宏观经济学ppt课件 (8).ppt

Macroeconomics Lecture14SupplyShock Introduction ObjectiveIntroducingthesupplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomyDiscussthepolicyfromthesupplysideeconomicsthatdealswiththestagflationDiscusstheempiricalwageandpriceequation thedualPhilipscurves Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy WhatisthesupplyshockTheshock oraneconomicchange thatmaketheaggregatesupplycurvetoshift Thenegativesupplyshockistomaketheaggregatesupplytoshifttheleft Thepositivesupplyshockistomaketheaggregatesupplycurveshifttotheright Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Theimpactofthe negative supplyshockshifttheaggregatesupplycurvetotheleftandthereforedecreasetheoutput increasetheprice seethefigure Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Theimpactofthe negative supplyshock continued Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Theimpactofthe negative supplyshock continued Whenoutputdecreases theemploymentwillalsodecrease Thisindeedgeneratesthestagflation ShiftthePhilipscurvetotheright seethefigure Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Theimpactofthe negative supplyshock continued Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Thecasestudy theoilcrisis Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Thecasestudy theoilcrisis continued Between1973and1981 theinternationaloilpricehasbeenincreasedalmostbythreetimescomparingtothepricein1960 s Suchasharpincreaseisbroughtbytwooilcrisisthathaveoccurredin1973and1980 ItistheOPECthatmayresponsetothesetwooilcrisis Supplyshockanditsimpactontheeconomy Thecasestudy theoilcrisis continued Manyhavearguedthatthestagflationsoccurredin1970 sand1980 sareduetotheoilcrisis ThebreakdownoftheOPEC Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Whatisthetechnicalprogress ThenewtechnologythatmaketheoutputincreaseatthesameinputsorinputdecreaseatthesameoutputLaborsaving capitalsavingorneutraltechnicalprogress Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Whatisthetechnicalprogress continued Considerthefollowingtheproductionfunctions Y LYp KY AK1 L Theincreasein andAcanbeunderstoodasthetechnicalprogressrespectivelyinlaborsaving capitalsavingandneutral Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock ThechoiceoftechnicalprogressDependingontherelativepriceoflaborandcapitalThisseemstosuggestthatinthedevelopedcountries laborsavingismoredesiredthanindevelopingcountriesTechnicalprogressinU S GermanandChina seethefigureinthenextpage Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Thechoiceoftechnicalprogress continued Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress usinglaborsavingasanexample Thefirstimpactwillbetheshiftintheproductionfunction seethefigureinthenextpage andtherefore atthegivenoutputlevel determinedbytheaggregatedemand employmentisreduced Thisindicatesthatthetechnicalprogressmaycauseunemployment Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress continued Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress continued Thesecondimpactisthereduceinthepriceperunitoutput andthereforecausetheaggregatesupplycurveshiftstotheright Thisindicatesthattechnicalprogressisessentiallyapositivesupplyshock Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress continued Theshiftintheaggregatesupplycurvewillmakepricereducedandoutputincrease Therefore employmentwillberecovered Thisindicatesthattheoveralleffectonemploymentisnotclear butsincepriceisreduced thePhilipscurveislikelytoshifttotheleft Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress continued TheoverallimpactOutputincreasesInvestment Interestrate PricedecreasesEmployment Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress theneoclassicalanalysisMarginalproductunderCobb DauglassproductionfunctionMPK 1 AK1 L 1MPL AK L Technicalprogress increaseinA willshifttheMPKandMPLtotheleft seethefigureinthenextpage Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress theneoclassicalanalysis continued Thetechnicalprocessasasupplyshock Theimpactoftechnicalprogress theneoclassicalanalysis continued Consequently thedemandforcapitalandlaborwillbeincreased sowillbetheoutput ThedualPhilipscurve TheoriginalPhilipscurve Philips1958 RelatingthegrowthrateofnominalwagetotheunemploymentrateThestandardPhilipscurve SamuelsonandSolow 1961 Relatingtheinflationratetotheunemploymentrate ThedualPhilipscurve ThemodeldualPhilipscurves withexpectationandsupplyshock ThedualPhilipscurveinFlaschel GongandSemmler 2001 2002 wherepistheinflationrate wisthegrowthrateinnominalwage Nistheemploymentrate Uisthecapacityutilization istheexpectedinflationrate xisthegrowthrateinlaborproductivity ThedualPhilipscurve ThemodeldualPhilipscurves continued ThedualPhilipscurveinU S ThedualPhilipscurve ThemodeldualPhilipscurves continued ThedualPhilipscurveinGermany ThedualPhilipscurve ThemodeldualPhilipscurves continued ThedualPhilipscurveinChina setting n 0 0and 0 Thesupply sideeconomics Anti stagflationpolicyIfstagflationiscausedbyanegativesupplyshock thenanappropriatepolicyistomakeapositivesupplyshocksoastoshifttheaggregatesupplytotherightThisindeedgeneratesthesupply sideeconomics Thesupply sideeconomics TaxcutasapolicycoreReasoning EncouragepeopletosearchforworkSimulatetheinvestmentandthereforecreatecapacityMoretaxcutforcompanyFirst adoptedbyReganadministration followedbyotherrepublicadministration Thesupply sideeconomics IssuesanddisputesTaxcutisalsoanexpansionaryfiscalpolicy Itsimpactonthesupplysideofeconomymaybemoredelayedcomparingtotheshortruneffectofdemandexpansionary Creatingdebtproblemtoth