专利和能源转型：清洁能源技术创新的全球趋势(英)-IEA

Patentsandthe

energytransition

Globaltrendsincleanenergytechnologyinnovation

April2021

2

Foreword

Theenergytransitionneededtomitigateclimatechangepresentschallengesofunparalleled

scaleandcomplexity.Manyofthetechnologiesneededtocutgreenhousegasemissionsare

notyetfullymature,whilstthetimewindowavailableforbringingthemtomarketisclosing

rapidly.Inthiscontext,reliableintelligenceontrendsinlow-carbonenergy(LCE)innovation

iscrucialforsupportingsoundbusinessandpolicydecisions.

AsthepatentofficeforEurope,theEPOisideallypositionedtofirstdetectandanalysesuch

trends.Becausepatentapplicationsaretypicallyfiledlongbeforeproductsappearonthe

market,theyprovideearlyinformationonforthcomingtechnologies.Thankstoourunique

accesstotheworld'slargestcollectionofpatentandnon-patentliterature,theEPOisableto

exploitthatinformationtoproducecutting-edgebusinessintelligence.

Ourpatentclassificationschemeforclimatechangemitigationandadaptationtechnologiesis

testamenttoourcommitmenttofulfilthatrole.Withmillionsofpatentdocumentsclassified

acrossawidevarietyofclimatechangemitigationtechnologies,ithasbecomeawidely-used

standardformonitoringprogressingreentechnologiesacrosstheworld.

OurpartnershipwiththeInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)makesitpossibletofurther

exploittheseresources.BycombiningtheEPO’sadvancedpatentknowledgewiththeIEA’s

unparalleledtechnicalandeconomicexpertiseinenergy,weaimtosupportdecision-making

inthepublicandprivatesectorswiththebestpossibleinformationontechnologytrendsin

thisfield.

Ournewjointstudyembracesthebroadlandscapeoflow-carbonenergytechnologies.

ItreliesforthatpurposeontheEPO’sdedicatedpatentclassificationschemeforsuch

technologies,alongwithnewpatentdataonfossilfueltechnologiesthathavebeen

developedasabenchmarkforthisstudy.

Theresultsrevealencouragingtrendsandinterestingenergytransitionpatternsacross

countriesandindustrysectors.However,ourreportalsohighlightstheneedtofurther

accelerateinnovationforthetechnologies–somestillemerging–thatarepoisedtoplayan

instrumentalroleintheenergytransitionofthenext2-3decades.Bygivingdecision-makers

unparalleleddataandanalysesaboutinnovativesolutionsinlow-carbonenergy,Iam

confidentthatthisreportwillhelptoguidethemindrivingthevitalenergytransition.

AntónioCampinos

President,EuropeanPatentOffice

3

Foreword

InMarchofthisyeartopinternationalenergyandclimateleaderstookpartintheIEA-COP26NetZeroSummit,akeymilestoneinacceleratinginternationalcollaborationtowardcleanenergytransitions.

Manyofthegovernmentspresent,whorepresentedmorethan80%ofglobalGDPandthemajorityofglobalenergyuseandgreenhousegasemissions,highlightedtheurgentneedtoincreasethepaceandscaleofadoptinglow-carbontechnologies,andemphasisedthatsignificantlygreaterprivateandpublicinvestmentisneededtoquicklyharnesscommercially-availabletechnologies,andtoidentifyanddevelopbreakthroughtechnologies.

Thisreportexaminesthelandscapeoflow-carbonenergytechnologiesandcoversthepast,presentandfutureofcleanenergyinnovation.Recentdevelopmentsprovidewelcomegroundsforoptimism.Afteraslumpinpatentingactivityduringthelastdecade,wehavenowseenthreeyearsofgrowthinlow-carbonenergy(LCE)patentinginmanykeyemergingandcross-cuttingtechnologies.

Toprovidecontexttothetrendsandpatternsinlow-carbonenergyinnovation,thereportusesnewapproachestoidentifypatentsrelatedtofossilfueltechnologies.TheresultsshowfossilfuelpatentsdecliningasLCEpatentsgrow.Itisclearthattoreachoursharedobjectiveofnetzeroemissions,furthereffortsareurgentlyrequiredtotakethisresurgenceofcleanenergyinnovationtoanewandtransformationallevel.Policy-makerscandrawonthisreporttoidentifyactionsthatwillhelpbringnewtechnologiestomarketsandconsumersallovertheworld.

