世界经济千年史前两章(1)

1、世界经济千年史爱2004年第54期（总第4背70期）暗2004年9月28日荷兰格把罗宁根大学教授、世界经济摆千年史作者Maddiso佰n先生在中国经济研究中心万板众楼做了题为隘“爱世界经济千年史”叭的讲座，集中讨论了宏观经济捌计量历史研究的发展进程。下敖面是他报告的主要内容。扳宏观经济计量历史的发展经历颁了三个历史阶段：20世纪5叭0年代以来的隘“绊收入和财富国际研究协会时期霸”拌即IARIW时期（Inte傲rnational Ass八ociation for 啊Research in I扮ncome and Wea败lth）；1820195爱0年的库兹涅斯研究为代表的爸时期或搬“百Kuzne

2、tsian时期埃”安；15001820年商人蔼资本主义年代。50年代以来哎，宏观计量的主要目的是提供白可能的政策选择以改善国家的胺增长表现以及进行国家间差异啊分析。我们现在有50年代以氨来世界大部分国家的增长和收瓣入的官方估计。而在Kuzn安etsian时代，数量经济板史学家在测量世界经济增长和班量化增长因素方面取得了巨大败进展。虽然仍有一些领域需要敖改进，但对这个时期经济发展奥大致轮廓没有实质争议。相反暗，关于商人资本主义年代的世笆界经济的描述则存在很大分歧版，作为代表的是亚当、斯密的癌乐观看法和马尔萨斯的悲观论瓣。艾20世纪50年代以来的IA背RIW时代盎虽然50年代以来标准国民经般济核算

3、体系逐渐被采用，但是傲现存估计中仍有很多问题。使翱用苏联MPS体系（mate斑rial producti百on system）的国家澳增长被高估，需要做大量调整癌。非洲许多新生国家缺少必要疤的技术和资金进行国民收入增跋长核算，虽然国际组织工作在叭一定程度上弥补了这种不足，把但是非洲数据也需要做大量调班整。还有1995年以来一些吧高收入国家开始引入享乐指数扮（hedonic inde背x）来反映产品质量的改善，胺但是这么做并没有充分的根据疤并且会高估经济增长，比如美艾国用新的计量技术重新进行1肮9291950年国民经济隘核算，结果使国内生产总值(爱GDP)的增长率由2.6%扳增加到3.5%。最后

4、关于教岸育和知识的计量也还没有成熟白理论。案另一问题是购买力平价转换与颁国家间GDP水平比较。政府统计官员会提供真实价格计算版的总产出和总支出数据，经济案学家、新闻记者和官员们都将敖其作为经济增长和波动的主要胺指标。购买力平价方法与用真翱实价格计量的目的是一样的，败即修正价格差异使真实产出和办支出水平的有效比较成为可能把。以汇率转换的GDP与以购芭买力平价转换的GDP区别非埃常大。以购买力平价计算的发癌展中国家的GDP要大大高于伴以汇率转换的GDP，差距可霸能达到3-5倍。同时发达国埃家GDP以汇率计算则容易被靶高估。更为明显的一个例子是鞍1950年中国和印度以汇率埃计算人均GDP分别是$85

5、敖和$175（1990年价格耙），这两个数据低得让人难以八置信。那么为何汇率转换还如氨此经常的被使用呢？一方面出办于无知和支持自己观点的需要澳，另一方面许多发展国家不愿伴意接受购买力平价方法，因为柏担心这会不利于他们申请世行捌的优惠贷款和资助。这导致了碍经济间比较分析的明显错误，摆媒体经常称日本是世界第二大佰经济虽然其GDP还不到中国暗的60，英国的政客们也始安终相信英国的经济规模比中国拌大。扮18201950年的Ku哀znetsian时代吧Simon Kuznets稗教授对现代经济增长的研究成把果，使可以数量化研究的时间案界限从20世纪50年代推进暗到19世纪20年代。关于这半段时期我们现有

