石油石化行业2009年投资策略石油石化:油价和政策的博弈_第1页
石油石化行业2009年投资策略石油石化:油价和政策的博弈_第2页
石油石化行业2009年投资策略石油石化:油价和政策的博弈_第3页
石油石化行业2009年投资策略石油石化:油价和政策的博弈_第4页
石油石化行业2009年投资策略石油石化:油价和政策的博弈_第5页
已阅读5页,还剩17页未读 继续免费阅读

付费下载

下载本文档

版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领

文档简介

AuKA!7,X!B5!F- - 1* ,X . 1* +9 g - 0J- - 2009 H i C 1* +9 2008 H 12 b 4 d !1A- OjdF +A6(2T99F +AiC?U&g153 G=a$v7,XPG=aE,X6C!7E!9E/soM6nCD,XGK 40-50 5bK6iF9E!9g153 GEH 5oL,XE0*KSE ,X)K 60-80 5b /J 2008 H WTI sB: 100 5b /J 2009 H C!(,XE 5! 6$dNZ,XFSN$ Y! $,XLn0n,X,G0Lu,XiC/g153 + u 2009 H 6S$v*CrE4E+u,XuGY+b#K6B#K!+9G$CG#K#K/90GoLp +u C!| C!$,XNL=g153 i C 1* +9 1*9E- iC,XGK24!M6 1*59iC?U-#K#K/4D9,XiCA4L)!S6u4rA4G & , NX # i C A 4EPS PE /6u 08E 09E 10E 08E 09E 10EPB A 4, - 11.54 0.66 0.82 0.87 17 13 13 2.5 D9 16- 8.42 0.36 0.71 0.74 23 12 12 2.1 D9 13L)! 10.36 0.57 0.71 0.81 18 14 13 2.2 r 10S6u 7.01 0.51 0.50 0.76 14 14 9 2.0 r 8#K 10.68 0.74 0.91 0.99 14 12 11 2.4 D9 16#K/ 13.03 0.65 0.95 1.13 20 14 11 4.0 D9 16Cm9$dDGiCd24 6u 2008 H 11 21 , D iC1*+9 PPT . 2008 H 8 - CCy 2008 H110 C C! . 2008 H 11 5 - - 2009 H i C 1* +92008 H 12 , )s i G 1no4 40-50 5b /Je4 160-80 5b /JKSE K 3 C ! 6! C! G1*M=9,X 6! iC,XFSN$ 8Y+u G0E 9i C 1* +9 G & 11- 601857 11- 600028 12L)! 002267 13S6u 600256 13#K 601808 14#K/ 600583 15L ) 16!EW 16- EE: 16-4 17- - 2009 H i C 1* +92008 H 12 , ) 1no4i4 .1 2G=a$v#|,X?Us .1 3 1998 Hn#4#EsLEE94 .2 4 2008 H 8 5bsL: .2 5 2008 H 7 9LtEC .2 6( - 2007 H! 2009 H i C 1* +912008 H 12 ss i G n o 4 40-50 5b /J e 4 o b 7 C n o 4 i 4 6 e 1 n o 4 i 4ADQDGEASBPCm9$dA-0JFG =a E S t E & ) *|Q96 2008 H,XLs4EiEEE7|6,XLCK,Xn0*A44Ax2004 H9,XE4 ,X.BHs,XLC9C0e,X2sBCG?E=7/M6)#|C_rLE 140 5b /J,XM6 2007 H 70 5b /J,XM6JuCe 50#|,XG=a$v#|,X?Us 2 G =a $v #| ,X ?U s 20082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198619841982198019781976197419721970H050010001500200025003000700J DJ-AIG SP-GSCI S&PGSCI600500400300200100DiC?5bBP,DCm9$dL-4#LZ-5%A-0JF1997-1998 H,Xn#G=aE37-L,X94 20 5b /JC7 12 5b /JCE 40% 1998 H)-LrEL!7 0.46%n-L)BrKSEBG=aEE?U! 1998 H#ES3)r4#$nLc-5bG=a,XJL,X)4#M6!,X5P 2009 H i C 1* +922008 H 12 3 1998 H n # 4 # E s L E E 9 4-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007Ax),!,X!4oL ? 8EC0NK,XiG;c?4#:Abo4LL94,XE/,XG5&,X6bo4 5o4,Xb*5,Xi9 G*5,Xi96s,Xi C74LECKo,XEE5eC,X 5 2008 H 7 9 L t E C ) ! 5b /J6070809010011012013014015008H WTIsB081002080802080802080702080602080502080402080302080202080102&i.L94Cm9$dLZ-5%A-0JF ,X G , -,X!,X9k*!,X6o-06o,X8-,X!