Thereport’sfindingsaretheresultofagrowingpartnershipbetweentheIEAandtheEuropeanPatentOffice(EPO)thatwillhelpustrackprogressgoingforward.Itisthesecondoutputfollowingourfirstcollaborationwhichfocusedontheimportantareaofenergystorage.

Dr.FatihBirol

ExecutiveDirector,InternationalEnergyAgency

4

Contents

Forewords2

Listoftablesandfigures

6

Listofabbreviations

8

Executivesummary9

1.

Introduction

21

1.1

Aimofthestudy

23

1.2

Structureofthereport

24

2.

Technologyroadmaptoadecarbonisedeconomy

25

2.1

Beyondtheheadlinetrend:capturingthediversedynamicsofenergyinnovationinthedata

26

2.2

Therisingimportanceofend-useandenablingtechnologiesforcleanenergy

29

2.3

End-useandenablingtechnologiesareacceleratingnewtypesofinnovation

30

3.

Maintechnologytrends

34

3.1

Trendsinenergysupplytechnologies

35

3.2

Trendsinend-usetechnologies

36

3.3

Trendsinenablingtechnologies

37

4.

ProfileofapplicantsinLCEtechnologies

43

4.1

Universitiesandpublicresearchorganisations

44

4.2

TopapplicantsinLCEtechnologies

49

5.

Geographicaldistributionoflow-carbonenergyinnovation

54

5.1.

