外文翻译---隐蔽性通货膨胀的影响及其应用

1 中文 2640 字 本科毕业论文（设计） 外 文 翻 译 外文出处 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2008,173-182 外文作者 Cengiz Kahraman,Tufan Demirel,and Nihan Demirel 原文 ： Effects of Inflation under Fuzziness and Some Applications Abstract:This chapter presents the ways of incorporating the parameter fuzzy inflation to the engineering economy analyses. Inflation is a financial parameter difficult to estimate. The fuzzy set theory gives us the possibility of converting linguistic expressions about inflation estimates to numerical values. In the chapter, discounted cash flow techniques including these fuzzy expressions and some numerical examples are given. The obtained results show the interval of the worst and the best possible outcomes when fuzzy inflation rates are taken into account. 1 Introduction Inflation is an increase in the amount of money necessary to obtain the same amount of product or service before the inflated price was present. With the inflation in anytime prices rise and the purchasing power decreases, it takes more dollars for the same amount of goods or services. Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It has the oppositeeffects, with deflation prices decrease and the purchasing power increases. With the deflation, it takes fewer dollars in the future to buy the same amount of goods or services as it does today. The governments can be face to face with the inflation much more commonly than deflation at national economy (Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993). 2 Most people are undoubtedly aware that inflation has to do with price increases. What is perhaps less well-known is that the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat over time. Originally the word inflation was used to describe a characteristic of money that its value was eroded. This happens when all prices in an economy rise at the same rate over time. When all prices rise at the same rate,households incomes (for example wages) increase as much as their expenses. This means that households have to pay more for the same quantity of goods. However,neither household consumption nor its actual value (utility) is affected when all prices rise at the same rate. Over time, however, the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat. Today it is often used synonymously with the words price increase and can there by describe any kind of price rises, not just increases in all prices. For example, one often hears of wage inflation, domestic inflation or imported inflation. None of these terms mean an increase in all prices. Rather, they refer to rises in the prices of certain specific goods or services. The most common and most well-known measure of inflation is the change in the consumer price index - the CPI. The CPI is a so-called cost-of-living index or compensation index. This means that the CPI measures how consumers cost of living changes over time. If consumers incomes increase at the same rate as their cost of living, their utility will be unchanged over time. The CPI is often used for exactly this purpose - as a basis for adjusting pensions or determining how compensation clauses in different agreements should be interpreted. To adjust for the effects of inflation in project evaluation, most authors prefer to use a general index, such as the Consumers Price Index. The reason is as follows: Since it is the investors real income or purchasing power that we seek to enhance,there is a slight advantage in choosing an index of Consumer Goods prices such as the CPI. The changeable value of currency is the reason of inflation. With the inflation the currency value goes down. The inflation and deflation can be occurred as higher prices for food, cars, and other purchased commodities and services for the people. 