英语课文翻译自己整理版.doc

Africa rising非洲崛起After decades of slow growth, Africa has a real chance to follow in the footsteps of Asia经历数十年缓慢增长之后，非洲真正获得了追随亚洲的发展机会THE shops are stacked six feet high with goods, the streets outside are jammed with customers and salespeople are sweating profusely under the onslaught. But this is not a high street during the Christmas-shopping season in the rich world. It is the Onitsha market in southern Nigeria, every day of the year. Many call it the worlds biggest. Up to 3m people go there daily to buy rice and soap, computers and construction equipment. It is a hub for traders from the Gulf of Guinea, a region blighted by corruption, piracy, poverty and disease but also home to millions of highly motivated entrepreneurs and increasingly prosperous consumers.译文：商店里堆积了六英尺高的商品，外面的大街上顾客接踵摩肩，店员们忙着接待一波又一波的客人，挥汗如雨。然而这并不是富裕国家圣诞节购物季的大街，而是尼日尼亚南部的奥尼查市场，一年中每天如此。许多人称之为世界第一大市场。每天有多达300万人去那里购买大米、肥皂、电脑和建筑设备。来自几内亚湾的商人都云集于此。这里腐败猖獗，海盗横行，穷人遍地，疾病丛生，但是这里同时又汇聚了无数活跃的企业家和愈发富裕的消费者。Over the past decade six of the worlds ten fastest-growing countries were African. In eight of the past ten years, Africa has grown faster than East Asia, including Japan. Even allowing for the knock-on effect of the northern hemispheres slowdown, the IMF expects Africa to grow by 6% this year and nearly 6% in 2012, about the same as Asia.过去十年中，全球10个经济增长最快的国家中，非洲占了6席。其中有8年非洲比包含日本在内的东亚增长要快。即便考虑到北半球经济衰退的影响，国际货币基金组织预测今年非洲的增速为6%，2012年将接近6%，与亚洲大致相当。The commodities boom is partly responsible. In 2000-08 around a quarter of Africas growth came from higher revenues from natural resources. Favourable demography is another cause. With fertility rates crashing in Asia and Latin America, half of the increase in population over the next 40 years will be in Africa. But the growth also has a lot to do with the manufacturing and service economies that African countries are beginning to develop. The big question is whether Africa can keep that up if demand for commodities drops.非洲国家正在发展的制造业和服务业促进了经济增长商品交易繁荣是部分原因。从2000年至2008年，非洲增长约有四分之一来自于自然资源中获取的更高利润。人口优势则是另一原因。随着亚洲和拉丁美洲的生育率下滑，在接下来的40年中，世界人口增长有一半将来自非洲。非洲国家正在发展的制造业和服务业促进了经济增长。关键问题在于，如果商品需求下跌，非洲还能否继续保持增长。Copper, gold, oiland a pinch of salt铜，黄金、石油，须谨慎视之Optimism about Africa needs to be taken in fairly small doses, for things are still exceedingly bleak in much of the continent. Most Africans live on less than two dollars a day. Food production per person has slumped since independence in the 1960s. The average lifespan in some countries is under 50. Drought and famine persist. The climate is worsening, with deforestation and desertification still on the march.对非洲的乐观期许必须审慎，因为非洲许多地方，情况依然让人沮丧。大多数非洲人每天生活费用不到2美元。自上世纪60年代独立以来，人均粮食生产大幅下跌。一些国家的人均寿命不到50岁。干旱和饥荒持续存在。乱砍滥伐仍在继续，荒漠化不断加剧，气候受此影响也持续恶化。Some countries praised for their breakneck economic growth, such as Angola and Equatorial Guinea, are oil-sodden kleptocracies. Some that have begun to get economic development right, such as Rwanda and Ethiopia, have become politically noxious. Congo, now undergoing a shoddy election, still looks barely governable and hideously corrupt. Zimbabwe is a scar on the conscience of the rest of southern Africa. South Africa, which used to be a model for the continent, is tainted with corruption; and within the ruling African National Congress there is talk of nationalising land and mines. 像安哥拉和赤道几内亚这样的一些国家以经济高速增长著称。这些国家石油资源丰富，但是盗贼统治。一些国家经济发展开始步入正轨，如卢旺达和埃塞俄比亚，政治体制上却是不健全的。刚果现在正在进行虚假的大选，看上去依然无法管理、腐败丛生。津巴布韦是余下的南部非洲良心上的一道伤疤。南非曾是非洲的模范，现在也沾染了腐败，执政的非洲国民大会正对土地和矿藏国家化进行讨论。Yet against that depressingly familiar backdrop, some fundamental numbers are moving in the right direction. Africa now has a fast-growing middle class: according to the World Bank, around 60m Africans have an income of $3,000 a year, and 100m will in 2015. The rate of foreign investment has soared around tenfold in the past decade.