Globalinnovationcentres

55

5.1.1

FocusonEurope

60

5

Annex

64

Annex1CartographyofLCEtechnologies

65

Annex2Cartographyoffossilfueltechnologies

66

Annex3Patentmetrics67

Annex4Clusteranalysis68

References69

6

Backtocontents

Listoftablesandfigures

Tables

Table2.1Overviewofthecartographyandhowitmapstokeytechnologygaps27

Table3.1DistributionofglobalIPFsinPVtechnologybetweentheworldmainregions,

2010-201937

Table3.2ShareofIPFsinenablingtechnologiesoverlappingwithotherfields,

2010-201940

Table3.3DistributionofglobalIPFsinhydrogenbetweentheworldmainregions,

2010-201942

Table4.1Top15universitiesandPROsinLCEtechnologies,2000-201946

Table4.2Topglobalclustersinenablingtechnologies,2000-201848

Table4.3LCEtechnologyprofilesoftop15applicants,2000-201950

Table5.1Specialisation(RTA)ofglobalinnovationcentresbyLCEtechnologyfields,

2010-201957

Table5.2Specialisation(RTA)oftop10EPCcountriesbyLCEtechnologyfields,

2010-201961

Figures

FigureE1GlobalgrowthofIPFsinlow-carbonenergytechnologiesversusall

technologies,2000-2019(base100in2000)10

FigureE2GlobalgrowthofIPFsincleanenergysupply,enablingand

end-usetechnologies,2000-201911

FigureE3OverlapsofpatentingactivityinLCEenablingtechnologieswithenergy

supplyandend-usetechnologiesinvarioussectors,2000-201912

FigureE4GlobalgrowthofIPFsinelectricvehiclesversusotherLCEtechnologiesfor

roadtransportation,2000-201913

FigureE5Top15applicantsinLCEtechnologies,2000-201914

FigureE6EmergingtechnologiesinPVcellsandmountings,2015-201915

FigureE7ShareofIPFsinfuelcellsandlow-carbonhydrogenproduction,2010-201916

FigureE8ShareofIPFsoriginatingfromuniversitiesandPROsinLCEtechnologyfields,

2000-201917

FigureE9Mainrevealedtechnologyadvantagesofglobalinnovationcentres18

FigureE10Top10fieldsforshareofIPFsstemmingfrominternationalcollaboration(with

top5pairsofcollaboratingcountrieshighlightedineachfield),2000-201919

Figure1.1GlobalenergysectorCO2emissionsreductionsbycurrenttechnology

readinesscategoryintheIEASustainableDevelopmentScenariorelative

totheStatedPoliciesScenario22

Figure2.1GlobalgrowthofIPFsinlow-carbonenergytechnologiesversusall

technologies,2000-201926

Figure2.2HistoricalandprojectedCO2emissionsfromexistingenergyinfrastructure

andemissionspathwaysinIEAclimatechangemitigationscenarios28

Figure2.3GlobalgrowthofIPFsinLCEsupply,enablingandend-usetechnologies,

2000-201929

Figure2.4Low-carbontechnologiesbyunitsizeandaverageannualinstallationsin

theSustainableDevelopmentScenario31

Figure2.5Capitalcostsforselectedenergytechnologiesin2040relativeto201932

Figure3.1GrowthofIPFsinenergysupplytechnologies,2000-201935

Figure3.2IPFsinorganicPVcellsversusothertypesofPVcells,2010-201936

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7

Figure3.3Innovationtrendsinmountingandtracking37

Figure3.4GrowthofIPFsinend-usetechnologies,2000-201938

Figure3.5GrowthofIPFsinenablingtechnologies,2000-201939

Figure3.6IPFsinhydrogen-relatedtechnologies,2000-201941

Figure4.1EstimatedtotalpublicenergyR&D,includingdemonstrationbudgetfor

IEAmembergovernments,1974-201944

Figure4.2ShareofIPFsoriginatingfromuniversitiesandPROsinLCEtechnologyfields,

2000-201945

Figure4.3GeographicaloriginsofIPFsrelatedtoLCEtechnologies,2000-201847

Figure4.4Top15applicantsinLCEtechnologies,2000-201949

Figure4.5GlobalgrowthofIPFsinelectricvehiclesversusotherLCEtechnologiesfor

roadtransportation,2000-201952

Figure4.6Top10applicantsinLCEroadtransporttechnologies,2000-201953

Figure5.1GrowthofIPFsinLCEtechnologiesbyglobalinnovationcentres,2000-201955

Figure5.2Long-termtrendofpatentinginfossilfuelstechnologies,1945-201958

Figure5.3GrowthofIPFsinfossilfuelversusLCEsupplytechnologiesbyglobal

innovationcentres,2000-201959

Figure5.4GrowthofIPFsinLCEtechnologiesinEuropeancountries,2000-201960

Figure5.5ShareofIPFsinleadinginnovationcentresthatareco-inventedwithother

countries,2000-201962

Figure5.6Top10fieldsforshareofIPFsstemmingfrominternationalcollaboration(with

top5pairsofcollaboratingcountrieshighlightedineachfield),2000-201963

8

Backtocontents

Listofabbreviations

Countrycodes

BOS

CCUS

CO

2

CSP

EPC

EPO

EV

GHG

ICT

IEA

IPF

LCE

LED

Li-ion

OCGTPATSTAT

PEM

PRO

PV

R&D

RTA

SDS

SMR

TRL

Y02

Balance-of-system

Carboncapture,utilisationandstorage

Carbondioxide

Concentratingsolarpower

EuropeanPatentConvention

EuropeanPatentOffice

Electricvehicles

Greenhousegas

Informationandcommunicationstechnology

InternationalEnergyAgency

Internationalpatentfamilies

Low-carbonenergy

Light-emittingdiode

Lithium-ion

Open-cyclegasturbine

EPO'sworldwidepatentstatisticaldatabase

Polymerelectrolytemembrane

Publicresearchorganisations

Photovoltaics

Researchanddevelopment

Revealedtechnologicaladvantage

Sustainabledevelopmentscenario

Smallmodularreactor

Technologyreadinesslevel

EPO'sclassificationschemeforclimatemitigation

technologies(seeBox1)

AT

BE

CA

CH

CN

DE

DK

ES

FR

IL

IN

IT

JP

KR

NL

RU

SE

UK

US

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Switzerland

People'sRepublicofChinaGermany

Denmark

Spain

France

Israel*

India

Italy

Japan

RepublicofKorea

Netherlands

Russia

Sweden

UnitedKingdomUnitedStatesofAmerica

*ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.

9

Backtocontents

Executivesummary

Energyinnovationisaninescapableconditionofclimatechangemitigation,occurringagainstabackdropofrisingpolicyambitionandachangingtechnologylandscape

Overthelastyear,manyoftheplanet'slargesteconomiesandcompanieshavecommittedtoeliminatingtheircontributiontogreenhousegasemissionsbythemiddleofthiscentury,orsoonthereafter.Thishasfocusedattentiononaplannednear-totaltransformationoftheenergysysteminaslittleasthreedecades.

Aimedatdecision-makersinboththeprivateandpublicsectors,thisreportisauniquesourceofintelligenceontheinnovationtrendsacrosstheenergysystem,andLCEtechnologiesinparticular.DrawingontheEPO'sdedicatedschemeforpatentinformationonclimatechangemitigation,thedatapresentedinthereportshowsthelatesttrendsinhigh-valueinventionsforwhichpatentshavebeenfiledinmorethanoneofficebycountinginternationalpatentfamilies(IPFs1).HighlightingtheLCEfieldsthataregatheringmomentumandthecrossfertilisationtakingplaceprovidesaguideforpolicyandbusinessdecision-makerstodirectresourcestowardsaneffectiveenergytransition.