3 On the other hand for the business and government, inflation has eroded the purchasingpower of savings and earnings, if interest rates and salary raises have not kept pace with general price trends. Inflation types are shown below: Cost push inflation: Increases in producers costs that are passed along to customers,sometimes with disproportionate escalations that push prices up. Demand-pull inflation: Excessive spending power of consumers, sometimes obtained at the expense of savings that pulls prices up. When the literature is searched, we can see that there are few works on fuzzy inflation.Kahraman and Tolga (1995) examine the effects of fuzzy inflation rate on aftertaxrate calculations. De and Goswami (2006) present an EOQ model with fuzzyinflation rate and fuzzy deterioration rate when a delay in payment is permissible. 2 Relation between Inflation and Interest Inflation affects everyone with some degree. The degree of inflation affects the consequences when inflation is mild, the economy prospers. When inflation is moderate,increased demand pulls prices still higher. When inflation is severe, prices rise much faster than wages do. When inflation is hyperinflation (this is the most dangerous level of inflation), this uncontrolled inflation destroys a nations economy (Park2006). Hyperinflation is a problem in countries where political instability, overspending by the government, weak international trade balances, etc., is present (Sharp-Betteand Park 1990). When the government has inflation in its economy, first of all it pays attention to credit restrictions, wage controls, contraction of the money supply, reduction in demand by raising taxes, increased demand by reducing taxes, enlarged supply of goods through greater productivity stimulated by investment incentives and wage-price guidelines backed by political persuasion to manage inflation and its effects on the economy (Park 2006). On the other hand the government can redefine the currency in terms of the currency of another country, control banks and corporations, and control of the flow of capital into and out of the country in order to decrease inflation(Sharp-Bette and Park 1990). 4 Most of the engineering economists are more interested in the effects of inflation than its causes and corrections. Due to inflation, a dollar assumes different values at different times. The dollars do not have the same value for yesterday, today and tomorrow. The engineering economists have to predict the dollars values and organize their works by concerning with inflation and also they have to research what would happen if inflation became high level such as moderate or severe. 2.1 Inflation Measurement The measurement of inflation is difficult because the prices of different goods and services do not increase or decrease by the same amount, they change at different times by the different amounts. The calculation of a general inflation rate can be changed by geographical differences in prices and different buying habits of consumers. The whole sale price index, producer price index, and consumer price index are used for the measurement of inflation rates. The consumer price index is the most commonly used technique for the inflation rate measurement. The whole sale price index (WPI): This index measures inflation at the whole sale level for both consumer and industrial goods. Producer price index (PPI): This index measures average changes in prices receivedby producers of all commodities. On the other hand PPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by producers(Blank and Tarquin 2002). Consumer price index (CPI): For calculation of CPI, prices for goods are obtained monthly and are averaged according to demographic distributions. Then the prices are weighted according to the expenditure proportions of the typical family (Park2006). CPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by ultimate consumers (Blank and Tarquin 2002). In CPI seven different things are measured as fixed market basket of goods, foods and beverages,housing, apparel and upkeep, transportation, medical care, entertainment, and other (education, personal care, etc.). This index shows the effect of retail price changes on a selected standard of living. 