6、的几个结论是俺：加速的经济增长始于182伴0年而非Kuznets认为版的1760年；经济学家对西安欧各国研究表明西欧的崛起是皑同时而非交错发生的；这段时按期快速发展加大了西方与其他氨国家的差距；Kuznets阿研究推翻了Kondrati翱eff长期循环的说法和Sc艾humpeter循环发展论岸点。事实上1820年以来的盎技术变革不是浪潮式的而是连白续推进的，目前有足够证据把氨18202001这段时间哀划分为5个不同的发展阶段。碍其中19501973年是疤一个无可比拟的繁荣的黄金时奥代，这个时期世界GDP年均皑增长5，世界贸易年均增长奥8，人均收入有明显趋同趋稗势，大部分地区经济增长都快矮于美国

7、。1973年以后，世搬界经济增长明显下降，各地区鞍的差异加大，但是基于世界的斑角度，最近这个阶段仍然是增奥长表现名列第二的阶段。区分隘领导国家和跟随国家对于研究翱技术的动态传播和赶超过程是班非常重要的，靶“白领导哀”扒国家指那些处于技术前沿的国阿家，而熬“疤跟随爱”扮国家指劳动生产率较低的国家搬。1500年以来共有4个领傲导国家，16世纪的意大利，扳16世纪至拿破仑战争时期的拔荷兰，此后的英国和1890搬年后的美国。颁对1820年以来英国、美国伴和日本的增长分析，最早考虑拌的是劳动力投入和生产率，战昂后资本成了一个非常重要的增拔长因素，之后又有观点将盎“半人力资本爱”稗看作生产要素。Denis

8、o氨n扩展增长分析方法指出18八20年以来英国、美国和日本搬经济增长表现出以下一些显著碍特点：物质资本大量增长，非盎居住建筑和机器设备增加非常爱明显，伴随在机器设备中加速捌的技术进步。教育水平大大提阿高，英国提高了8倍，美国和盎日本11倍。人均劳动投入在袄英国和日本下降了40，在肮美国下降了20。对外贸易袄占GDP的比重在英国由3搬增至25，日本0.2至白13，美国2至10。哀自然资源的缺乏对增长并不构拌成限制，人均土地在美国下降吧了14倍，英国和日本下降了奥4倍。能源的投入增长比较温扳和，美国人均增长了3倍，英叭国6倍，日本8倍。班15001820年的商人爱资本主义年代败关于商人资本主义年代

9、（15拔001820）经济表现，唉在18世纪末就已经存在两种叭不同的解释。亚当、斯密乐观皑地认为，美洲大陆和新航线的把发现给大型经济，国际贸易和唉专业化的发展创造了新的机会懊，虽然因为对贸易的共同限制板，这些机会不能被充分利用。扮马尔萨斯则悲观论则认为，经百济表现取决于人口增长和固定半的土地供给间的平衡，技术进扳步、资本形成和国际贸易专业安化的因素被忽略，因此只有通百过灾难（战争、饥荒、疾病）唉才能实现平衡。这两种观点对翱立一直存在。此外悲观的看法扳有了一些其他的支持，LeR岸oy Ladurie认为法袄国13001720年的经跋济是停滞的，真实工资论者则霸更加悲观他们有人认为英国1斑820年

10、的生活水平比150扳0年下降了44等等。啊关于15001820不同敖国家和地区的经济表现，Ku巴znets在1965年提出叭了关于西欧人口率和人均GD芭P增长的一个非常有影响的假懊说，认为西欧发达国家150凹01750年可能的（并且唉或许是最大的）长期人均产出稗年均增长率为0.2%。对上扮述假说验证表明，西欧150熬01820年人均年增长率巴为0.14，显著小于Ku跋znets估计，美洲国家整笆体而言人均GDP增长快于西俺欧，非洲南部和北部的发展差邦异比较明显，亚洲国家整体而稗言收入水平是停滞的，日本的隘人均表现要好于中国和印度，拔但是非常明显中国这个时期有办着广泛的增长，它在人口大量皑增长的

11、情况下生活水平并没有扮下降并且GDP的增长与西欧昂一样显著。隘在分析商人资本主义时代的增唉长时，增长分析的方法就不再耙适用了。研究表明，人均劳动唉投入、资本和人力资本、知识败在这个时期都有增加，但是非疤常明显的是全球化在这个时期案起到了比以往更加重要的作用巴，相对来说全球化在这段时期扒的作用比在20世纪还要重要盎。西方造船业和航海的巨大发蔼展，使世界贸易在1500奥1820年增长了20倍。欧跋洲国家还从殖民地，非洲奴隶暗贸易中获取了很多利益。美洲办国家则经历了生态、技术和人拌口的转型。引进新的农作物提搬高了粮食的产量；马和其他牲版畜的引入则改善了交通条件；爱欧洲各种技术的引入也有助于吧经济的发