However,theenergysectorwillonlyreachnet-zeroemissions

ifthereisasignificantandconcertedglobalpushtoaccelerate

innovation(IEA,2020a).Technologiesstillcurrentlyatthe

prototypeordemonstrationphaserepresentaround35%of

thecumul

ativeCO2emis

sionsreductionsneededtoshifttoa

sustainablepathconsistentwithnet-zeroemissionsby2070.

ThesuccessfulexamplesofLEDsorlithium-ionbatteries,

whichtookbetweentenand30yearstogofromthefirst

prototypetothemassmarket,mustsetthebenchmarkfor

thearrayofenergytechnologiesneededtoachievenet-zero

emissions.

Trendsinlow-carbonenergy(LCE)innovationhavenever

beenmoreimportanttopolicymaking.Notonlydoclimate

changegoalsdemandurgentandinformedstrategic

decisionsaboutinnovation,butinvestmentinnew

technologyfieldshastakencentrestageinproposed

recoveryplanstocombattheimpactsoftheCOVID-19

pandemic(IEA,2020b).

Asdescribedinthisreport,cleanenergytransitionsarebeing

builtusinginnovationsthatrepresentadeparturefromthe

typesoftechnologiesdevelopedbytheenergysectorin

previousdecades.Newtechnologiessupportashiftto

greaterrelianceonelectricalpowerinawiderangeof

sectors,withmoreconsumer-orientedsolutionsandmore

distributedresources.Thisisresultinginafocusonsmaller

unitsizesandadifferentsetoftechnologycustomers.These

changesarebringingnewentrantsintotheenergysystems,

increasingthepressuretoinnovateinproductdesignand

raisingtheroleofmanufacturinginnovations,amongother

things.Asthisreportdescribes,thechangingdynamicsof

energyinnovationcanalreadybeseeninpatentingdata.

1EachIPFcoversasingleinventionandincludespatentapplicationsfiledandpublishedatseveralpatentoffices.Itisareliableproxyforinventiveactivitybecauseitprovidesadegreeofcontrolforpatentqualitybyonlyrepresentinginventionsforwhichtheinventorconsidersthevaluesufficienttoseekprotectioninternationally.ThepatenttrenddatapresentedinthisreportrefertonumbersofIPFs.

Backtocontents

10

Afterarapidriseintheperiodto2013,patentingactivityinLCEtechnologiesslumpedbetween2014and2016.However,thelatestdatashowthreeyearsofgrowthinLCE,whichisaparticularlyencouragingtrendwhencontrastedwiththesimultaneousdeclineofpatentinginfossilenergy–afour-yeardeclinethatisunprecedentedsincethesecondWorldWar.

Thenewdriversarenotinenergysupplytechnologies,butrathercontinuedinnovationinend-usesectorsandrisinginnovationincross-cuttingtechnologiessuchasbatteriesandhydrogen.Overall,thecurrentgrowthrateremainsbelowthatwitnessedbefore2013,andanaccelerationinactivitywouldbeneededtomakeupforthelostyears.

Highlight1:From2000to2019,patentingactivitieshavebeenincreasingfasterinlow-carbonenergy(LCE)technologiesthaninfossilfueltechnologies.Afterasignificantdropin2015,thenumberofinternationalpatentfamilies(IPFs)inLCEareashasresumedgrowthsince2017,whilefossilfuelinnovationstartedtodecline.However,theaverageannualgrowthrateofLCEpatentsinrecentyears(3.3%since2017)hasbeenconsiderablylowerthanthe12.5%averagegrowthintheperiod2000-2013.

FigureE1

GlobalgrowthofIPFsinlow-carbonenergytechnologiesversusalltechnologies,2000-2019(base100in2000)

450%

400%

350%

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Low-carbonenergy

Fossilfuels

Alltechnologies

Source:EuropeanPatentOffice

11

Backtocontents

Highlight2:Highactivityinfuel-switchingandenergy

efficiencytechnologiesinend-usesectorshasdrivensteady

LCEpatentingsince2012.Theseareasrepresentastable

60%ofallLCEpatentsoverthepastfiveyears,reflectingthe

massivechallengeofreininginenergydemandacrossthe

economy.Despitedrawingattention,renewables(likewind,

solar,geothermalorhydroelectricpower)andotherLCE

supplytechnologiesrepresentedonly17%ofallLCEIPFsin

2019.Patentinginthesefieldshasbeenfallingsince2012,

incontrastwiththefastgrowthobservedintheprevious

decade.ThekeydriverofLCEgrowthsince2017hasinstead

beeninnovationincross-cuttingtechnologiessuchas

batteries,hydrogenandsmartgrids,aswellas

carbon-capture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS),that

serveaskeyenablersoftheenergytransition.Theshare

ofthesetechnologiesincreasedfrom27%ofallLCEIPFs

in2000to34%in2019.