5 2.2 Impact of Inflation The analysts have to be interested in the impact of inflation on economic evaluations. There are two basic methods for researchers in the literature for consideration of inflation in their calculations. Constant (real) dollars: All cash flows are converted to money units that have constant purchasing power for eliminating inflation effects. It is generally easier to estimate future costs in constant dollars because the estimator is familiar with todays values. On the other hand there are two weaknesses limiting the usefulness of the constant dollar: tax effects are ignored and no provision is made for differences inescalation rates among price and cost components (Biermann and Smidt 1990). It is denoted “R$”. Future dollars: In the amount of money units that are called future dollars actually exchanged at the time of each transaction for estimating cash flows. Future dollars are sometimes called then-current dollars, nominal dollars, or actual dollars. It is denoted as “A$” It is a simple matter to convert estimates in real dollar flow to actual dollar flow when inflation is assumed to be a constant rate. To make comparisons between monetary amounts which occur in different time periods, the different-valued dollars must first be converted to constant value dollars in order to represent the same purchasing power over time (Sharp-Bette and Park 1990). As an economic evaluation, when the rate of inflation increases, there is a corresponding increase in the market interest rate. Inflation is differential rather than uniform. Goods and services prices do not always change proportionately. Including the effect of inflation is a second-order refinement for economic evaluations; the first-order refinement was the inclusion of the effect of taxes on basic cash flow. For eliminating weaknesses of the constant dollar approach, the analysts can use after-tax actual cash flow comparisons. In the literature, there are three different comparisons for actual cash flows: No responsive charges in after-tax analysis. Multiple inflation rates in an after-tax analysis. 6 After-tax modified cash flow comparison. 译文 ： 隐蔽性通货膨胀的影响及其应用 摘要：这个章节主要包扩隐蔽性通货膨胀分析方法。通货膨胀是一个难以估计的财政参数。隐蔽性通货膨胀理论告诉我们如何表达通货膨胀以及如何用数值表达隐蔽性通货膨胀。在本章节中，忽略了现金流量的影响，表述了隐蔽性的概念以及列举一些数据。结果显示在考虑了隐蔽性通货膨胀后的最坏可能结果和最好可能结果结果的差距。 一、简介 : 通货膨胀概念指的是货币的增长没有与之对应的相同数量的产品或者服务，在通货膨胀下物价是当前物价。在通货膨胀时期，随着物价上升货币购买力会减少，将来将花费更多的美元才 得到和今天相同数量的产品或服务。通货紧缩是通货膨胀的对立面起到相反的效果，当通货紧缩时期，物价下降和货币购买力增加，将来将花费更少的美元得到和今天相同的数量产品或服务。通常情况下，政府面对通货膨胀情况多于通货紧缩的情况（ Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993）。 毫无疑问，多数人认为通货膨胀必伴随物价增加。但很少有人知道通货膨胀一词的意思已随着时间的流逝发生改变 了。最初通货膨胀一词用来描述价值被贬值的货币的特征。这发生在经济和物价同比增长的时候。所有物价以相同的比率上升时，家庭的收入（例如工资）增长和家庭支出相同。这表示家庭必须为相同的数量的商品支付更多的货币。然而，在物价上升相同比率时，家庭支出和实际的价值（效用）均不受其影响 随着经济的发展，通货膨胀一词的意思有所改变。现在通货膨胀经常被定义为当物价不同增长时可以描述多种物价上涨，不只在所有物价相同比率增长的情况。例如，我们经常听说工资通货膨胀，国内通货膨胀或进口通货膨胀。这些并不意味着所有商品的价格都上涨。更 确切地说，他们指的是某些特定产品或服务物价的上涨。 计量通货膨胀的最多最常用的方法是消费者物价指数 - CPI。 CPI 是所谓的7 生活成本指数或补偿指数。 CPI 是用来测量消费者生活成本随着时间的变化而变化。如果消费者的收入和生活成本增长相通，他们的效用随着时间的流逝将是不变的。 CPI 经常被用来确定这样的目标即用于调整养老金或确定协议的补偿条款应该怎样的得到的补偿数。 为调整项目评估中通货膨胀的效果，多数作者喜欢使用一个常规的指数，例如消费者物价指数。理由如下：它是投资者的实际收入或我们试图提高的购买力，这是使用 CPI 的一个好处。 货币的可变价值是通货膨胀的原因。当通货膨胀时，货币价值下降。通货膨胀和通货紧缩更容易发生在如食物，汽车，等商品和服务物价上升时时候。在另一方面对商业和政府而言，如果利率和工资薪酬的增加没有跟上一般物价的增长，那么通货膨胀就会削弱了储蓄和收入购买力。 通货膨胀的类型如下： 成本推动通货膨胀：生产者的成本增加转嫁给消费者 ,从而成本增长不成比例的拉动物价增长 需求拉动通货膨胀：过度的消费能力限制了储蓄增长，从而带动了物价的增长。 收索相关文献，我们发现隐藏的通货膨胀导致失业。 Kahraman 和 Tolga（ 1995 年）计算了隐蔽通货膨胀的税后影响。 De 和 Goswami（ 2006 年）发表了一个关于测量隐蔽性通货膨胀率和延期付款后隐蔽程度的 EOQ 模型。 二通胀和利率之间的关系 通货膨胀在一定程度上影响每个人。通货膨胀程度决定了通货膨胀的影响程度。在温和通货膨胀下，经济缓慢增长，日益增加的需求拉动物价。在恶性通货膨胀下，物价上涨高于工资上涨。当处在恶性通货膨胀时（恶性通货膨胀是通货膨胀之中危险水平最高的），不受控制的通货膨胀摧毁一个国家的经济水平 ( Park2006 )。当一个国 家政治不稳定、政府过度支出、国际贸易失衡，等等（夏普 -Betteand 公园 1990 年）将出现恶性通货膨胀的问题。当一国政府经济上出现通货膨胀时，首先该国信用贷款水平受到限制，其次工资水平受到限制，货币供给量减少，税收增加需求减少或税收减少需求增加，说服管理当局增加投资或提高工资水平来刺激生产力从而