12、展；欧洲疾病使2/岸3土著居民死亡，加上欧洲人伴和非洲奴隶大量涌入，改变了氨美洲的人口结构。非洲和亚洲败国家也引入了美洲农作物。此肮外还存在大陆间的技术传递，哀欧洲向美洲输出武器、工具、俺车辆、船和造船技术、印刷、般文字、教育和政治经济机构，芭欧洲采矿技术在美洲应用生产捌出大量金银供欧洲与亚洲进行白贸易，同时期欧洲从亚洲引入坝了纺织和陶瓷技术。案与亚当斯密和马尔萨斯关于商巴人资本主义的对立解释相对应拔，关于现代化的根源有非常不耙同的看法。有一个学派认为现扒代经济增长源于工业革命，而拌之前则是几个世纪的马尔萨斯暗停滞。很多人支持这个观点，耙但是这些观点在根本上是错误捌的。事实上向现代资本主义过凹

13、渡经历了长时间的准备。首先颁是教育和知识的传播由于印刷氨术的发明和推广而变革；其次艾造船业和航海业到1820年佰也发生了变革，船只的设计、半装备和天文知识都大大改善，摆有了精确的航海指导等等。这癌些进展都是科研努力的结果。岸无疑，欧洲的这些发展是19捌和20世纪经济更快发展的前版奏，欧洲的现代化不是一蹴而邦就的。（任丽达、卢锋整理） 疤-伴-凹-吧-靶-稗-矮 发贴时间： 2004-1俺0-17 2:28:56 凹 218.31.*.* 柏 摆 errantking艾 等级：贫农财产：经验：魅力： 注册：2003-9-7 文章：55 鉴定：保密 啊-爱-柏-靶-柏-霸-案- 背Measurin

14、g and胺 Interpreting氨 World Econom澳ic Performanc笆e 1500-2001*半Angus Maddiso阿n笆This is a sui熬table occasio澳n for surveyi傲ng the progre把ss achieved, 岸in the past 6稗0 years, in q拔uantifying wo俺rld economic 坝development, 扒and analysing把 the causal i敖nfluences whi跋ch determine 爸the pace and 佰pattern of gr

15、敖owth. This wa哀s a major obj般ective of the耙 founding fat哀hers of the I班nternational 哀Association f挨or Research i吧n Income and 背Wealth (IARIW邦). The initia熬tive for crea俺ting an assoc袄iation includ盎ing both acad斑emics and off巴icial statist傲icians came f瓣rom Simon Kuz拌nets (1901-85鞍), the pionee耙r of

16、quantita盎tive economic败 history. Mil氨ton Gilbert (摆1909-79) and 背Richard Stone搬 (1913-1991) 挨were strategi袄c partners wi搬th enormous i蔼nternational 瓣leverage in c邦reating and d胺iffusing stan氨dard procedur扮es for constr笆uction of com挨parable natio澳nal accounts 暗by official s霸tatistical of埃fices.败This

17、 paper an拌alyses the de扮velopment of 癌macro-measure邦ment in three霸 epochs:岸a) for the IA百RIW epoch, ba靶ck to 1950, t皑he main purpo翱se has been t百o illuminate 靶policy option罢s to improve 碍growth perfor柏mance at the 案national leve办l and to anal挨yse inter-cou凹ntry divergen安ce in real in捌come levels t岸o

18、 help devise按 policies for瓣 catch-up. We跋 now have off坝icial estimat鞍es of growth 摆and levels fo啊r the vast bu拌lk of the wor般ld economy fr艾om 1950 onwar巴ds.芭b) For the Ku懊znetsian epoc邦h of “modern 哀economic grow佰th” back to 1隘820, quantita扳tive economic阿 historians h靶ave made grea隘t progress in碍 me

19、asuring wo背rld economic 艾growth and in敖 quantifying 凹the forces de鞍termining per半formance. The埃re is scope f伴or further re扒search to fil摆l gaps and cr笆osscheck exis澳ting estimate癌s, but the broad contours 捌of developmen氨t in this per摆iod are not u罢nder serious 澳challenge.颁c) for the “m哀erchant capit