FigureE2

GlobalgrowthofIPFsincleanenergysupply,enablingandend-usetechnologies,2000-2019

25000

20000

15000

19995

10000

11381

5000

5528

0

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

End-useEnergysupplyEnabling

Source:EuropeanPatentOffice

Backtocontents

12

Highlight3:Cross-cuttingtechnologiesareplayinganincreasinglyimportantroleasenablersforotherLCEtechnologies.Thesearehelpingtheenergysystemtobecomemoreflexibleandexploitsynergiesbetweenrelatedsectors.Thisisillustratedbytheirincreasingoverlapwithpatentingactivitiesinenergysupplyandend-usetechnologies.Aselectricitysupplybecomesmorevariable,theflexibilityofthepowergridandend-usetechnologiesisgrowinginimportance,includingtheirabilitytocommunicatewithoneanother.Forexample,digitaltechnologiesthatcanadjustthepatternsofconsumerenergydemandtotakeadvantageofenergysupplieswhentheyarecheapestaresettobecomekeyelementsoftheoverallenergysystem.

Today,areaslikeelectricitystorageandsmartgridsarecreatingmarketvaluebysupportinghigherlevelsofvariablerenewablepowerwithoutcompromisingelectricitynetworkresilience.Infuture,innovationsthathelpcompaniesofferconsumerscontractsforthequalityoftheirheating,coolingandvehiclecharging–"energy-as-a-service"–whilealsogettingpaidbyenergysuppliersforthedemand-sideflexibilitytheycanguaranteewillfurtherexpandtheseoverlaps.

FigureE3

OverlapsofpatentingactivityinLCEenablingtechnologieswithenergysupplyandend-usetechnologiesinvarioussectors,2000-2019.

Batteries

EV

Smartgrid

Building

CCUS

Chemical&oil

Hydrogen

Consumerproducts

EV

EV

Combustion

Other

road

Chemical

&oil

Building

Consumerproducts

SolarPV

SolarPV

SolarPV

Wind

Fuelfromwaste

Bioenergy

Fuelfromwaste

Building Metal&minerals

Building

Otherproduction

Combustion

Consumer

products

Otherproduction

Agriculture

ICT

Otherproduction

Otherroad

Source:EuropeanPatentOffice

13

Backtocontents

Electricvehiclesaredrivingthedominanceofend-use

technologiesinlow-carbonenergypatenting

Highlight4:Amongtheend-usesectors,thefast

developmentofelectricvehicles(EVs)andassociated

infrastructurehasbeenthemostpowerfuldriverof

innovationinLCEtechnologiesoverthepastdecade.Thisis

visiblebothinend-usetechnologies,wherethenumberofIPFs

inelectricvehiclesovertookothercleanenergytechnologies

forroadvehicles2asof2011,andinthefastriseofinnovation

inbatteriesasenablingtechnologies.Inaddition,thereare

significantpatentingactivitiesinthe"hard-to-abate"sectors

(e.g.metals),withinnovationinbothenergyefficiencyand

directabatement(CCUS).

FigureE4

GlobalgrowthofIPFsinelectricvehiclesversusotherLCEtechnologiesforroadtransportation,2000-2019

5000

4500

4579

4000

3500

3000

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Road/electricRoad/otherLCE

Source:EuropeanPatentOffice

2Includingtechnologiesaimedatmoreefficientcombustionengines,aswellas

improvedaerodynamics,weightreduction,ormoreenergy-efficientcomponents

andsubsystems.

Backtocontents

14

Highlight5:Thelistofthetop15applicantsinLCE

technologiesprovidesastrikingillustrationofthe

expectationsforcontinuedgrowthinEVdeploymentand

thecommercialpressurethatisdrivingmajormanufacturers

tocompeteforapositioninthischanginglandscapefor

transport.Therankingincludessixautomotivecompanies

(Toyota,GM,Ford,Honda,VW,Hyundai)andsixoftheirmain

batterysuppliers(Samsung,Panasonic,LG,RobertBosch,

Hitachi,Toshiba).TheremainingthreetopapplicantsareGE

andSiemens–twoconglomeratesdirectlyinvolvedinthe

energysector–andUScompanyRaytheo