5G产业链加速推进下游应用场景逐步落地

/ 5G 5G19 61420.84%8 614 TTM35.56X42.60X 33.88XTMT2SW2019Q1 1689.820.4%2019 30265.46%5G327 5G5G“” 5G5G 201966 5G5G AAU5G 100G/400G 5G5G 5G IDC5G 5G CDN IO 20195G4G 5G 5G 5G EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 32.53 -1.67 1.16 1.46 -19.70 28.22 22.44 33.99 0.87 1.02 1.44 46.61 34.50 24.46 34.20 0.77 1.06 1.44 32.12 33.04 24.30 16.77 0.43 0.61 0.84 39.00 27.49 19.96 23.62 0.46 0.75 1.14 44.90 32.76 21.52 -18% -7% 4% 15% 26% 37% 2018/6 2018/7 2018/8 2018/9 2018/10 2018/11 2018/12 2019/1 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 % 1M 3M 12M 4.41% -3.15% 21.66% -1.02% -5.59% 10.81% 122 15055 9272 38.34 2.74 12419 242 % 50.94 2019-06-23 5G 5G 2019-06-16 5G 2019-06-02 S0550517030001xiongj S0550518010001sunsm / 2019-07-02 - 2 / 42 1. 20192019 . 5 1.1. 20195 1.2. 20196 1.2.1. 7 1.2.2. 9 1.3. 201910 2. 5G . 10 2.1. .10 2.1.1. 5G . 10 2.1.2. 5G2019 . 12 2.1.3. 5G 13 2.2. 5G.14 2.2.1. 5G 14 2.2.2. . 15 2.2.3. 16 2.3. .17 2.3.1. 17 2.3.2. . 19 2.3.3. 23 3. 5G 24 3.1. .24 3.1.1. 24 3.1.2. . 29 3.2. .30 3.3. IDC31 3.4. CDN 33 4. . 35 4.1. 000063.SZ5G .35 4.2. 300308.SZ .36 4.3. 002281.SZM2M37 4.4. 300310.SZIDC .38 4.5. 300098.SZ .39 5. . 40 - 3 / 42 12019-6-14 . 5 22019-6-14 . 5 32019-6-14 6 42019-6-14 . 6 5 7 6 . 7 7 . 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 112018 10 122018 10 135G201966 11 145G .11 155G . 12 165G . 13 175G5G 13 185G . 14 195G RAN. 15 20OTN5G 15 215G 15 225G 15 235Gmassive MIMO 15 24CRAN 17 25DRAN 17 26 18 27 19 28 20 295G . 20 305G . 20 31 21 32 . 21 33. 22 34 23 35 . 23 362017 23 37 . 24 38 25 - 4 / 42 39 26 40 26 41 . 27 42 27 43 27 44 27 45 28 462017 . 28 47. 29 48. 29 49 . 30 505 30 512019Q1 . 30 52 . 31 53 . 31 54 31 55/ . 31 56CAGR25% 33 57IDC . 33 588IDC . 33 598IDC 33 60 CDN . 34 61CDN 34 15G 16 2CRANDRAN . 17 3 . 18 4 24 5 . 32 6 34 . 35 . 36 . 37 . 38 . 39 - 5 / 42 1. 20192019 1.1. 2019 5G2019614 20.84%30021.40% 30019.64%21.53% 12019-6-14 1200 1700 2200 2700 3200 3700 4200 4700 15-11 16-01 16-03 16-05 16-07 16-09 16-11 17-01 17-03 17-05 17-07 17-09 17-11 18-01 18-03 18-05 18-07 18-09 18-11 19-01 19-03 19-05 Wind 8 48.70%31.66%31.29%26.94%25.62% 22019-6-14 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Wind - 6 / 42 2019 614TTM35.56X 42.60X33.88XTMT2 TTM32.08X 58.15X28.40X 32019-6-14 Wind 42019-6-14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Wind 1.2. 2019 SW2019Q11689.820.4%2016 Q1 2018Q11024.612019Q1 - 7 / 42 953.494G 5G 5 wind SW2019Q182.386.76 2018Q154.07 2019Q18.62 6 wind 1.2.1. 20193G4G 2009-20133G 520144G 20164G 20193026 5.46%5G327 - 8 / 42 7 9.7% -15.1% 7.2% 17.7% 12.9% 11.4% 16.4% -18.8% -13.1% -7.4% 5.5% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 201958029.18%5G 60-80 41.48%9.8%25.78% 8 169.60 154.20 255.30 237.70 229.20 311.60 278.00 182.00 170.62 214.6 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019E 20197804.1%5G 9025.10% 26.38% - 9 / 42 9 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 VAS PUE1.3 PUE1.4 IDC2018 5 20166.8ZB202120.6ZB2016 202124.7%2016 88%202195%2016-202126.6% 5G IDC - 33 / 42 56CAGR25% 57IDC IDC 8 IDC 588IDC 598IDC 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31 IDC 3.4. 