20、巴alist” epoch,耙 1500-1820, t办here are shar阿ply divergent熬 interpretati傲ons about wor佰ld, and parti蔼cularly Europ斑ean performan扳ce. The dicho俺tomy between 笆positive and 伴negative asse癌ssments start扒ed with Adam 搬Smith and Mal埃thus at the e鞍nd of the 18t半h century. In隘 my view, the瓣 evidence for阿 the

21、Malthusi傲an view is sh班oddy.斑Historians us哀ually start a胺t the beginni挨ng of their c吧hronology. Qu凹antitative ec盎onomic histor艾ians have to 暗work backward拜s from the pr蔼esent, procee拌ding from wha唉t is known an瓣d accepted, t唉o earlier epo啊chs where evi艾dence is weak瓣er and there 佰is greater re阿lianc

22、e on clu伴es and conjec霸ture. 般*This is the 芭first Ruggles班 Lecture, del颁ivered at the澳 28th IARIW G唉eneral Confer拔ence, 敖Cork把, 傲Ireland August 2004I唉(i) Standardi啊sed Estimates案 of GDP Growt胺h for 1950 on盎wards昂The standardi板sed accounts 邦provide a coh奥erent macroec胺onomic framew澳ork covering 胺the

23、whole eco唉nomy, crossch耙ecked in thre办e ways. From 拔the income si拔de, they are 蔼the total of 耙wages, rents 伴and profits. 版On the demand稗 side, they a搬re the sum of吧 final expend癌itures by con把sumers, inves柏tors and gove安rnment. From 艾the productio邦n side, the s啊um of value a扮dded in diffe败rent secto

24、rs-昂agriculture, 芭industry and 拌services, net邦 of duplicati巴on.碍Milton Gilber盎t had been re熬sponsible for敖 the official爱 巴US佰 accounts dur澳ing the war a捌nd from 1950 按to 1961 was h般ead of statis办tics and nati袄onal accounts in OEEC. The办 Marshall Pla袄n required cr翱iteria for ai奥d allocation,拔 and NAT

25、O nee埃ded them for 办its burden-sh白aring exercis按es. Gilbert m拜et these requ板irements by p懊ushing offici翱al statistica靶l offices of 八the 16 OEEC m暗ember countri捌es to adopt t坝he standardis袄ed system of 哀accounts desi办gned by Richa岸rd Stone. 笆Stone set up 笆a programme i瓣n 翱Cambridge叭 to train off暗icia

26、l Europea扳n statisticia版ns to impleme皑nt the standa班rdised system安. A set of na班tional handbo澳oks was prepa柏red to explai绊n the problem昂s of adjustme瓣nt to the sta捌ndardised sys巴tem, and a fi颁rst comparati按ve set of acc叭ounts for the靶 16 countries般 for 1938 and版 1947-52 was 皑published by 艾OEEC in 19

27、54,鞍 with extensi笆ve notes expl哀aining the ad霸justments whi袄ch had been m艾ade to achiev奥e comparabili懊ty.胺In 1953, Ston癌e became chai爱rman of a Uni吧ted Nations c芭ommission whi办ch establishe捌d a system of拔 accounts for按 worldwide ap扒plication. Th按e UN could no班t exert as mu皑ch leverage o澳n its member

28、 巴countries to 扳conform as wa疤s possible in爱 OEEC. The co蔼mmunist count肮ries used the熬 Soviet SMS (肮system of mat皑erial account百s) which had 蔼a narrower de肮finition of p板roductive act柏ivity (exclud敖ing many serv啊ice activitie鞍s), involved 拜serious doubl啊e counting (m巴easuring gros背s output with按out

29、deducting岸 inter-sector岸 transfers of板 inputs) and 半exaggerated e熬conomic growt吧h. The price 袄system and ta案x-structures 唉were differen癌t from those 般in capitalist碍 countries, a哀nd measuremen胺t conventions颁 gave incenti邦ves to exagge搬rate quality 吧change when n捌ew products w岸ere introduce敖d. Abram B

30、erg懊son (1914-200稗3) pioneered 肮procedures fo扮r re-estimati颁on of Soviet 唉GDP on a basi坝s correspondi斑ng approximat昂ely to Wester伴n conceptions半 in coverage,把 with elimina霸tion of doubl癌e-counting, a袄nd repricing 艾on an “adjust瓣ed factor cos搬t” basis with颁 imputation f跋or capital co澳sts which wer艾e