*C*vC*ll5JJ/Gk/J1NM,b9A*2,GCE/n44G!,X?U)*3/0ll5J5 2009 H i C 1* +932008 H 12 2007 HH Y ?U _ - ,X ! 4z 33 5b /J G 8 5DE,X/zi#NX?,X6C. 50 5b /J,XGM6?,XNX7*4G,X1*Axb 50 5b /J,X4bL94E/,X46)C*4LEL-GKEL+1*G,XsCK00?E,Xp4*,Xp4|CDB,X?U|oNXAu 40-50 5b /J,XK6,XiF60-80 5b /J KS E KZ - o L G 5 ,X o 4 # 2 20 4 80 H+ -oL,bG5oL5EHtZ,L8Z 1973 H 1978 H 1990 H!8 A,X-EJoL5,XrF7,X#| 2004 H9-5EH=38V8V 2007 H+ -GE 81.53,RJ /L 85.22 ,RJ /oL5 3.69 ,RJ /- - 2009 H i C 1* +942008 H 12 9 5 7 ,X G E !9 -oL5,X=M6+ 4#E95oBGP,XEL+L4Eo+,XGEEPb,!oo+57GG,XOPEC o 4 6 oOPEC 4xG0x,E!C$d)*50,X44A44EEG!NqL$G 2009 H i C 1* +952008 H 12 08 HH 5 o 4 08 H 6 o 4 08 H 7 o 4 08 H 6 08 H 7 G! Nq , ! G! NqUAE 2.65 2.67 2.67 2.87 2.57 2.44 Y*2 5 2.32 2.38 2.38 2.60 2.47 2.34 1 1.83 1.87 1.85 2.05 1.90 1.80 X* 1 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.49 2.40 2.51 2.41 2.56 OPEC 31.84 32.63 32.77 35.95 28.81 27.31 Cm9$d IEA Oil Market Report (August)A-0JF 5+ o 4 6 o5+,X-G 2007 H 10 E 990 J,XPE4L!EL! 2%5+B,Xs5+b/11*27,X4iCC6CJr9,X 2009 HJ,XH5+64 2008 H,XPG,+eK,!p!7-?EKNleG,X$Z4P%069,5+!HG4 700 J /J o 4 6 oCG=a.L94E0*,X4p5 5 5 ,X ( - ! ,X 4 ,X , ! G 30-50 5b /J ,X G ,X KS ) K 60-80 5b /J - - 2009 H i C 1* +962008 H 12 C ! ! C ! G 1* M= 9 ,X 08 H 7 9- C! ,XM6YP,XnL?US,X/BS-4ZZZ8DL,X49 2008 HH&S+)Nqc3 08 HH4)z,X$ 13 E H 9 y 4 !-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%01002003004005006007008009002002200320042005200620072008-#z -#z-#zrKS) % -#zrKS) %Cm9$d WindnyA-0JF-DBG*L 14 E H 9 & S + , !-700-600-500-400-300-200-1000100200200320042005200620072008- - 4 C dEs,X: 6 ,XA,X49_o44?NXAu7z-r),5-C5(M,GUNqL!94bL C!z1*/C4E d C 1* ) W ,!,X1*)W;,!,X-&,cG5&4z 80-90 5b /JK- 90-95 5b /JKBZ4PEPEF,X&,0NKEE1*9A8V#z C 8 _ e 4 Lc - ,X 5 r KS - - 2009 H i C 1* +972008 H 12 9,X!3LC64YA,X 1 2 #Pg,BE#1k Ax A H A H z 500-1000 / K 16 2003 H 7 s H i g , /H z r L J G51%68%78%89%99%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2003 2004 2005 2006 20072003 2004 2005 2006 200720087 920087970%Cm9$d Wind EDBA-0JF 17 2003 H 7 s g , E H 050010001500200025003000350040004500500017z 27z 37z 47z2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20087 9- - 2009 H i C 1* +982008 H 12 ! i C ,X FS N $ Y ! L ,4!*1*6$d*,XTNX# 2010 H!#CGP 1200 02GoL544=,XNX#! IEA?U$?7 2008 H!#CrE! IEA NX#,XP NXAu!#C 2008-2010 HHrKS 25.4%rKS) 20.8% !