5GCDN2019CDN 116380CDN201818 39CDN393 CDN117CDN 30%2017 - 34 / 42 60 CDN 61CDN 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CDN(,)YOY IDC CDNCDN VR/AR5G CDN CDN IO CDN 6 CDN +IoTLink Edge ENSCDN130070 90T CDNCDNCDN AI+CDN600 CDN50010TB2016 2016CDN 3000 - 35 / 42 4. 4.1. 000063.SZ5G 2019Q12018 855.1321.41% 69.84252.88%10 2019 Q18.6254.07 5G2018 5G 305G5G Massive MIMOGlobalData5G 5G RAN5G CoreNB-IoT 5G30005G NR/NexGenCore 7000 2019-202148.8 61.3 77.6 PE 28 22 18 5G 5G 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 108,815 85,513 101,034 120,298 145,594 %7.49% -21.41% 18.15% 19.07% 21.03% 4,568 -6,984 4,875 6,129 7,756 %293.78% -252.88% -169.81% 25.72% 26.54% 1.09 -1.67 1.16 1.46 1.85 30.11 -19.70 28.22 22.44 17.74 3.03 4.17 4.05 3.40 2.82 4,193 4,193 4,193 4,193 4,193 - 36 / 42 4.2. 1 2 BA T 17%40%ICP 3400G2019 20204100G400G () 5G14G5G 6G/10G 25G10G/100G 100G/200G/400G4GRRU+BBU AAU+DU+CU50G/100G(500 1000)4G 2.5220083G () 1 500mPSM42 intelluxtera100G400G 2019 2019-2021 7.27/10.26/12.45 PE 35X/24X/20X 400G 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2,357 5,156 5,777 7,642 9,384 %1690.82% 118.76% 12.03% 32.28% 22.80% 162 623 727 1,026 1,245 %1506.36% 285.82% 16.69% 41.08% 21.37% 0.23 0.87 1.02 1.44 1.74 258.54 46.61 34.50 24.46 20.15 10.42 6.08 3.48 3.05 2.65 474 475 714 714 714 - 37 / 42 4.3. M2M (1) 2018183G4G 1.4530.48%37.12% 30 (2)2018 180055002019 (3)2018 2018 18.61%/76.49% 2018673946.60%14.15% 2019-20217.8711.0615.14 1.712.323.14EPS 1.061.441.95 PE332418 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 362 476 787 1,106 1,514 %34.16% 31.39% 65.32% 40.49% 36.92% 97 125 171 232 314 %1.75% 28.54% 37.05% 35.97% 35.44% 0.60 0.77 1.06 1.44 1.95 46.78 32.12 33.04 24.30 17.94 5.89 4.63 5.45 4.45 3.57 160 161 161 161 161 - 38 / 42 4.4. IDC IDCIDC 12.92YOY 47.79%201755.18%56.70% 98,0752 3 101.96 KDDI 43.8YOY 52.4% 4.73YOY 61.5%2018 (9.7%)10.19%10.80% 160AWS IDC AWSAWS AWSIDC 201920219.3412.9919.73EPS 0.610.841.28PE27.9420.0913.22 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 4,077 6,023 8,265 11,359 16,119 75.92% 47.73% 37.23% 37.43% 41.90% 436 667 934 1,299 1,973 30.05% 53.13% 39.93% 39.05% 51.95% 0.28 0.43 0.61 0.84 1.28 59.88 39.10 27.94 20.09 13.22 4.06 3.48 3.09 2.68 2.23 1,446 1,540 1,541 1,541 1,541 - 39 / 42 4.5. 19952017 ARJ11RJ45/RJ45 USB HDMIDP SFP () 60%/20%2018 777417.28%1 234 Full RiseDuratelFCI 2018 84072017SFP 100Gbps 2019/2020/2021 1.28/1.95/2.70 PE33X/22X/16X 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1,215 1,388 1,754 2,239 2,816 %22.59% 14.21% 26.41% 27.63% 25.80% 94 78 128 195 270 %-5.17% -17.28% 64.55% 52.21% 38.78% 0.55 0.46 0.75 1.14 1.58 70.50 44.90 32.76 21.52 15.51 6.03 3.11 3.19 2.78 2.35 107 171 235 235 235 - 40 / 42 5. 5G201712NR2018 6NR5G Release-15 Release162019125G 5G5G 5G 5G 5G - 41 / 42 2015 2015 2016 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6