31、not conside拌red in Soviet把 accounting. 佰These correct八ive procedure懊s were applie坝d to Soviet s邦tatistics by 唉a team of CIA伴 Sovietologis扒ts in 靶Washington拌. In 熬New York罢, Thad Alton and his colle板agues did the隘 same for 凹Bulgaria背, 败Czechoslovaki氨a啊, 澳East Germany拌, 耙Poland百, 扒Romania办 and 版Yugosl

32、avia奥. This work w绊as financed f板or intelligen按ce purposes, 搬but was publi懊cly available肮 in annual re败ports to the 阿US Congress (奥see Maddison 把1998b).案In the 1990s 捌most of these败 countries ad奥opted the sta佰ndardised SNA斑 system in pr拜inciple, but 矮implementatio傲n was complic懊ated by the m碍assive

33、change胺 in ownership拌, in the leve搬l and structu拔re of prices,艾 allocation o爱f resources b拌etween consum百ption and inv翱estment, and 唉statistical r班eporting proc芭edures. It wi埃ll take some years before 疤these problem耙s can be full颁y resolved. T伴he IMF contin安ues to use ex班aggerated mea稗sures of GDP 百

34、growth for th吧ese countries氨. As a result芭, it shows a 八growth in wor柏ld GDP averag澳ing 3.9 perce摆nt a year for柏 1970-200, co扳mpared with m唉y estimate of艾 3.3 percent.哀 For 氨China敖 it shows gro背wth averaging八 8.5 per cent肮 a year, wher袄eas my adjust半ed measure sh颁ows a growth 斑rate of 6.5 p哎er cent

35、(see 吧Maddison, 200瓣3, p. 231).皑Another area 哀of weakness i哀s 澳Africa扮, where there败 was and still is a great 稗shortage of s坝kills and mon肮ey for such w笆ork in a larg吧e number of newly created 胺countries. Th跋e gap in esti扳mates of GDP 般growth was fi皑lled in subst稗antial degree扳 by the OECD 熬Developm

36、ent C耙entre which c奥ompiled annua把l estimates o袄f real GDP gr拌owth 1950-90 袄for 51 Africa笆n countries. 疤The Centre be阿nefited from 肮the expertise拜 of Derek Bla岸des, who had 白been chief st哎atistician in氨 搬Malawi熬 for eight ye白ars, and by D傲avid Roberts 隘who had simil矮ar experience哀 in 哀Gambia疤. 袄A th

37、ird probl啊em in the ass俺essment of GD稗P growth perf柏ormance in th稗e higher inco坝me countries derives from 八recent change靶s in measurem坝ent conventio敖ns from 1995 稗onwards, invo捌lving adoptio罢n of hedonic 办indexes to ad伴just for assu跋med changes i敖n quality of 拌product, use 隘of chain indi稗ces, and tr

38、ea澳tment of cons翱umer software矮 as investmen败t. 般Hedonic indic爱es are perfec芭tly respectab坝le in small d碍oses, but one皑 can be skept扒ical about th鞍e widespread 拜assumption th扒at quality ch叭anges have be佰en so large a懊nd monotonica昂lly positive.扮 In the 绊USA版, where the s安witch to hedo凹nics was most碍

39、 significant,罢 their net im颁pact was to r俺aise the meas昂ured rate of 俺growth to a s白omewhat great鞍er degree tha暗n in Western 盎Europe and 跋Japan鞍. 伴US懊 official est哎imates go bac佰k to 1929, an八d the changes伴 in measureme稗nt technique 俺had their big凹gest impact f罢or 1929-50, r爱aising the GD胺P growth r

40、ate般 for that per绊iod from 2.6 敖percent a yea捌r to 3.5. The绊re was no cou俺nterpart to t白his long retr艾ospective rea办djustment in 肮other countri奥es, and I hav办e continued t拔o use the ear百lier 熬US傲 official mea翱sure for 1929澳-50 (for reas艾ons explained敖 in Maddison,挨 2001, p. 138昂, and Maddiso澳n, 2003

41、, pp.7皑9-80). More t伴han 40 years 胺ago, Milton G蔼ilbert warned坝 that such ad啊justments cou碍ld open Pando罢ras box: “In跋 the end, the把y would make 奥it impossible半 to construct白 measures of 坝output and pr唉ice changes t霸hat are usefu袄l to the stud白y of economic坝 growth” (Gil笆bert, 1961, p凹. 287). The d笆

42、anger which a绊rises from an啊 overdose of 罢hedonics is d八iscussed in A斑ppendix 3.阿Ed Denison (1唉915-1992) exp板ressed opposi靶tion to chang八es in nationa皑l accounting 稗which treat a艾ccretions of 般knowledge as 百investment. H奥e considered 柏this a “miscl坝assification”傲 which made “霸growth analys办is chaoti

43、c” (伴see 阿Denison啊, 1989, p. 10吧). A major ju笆stification f懊or his compla把int was that 坝his growth ac矮counts includ班ed “human cap稗ital”, i.e. i背ncrements in 凹the quality o巴f the labour 拜force due to 傲increases in the level of 拌education.摆In fact, the 艾only form of 皑knowledge whi背ch is now tre爸ated a

44、s inves昂tment is comp扮uter software板. It is odd t把o treat this 坝rapidly depre巴ciating knowl伴edge as inves把tment, whilst肮 ignoring the捌 more durable半 influence of碍 books and ed稗ucation.(ii) Purchasi肮ng Power Conv岸erters for Cr懊oss-country C笆omparison of 笆GDP Levels 般Once standard背ised accounts懊 of re

45、al GDP 爸growth in nat版ional currenc罢ies had been 奥established f败or all OEEC c安ountries, the安 next step to懊 facilitate i安nter-country 岸comparison an跋d multi-count斑ry aggregatio隘n was the dev蔼elopment of p靶urchasing pow阿er parity con霸verters (PPPs半) to measure 拌real GDP leve凹ls, rather th哀an relying o

46、n唉 exchange rat熬e comparison.拌 The first OE百EC study, co-傲authored by M跋ilton Gilbert奥 and Irving K办ravis (1916-9板2). appeared 吧in 1954, a se靶cond in 1958.巴 They compare凹d real expend版iture levels 袄in 8 OEEC cou啊ntries. A thi斑rd volume by 捌Paige and Bom吧bach (1959) c般ompared real 巴output levels皑 in

47、the UK板 and 败USA凹. Kravis and 把his colleague巴s, Alan Hesto唉n and Robert 凹Summers impro败ved the metho奥dology of PPP八 estimation i稗n their ICP p八roject at the暗 爸University氨 of 氨Pennsylvania佰 from 1968 on挨wards.佰The OEEC stud癌ies were bina罢ry comparison颁s between pai奥rs of countri扮es. The three阿 option

48、s were吧 i) a Paasche挨 PPP, with “o邦wn-country” q氨uantity weigh扳ts; ii) a Las般peyres PPP wi百th the quanti隘ty weights of肮 the numerair绊e country-the澳 United State矮s; iii) a com爸promise geome爱tric (Fisher)败 average of t般he first two 瓣measures. The芭 correspondin唉g measures of傲 real expendi澳ture were: i)

49、懊 Laspeyres co隘mparisons of 凹GDP levels ba岸sed on the pr摆ices (unit va拔lues) of the 胺numeraire cou敖ntry; ii) Paa哀sche level co耙mparisons bas矮ed on “own-co拔untry疤”拌 prices (unit values); iii绊) a Fisher ge澳ometric avera八ge of the two岸 measures. Bi案nary comparis爸ons, e.g. Ger按many/USA and 碍UK/USA, coul

50、d翱 then be link叭ed with the 懊USA巴 as the star 啊country. Such芭 star compari败sons could pr捌ovide a proxy疤 Germany/UK c澳omparison, bu拔t it was not 袄“transitive” 埃(i.e. the res瓣ult would not霸 be identical凹 to that deri皑ved from a direct Germany/板UK comparison疤). This was n蔼ot a great dr般awback for OE耙EC

51、 countries 癌where the int佰er-country de拜viation in pe胺rformance lev罢els was not t半oo wide. But 耙Kravis, Hesto板n and Summers阿 were engaged扳 in compariso氨ns over a muc岸h wider range瓣 of per capit唉a income. The爸y therefore a岸dopted the Ge氨ary-Khamis me耙thod, invente佰d by Roy Gear绊y (1896-1983)鞍 and Sal

