气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍.ppt

气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysicalImpactsWork,YinlongXU（许吟隆）InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgricultureChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)Beijing,China中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所Tel:+861082109766;Telcomprehensivelyanalyzetheexperienceofpastadaptingtoextremedroughtandfloods目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective3：AssessthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeonfuturewaterresourcesoverChina目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Addressnationaladaptationstrategyofwaterindustrytoclimatechange.,地方层面工作计划Province-levelworkplan,宁夏Ningxia农业Agriculture水资源WaterResources适应技术示范Adaptationcasestudy内蒙InnerMongolia草地畜牧业Grassland-livestock水资源Waterresources适应案例研究Adaptationcasestudy,省份1：内蒙古Province1：InnerMongolia,：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学）：Grassland-livestock(IMAgriculturalUniversity),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价Objective1ClimatechangeimpactsriskassessmentforwholeInnerMongoliagrassland-livestock目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估Objective2AssesstheCCriskimpactongrassland-livestockforwholeInnerMongoliagrasslandunderthefutureclimatescenarios,：水资源（内蒙古水利局）：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofInnerMongolia),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估Objective1DetectionofclimaticchangeimpactsonInnerMongoliawaterresource目标2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective2Futureriskassessment目标3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究Objective3Casestudyofdifferentgrasslandtyperegionaboutwaterresources,：适应案例研究：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations,目标1：典型草原草地畜牧业区锡林浩特Objective1TypicalsteppegrasslandandanimalhusbandryareaXilinhaote目标2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区多伦Objective2Sandygrasslandagriculturalarea-Doron目标3：荒漠草原农牧交错带四子王旗Objective3Ecotoneofdesertandgrassland-Siziwangqi,省份2：宁夏Province2：Ningxia,：农业（宁夏气象研究所）：Agriculture(NingxiaMeteorologicalResearchInstitute),目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测Objective1AnalyzetheimpactofpresentclimatechangeonagricultureinNingxia目标2：未来影响的评估。评估未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业生产的可能影响和脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行农业综合适应气候变化措施的示范和效果评估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出对农业生产有指导意义的适应对策建议。Objective2Assessthefutureagriculturalproductionriskofclimatechange.AssessthepossibleimpactandvulnerabilityofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductioninNingxia,intermsofextremeclimateevents,especiallydroughtandhottemperatureevents.;demonstrateandevaluatethecomprehensivetechnologiestoadapttoclimatechange;provideindicativesuggestioninadaptingtoagro-meteorologicalhazards.目标3：气候变化综合对策分析Objective3Comprehensiveagriculturaladaptationrecommendationstoclimatechange,：水资源（宁夏水利局）：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofNingxia),目标1：构建全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型Objective1BuilddistributedassessmentmodelinNingxia目标2：气候变化对历史水资源的影响检测Objective2RiskassessmentsforthemainriversinNX目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective3Waterbalanceassessmentforcasestudyareaandpolicyrecommendations,：适应案例研究：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations,目标1：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季”、提高冷凉山区农业生产效益的可行性Objective1Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,Mainlytostudytheimplementationofrevaccinationofwinterwheatandpasture,toachieveone-yeartwoseasons,andpromotethefeasibilityofagriculturalproductionefficiencyincoldmountainareas.目标2：主要进行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培Objective2Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingmaize目标3：主要进行适应气候变暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引进与示范栽培Objective3Undertheconditionofadaptationtoclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingpotatoes.目标4：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰产及养畜利用技术示范研究Objective4Mainlytostudythehighyieldofleguminousforage(alfalfa,Onobrychis)andusageoftechnologyinlivestock,Whatsnewrelativetotheformerprojects,Policy-orientedQuestion-basedFromrunofftohydrologyconcentrationandroutingTypicalregionshighlightedMorepracticalforcasestudyCombinationforthemethodoftop-downandbottom-upLessdependenceonmodels,Provincial-levelRiskAssessment,National-levelRiskAssessment,CaseStudyAreas,National-levelPolicyRecommendations,Provincial-levelPolicyRecommendations,LocalAdaptationPolicyRecommendations,Shortcomingsandthenext-stepwork,StillindraftLackof