#C02G 353.79 413.96 509.67 599.85 710.61 864.04 1% 1.49 1.66 2.09 2.45 3.11 3.73 xEEEg|F+E 13.01 17.24 16.89 20.83 27.94 34.31 MLCNOB 10.79 13.16 17.11 20.83 22.95 26.96 J 9.12 12.77 16.09 18.33 19.96 23.28 *#C79.43 102.62 133.39 170.73 213.42 273.17 #CrE % 20.5% 17.0% 23.1% 17.7% 18.5% 21.6% 1% 7.2% 11.4% 25.9% 17.3% 27.0% 19.8% xEEEg|F+E 16.6% 32.5% -2.0% 40.8% 23.3% 34.2% MLCNOB 17.5% 22.0% 30.0% 13.7% 21.7% 10.2% J -35.5% 40.0% 26.0% 13.9% 8.9% 16.7% *#C18.2% 29.2% 30.0% 28.0% 25.0% 28.0% Cm9$dA-0JF Y ! A H ) NN 6 $d ! G 22005 H!rAuYAu!E M=AH!2O4XJAi 2007 HNU ) M= G b A H ! G K Nl ,X E - P*! 2009 H i C 1* +992008 H 12 + / * ! 2O 2005 H V 2007 H V 6y*! 560 560*! 585 985 +Z+! 560 5606y*! 660 660 *! 920 1320J+! 830 830 !:4 7P7G -7!M4!9Px,!_4! CNGr)ZQM4,X/8!M=NO)#! LPG8&16$d7!G29 ! n M= 0 L ?U E Y!n1%CKZ#Lp(MLkLG=aEEEE94$,X)L!Y! ,XL0n,X#z0NK6$dNZ,XFSN$ 5,h,XEL!E,XiC/ 18 5b ! 4 0 ) ! 5b /,R 8 & ) !0510152025081103081003080903080803080703080603080503080403080303080203080103New York natural gas price BeiJing natural gas priceCm9$d EIAA-0JF 19 2007 H Y ! , 6 o !0510152025303540!) ) ROE%L$ Y$ L$ Y$ Y + u G 0 E 2004-2008 H,X#|Z+u ,XKSCPo=GAv)4f 2010 H- - 2009 H i C 1* +9102008 H 12 20 2001-2007 H + ?U #K ! i C050010001500200025002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20075bHrKS 12.2%M2# # /!86( 5b# n 21 2004-2007 H #K + u 9 9010002000300040005000600070002003 2004 2005 2006 2007,R5bJ9#K TRANSOCEAN NOBLE DIAMOND PRIDECm9$d-|Avy -)() 2007 ( nyA-0JF 2006 HAu 2007 HNX#iCC49 22 2004-2007 H Y #K J i G C)0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20075b /7 %0 C ! z :G=aE$&3 C!zCLc?U-$!GL+EC! C!+u L!EBZ4P#K+u C!zC),X|6o!#K+u C!zNXAu 09 Hi?NJ 24 C) | $ | 1-2 H C_ 5b /JWorldwide Contracted Utilization Jackups and Floaters0.001984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 200610.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.001Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08Jackups FloatersWTI oil priceContractedUtilization%Cm9$d ODS-PetroData BP 6$d4AuA-0JF- - 2009 H i C 1* +9112008 H 12 r E 09 H 6 4Y+u#K#K/F#K?Uu97!#KJYu9#KL$,XCPz,G 04 H9, C! 6S$v*CrE45E+u,XuGY+b#K6B#K!+9G$CG90GoLp C!| E G0i C 1* +9 G & Es,X: 6 ,XA,X49_o44?NXAu7z-r),5-C5(M,GUNqL!94bL C!z1* - 601857g153 C ! E 4 6 P z 08 H 7 C!E$k-C&V)L!GL!7 05 H9:,X6CY,A,X_oVpASQ$E4394?U? ,XC!(g153 S + G 0 E 08 H!7zP6C4Z8DL49S+49G0E ?UJGFrKSJs!GrKS 2.8% 16.3%stGrKS 5.1%Q8GJG!rKS 4.6% 9.3%6-&GrKS 4.7% 4.8%9 C! E/hkg153 X & ( $ u B M6 E Lc-,X:!