52、em Kh罢amis, which m耙ultilateralis败ed the result按s, provided t癌ransitivity a芭nd other desi拌rable propert艾ies. They use白d it in conju哎nction with t熬he commodity 霸product dummy傲 method (CPD)吧, invented by俺 Robert Summe胺rs, for filli罢ng holes in t敖he basic data氨set. Their ma吧sterpiece was霸 their third 俺

53、study, the 19啊82 volume Wor斑ld Product an爱d Income, whi拜ch contained 搬estimates for 34 countries艾 (in Africa, 八the 把Americas扒, Asia and 扒Europe阿) in 1975 pri耙ces and inter绊national Gear埃y-Khamis doll办ars. These co阿untries accou矮nted for 64 p矮er cent of wo叭rld GDP in 20按01.安Table 1 Natur搬e of PPP Con

54、v背erters to Est埃imate GDP Lev安els in the Be摆nchmark Year 1990矮(billion 1990笆 Geary-Khamis唉 dollars and 鞍number of cou拌ntries)懊Europe & Lati版n Asia 佰Africa按 World稗W. Offshoots 罢America白 哎ICP 15,273 (2伴8) 2,131 (18)败 8,017 (24) 0拔 (0) 25,421 (爱70)懊PWT 59 (3) 71半 (14) 524 (16矮) 891 (51) 1,翱516 (84)暗Pro

55、xies 16 (1耙0) 38 (15) 87罢 (17) 14 (6) 八155 (48)伴Total 15,349 绊(41) 2,240 (4隘7) 8,628 (57)啊 905 (57) 27,摆122(202)叭Source: Maddi背son (2003), p奥. 230拜The UN Statis败tical Office 碍extended the 半ICP work and 板had covered 8斑4 countries b熬y 1985. UNSO 懊then dropped 瓣this endeavou哀r, though som胺e of the regi

56、艾onal UN bodie凹s continued w疤ith it. The O熬ECD recommenc爱ed its compar蔼isons on a re稗gular basis i鞍n 1982. Its l岸atest work co白vered the 28 岸OECD countrie八s and 20 othe伴rs (in Easter巴n Europe, the按 15 successor傲 states of th暗e 芭USSR疤, and 熬Mongolia班). Alan Hesto扮n and Robert 颁Summers produ罢ce short-

57、hand爱 estimates of搬 PPPs and rea按l income leve碍ls for countr办ies for which拌 full-scale I隘CP type measu佰res are not a澳vailable. As 艾a result, we 斑now have reas班onably accept般able PPP adju柏sted measures败 available fo坝r over 99 per搬cent of world邦 GDP,坝There were th扮ree Eurostat 阿estimates (fo耙r 1980, 1

58、985 胺and 1993) of 吧PPPs for 22 A佰frican countr叭ies, but the 癌results were 搬erratic, and 坝I preferred t矮o use the mor袄e comprehensi败ve and plausi耙ble results o吧f the Penn Wo捌rld Tables (s瓣ee Summers an俺d Heston, Oct俺ober 2002). T巴able 1 summar奥ises the natu懊re of the PPP案 estimates I 皑used to creat澳e

59、 my 1990 ben隘chmark estima把tes of world 矮GDP.爸Table 2 World疤s 10 Largest吧 Countries: C斑omparative Ra拜nking, 1950 &耙 2001, at con袄stant蔼1990 prices, 半using 1990 Ge扮ary-Khamis PP埃P converters 盎and 1990 exch阿ange rates瓣1950 2001 195班0 2001挨GDP $billion,拜 with 1990 PP半P conversion 芭$billion, wit爱h 1990

60、exchan挨ge rate笆USA搬 1,456 7,966 芭1,456 7,966坝China霸 240 4,570 47办 886爸Japan 161 2,6版25 206 3,358岸India捌 222 2,003 62爱 558碍Germany班 265 1,537 33巴7 1,951矮France扒 221 1,258 26把1 1,491绊UK绊 348 1,202 36绊3 1,253癌Italy唉 165 1,101 19摆1 1,272背Brazil版 89 990 58 63拜8捌Russia扳 315 791 154 百388皑GDP per head 碍1990