亚洲LED行业研究报告2011年12月.ppt亚洲LED行业研究报告2011年12月.ppt

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ANCHORREPORTASIALEDLIGHTINGEQUITYRESEARCHSTILLTRAPPEDINTHEDARKSTAYBEARISHBACKLIGHTINGISUNPROFITABLEANDGENERALLIGHTINGATOUGHMARKETWERETAINOURBEARISHVIEWONTHELEDINDUSTRY,ANDRECOMMENDCAUTIONINANYSHORTTERMRALLIESTRIGGEREDBYPOSITIVENEWSFLOWNEARTERM,WEEXPECTLEDBACKLIGHTINGTOREMAINUNPROFITABLEIN2012FINTHEFACEOFCONTINUEDPRICINGPRESSUREFROMPANELMAKERSANDSEVERELEDOVERSUPPLY55OVERSUPPLYFURTHEROUT,WETHINKGENERALLIGHTINGWILLBEANOTHERTOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERSTHERULESOFTHEGAMEINTHELEDINDUSTRYHAVECHANGED,WITHTHECOREVALUEOFTHESUPPLYCHAINLIKELYTOSHIFTFROMLEDCOMPONENTSTOLEDLIGHTINGSOLUTIONSWEDONOTRECOMMENDBUYINGANYLEDMAKERSKEYANALYSISINTHISANCHORREPORTINCLUDESLEDBACKLIGHTINGMARKETLOOKSSETTOPEAKIN2012FSUPPLYDEMANDANALYSISFORLEDINDUSTRYSUGGESTSCONTINUEDSEVEREOVERSUPPLYIN2012FTHEACTUALADDRESSABLEMARKETOFLEDLIGHTINGFORLEDMAKERSISSMALLERTHANTHEMARKETEXPECTEDTHELEDINDUSTRY’SPROFITABILITYDURINGTHEPEAKLEDLIGHTINGCYCLEWILLNOTBEASHIGHASTHATDURINGTHEPEAKLEDTVCYCLEDECEMBER15,2011RESEARCHANALYSTSASIATECHNOLOGYANNELEE,CFANITBANNELEENOMURACOM886221769966REGIONALHEADOFTECHNOLOGYJAMESKIMNFIKJAMESKIMNOMURACOM85222526203GREGKANGNFIKGREGKANGNOMURACOM82237832336EASONHUNGNITBEASONHUNGNOMURACOM886221769965KYOICHIROYOKOYAMANSCKYOICHIROYOKOYAMANOMURACOM81367031113SEEAPPENDIXA1FORANALYSTCERTIFICATION,IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDTHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTSASIALEDLIGHTINGTECHNOLOGYANCHORREPORTSTILLTRAPPEDINTHEDARKSTAYBEARISHBACKLIGHTINGISUNPROFITABLEANDGENERALLIGHTINGATOUGHMARKETWEARECAUTIOUSOFANYRALLY,GIVENOURBEARISHVIEWONFUNDAMENTALSWERETAINOURBEARISHVIEWONTHELEDINDUSTRYFORBOTHTHESHORTANDTHELONGTERMSWEBELIEVETHATDETERIORATINGPROFITABILITYFORLEDBACKLIGHTINGWILLCONTINUEIN2012FANDONWARD,ANDTHATGENERALLIGHTINGWILLBEANOTHERTOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERSINTHELONGERTERMASSUCH,WERECOMMENDTHATINVESTORSBECAUTIOUSOFANYBEARMARKETRALLYWHICHCOULDBETRIGGEREDBYAREBOUNDINLEDTVDEMANDIN2Q12FORPOSITIVENEWSFLOWONLEDLIGHTINGDEMANDINTHESHORTTERM,WEAREBEARISHONBACKLIGHTINGAPPLICATIONSINTHESHORTTERM,WEESTIMATETHATTHELEDMARKETFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLREMAINUNPROFITABLEIN2012FWEESTIMATETHATTHELEDPACKAGEDPRICEFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLDROPATLEAST1520YYIN2012F,ASLEDMAKERSWILLCONTINUETOFACEPRICINGPRESSUREFROMDOWNSTREAMAMIDWEAKLEDTVDEMANDMEANWHILE,WEESTIMATETHATIN2012FTHELEDINDUSTRYWILLBEOVERSUPPLIEDBY55,RESULTINGINLOWUTILIZATIONAT4550LASTLY,WEESTIMATETHEOVERALLLEDMARKETSIZEFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLPEAKATUSD42BNIN2012FINTHELONGERTERM,GENERALLIGHTINGLOOKSTOBEANOTHERTOUGHMARKETINTHELONGTERM,WETHINKTHATTHEGENERALLIGHTINGMARKETWILLBEANOTHERTOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERS1THEACTUALADDRESSABLELEDMARKETSIZEFORLIGHTINGISSMALLERTHANTHEMARKETEXPECTED;WEESTIMATETHATIN2015FTHEMARKETSIZEWILLBEONLY12TIMESTHATOFOUR2012FPEAKMARKETFORBACKLIGHTING,AND2WETHINKTHATINDUSTRYPROFITABILITYDURINGTHEPEAKLIGHTINGCYCLEWILLNOTBEASHIGHASTHATDURINGTHEPEAKLEDTVCYCLE,ANDTHATTHELEDLIGHTINGMARKETWILLBECOMMODITIZEDASLATECOMERSCATCHUPWITHTHETECHNOLOGY,THUSWEIGHINGDOWNTHEINDUSTRY’SPROFITABILITYWEDONOTRECOMMENDBUYINGANYLEDNAMESWEREAFFIRMREDUCEONEVERLIGHT,ASWETHINKITSINTENTIONTOHAVEOWNBRANDLEDLIGHTINGWILLCAUSEITTOLOSEOPPORTUNITIESTOCOOPERATEWITHLIGHTINGCOMPANIESGIVENOURLONGTERMBEARISHVIEWONTHEINDUSTRY,WEARENEUTRALONSEOULSEMI,LGINNOTEKANDEPISTARALTHOUGHVALUATIONSARECLOSETO2008FINANCIALCRISISLOWSOURRELATIVEPREFERENCEISSEMCO,GIVENITSSTRONGCOMMITMENTTOTHELIGHTINGBUSINESSANDOWNBRANDLEDLIGHTINGPRODUCTSHOWEVER,WEMAINTAINNEUTRALONSEMCOASITMAYSPINOFFITSLEDBUSINESSIN2012FANDEARNINGSINOTHERBUSINESSESAREWEAKFIG1STOCKSFORACTIONEQUITYRESEARCHDECEMBER15,2011ANCHORTHEMESWEAREBEARISHONTHELEDINDUSTRYINBOTHTHESHORTANDLONGTERMS,ASWEBELIEVETHATDETERIORATINGPROFITABILITYINBACKLIGHTINGWILLCONTINUEIN2012F,ANDBECAUSELEDLIGHTINGISANOTHERTOUGHMARKETTOADDRESSINTHELONGTERMNOMURAVSCONSENSUSWEAREFIRSTTOBEBEARISHONLEDLIGHTINGNOTALLLEDLIGHTINGREVENUEISADDRESSABLE,ANDTHEPACKAGEDLEDVALUEBY2015FISONLY12XOFTHEBACKLIGHTINGPEAKRESEARCHANALYSTSASIATECHNOLOGYANNELEE,CFANITBANNELEENOMURACOM886221769966REGIONALHEADOFTECHNOLOGYJAMESKIMNFIKJAMESKIMNOMURACOM85222526203GREGKANGNFIKGREGKANGNOMURACOM82237832336EASONHUNGNITBEASONHUNGNOMURACOM886221769965KYOICHIROYOKOYAMANSCKYOICHIROYOKOYAMANOMURACOM81367031113PRICETARGETNOMURAP/EP/BROECODECOMPANY13DECPRICERATINGFY10FY11FY12FFY1FY11FY12FFY10FY11FY12F009150KSSEMCO90,00090,000NEUTRAL1262552632023201848481011070KSLGI73,10074,000NEUTRAL75NM181046890KSSSC22,00022,000NEUTRAL↑1363103102448TTEPISTAR600710NEUTRAL844522352393TTEVERLIGHT478440REDUCE86134129SOURCE↑UPGRADESOURCEBLOOMBERG,NOMURAESTIMATES1022111311211113102011121681791401564768259657664895SEEAPPENDIXA1FORANALYSTCERTIFICATION,IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDTHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTSRATINGSEEREPORTENDFORDETAILSOFNOMURA’SRATINGSYSTEM3711192127294454NOMURA|ASIALEDLIGHTINGCONTENTSINVESTMENTSUMMARYGLOOMYOUTLOOKFORBACKLIGHTINGLEDLIGHTING−ANOTHERTOUGHMARKETSUPPLYDEMANDANALYSIS−OVERSUPPLYRISKREMAINSIN2012FANDONWARDPAYBACKPERIODANALYSISINDUSTRYCONSOLIDATIONISNECESSARY,INOURVIEWEARNINGS,VALUATION,ANDSTOCKACTIONDECEMBER15,20113238SEMCOLGINNOTEKSEOULSEMICONDUCTOR49EPISTARCORPEVERLIGHTELECTRONICS59APPENDIXA12NOMURA|ASIALEDLIGHTINGDECEMBER15,2011INVESTMENTSUMMARYWERETAINOURBEARISHVIEWONTHELEDINDUSTRYINTHESHORTTERM,WHILEDEMANDFORLEDLIGHTINGSEEMSTOUSTOBEUNLIKELYTOBEREADYTOTAKEOFFUNTIL2013FDUETOHIGHINITIALCOSTSANDMACROUNCERTAINTIES,WEESTIMATETHATTHELEDMARKETFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLREMAINUNPROFITABLEIN2012FANDONWARDDUEMAINLYTOWEAKLEDTVDEMANDANDCONTINUEDPRICINGPRESSUREMOREOVER,WEESTIMATETHATTHELEDINDUSTRYWILLBEOVERSUPPLIEDBY55IN2012FINTHELONGTERM,WEBELIEVETHATTHEGENERALLIGHTINGMARKETWILLPROVETOBEANOTHERTOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERS1THEACTUALADDRESSABLEMARKETSIZEOFPACKAGEDLEDFORLIGHTINGISSMALLERTHANTHEMARKETEXPECTED;WEESTIMATETHATIN2015FTHESIZEOFTHEMARKETWILLBEONLY12TIMESOURESTIMATEDPEAKSIZEFORPACKAGEDLEDFORBACKLIGHTINGIN2012F,AND2WETHINKTHATTHEINDUSTRY’SPROFITABILITYDURINGTHEPEAKLIGHTINGCYCLEWILLNOTBEASHIGHASTHATDURINGTHEPEAKLEDTVCYCLE,ANDTHATTHELEDLIGHTINGMARKETWILLBECOMMODITIZEDASLATECOMERSCATCHUPWITHTECHNOLOGY,THUSWEIGHINGONTHEINDUSTRY’SPROFITABILITYASARESULT,WERETAINOURNEGATIVEVIEWONLEDCOMPANIESANDMAINTAINOURNEUTRALRATINGSONSEMCO,LGI,ANDEPISTAR,ANDOURREDUCERATINGONEVERLIGHTHOWEVER,WEUPGRADESSCTONEUTRALDETERIORATINGPROFITABILITYFORLEDBACKLIGHTINGTOCONTINUEIN2012FANDBEYONDLEDMAKERSPROFITABILITYFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLCONTINUETODETERIORATEIN2012F,INOURVIEW,DUEMAINLYTOWEAKLEDTVDEMANDANDCONTINUEDPRICINGPRESSUREONLEDSWEESTIMATETHATLEDPENETRATIONINTOLCDTVSWILLINCREASETO73IN2012FFROM45IN2011F,INDICATING79YYDEMANDGROWTHFORLEDTVSHOWEVER,WETHINKTHATTHEOVERALLSHIPMENTSFORLEDSWILLGROWBYONLY18YYIN2012FDUETOCONTINUEDIMPROVEMENTSINTECHNOLOGY,LOWERINGTHEAVERAGENUMBEROFLEDSEQUIPPEDBY35YY,ANDBECAUSEOFTHEINCREASEDPENETRATIONOFLOWENDDIRECTTYPELEDTVSMEANWHILE,WETHINKTHATLEDPRICESFORBACKLIGHTINGWILLDROPATLEAST1520YYIN2012FWEBELIEVETHAT,BECAUSEOFTHESLOWDEMANDTRENDANDBECAUSEMOSTOFTHEPANELMAKERSAREMAKINGOPERATINGLOSSES,TVSETANDPANELMAKERSAREUNLIKELYTOINCREASESETANDPANELPRICESASSUCH,INOURVIEW,COMPONENTMAKERSWILLLIKELYFACECONTINUEDPRICINGPRESSUREFROMDOWNSTREAMFURTHERMORE,WEESTIMATETHATTHELEDINDUSTRYWILLBESIGNIFICANTLYOVERSUPPLIEDBY55IN2012F,RESULTINGINLOWUTILIZATION,WEAKPRICINGPOWER,ANDWEAKPROFITABILITYINRESULTS,WEESTIMATELEDSEGMENTOPERATINGMARGINSOF28FORSEMCO,45FORLGI,53FORSSC,132FOREPISTARAND99FOREVERLIGHTIN2012FMOREOVER,WEFORECASTTHATTHEMARKETSIZEFORLEDBACKLIGHTINGWILLPEAKOUTATUSD42BNIN2012F,ANDTHUSBELIEVEDETERIORATEDPROFITABILITYFORLEDBACKLIGHTINGWILLCONTINUEIN2012FANDONWARDGENERALLIGHTINGISALSOATOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERSWEBELIEVETHEDEMANDFORLEDLIGHTINGISUNLIKELYTOTAKEOFFIN2012F,ASSTILLHIGHINITIALREPLACEMENTCOSTSWILL,INOURVIEW,REMAINABURDENONINDIVIDUALUSERSANDINVESTMENTINLEDLIGHTINGPRODUCTSWILLNOTTAKEOFFAMIDMACROWEAKNESSLEDLIGHTINGPRICESARELIKELYTONEEDANOTHERYEARTOREACHTIPPINGPOINTS,ANDWESEEINDUSTRYSTANDARDSBECOMINGMOREUNIFIEDBY2013FWITHMACROHEADWINDSLIKELYTOEASEBYTHENHOWEVER,WEBELIEVETHEGENERALLIGHTINGMARKETISALSOATOUGHMARKETFORLEDMAKERSTHELEDMARKETFORLIGHTINGWILLNOTGROWSIGNIFICANTLYLARGERTHANTHATFORBACKLIGHTING,INOURVIEWWEFORECASTTHATTHETOTALLEDLIGHTINGMARKETWILLGROW56YYTOUSD20BNIN2013F,BUTTHEPACKAGEDLEDMARKETFORLIGHTINGWILLGROWTOONLYUSD31BNIN2013F,VSUSD40BNFORLEDBACKLIGHTINGLEDLIGHTINGINCLUDESFIXTURESANDLAMP/MODULEASSEMBLYLIGHTSOURCE,WITHLIGHTSOURCEACCOUNTINGFOR4050OFTOTALVALUEANDPACKAGEACCOUNT,ANDPACKAGEDLEDVALUEAROUND35OFTHELIGHTSOURCEVALUE,ONOURESTIMATESASSUCH,WETHINKLEDLIGHTINGCANNOTOFFERSIZEABLEGROWTHOPPORTUNITYFORTHEPACKAGEDLEDMARKET;WEESTIMATETHATIN2015FTHESIZEOFTHE3NOMURA|ASIALEDLIGHTINGDECEMBER15,2011PACKAGEDLEDMARKETFORLIGHTINGWILLGROWONLY12TIMESOURESTIMATEDPEAKSIZEFORPACKAGEDLEDFORBACKLIGHTINGIN2012FMOREOVER,INDUSTRYPROFITABILITYDURINGTHEPEAKCYCLEOFLIGHTINGISNOTASHIGHASTHATOFLEDTVS,GIVENTHEFORMER’SFRAGMENTEDMARKET,NORUSHTOBRINGTHEPRODUCTSTOMARKETSCOMPAREDTOITPRODUCTS,ANDCONTINUEDPRICECUTSTOSTIMULATEDEMANDINOURVIEW,LEDMAKERSINTHELIGHTINGMARKETARELIKELYTOEXPERIENCEMARGINSQUEEZEEVENTUALLY,WHENTHIRDTIERMAKERSCATCHUPWITHTECHNOLOGYWHILEWEEXPECTFIRSTTIERLEDMAKERSTOENJOYAMEANINGFULMARGINRECOVERYIFDEMANDFORLEDLIGHTINGPICKSUP,WEBELIEVESUCHWILLLIKELYBESHORTLIVEDASARESULT,WEAREBEARISHONTHELEDINDUSTRYINTHESHORTANDLONGTERMSINOUROPINION,LEDLIGHTINGISCAUSINGSTRUCTURALCHANGESINTHELEDINDUSTRYWEBELIEVECONSOLIDATIONISNECESSARYINTHISINDUSTRYANDSEE2012FTHEBESTTIMETOUNDERGOSUCHACHANGEINTHISREPORT,WEIDENTIFYFOURDIRECTIONS1LEDMAKERSMOVETOWARDSDOWNSTREAMLAMPS,FIXTURES,ETC;2LEDCHIPMAKERSWORKTOWARDSHORIZONTALINTEGRATIONANDBUILDDIRECTRELATIONSHIPSWITHLIGHTINGCOMPANIES;3GLOBALLIGHTINGGIANTSFURTHERENHANCETHEIRTECHNOLOGYANDCHANNELNETWORKSBYMAS;AND4SMALL/MIDSIZELIGHTINGCOMPANIES/CHANNELSCOOPERATEWITHLEDMAKERSOVERSUPPLYISSTILLTHEMAJORDOWNSIDERISKTHEINDUSTRYMAYCONTINUETOFACETHERISKOFOVERSUPPLY,INOURVIEWWEESTIMATETHATTHELEADTIMEFORNEWCAPACITYRAMPUPIS36MONTHSWEBELIEVELEDLIGHTINGSUPPLYFROMTHEUPSTREAMISNOWMUCHMOREFLEXIBLETHANDURINGTHEGOLDENPERIODOFLEDTVSDURING3Q092Q10THEINDUSTRYISCURRENTLYSUFFERINGFROMASEVEREOVERSUPPLYOFOVER50,ONOURESTIMATES,RESULTINGINSIGNIFICANTPROFITDETERIORATIONWEBELIEVELEDMAKERSWILLCONTINUETOSUFFERLOWUTILIZATIONSIN2012FDUETOSIGNIFICANTLEDCAPACITY,SLOWLEDTVDEMANDANDIMMATURELEDLIGHTINGD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