201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt201101 China smart phone nomura.ppt

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ANCHORREPORTBUYSMARTPHONES|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNEWTHEMETHERMB1,000REVOLUTIONTHEADVENTOFRMB1,000CIRCAUS150SMARTPHONESPROMISESTOREVOLUTIONISECHINA’STELECOMINDUSTRYANDTHEGLOBALHANDSETSPACEASWELLASDRIVING3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINA,WEEXPECTTHEAVAILABILITYOFAFFORDABLE,CAPABLEENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESTOLEADTOCONSOLIDATIONINTHEDOMESTICHANDSETINDUSTRY,SINCESMALLWHITEBOXVENDORSDON’THAVEARELIABLEUPGRADEPATHTO3GFROMEITHERACHIPSETSOURCINGORPRODUCTDISTRIBUTIONSTANDPOINTMOREOVER,WETHINKTHESEPHONESWILLHELPCHINESEHANDSETOEMSMOVEUPTOTHEMIDRANGEPRODUCTSEGMENT,PAVINGTHEWAYSTOCKSFORACTIONWEBELIEVETHEMARKETHASYETTORECOGNISETCLCOMASAKEYBENEFICIARYOFTHEGROWINGPOPULARITYOFSOCIALNETWORKSERVICESSNSINEMERGINGMARKETSORBYDEASAPROXYFORCHINA3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHFORAFURTHERCONVERGENCEINTHEIRVALUATIONSRELATIVETOHANDSETBRANDVENDORSWEFORECASTTHATCHINA’SSMARTPHONEMARKETWILLEXPANDFROM20MNUNITSIN2010FTOSTOCKTCLCOM2618HKRATINGBUYPRICEPRICETARGETHK808HK110062MNIN2012F,MAKINGITTHEWORLD’SSECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETAFTERTHEUSBYVOLUMEWEHIGHLIGHTABROADSPECTRUMOFBENEFICIARIESFROMTHEARRIVALOFBYDELECTRONIC285HKCHINAWIRELESS2369HKNEUTRALHK513HK600HK460HK450SMARTPHONESFORTHEMASSESHANDSETVENDORSSUCHASBYDE,TCLCOM,ZTEANDHTC,ALONGWITHRETAILERGOMEQUALCOMM,CHINAWIRELESSANDDIGITALCHINAALSOLOOKDIGITALCHINA861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK1604HK1700BUYHK2995HK3600BUYNT894NT1,000SETTOBENEFIT,THOUGHWEVIEWPREVAILINGVALUATIONSASFAIRWESEEMEDIATEKASAGOME493HKBUYHK289HK430POTENTIALLOSERFROMTHE2GTO3GTRANSITIONQUALCOMMQCOMUSMEDIATEK2454TTNEUTRALUS5133US4500REDUCENT398NT275CHINATOBETHESECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETBY2012FANDROIDTOSPURCONVERGENCEOFHANDSETBRANDVENDORSANDOEMS3GTRANSITIONTOCONSOLIDATECHINESEHANDSETINDUSTRYTOPPICKSTCLCOM,BYDEINITIATINGCOVERAGE;PRICESASAT20JANCLOSEANALYSTSLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNOMURAASIAEXJAPANRESEARCHNOMURAUSRESEARCHNOMURAANCHORREPORTSEXAMINETHEKEYTHEMESANDVALUEDRIVERSTHATUNDERPINOURSECTORVIEWSANDSTOCKRECOMMENDATIONSFORTHENEXT6TO12MONTHSANYAUTHORSNAMEDONTHISREPORTARERESEARCHANALYSTSUNLESSOTHERWISEINDICATEDSEETHEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSONPAGES93TO96NOMURA24JANUARY2011PRICE1SMARTPHONES|CHINATELECOMSTECHNOLOGYNOMURAINTERNATIONALHKLIMITEDLEPINGHUANG,PHD85222521598LEPINGHUANGNOMURACOMNEWTHEMEACTIONWELOOKATTHEEMERGINGENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONETRENDFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHEWHOLEHANDSETSUPPLIERCHAINCOVERINGCHIPSETVENDORS,HANDSETOEMS,DISTRIBUTORSANDOPERATORSBUYTCLCOMINITIATION,BYDE,ZTEANDHTCASHANDSETVENDORBENEFICIARIESINDISTRIBUTION,SYNNEXANDGOMELOOKWELLPLACEDWEREITERATEOURREDUCEONMEDIATEKASAPOTENTIALLOSEROFTHE2GTO3GTRANSITIONWELIKECHINAWIRELESSINITIATIONANDDIGITALCHINAINITIATIONBUTTHEIRVALUATIONSLOOKFAIRSTOCKSFORACTIONWEBELIEVETHEMARKETHASYETTORECOGNISETCLCOMASAKEYBENEFICIARYOFTHEGROWINGPOPULARITYOFSOCIALNETWORKSERVICESSNSINEMERGINGMARKETSORBYDEASAPROXYFORCHINA3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHCATALYSTSSTOCKTCLCOM2618HKRATINGBUYPRICETARGETHK808HK1100POSITIVECATALYSTSINCLUDEHIGHERTHANEXPECTED3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINABYDELECTRONIC285HKCHINAWIRELESS2369HKBUYNEUTRALHK513HK460HK600HK450ANCHORTHEMESENTRYLEVELSMARTPHONESAREANIMPORTANTTRENDINCHINAANDGLOBALLYENTRYLEVELDIGITALCHINA861HKZTE763HKHTC2498TTNEUTRALHK1604HK1700BUYHK2995HK3600BUYNT894NT1,000SMARTPHONESSHOULDHELPCHINESEOPERATORSDRIVE3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHANDGOME493HKBUYHK289HK430RESHAPETHEHANDSETMANUFACTURINGANDDISTRIBUTIONINDUSTRYQUALCOMMQCOMUSMEDIATEK2454TTNEUTRALUS5133US4500REDUCENT398NT275INITIATINGCOVERAGE;PRICESASAT20JANCLOSETHERMB1,000REVOLUTIONCHINATOBETHESECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETBY2012FWEFORECASTCHINA’SSMARTPHONEMARKETWILLEXPANDFROM20MNIN2010FTO62MNIN2012F,ANDBECOMETHEWORLD’SSECONDLARGESTSMARTPHONEMARKETAFTERTHEUSBYVOLUMEIN2012FOURAFFORDABILITYANALYSISSHOWSTHATRMB1,0002,000SMARTPHONESWILLDRIVE3GSUBSCRIBERGROWTHINCHINAWENOTETHATTHEIPHONEISTARGETEDATTHETOP5OFTOTAL3GSUBSCRIBERSINCHINAWETHINKTHEDIFFERENCEINUSEREXPERIENCEANDASSOCIATEDSERVICEPLANSBETWEENHIGHENDANDLOWENDSMARTPHONESWILLCHANGETHESMARTPHONEECOSYSTEMANDROIDTOSPURCONVERGENCEOFHANDSETBRANDVENDORSANDOEMSWEBELIEVETHEEMERGENCEOFTHEANDROIDOSHASLOWEREDTHETECHNOLOGYBARRIERSBETWEENHANDSETBRANDVENDORSEG,NOKIA,MOTOROLACAPABLEOFHIGHENDPRODUCTDEVELOPMENTANDHANDSETOEMSCAPABLEONLYOFHANDSETMANUFACTURINGANDLOWENDHANDSETDESIGNTHESELOWERBARRIERSSHOULDHELPHANDSETOEMSTOPENETRATEMIDRANGESEGMENTSANDPRESENTINVESTORSWITHRERATINGOPPORTUNITIESINHANDSETOEMS,GIVENAPOSSIBLECONVERGENCEINVALUATIONBETWEENTHETWOGROUPS,INOURVIEW3GTRANSITIONTOCONSOLIDATECHINESEHANDSETINDUSTRYWETHINKTHETRANSITIONFROM2GTO3GINCHINAWILLENCOURAGECONSOLIDATIONINTHEHANDSETOEMINDUSTRY,BECAUSESMALLVENDORSDONOTHAVEARELIABLEUPGRADEPATHTO3GDUETOLICENSINGRESTRICTIONSBETWEENMEDIATEKANDQUALCOMM,ANDWILLLIKELYFACECHALLENGESINDISTRIBUTIONDUETOTHESHIFTTOANOPERATORCENTRICMODELIN3GFROMADISTRIBUTORPERSPECTIVE,WEEXPECTPCANDHANDSETDISTRIBUTIONTOCONVERGE,ESPECIALLYINSMARTPHONES,CREATINGOPPORTUNITIESFOREXISTINGPCDISTRIBUTORSSUCHASDIGITALCHINAANDSYNNEXTOPPICKSTCLC,BYDEWECALLBUYONBYDE,TCLCOM,ZTE,ANDHTCASBENEFICIARIESINTHEHAN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
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