&(4QE$u#z449BM6E9A!7B,XhS 08 H4)pg153 N L= 2 sC,XNL=A,XNL=- - 2009 H i C 1* +9122008 H 12 g153 , NX # i C A 4 - 08/09/10 H EPS0.66/0.82/0.87 08/09/10 H PE17/13/13 ! 11.54 , 16 D9A4NM , /H z 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 99 6,890 8,350 10,040 11,239 12,962 rKS) YoY% 21.2 20.2 11.9 15.3 #z 1,362 1,346 1,204 1,505 1,601 rKS) YoY% -1.2 -10.5 24.9 6.4 !) % 47.4 41.7 39.2 38.2 37.0 !6u, EPS 0.76 0.74 0.66 0.82 0.87 !6uC 1.48 1.87 4.31 5.05 5.80 C,) ROE% 51.5 39.4 15.3 16.3 15.1 !6u49)G# 1.15 1.15 1.26 1.55 1.76 ,) P/E 14 15 17 13 13) P/B 7.4 5.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 Cm9$dDGiCd246u 11 21 , - 600028g153 E 4 6 P z 08 H 7 C!E$k-C&V)L!GL!7 05 H9:,X6CY,A,X_o VpA SQ$E4394?U? ,XC!(g153 C ! z E 9 S + 9 4 08 H!7z$JG0!9rKSS+bL+EC:GC M6,Xg153 : EO & S + 4 9 _ o H 4 EW Q 2009 H i C 1* +9132008 H 12 !b)L!0NK E!9$EgG! , HPLz,X)0NK4! b,XiCA4L)L) ! 002267g153 L) ?S , ,X ! KS Eg 1u F E 9 L)?S,X!KSEg1uFE92O_,25%4?Z,S,X5%4b7X(ML)?S,X!,KSKY4g153 8C Q ,X KS 4EHA?=!),XP*!G,XrKS S40nrKS L)+,X1u5%?Z,)E!9PF9P,XrKSg153 u 0 n P k 4 # 5CGU#z,XNL=g153 , NX # i C A 4 L)! 08/09/10 H EPS0.57/0.71/0.81 PE08/09/10 H 18/14/13 ) 10.36 , 10 rA4NM , /H z 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 99 ( ) 135,441.63 157,869.57 171,393.31 198,164.86 232,454.69rKS) YoY % 16.56 8.57 15.62 17.30#z ( ) 20,413.80 25,385.26 29,220.16 36,212.24 41,429.30rKS) YoY% 24.35 15.11 23.93 14.41!6u, EPS( ) 0.50 0.62 0.57 0.71 0.81!) % 26.39 27.16 25.24 24.75 24.06C,) ROE% 49.98 62.15 14.43 15.65 15.71!6u49)G# 0.97 1.16 0.94 0.97 1.01,) P/E 19 15 18 14 13) P/B 8.8 8.8 2.2 1.9 1.7Cm9$dDGiCd246u 11 21 ,S 6u 600256g153 Y ,X L LNG * Y,XL LNG * 07H LNG J94994z 35% LNG un!b1uEg!oAu9o!EEJ!?FS09Lc-NM,Xi!,XE!9)NN#zGg153 : 6 LNG J 2009 H i C 1* +9142008 H 12 g153 88 + G / + Gn NM , ?U G 8V E S8NM,GK)8Vs$mohEEgJ|G 18.7 ,XKS&8-ohNM,8*G 100 HTGH#G4z 8000 6$CNM,*AF4+GnEEg-YFG*CEEg+Gn LNG J#FJ3nLp DME NM,i9,X4rKS&g153 N L= 2 )AME,XNL=97J+Gn*E950,XNL=NM,AbNX,XNL=+Gn*0E:*mEE|,XNL=NM,iCNqrt,XNL=g153 , NX # i C A 4 S6u 08/09/10 H EPS 0.51/0.50/0.76 08/09/10 H PE13/14/9 ! 7.01 , 8 rA4NM , /H z 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 99 188,322 190,947 205,710 218,095 393,080 rKS) YoY % 1.4 7.7 6.0 80.2 #z 19,573 39,023 43,963 43,074 65,867 rKS) YoY% 99.4 12.7 -2.0 52.9 !6u, EPS 0.23 0.45 0.51 0.50 0.76 !) % 20.8 36.4 36.6 38.2 48.0 C,) ROE% 8.3 15.7 14.8 12.6 14.4 !6u49)G# 0.03 0.57 0.80 1.11 1.91 ,) P/E 30 15 13 14 9) P/B 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 Cm9$dDGiCd246u 11 21 ,2009 H! C! 6S$v*CrE4E4#K6B#K!