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毕业论文外文文献翻译RiskandPriceintheBiddingProcessofContractorsSamuelLaryea1andWillHughes2【Abstract】Formalandanalyticalriskmodelsprescribehowriskshouldbeincorporatedintoconstructionbids.However,theactualprocessofhowcontractorsandtheirclientsnegotiateandagreetopriceiscomplexandnotclearlyarticulatedintheliterature.Withparticipantobservation,theentiretenderprocesswasshadowedintwoleadingU.K.constructionfirms.Thiswascomparedwithpropositionsinanalyticalmodels,andsignificantdifferenceswerefound.Atotalof670hofworkobservedinbothfirmsrevealedthreestagesofthebiddingprocess.Biddingactivitieswerecategorizedandtheirextentestimatedasdeskwork32,calculations19,meetings14,documents13,offdays11,conversations7,correspondence3,andtravel1.Riskallowancesof1–2werepricedinsomebids,andthreetiersofriskapportionmentinbidswereidentified.However,pricedrisksmaybeexcludedfromthefinalbidtoenhancecompetitiveness.Althoughriskapportionmentaffectsacontractorspricingstrategy,othercomplexmicroeconomicfactorsalsoaffectprice.Insteadofincludingpricingcontingencies,riskwaspricedprimarilythroughcontractualratherthanpricemechanismstoreflectcommercialimperatives.Thesefindingsexplainwhysomeassumptionsunderpinninganalyticalmodelsmaynotbesustainableinpracticeandwhywhatactuallyhappensinpracticeisimportantforthosewhoseektomodelthepricingofconstructionbids.【Keywords】BiddingContractorsParticipantobservationRiskapportionmentUnitedKingdomIntroductionFormalandanalyticalriskmodelsthatcontractorscanincorporateintothebiddingprocessforthepurposeofallocatingriskcontingencieshaveproliferatedinrecentyearse.g.,afuzzysetmodelbyZengetal.2007afuzzylogicbasedartificialneuralnetworkmodelbyLiuandLing12005afuzzysetmodelbyPaeketal.1993afuzzysetmodelbyTahetal.1993andaninfluencediagrammingbasedtechniquebyAlBaharandCrandall1990.However,severalempiricalstudiesofcontractorshaveshownthattheyarerarelyusedinpracticesevencontractorsintheUnitedKingdomstudiedbyTahetal.199430intheUnitedKingdomstudiedbyAkintoyeandMacLeod199712intheUnitedStatesstudiedbySmithandBohn199984intheUnitedKingdomstudiedbyAkintoyeandFitzgerald200038inHongKongstudiedbyWongandHui2006and60inHongKongstudiedbyChanandAu2007.ThispaperwilldemonstratethatthrelationshipbetweenriskandpriceintheprocessusedbycontractorstocalculatetheirbidsforconstructionworkisnotarticulatedsufficientlyintheliteraturealthoughitissummarizedinLaryeaandHughes2008.Mostanalyticalriskmodelsproposedbyacademicresearchershavesoughttoprescribehowriskshouldbeincludedinabiddingprice.However,theactualprocessofhowcontractorsandtheirclientsnegotiateandagreeonpriceiscomplexandnotclearlydocumentedinmostoftheliterature.AsexplainedinaconstructioncontractstextbookbyMurdochandHughes2008,p.128,manycontractsforconstructionworkarecreatedbytheprocessoftender,whichofteninvolvessomeformofmarketcompetitionthatclientsusetoobtainthelowestpricefromcontractors.Thefactthatthepricingofworkoccursinthetenderprocessmeansthatfirst,abasicunderstandingofthewholetenderprocessusedbycontractorstoarriveatabiddingpriceisneeded.Second,abasicunderstandingofhowandinwhatcircumstancespriceisinfluencedbytheapportionmentofriskisneeded.However,littleempiricalresearchexistsabouttheprocessusedbycontractorstoputtogetherabiddingprice,asshowninAppendixI.Withoutapreciseunderstandingofhowcontractorspriceabidandaccountforrisksinreality,itwouldbedifficulttoconceptualizeanalyticalmodelsforapproachingriskresponseinthewaythatitnormallyhappensinpractice.Riskassessmentshouldhaveaseriousinfluenceonacontractorspricingstrategy,butotherfactorsalsoaffectprice.Thepriceclientsarewillingtopayforconstructionworkdependsnotonlyontheiravailableresources,butalsoonwhatothersellersi.e.,contractorsinthemarketarewillingtoofferforthesameproduct.SeethemicroeconomictheoryofthebehaviorofindividualcompetitivemarketsinLipsey1979,p.93.2Abiddingpricemaybedependentonthemarketorcompetitiveenvironmentinwhichittakesplace.Brook2004explainsthatbiddingofteninvolvestwoprocesses.First,estimatingisthestageinwhichtheactualprojectcostsareconsidered.Thisprocessmaydependonthelevelofexpertiseinacontractorsestimatingdepartment.Second,adjudicationisthestageinwhichthedirectorsofafirmtakeacommercialviewoftheestimatedcostinthecontextofthefirmsparticularcircumstances,marketconditions,andrisk.Managementwillultimatelytrytopitchthebiddingpricebetweencostandvaluetowinthework.SeetheexplanationinMurdochandHughes2008,pp.138–139.Theapproachusedbycontractorstoevaluateriskintheprocessofpitchingtheirbiddingpricetorespondtothesefactorsisnotalwaysclearlyexplainedintheliterature,asshowninAppendixI.However,severalanalyticalapproacheshavebeenproposedtohelpcontractorsdealwithriskwhenbidding.Withoutasufficientunderstandingofhowcontractorsactuallypriceabidandconsiderrisksinreality,itwouldbehardtoconceptualizeanalyticalmodelsthatalignwithwhatcontractorsactuallydo.However,asSkitmoreandWilcock1994,p.142acknowledged,itishardtogetcontractorstoparticipateinstudiesofthisnatureprimarilybecauseofthecommerciallysensitivedatainvolved.Severalstudiesofcontractorshaveshownthatcontractorsareoftenreluctanttofullyaccountforthecostofriskintheirbiddingpricetoavoidinflatingtheirpricewithriskallowancesandbecomeuncompetitive.See,forexample,aninterviewstudyof12U.S.contractorsbySmithandBohn1999andaquestionnairestudyof400U.S.contractorsbyMochtarandArditi2001.Thus,itisnotsurprisingthatseveralstudieshaveshownthatmostcontractorsrarelyapproachtheincorporationofriskintheirbidproposalsaccordingtothecontingencyallocationtheoryprescribedbymostanalyticalmodels.Italsoimpliesthatotherriskresponsemechanismsareprobablyusedbycontractorsthatcouldbesharedandusedtoguidepracticalriskanalysistechniques.BackgroundRiskisapartofbusinessendeavorsbecauseofuncertaintyFlanaganandNorman1993FischerandJordan1996.Portfoliotheoryandcapitalmarkettheorystipulatethattotalriskconsistsof3twotypesofriskFischerandJordan1996.First,systematicrisk,whichcannotbecontrolled,emanatesfromexternalfactorssuchasactsofGod,naturaldisasters,marketrisk,interestraterisk,andpurchasingpowerrisk.Second,unsystematicrisk,whichcanbecontrolled,relatestoorganizationspecificfactorssuchasbusinessriskandfinancialrisk.Theseformsofriskarefundamentaltotheconstructioninternalandexternalriskandtheinsurancepureandspeculativeriskindustries.See,forexample,astudyonriskallocationintendersbyTahetal.1993andthetextbookaboutinsurancebyDorfman2002.AsshowninthefinancialanalysistextbookbyFischerandJordan1996,onewayofpricingaproducttomeetexpectedprofitistoquantifyriskandbuildarequiredrateofreturnthatrepresentsarisklessratepluscompensationforindividualriskfactors.Connolly2006explainedthatriskhascost,whichcansometimesbecatastrophic.However,itisnoteasytopredictortopricerisk,asshowninasurveyofthetop400U.S.contractors,whichrevealedthatpricingisacomplexanddifficulttaskforentrepreneursMochtarandArditi2001.AccordingtoaconceptualstudybyMulhollandandChristian1999inwhichananalyticalapproachwasproposedforriskassessmentinconstructionschedules,constructionprojectsareinitiatedincomplexanddynamicenvironments,resultingincircumstancesofhighuncertaintyandrisk,whicharecompoundedbydemandingtimeconstraints.FlanaganandNorman1993explainedthateveryconstructionprojectisuniqueinitsfeaturesandrisk.However,riskisnotuniquetotheconstructionsector,asexplainedinthetextbookaboutsubjectiveprobabilitybyWrightandAyton1994.Inthedefinitiveguidanceoneconomictheoryandtheconstructionindustry,thewritersobservedthatitismoreoftenthewayasetoffactorscombinetoaffectconstructionworkthatmakestheindustryuniqueHillebrandt1985.Inahistoricaloverviewoftheconstructionindustry,HughesandHillebrandt2003,p.508–510showedthatthesefactorsrelatetotheeconomic,contractual,political,andphysicalenvironmentsinwhichconstructionprojectstakeplace,andtheytendtoaffectthewayconstructionworkisdescribed,awarded,anddocumented.Thesefactorsincludethenecessitytopricetheproductbeforeproduction,competitivetendering,lowfixedcapitalrequirements,preliminaryexpenses,delaystocashinflow,thetendencytooperatewithtoolittleworkingcapital,seasonaleffects,pricefluctuations,governmentintervention,theactivityrelatedtodevelopment,uncertaingroundconditions,unpredictableweather,andnoperformanceliabilityorlongtermguarantees.Thesefactorsare4alsoexplainedinCalvertetal.1995andKwakye1997whoalsoshowthatconstructionprojectsaremostlycomplex,havealongproductioncycle,andinvolvetheinputofmanyparticipants.Insomeaspectsofconstructionmanagemente.g.,BaloiandPrice2003,p.262,andAhmedetal.2002,p.4,researchershavearguedthatcontractorsarepooratmanagingrisk,simplybecausetheexperientialbasedmechanismstheyarereportedtouseinapproachingriskarenotsystematicinnature.However,thisassertiondoesnotringtrue,inthelightofotherdescriptionsoftheconstructionsector.AhistoricaloverviewoftheconstructionindustrybyHughesandHillebrandt2003,p.511showsthatfromtheearlypartofthnineteenthcentury,contractorshaverespondedtorisksintheconstructionindustrybyusingvariousmeans.Mostcontractorshaveresortedtotheconstructionofspeculativehousinginthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturiestosustainthelaborforceandbusinesscoststhroughthepeaksandtroughsofcontractedwork.Agrowingtendencyexistsforcontractorstousetheirpositivecashflowtoinvestinpublic/privatepartnershipsPPPandprivatefinanceinitiativePFIprojectsinwhichgovernmentsencouragetheuseofprivatesectorcapitaltoprocurepublicservices.Morerecently,successfulcontractorsarediversifyingintobusinesseswhosecyclescounteractthoseoftheconstructionindustry.Contractorsaremitigatingriskbydecliningworkperceivedastoorisky,subcontractinglargeportionsoftheirworktoothers,andapportioningriskinwagestructures.Inessence,theyarepassingriskontoothersinthesupplychain.Thesecontractorsdoseemadeptatmanagingrisk.However,byitsverynature,riskisdifficulttomitigatefullyinallbusinesssectorsnotjustintheconstructionindustry.Constructionpractitionersareoftentrainedtoaccountforriskinprojects,particularly,forexample,withthecompilationofariskregister,asoutlinedbytheProjectManagementInstitutePMI2004,pp.237–268.Thisdemonstratesthattheimportanceofriskanalysisisunderstoodbypractitioners.However,adetaileddescriptionofhowcontractorsgetfromtheirunderstandingofrisktosettingapriceisnottypicallyexplainedintheliterature.Theconstructionmanagementliteraturearticulatesexperienceandintuitionastheprimarymechanismsthatcontractorsuseforpricingrisks.Forexample,asurveyof400U.S.contractorsbyMochtarandArditi2001showedthatInsettingtheirbidoffer,mostcontractorsrelyontheirintuitionaftersubjectivelyassessingthecompetitionmostcontractorsdonotusespecialpricingsoftware.However,most5analyticalapproachesappeartoarguethatexperienceandintuitiondonotformanadequateprofessionalandobjectivebasisforseriousprojectmanagementdecisionsAlBaharandCrandall1990.Morethan60systematicandrationalapproacheshavebeenproposedaslogicalsubstitutesforthetraditional,intuitive,unsystematicapproachusedbymostcontractorsforassessingandpricingriskLaryeaandHughes2008.However,inmostofthestudiesreviewed,noreferencewasmadetoanycomprehensiveempiricalworkthatexplainshowcontractorsactuallyaccountforriskinthewholetenderprocess.SeveralwritersKangariandRiggs1989Paeketal.1993Tahetal.1993LiuandLing2005havealsoproposedanalyticalmodelsthatcontractorscanusetoassessriskinthebiddingprocess.Citingthelackofsignificantworkinconstructionriskanalysisbyfuzzysets,KangariandRiggs1989proposedafuzzysetriskassessmentmethodologythatcangivecontractorsamorerationalbasisonwhichtomakedecisions.Thewritersshowedhowariskvalue,calculatedbyusingfuzzysetprinciples,maybeincludedasariskpremiuminbids.However,noreferencewasmadetoanyempiricalresearchaboutwhatcontractorsactuallydo.Byusingthesamefuzzysettheory,Paeketal.1993proposedariskpricingmethodthatcontractorscanuseforanalyzingandpricingriskwhenfacedwiththeproblemofdecidingthebiddingpriceofaconstructionprojectwhenthelikelihoodoftheoccurrenceofriskeventsandtheriskassociatedconsequencesareuncertain.Themodelprescribedhowanoptimumriskpremiumshouldbeincludedinconstructionbids.Heretoo,noreferencewasmadetoanyempiricalresearchaboutwhatcontractorsactuallydo.Tahetal.1993developedaconceptualmodelforcontractorsriskassessmentduringtenderpreparationforthepurposeofallocatingcontingenciestocovertherisksbyusingtheprinciplesoffuzzysettheory.LiuandLing2005introducedafuzzylogicbasedartificialneuralnetworkmodeltohelpcontractorsintheestimationofmarkupinachangeableanduncertainconstructionenvironment.Injustifyingthemodeldevelopment,LiuandLingarguedthatitisimportanttobeabletomodelmarkupestimationasthemodelcanactasadecisionaidtohelpcontractorstoovercometheirshortcomingsinjudgmentandlimitedshorttermmemory,whichpreventsthemfromprocessinglargeamountsofinformation.However,thestudycitednoevidencetoshowthatcontractorsdoindeedhaveshortcomingsintheirjudgmentoralimitedshorttermmemory,forwhichreason6theyrequireasophisticatedmodeltohelpinmarkupestimation.Thispaperarguesthatthemechanismsusedbycontractorstopricerisksinthebiddingprocessshouldguidepracticalriskanalysistechniques.Thewaythatcontractorsandtheirclientsnegotiateandagreeonpriceiscomplexandnotwellexplainedinmostoftheliterature.SeveralexperientialbasedtextbooksandmaterialsaboutestimatingandbiddingwereidentifiedBrook2004Buchanetal.2003Hinze1993Harrison1981Skitmore1989Smith1986Geddes1985Wood1982EnterkinandReynolds1978WainwrightandWood1977Hall1972Willis1929.However,justafewempiricalstudiesaboutwhatcontractorsactuallydowereidentifiedseeAppendixI,andthesedidnotseemtoarticulatesufficientlywhatcontractorsactuallydoduringtheentirebiddingprocess.Inpractice,contractorsclearlyaccountforriskswhencalculatingtheirbidsforconstructionwork.Analyticalriskmodelscouldbeuseful.However,nocomprehensivestudyexiststhatexplainstheentirebiddingprocessofcontractorsandparticularlyhowriskisaccountedforintheprocess.Withoutapreciseunderstandingofwhatcontractorsactuallydowhentheycalculatetheirbidsforconstructionwork,itwouldbedifficulttoprescribeimprovements,andthebasisoftheinformationusedinteachingaboutbiddingprocessesinconstructionschoolswouldremainopentoquestion.Therefore,thefollowingquestionsshouldbeaddressedWhatbasictasksareinvolvedinabidcalculationprocess,andtowhatextentdotheyconsumeinthetimeneededtopreparethebidWhatbasicstagesandrolesareinvolvedinthebiddingprocessHowisriskaccountedforinthecalculationofconstructionbidsTowhatextentisthebidcalculationprocesssystematicinnatureWithoutempiricalworkexplainingwhatactuallyhappensinpractice,whichwouldguideorjustifythedevelopmentofanewapproach,theviciouscircleseemsinevitable.Ourabilitytoprescribeimprovementse.g.,analyticalmodelsisdependentonourabilitytopreciselydescribereality.Withthecurrentempiricalunderstandingofwhatcontractorsactuallydoduringtheentirebiddingprocess,wecansafelyprescribeverylittle.Ourpurposeinthispaperistoconductacomprehensive,inductive,andintensivestudyseeMintzberg1973,pp.230–231thatcapturestheentirebiddingprocessand7describesthespecificmannerinwhichcontractorsaccountforriskwhenpricingwork,thusprovidingabasisforcomparingtheoreticalriskanalysismodelswiththeactualpracticeofriskanalysis.Thisunderstandingwillhelptoguidefuturedevelopmentstosupportcontractorsintheirpricingofwork.SpecificObjectivesThespecificobjectivesofthisstudyaretoreviewtheanalyticalapproachesproposedbyacademicresearchersforcontractorsriskanalysisi.e.,theorytoascertainhowcontractorsactuallyaccountforriskinthebiddingprocessi.e.,practiceandtocomparethetheorywithpracticetoshowhowthefindingscanguidefuturedevelopmentstosupportcontractorsintheirpricingofwork.GeneralResearchApproachToachievetheresearchobjectives,threethingsarenecessary.Thefirst,identifyingandexamininganalyticalapproachesproposedintheliteratureforcontractorsriskanalysis,requiresacomprehensivemethodforcapturingtheanalyticalmodelsandlearningabouttheirpropositionsandunderlyingassumptions.Thesecond,ascertainingwhatcontractorsactuallydoaboutrisksduringtheentirebidpricingprocess,requiresacomprehensivemethodforcapturingpricingactivities,observingwhatcontractorsdowhentheyputtogetheraprice,andlearningaboutwhatfeaturestheyaccountfor,includingtheextenttowhichtheyapportionriskandthemechanismsthattheyuseforbuildinguptheircontingencies.Thethird,comparingresultsfromthefirsttwoobjectivestoidentifypotentialareasofsignificantdifference,allowsforrecommendationsthatwillguidefuturedevelopments.8承包商在投标过程中的风险和价格塞缪尔拉里亚休斯【摘要】正式的风险分析模型规定风险应如何考虑进施工投标。然而,承包商如何和客户谈判并同意价格的实际过程是复杂的,没有明确的阐述。相关者研究跟踪了两个具有领导地位的英国建筑公司。这与分析模型相比有显著的差异。670个小时的工作观察到两家公司三个阶段的投标过程。将招标活动进行分类,按照重要程度分为文书工作(32)、计算(19)、会议(14)、文件(13)、假期(11)、对话(7)、通信(3)、旅游(1)。部分投标价格12的风险津贴和三个层次的风险分摊在投标中确定。然而,为了提高竞争力,价格确定的风险可能被排除。虽然风险的分摊影响承包商价格的确定,但是其他复杂的微观经济因素也会影响价格的确定。不包括意外风险定价,定价主要是通过合同而非价格机制反映商业规则。这些研究结果解释了为什么一些假设的基础分析模型可能不可持续发展和为什么实际发生在实践中的那些谁寻求模型定价施工投标的重要。【关键字】招标,承包商,参与观察,风险分摊,英国前言正式的和分析的风险模型,承包商可以纳入到招标过程中分配风险突发事件的目的在近年激增。例如,曾庆红等模糊集模型(2007年)刘灵(2005)基于模糊逻辑的人工神经网络模型白南舜等模糊集模型(1993年)TAH等模糊集模型(1993年)AlBahar和克兰德尔(1990)的影响图表的基础技术。然而,几个承包商的实证研究已表明,他们在实践中很少使用TAH等研究7个承建商在英国(1994年)在英国30个研究Akintoye和MacLeod(1997)12个在美国史密斯和博恩(1999)研究84个Akintoye和菲茨杰拉德(2000年)在英国学习38个在香港黄惠(2006)研究,以及在香港60个陈和金(2007)研究。本文将证明,次承建商用于计算施工投标过程中的风险和价格之间的关系是不充分,虽然它在拉里亚和休斯(2008)总结阐述文献。大多数分析的风险模型,学术研究者提出要求,订立如何应对在投标价格中包含的风险。然而,承包商如何和他们的客户谈判,并同意在价格上的实际过程是复杂的,并没有明确的大部分文献记录。于2008年,默多克和休斯(第128页)在施工合同教科书中解释,在许多施工合同投标过程中,往往涉及某种形式的市场竞争,业主会利用这种竞争从
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