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目前拉脱维亚正在经历严重的经济危机,相似的情况表现在与经济相关的房地产市场上。拉脱维亚的例子是不合理而且太迅速和失衡发展的,这消极地影响了国民经济和今后房地产市场的发展。拉脱维亚的居民为房地产花费的抵押贷款不得不在许多年后偿还。但是真正的问题是价格很可能不再达到早先的水平,因此意味着信贷资金花费在被人为夸大价格的物产上。房地产市场的未来发展将在较大程度上受经济因素的影响。同时房地产市场也许在整体经济复苏之前恢复,例如,由以前没被提及的因素如投资者活动、政府政策,人口数据和其他因素引起。来源DIDZISADMIDIĥS,JANISZVANITAJS,PH.D.PerspectivesofInnovations,EconomicsBusiness,2009,Vol.35254INDUSTRIES,CONCEPTS,SECTORALPOLICIESINDUSTRIES,CONCEPTS,SECTORALPOLICIESKeywordsRealestatemarket,economicdevelopment,economyofLatvia.AbstractThisarticlereviewstherealestatemarketdevelopmentdynamicsoverthelastdecadeinLatvia.Thearticledescribestheinfluenceofvariouseconomicfactorsontherealestatemarket.Thesefactorsaregrossdomesticproduct,unemployment,creditingamount,retailsalesturnover,andothers.ThearticleprovidesinsightintothemostcriticaldevelopmentperiodsofeconomyandpropertymarketinLatviaandexplainstheirregularities.IntroductionDevelopmentofrealestatemarketinLatviaoverthelastdecadehasbeenrapidanddynamic.Itattractedgreatattentionfromlocalpeopleaswellasfromforeigninvestors.VariousactivitiesinrealestatemarketchangedtheattitudeofpeopleinLatviatowardsrealestateastheyrealizedthatrealestatehadvalue.Duringthelastdecadetherewasobservablesignificantincreaseofinvestmentsinrealestate,especiallyafterLatviabecameamemberoftheEuropeanUnionon1stMay,2004.Itwasthetimewhenmajorityofmostforeigncommercialbanksstruggledformarketsharebygivingoutmortgageloansand,thus,contributingtothegrowthofdemandinrealestatemarket.Themarketpriceincertainsegmentsoftherealestatemarketgrewbymorethan50peryear,whichinitsturncausedunbalanceddevelopmentofthemarket,namely,salariesgrewmuchslowerthanthepricesofrealestate.However,since2007therealestatemarketisexperiencingconsiderablechangeswhichmostlyappearasdecreaseofpriceswithmanyresultingconsequences.Themarketpriceincertainsegmentsoftherealestatemarketgrewbymorethan50peryear,whichinitsturncausedunbalanceddevelopmentofthemarket,namely,salariesgrewmuchslowerthanthepricesofrealestate.However,since2007therealestatemarketisexperiencingconsiderablechangeswhichmostlyappearasdecreaseofpriceswithmanyresultingconsequences.Thisarticlesetsoutdataabouttherealestatemarketdevelopmentsince2000itdiscussesdetailsofmacroeconomicsituationinthisperiod.ThesegmentofrealestatemarketanalyzedinthisarticleisserialapartmentsinRiga.Followingeconomydescribingfactorswereexaminedgrossdomesticproduct,unemployment,inflation,retailturnover,andothers.Thearticlereviewsthestudywhichisconcentratedonfindingcorrelationbetweendifferentmacroeconomicfactorsandthedevelopmentofrealestatemarket,andconsideringthesecorrelationstryingtopredictpossibledevelopmentofrealestatemarketinfuture.RealestatemarkeDuringthelastdecadetherealestatemarketinLatviahasdevelopedverydynamically.Untilthefirsthalfof2007therewasobservedaveryhighactivityofthemarket,whichwascombinedwithrisingpricesunfortunately,itchangedtopricedecreaseinthesecondhalfof2007.SowasthesituationwithserialapartmentmarketinRiga.SerialapartmentsoccupythemajorpartofthehousingmarketfacilitiesinRigaand,althoughtheywerebuiltmostlybeforeLatviaregainedtheindependencein1991,theyareindemand.In2000serialapartmentaveragepricepersquaremeterwasaboutEUR250,comparingtotheaveragepriceEUR1720foronesquaremeterinApril2007.Intheperioduntil2007therewereseveralmonthswhenthepriceincreasepermonthwas5andmore.Thepricesincreasedinfactequallyinalldistrictsalsohithertoinactivedistrictswerebecomingactive.Ofcoursesmallerapartmentscomparingthepricepersquaremeterweremoreexpensivethatcomparativelylargeapartments.Overtimethepricesoftheadvertisedapartmentsraisedandpeoplewereoftheopinionthatthepriceswillneverdropagain,althoughmanyofthemwaitedforthepricestabilization.Therewerecommonexpertopinionsthatthepriceswillbecomestableandtheydonotcomplywiththerealmarketvalueanymorenonethelessthemarketindicatedtheopposite.AfterApril2007themarketpriceconstantlyreducedandtheprocesscontinuesuptillnow.InSeptember2009serialapartmentmarketpricewasEUR487peronesquaremeter,whichactuallymeansthatthemarketpricehasfallenbymorethan70fromthehighestpoint.ThemajorproblemofLatviasrealestatemarketisrelatedtothefactthatthepricewastoooverestimatedandcurrentlyitis,possibly,underestimated.Themarkethasexperiencedveryrapidfluctuationsintherelativelyveryshortperiodoftime,whichinsomewayshasunderminedthevaluesofthepopulation.SincethegreatestdeclineinMay2009therehavebeenobservedfirstindicationsofserialapartmentmarketstabilizationandcurrentlytheaveragepriceseverallastmonthsrangesaroundEUR500persquaremeter.Whilethepricecontinuesslightlytodecreasethedealersarenolongerwillingtosellforthatpriceandremovetheapartmentsfromtheoffer,thuslimitingtheoverallsupply.Consequentlyasituationariseswhendespitethenegativesignalsfromtheeconomicsector,itsnegativeimpactontherealestatemarketissmallandunabletostronglyaffectitinshortterm.However,observingthedevelopmentofmainfactorsdescribingtheeconomicalsituationinthepreviousperiodstherecanbeindicatedsomeregularitiesofthefactorsimpactingtherealestatemarket.CharacterizationofeconomicsThegrossdomesticproductofLatviainrecentyearshasincreasedveryrapidlybymorethan10peryearwhich,ofcourse,wastoofastfortheeconomyofLatvia.Economydevelopedunevenly,therewashighinflationandhighdomesticconsumptionatthesametime,whichismainlythecauseofthehighGDP.CurrentlyLatviaisnotabletokeeppositiveGDPincreasesincethesecondquarterof2008,whenthefirstnegativetendencywasrecorded,Latviasgrossdomesticproductdecreases.Inthefirstquarterof2009theeconomicdeclinewas18comparingtothesameperiod.lastyear,whichleadstotheconclusionaboutthesituationofeconomics.Thisfindingwasunpleasantsurpriserememberingthehighandstabledevelopmentoflastyears.ThedeclineofGDPisonlysummarizingcomplexsituationofeconomy.Thepopulationatthesametimeisveryconfusedaboutthepossibledevelopmentsofeconomyandthepessimisticpredictionsconsequentlyrespondtotherealestatemarket,namely,peoplechoosetodefertheirpurchases,eventhosewhocanaffordthebuying.Theimpactofpricedropisthesameasinthecaseofoverallpricedeflation,thatis,purchasesaredelayedandmoneyisspentonlyfortheverynecessarygoods,thatis,everyoneiswaitingforthepricedrop.Althoughthissituationcanchangepositively,ifthefallinpriceswillcontinuenextmonths,thatwillshowtheverylowestpointreachedandthatcouldalterthemoodofthepopulation.DropinGDPisaccompaniedbytheriseofunemploymentratewhichisacommonproblemirEuropebutinLatviaishasbecomeveryserious.WheninMay2008unemploymentratewasonly4.8whichisfairlylow,inAugust2009already12.3ofeconomicallyactiveinhabitantswereunemployed,besidestheratetendstoincrease.TheexampleofLatviareaffirmsthedescribedsituationineconomicaltheorythatemploymentrateisalaggingfactorofeconomiccyclefluctuationsintheperiodwhenthedeclineofeconomicsalreadystarted,unemploymentratestilldecreased,andonlyafterapproximatelysixmonthsitstartedtoincreaserapidly.Alsotheofficialdataofaveragewageapprovesthatsalaryisnotveryelasticintheperiodofcrises,unlikethenumberofworkplaceswhichisverysensitivefactor.Alsothelaggingindicatorsemploymentandinflationcontributetotheprognosisofeconomicalcycles.Gods,p.182.Howeverafterexaminingtherealestatemarketitcanbeconcludedthatthedeclineofthemarketmostlycorrespondswiththeperiodswhentheunemploymentrateincreases.TheFigure1depictsthedynamicsofserialapartmentmarketandunemploymentrateintheperiodfrom2000until2009.Asitcanbeclearlyseenbothfactorsdevelopinoppositedirections,namely,whentheunemploymentratedecreases,thepricesinrealestatemarketincreasesandviceversa.IntheperiodafterApril2007,whentherealestatemarketwasexperiencingadecline,thedecreaseofunemploymentratecontinuedforsometime.Buttheperiodofrapidunemploymentrateincreasecorrespondswithequallyrapiddropofpricelevelinserialapartmentmarket.Realizingthatthetransactionsinthismarketsegment,aswellasintheapartmentmarketingeneralaremainlymadebetweenprivateindividuals,itisselfevidentthattheincreaseofunemploymentratenegativelyaffectsthepricesofrealestatemarketfacilities.Ofcourse,unemploymentrateisnottheonlynegativefactoroffallinpricesinthisrealestatemarketsegment.Thisdeclineperiodisaccompaniedbynegativeexpectationsofthefuture,instabilityofthegovernment,whichdelayedreformsoftherealestatemarkettaxpolicy,inactivityofcommercialbankcrediting,aswellastheglobalcrisisinothercountries.Oneoftheindicatorsthatverypreciselydescribethepublicattitudetowardseconomicactivityisretailsalesturnover.Retailtradeturnoverhasmoredirectimpactoncommercialmarket,whichexperiencesasimilarscenarioastheserialapartmentmarket,withonlyaslightlag,butitindirectlyaffectsorindicatesalsothepublicmoodandwithitalsothepotentialapartmentmarketactivities.TheFigure2showstheregularitiesbetweentheincreaseanddeclineperiodsofserialapartmentmarketandretailturnoverdynamics.Attentionshouldbepaidtothefactthatretailturnoverinthisdiagramistherelativefigure,inthiscaseincreaseratecomparedtotherespectiveperiodinthepreviousperiods.Thediagramshowsthatwhiletheserialapartmentmarketisincreasing,alsoretailturnovermostlymaintainspositiveincrease,thatmeanstheretailturnoverincreases.Aboutthesametimewhentheserialapartmentmarketstartstodecline,alsotheretailturnoverincreasestarttoslowdown,whichlaterchangestotheturnoverdeclineordecreasecomparingtotherespectiveperiodlastyear.AfterjoiningtheEuropeanUnioninvestmentamountinLatviaincreasedandthatwasmostlydonebycrediting,namely,creditinstitutionswereveryinterestedincreditingthepurchaseofestatepropertybyofferingveryfavorableconditionsandthiswaslargelycausedbythecompetitionamongthebanks.Duringlastyearstheattitudeofinhabitantstowardscreditingwaslargelychanged.Thedemandinthismarketsegmentandotherrealestatemarketsegmentswereincreasinglyaffectedbymortgageloans.Wheninthebeginningof2000thetotalmortgageloansissuedtotheresidentsamountedtoalmost60millionlats,inthesecondhalfof2009thetotalamountofissuedcreditsexceeds8billionlats.Themacroeconomicalproblemisthatthemostpartofthosecreditswerereceivedatthetimewhenthepriceswerehigherthantheyarecurrentlyandcreditremainingamountisgreaterthanthepossiblevalueofrealestateproperties.Thisconsiderablylimitsthepossibilitytoselltheproperty.ConclusionsTherealestatemarketinLatviahasseenasharpincreaseinpricesandanequallysharpdropinprices,whichhavecausedmacroeconomicproblemsinLatvia.EconomicdevelopmentofLatviasignificantlyaffectstherealestatemarketandviceversa.Latviaseconomyshowscorrelationbetweenvariouseconomicalfactorsandthedevelopmentofrealestatemarket.ThisrelationshipcanbeclearlyseenwhencomparingrealestatemarketdatawithGDP,unemploymentrate,retailturnoverandmortgagelendingstatisticaldata.CurrentlyLatviaisexperiencingheavyeconomicalcrisis.Similarsituationisinrealestatemarketwhichhasbeendevelopingjointlywiththeeconomics.Latviaisanexampleofhowirrationalandtoorapidandunbalanceddevelopmentinpastcannegativelyaffectthedevelopmentofnationaleconomyandrealestatemarketinfuture.MortgageloansreceivedbyLatviasresidentsandspentforrealestatepurchaseswillhavetobepaidformanyyears.Buttherealproblemisthatthepricesmostlikelyarenotgoingtoreachpreviouslevels,whichmeansthatthecreditsarespentforpropertieswithartificiallyexaggeratedprices.Thefuturedevelopmentofrealestatemarkettoagreatextentwillbeaffectedbytheeconomical
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