PERDAY,WITHAUSD20,000CAPPERANNUMSQUARE6THECHIEFEXECUTIVEOFHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARINGHASSAIDTHATTHEEXCHANGEISACTIVELYLOOKINGATMEANSTOMAKETHELISTINGOFRMBDENOMINATEDSHARESVIABLEANDEXPECTSSUCHISSUANCESTOBEGINTHISYEARANUMBEROFINSTITUTIONS,INCLUDINGBANKOFCHINAINTERNATIONALANDCHEUNGKONGHOLDINGS,HAVEALREADYANNOUNCEDANINTERESTINEVENTUALLYRAISINGRMBDENOMINATEDEQUITYINHONGKONGSQUARE6ACCORDINGTORECENTMEDIAREPORTSCITINGUNNAMEDSOURCES,THEEARLIERANTICIPATED“MINIQFII”TRIALISAGAININTHEPIPELINE;ATLEAST80OFFUNDSRAISEDMUSTBEINVESTEDINTHEDOMESTICBONDMARKETTHESERECENTDEVELOPMENTSHAVEHADTHEEFFECTOFGENERATINGCONSIDERABLEEXCITEMENTABOUTHONGKONG’SPROSPECTSASANOFFSHORERENMINBICENTER,WITHPERCEIVEDBENEFICIARIESINCLUDINGHONGKONGBANKS,HKEXANDVARIOUSINVESTMENTBANKSANDASSETMANAGERSBUTDESPITESUCHUPBEATMARKETSENTIMENT,THEREARESUBSTANTIALHURDLESTORENMINBIINTERNATIONALIZATION,NOTTHELEASTOFWHICHISTHELIMITEDAVENUESFOROFFSHORERMBPOOLSTOBEREPATRIATEDTOTHEMAINLANDWITHOUTCASEBYCASEREGULATORYAPPROVALWITHPOLICYMAKERSCONCERNEDABOUTEXCESSIVEDOMESTICLIQUIDITYANDASSETPRICEBUBBLES,THECURRENTBARRIERSAREUNLIKELYTOBERELAXEDEXCEPTTHROUGHVERYMEASUREDSTEPSSUCHASAMINIQFIITRIALTHISMEANSTHATWIDERACCEPTANCEOFTHECURRENCYHINGESONTHEAVAILABILITYOFWIDERINVESTMENTOPTIONSOFFSHOREBEYONDMERECURRENCYAPPRECIATION,WHICHINTURNHINGESONTHEDEVELOPMENTOFANADEQUATELIQUIDITYPOOLTOENCOURAGETHENECESSARYINTRODUCTIONOFPRODUCTINNOVATIONSANDSECURITIESISSUANCESTHEWIDESPREADACCEPTANCEOFTHERENMINBIASARESERVECURRENCY–PERHAPSTHEULTIMATEMEASUREOFINTERNATIONALIZATION–APPEARSADISTANTPROSPECT050100150200250300MAY04NOV04MAY05NOV05MAY06NOV06MAY07NOV07MAY08NOV08MAY09NOV09MAY10NOV10FIGURE1RENMINBIDEPOSITSINHONGKONGRMBBNFIGURE1RENMINBIDEPOSITSINHONGKONGRMBBNSOURCEHKMA3JINGULRICHHANDSONCHINAREPORT–JANUARY24,2011IIQUESTIONSANDANSWERSIWHATTYPESOFRMBINVESTMENTPRODUCTSARELIKELYTOBEINTRODUCEDINHONGKONGHONGKONG’SDEVELOPMENTASANOFFSHORERMBCENTERISSTILLVERYMUCHINITSINFANCYWHENCONSIDEREDAGAINSTTHEFULLSPECTRUMOFPRODUCTSANDSERVICESALREADYAVAILABLEINHKDATTHEASIANFINANCIALFORUM,ANANNUALCONFERENCEORGANIZEDBYTHEHONGKONGGOVERNMENT,THEISSUEOFRMBINTERNATIONALIZATIONFEATUREDPROMINENTLYINDISCUSSIONSINVOLVINGHONGKONGANDMAINLANDFINANCIALAUTHORITIESANDFINANCIALEXECUTIVESACCORDINGTOPROFESSORKCCHAN,HONGKONG’SSECRETARYOFFINANCIALSERVICESANDTREASURY,THEPROLIFERATIONOFRMBDENOMINATEDINVESTMENTPRODUCTSISLIKELYTOOCCURINITIALLYWITHPRODUCTSTHATDONOTREQUIREANACTIVESECONDARYMARKETTHUSATTHEFIRSTSTAGE,THERMBDENOMINATEDINVESTMENTPRODUCTSLAUNCHEDINHONGKONGHAVEMAINLYCONSISTEDOFFIXEDINTERESTPRODUCTSTHATARETYPICALLYBOUGHTANDHELDFORSTABLEINCOMESTREAMS,RATHERTHANTHOSEWHICHAREACTIVELYTRADEDFORCAPITALRETURNREQUIRINGANACTIVEANDLIQUIDSECONDARYMARKETTOCREATEALIQUIDSECONDARYMARKETFORRMBFINANCIALPRODUCTS,THEREMUSTBELARGEPOOLOFRMBFUNDSTHATAREREADILYACCESSIBLEFORLOCALANDOVERSEASINVESTORSANDEXCHANGEABLEINTOFOREIGNCURRENCYCURRENTRESTRICTIONSONCURRENCYCONVERSIONCAPPEDATRMB20,000/DAYFORHONGKONGRETAILCUSTOMERSANDSUBJECTTOAPPROVALFORCORPORATES–UNLESSTHEFUNDSAREUSEDFORTRADESETTLEMENTANDALIMITEDLIQUIDITYPOOLSUGGESTTHATITISSTILLDIFFICULTTOBUYORSELLRMBONALARGESCALEFORINVESTMENTPURPOSESINPROFESSORCHAN’SOPINION,THEABSENCEOFANADEQUATELIQUIDITYPOOLCOMPLICATESTHEINTRODUCTIONOFPRODUCTSSUCHASTHROUGHANEQUITYIPO,WHEREASOUNDPRICINGFUNCTIONISEXPECTEDOFTHEMARKETWHILENOTIMETABLEHASBEENANNOUNCED,RECENTCOMMENTSBYTHEHONGKONGGOVERNMENT,REGULATORSANDTHEEXCHANGEPOINTTOTHEDEVELOPMENTOFINFRASTRUCTURETOSUPPORTTHEINTRODUCTIONOFEQUITYRELATEDPRODUCTS,SUCHASRMBDENOMINATEDSHARELISTINGS,ETFSANDMANAGEDFUNDSINTHERELATIVELYNEARFUTUREIIWILLRELAXATIONSONOUTWARDRMBINVESTMENTBEFOLLOWEDBYSIMILARMOVESTOALLOWTHEREPATRIATIONOFOFFSHOREFUNDSFORDOMESTICINVESTMENTONJANUARY6,THEPBOCANNOUNCEDTHATCHINESEENTERPRISESAREALLOWEDTOREMITRMBOFFSHOREFOROVERSEASMAANDINVESTMENTPURPOSESBANKSAREALSOALLOWEDTOPROVIDERMBFINANCINGTOTHESECHINESEENTERPRISESFURTHERMORE,THERETURNGENERATEDFROMSUCHINVESTMENTSCANBEREPATRIATEDTOCHINATHESEAREPROMISINGSTEPSTHATALLOWRMBFUNDSTOCIRCULATEOFFSHORE,HOWEVER,FUNDSINTENDEDFORSUBSEQUENTINVESTMENTINTOCHINAMUSTUNDERGOSCRUTINYBYCHINA’SFOREIGNEXCHANGEREGULATOR,WHICHIMPLIESADEGREEOFPOLICYRISKATTHEASIANFINANCIALFORUM,ZHANGJIANJUN,PRESIDENTOFTHESHENZHENCENTRALSUBBRANCHOFTHEPBOC,AGREEDTHATFORMORESIGNIFICANTAMOUNTSOFRMBTOFLOWBETWEENONSHOREANDOFFSHOREJURISDICTIONS,THEFDICHANNELMUSTBERELAXEDCURRENTLY,INVESTMENTSBETWEENCHINAANDOTHERCOUNTRIESAREHEAVILYBIASEDTOWARDSOUTBOUNDCHINESEINVESTMENTSTHECENTRALGOVERNMENTHASBEENPROCEEDINGVERYGRADUALLYINHOPESOFCONTROLLINGTHELEVELOFSPECULATIONTHATMAYACCOMPANYAMOREEXTENSIVERELAXATIONOFCAPITALCONTROLSWITHRESPECTTOPORTFOLIOFLOWS,ALTHOUGHTHEQDIIPROGRAMHASBEGUNTOSHOWSIGNSOFRETURNINGTOLIFEWITHTHEINTRODUCTIONOFMOREINNOVATIVEPRODUCTSSUCHASLIONFUNDMANAGEMENT’SGOLDFUND,WHICHRECENTLYMETITS500MILLIONSUBSCRIPTIONTARGET,THEFLOWOFINBOUNDANDOUTBOUNDPORTFOLIOINVESTMENTSTHROUGHQDIIANDQFIIWILLLIKELYREMAINRELATIVELYINSIGNIFICANTINTHESHORTTERMTHEVOLUMEOFQFIIQUOTAAPPROVEDBYTHEGOVERNMENTISSTILLVASTLYINADEQUATETOSATISFYTHEDEMANDOFFOREIGNINVESTORSANEVENTUALMINIQFIITRIAL,WHICHWOULDBEAIMEDATPROVIDINGACONDUITFOROFFSHORERMBTOINVESTINTHEONSHOREEQUITYANDDEBTMARKETS,MAYGAINCRITICALMASSINTHEFUTURE;HOWEVER,ITSDEPLOYMENTISLIKELYTOBEVERYGRADUAL4JINGULRICHHANDSONCHINAREPORT–JANUARY24,2011IIIWHOARETHEEXPECTEDBENEFICIARIESOFACCELERATEDGROWTHINTHEOFFSHORERMBMARKETALTHOUGHTHEGROWTHINTHESIZEOFTHEOFFSHORERMBMARKETHASBEENNOTHINGSHORTOFEXTRAORDINARY,THEABILITYTOMONETIZETHISGROWTHISCURRENTLYQUITELIMITEDDUETOALACKOFPRODUCTDIVERSITYACCORDINGTOJPMORGANANALYSTHARSHMODI,HONGKONGEXCHANGEANDCLEARING388HK,OVERWEIGHT,PT168ISEXPECTEDTOBEONEOFTHEKEYBENEFICIARIESOFRMBLIBERALIZATIONOVERTHENEXT510YEARS,ASMORELISTEDRMBRELATEDPRODUCTSBECOMESAVAILABLETHROUGHTHETERRITORY’SSOLEEXCHANGEANDCLEARINGOPERATORFOREXAMPLECHARLESLI,CEOOFHKEX,SUGGESTEDINEARLYJANUARYTHATRMBDENOMINATEDIPOSCOULDBEROLLEDOUTASEARLYASTHISYEARBANKOFCHINAHONGKONG2388HKCOULDALSOBENEFITMARGINALLYFROMRMBLIBERALIZATION,SINCEITCURRENTLYSERVESASTHEONLYAUTHORIZEDCLEARINGINSTITUTIONBETWEENTHEPBOCANDOTHERHONGKONGBASEDFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSWHILEAGRADUALINCREASEINTHEAMOUNTOFRMBDENOMINATEDPRODUCTSISEXPECTEDTOIMPROVEBANKS’PROFITABILITY,JPMORGANANALYSTJOSEPHLEUNGANTICIPATESTHATATLEASTINTHESHORTTERM,THERECOULDBEACERTAINDEGREEOFCANNIBALIZATIONBETWEENPRODUCTSDENOMINATEDINDIFFERENTCURRENCIESOVERALLHEEXPECTSTHEEARNINGSCONTRIBUTIONTOBOCHKTOBE1INABEARCASESCENARIOAND9INTHEBULLCASEIVWHATDOESTHEPROCESSOFRMBINTERNATIONALIZATIONIMPLYASTOTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFHONGKONGANDSHANGHAIASFINANCIALCENTERSATTHEASIANFINANCIALFORUM,VARIOUSSPEAKERS,INCLUDINGFANGXINGHAI,DIRECTORGENERALOFSHANGHAI’SFINANCIALSERVICESOFFICEANDGAOYINGXIN,DEPUTYCHIEFEXECUTIVEOFBANKOFCHINAHONGKONGEMPHASIZEDTHATTHEREWASEXTENSIVECOOPERATIONBETWEENAUTHORITIESINTHETWOJURISDICTIONSHOWEVER,DRFANGNOTEDTHATSHANGHAIHASBEENMANDATEDBYTHECENTRALGOVERNMENTTOBECOMECHINA’SINTERNATIONALFINA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