然而在这让人郁闷的熟悉背景之下，一些基本数据在朝好的方向发展。非洲现有一个快速增长的中产阶级：根据世界银行的数字，大约有6000万非洲人的年收入有3000美元，2015年的这一人口数字为1亿。外国投资的速度在过去十年中增加了10倍左右。Chinas arrival has improved Africas infrastructure and boosted its manufacturing sector. Other non-Western countries, from Brazil and Turkey to Malaysia and India, are following its lead. Africa could break into the global market for light manufacturing and services such as call centres. Cross-border commerce, long suppressed by political rivalry, is growing, as tariffs fall and barriers to trade are dismantled.中国的到来改善了非洲的基础设施，增强了其制造业。其他一些非西方国家，从巴西到土耳其，从马来西亚到印度，正追随其后。非洲将会进入全球轻工业市场以及如话务中心这样的服务业。随着关税降低、壁垒解除，长期因政治敌对而被抑制的跨国商业得以发展。Africas enthusiasm for technology is boosting growth. It has more than 600m mobile-phone usersmore than America or Europe. Since roads are generally dreadful, advances in communications, with mobile banking and telephonic agro-info, have been a huge boon. Around a tenth of Africas land mass is covered by mobile-internet servicesa higher proportion than in India. The health of many millions of Africans has also improved, thanks in part to the wider distribution of mosquito nets and the gradual easing of the ravages of HIV/AIDS. Skills are improving: productivity is growing by nearly 3% a year, compared with 2.3% in America.非洲对技术的热情促进了经济的增长。非洲共有6亿移动电话用户，这一数字要比美国或欧洲都多。由于道路总体上比较糟糕，通讯上的进步如移动银行的流行和可从电话上获取农业信息，给生活带来了极大的便利。移动互联网设施覆盖了非洲大陆约十分之一的面这一比例比印度要高。数以百万计的非洲人的身体健康同样得到改善，部分是由于蚊帐的广泛分发，以及艾滋造成的破坏慢慢减轻。技术也在进步：生产率每年以3% 的速率增长，与之相比，美国的这一速率为2.3%。All this is happening partly because Africa is at last getting a taste of peace and decent government. For three decades after African countries threw off their colonial shackles, not a single one (bar the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius) peacefully ousted a government or president at the ballot box. But since Benin set the mainland trend in 1991, it has happened more than 30 timesfar more often than in the Arab world.以上这些之所以得以正在发生， 部分原因是非洲终于能够初尝和平和较好政府的甜头了。非洲国家摆脱殖民镣铐之后的三十年， 从来没有一个国家（除了印度洋里的毛里求斯岛国）是通过投票箱和平地罢免一届政府或总统。不过自从贝宁在1991年和平罢免其政府， 从而开启了非洲大陆的先例后，和平罢免在非洲已经上演了30多次远比阿拉伯世界要多。Population trends could enhance these promising developments. A bulge of better-educated young people of working age is entering the job market and birth rates are beginning to decline. As the proportion of working-age people to dependents rises, growth should get a boost. Asia enjoyed such a “demographic dividend”, which began three decades ago and is now tailing off. In Africa it is just starting.人口趋势提升了这种有前途的发展。更多的受过较好教育的达到工作年龄的年轻人进入职场，出生率开始下降。随着工作年龄人口与依赖者比例上升，应会促进经济发展。亚洲享受了始于三十年前“人口红利”，现已至尾声。而非洲则刚刚上路。Having a lot of young adults is good for any country if its economy is thriving, but if jobs are in short supply it can lead to frustration and violence. Whether Africas demography brings a dividend or disaster is largely up to its governments.对任何国家来说，如果经济繁荣，那么青壮年越多越好。但是如果工作岗位不足，则会导致挫折和暴力。非洲的人口会带来红利还是灾难，很大程度上取决于各国政府。More trade than aid要援助，更要贸易Africa still needs deep reform. Governments should make it easier to start businesses and cut some taxes and collect honestly the ones they impose. Land needs to be taken out of communal ownership and title handed over to individual farmers so that they can get credit and expand. And, most of all, politicians need to keep their noses out of the trough and to leave power when their voters tell them to.非洲依然需要深化改革。政府需要降低经商门槛，削减部分税收，诚实征收税费。土地公共所有权需要被废除，并将所有权赋予农民个人，那样农民才可以借贷和扩张。而最重要的是，政客们需要廉洁自律，一旦选民要求，就得离职。Western governments should open up to trade rather than just dish out aid. Americas African Growth and Opportunity Act, which lowered tariff barriers for many goods, is a good start, but it needs to be widened and copied by other nations. Foreign investors should sign the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which would let Africans see what foreign companies pay for licences to exploit natural resources. African governments should insist on total openness in the deals they strike with foreign companies and governments.