+9G$C C!| b,XiCA4 #K 601808g153 C ! 09 H i ? NJ G=aE$&3 C!zCLc+u L!E#K+u C!zC),X|6o!#K+u C!zL!g153 4 0 n 6E9,XuG0C)#K6M4#KuGA0C)9,P0Ji8,Xk)EW,X0ng153 C o C C ) JC00UM=Q,X)9kTr)7D)+9EE.4G,X!s,XJC0oPzAx 08 H#KE#KC1!9C#KJi AWOC 2009 H i C 1* +9152008 H 12 g153 NN L= 2 v,XiCC54 2009 H i C 1* +9162008 H 12 LL ) ! EW 27 ) ! ! o h ) ! 5b /J G05101520252003 2004 2005 2006 2007BP Shell ChevronLB2 - - 28 ) ! l l 5 J ) ! 5b /J G0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00BP XOM Shell Chevron Sinopec PetroChina5b /JG2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Cm9$d L-4# )!oh*C*vC*ll5JA-0JF 29 ) ! ! v 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00BP XOM Shell Chevron Sinopec PetroChina5b /JGCm9$d L-4# A-0JF 30 ) ! * 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.00BP XOM Shell Chevron Sinopec PetroChina5b /JG2003 2004 2005 2006 2007- - E E : 31 t 5 0.25%S CD 020040060080010001200140016001800060101 060701 070101 070701 080101 080701 /JCm9$dLZ-5%A-0JF 32 t 5 92 J Q CD 060101 060701 070101 070701 080101 0807010200400600800100012001400 /J- - 2009 H i C 1* +9172008 H 12 33 t 5 7 0N 8 CD 020040060080010001200140016001800080901080501080101070901070501070101 /JCm9$dLZ-5%A-0JF 34 Y - 6 CD !020004000600080001000012000081016080916080816080716080616080516080416080316080216080116071216071116071016070916070816070716070616070516070416 /t5-6/ -6V 35 + n E * LDPE CD 050010001500200025005b /133353739311313335373931131333537393Cm9$dLZ-5%A-0JF 36 + n E 6. PP CD 050010001500200025005b /133353739311313335373931131333537393 37 08 H 9 ! Henry Hub 024681012140102 0202 0302 0402 0502 0602 0702 0802 0902 1002 11025b /,R8&)!2008H Henry HubCm9$d EIAA-0JF 38 07 H 5 -08 H 9 & ! -15-10-50510200705200706200707200708200709200710200711200712200801200802200803200804200805200806200807200808200809$/bblCabinda (Hydroskimming) Daqing (Hydroskimming)Dubai (Hydroskimming) Daqing (Hydrocracking)Dubai (Hydr

温馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
  • 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
  • 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
  • 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
  • 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
  • 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。

评论

0/150

提交评论