西方政府应该敞开贸易大门，而非仅仅施以援助。美国的非洲增长和机会法降低了多宗商品的关税壁垒，这是一个好的开端，但是需要加以扩大并让其他国家效仿。西方投资者应该签署采掘行业透明度行动计划，从而让非洲人了解是哪些外国公司花钱注册来开采他们的自然资源。非洲政府在与外国公司和政府交易过程，应当坚持完全公开。Autocracy, corruption and strife will not disappear overnight. But at a dark time for the world economy, Africas progress is a reminder of the transformative promise of growth.An unpalatable solution不被认可的解决办法Eurobonds could restore confidence, but at a cost欧元债券也许能重建信心，但亦要付出代价WITH alarming speed, Europes debt crisis has spread this summer from small countries such as Greece on the rim of the single-currency area to large economies such as Italy at its heart. The European Central Bank (ECB) has restored calm in Italian and Spanish government-bond markets for the moment by making big purchases of their debt. But such bond-buying is a temporarypalliative. Many are now calling for a more fundamental solution to the crisis: the issue of “Eurobonds” in order to provide a fiscal underpinning to theshakymonetary union.今年夏天，债务危机以惊人的速度从欧洲一些小国家漫延到其主要经济体，从单一货币区外围国家希腊到欧洲核心经济体意大利。欧洲央行(European Central Bank)大量购买意大利和西班牙的国债，暂时缓解市场的焦虑。但是买入国债只是暂时的纾困手段。当下人们呼吁更加彻底的解决方案：发行“欧元债券”，融合欧元区财政以支持摇摇欲坠的货币联盟。These Eurobonds are not to be confused with their namesakes invented in the early 1960s, when bankers severed the link between currency and country of issuance by helping international borrowers sell dollar-denominated bonds in London. What advocates of new-style Eurobonds have in mind for the euro area would be even more far-reaching: they wish to sever the link between the creditworthiness of a country and its cost of borrowing. The 17 member states of the single-currency area would be able to borrow in bonds issued by a European debt agency. These would be jointly guaranteed by all euro-area countries and thus underwritten in particular by the mostcreditworthyof themabove all, Germany, because of its economic clout and top-notch credit rating.这次提出的欧元债券和上世纪60年代发行的欧洲债券不一样。当时银行家们为了帮助国际卖家能够在伦敦出售美元计值的债券，允许其发行非本国流通货币的票面币值债券。今天欧元债券的支持者对欧元区的设想则更进一步：他们希望融资成本不与国家的偿付能力挂钩。这样欧元区各成员国就能通过发行统一债券融资。这些债券由欧元区国家联合担保，尤其是信誉良好的国家德国，因为它经济形势最好，信用评级最高。An underlying rationale for Eurobonds is that the public finances of the euro area as a whole look quite respectable, at least compared with those of other big rich economies. The IMFenvisagesthat general government debt will reach 88% of the single-currency zones GDP this year. This is lower than Americas 98% and not much higher than Britains 83%. The euro areas projected budget deficit will be a bit above 4% of GDP, better than Americas 10% and Britains 8.5%. Neither Americadespite the recent downgrade of its debt by a rating agencynor Britain has been subject to adebilitatingloss of confidence. This suggests that pooling debt could indeed put an end to the euro crisis.欧元债券的潜在存在根据是：欧元区公共财政融合成为一个整体会更重要，至少会被其他大而富有的经济体更重视。国际货币组织(IMF)预测今年欧元区政府债务会占其国民生产总值(GDP)的88%。低于美国98%，略高于英国83%。欧元区的预算赤字将会略高于GDP的4%，这比美国的10%，英国的8.5%好很多。英美的情况看起来更糟糕，甚至美国的信用评级最近还被降级了，但他们仍然没有丧失信心。这意味着债务聚合会结束欧元危机。The successive waves of market attacks on countries have exposed an inherent fragility of a monetary union of states in which each stands behind its own debt but with the usual escape routes of devaluation and inflation no longer available. If investors lose confidence in a countrys fiscal prospects, their fear can become self-fulfilling by pushing up bond yields to unsustainable levels. The ECB cansoothemarkets by buying bonds, but beyond a certain point such purchases threaten its independence. By pooling risk, Eurobonds could be a more durable counter to such destabilising liquidity crises, argues Paul De Grauwe, an economist at the Catholic University of Leuven, in Belgium.而现在欧元区各成员国独立应付自己的债务，面对货币贬值、通货膨胀束手无策，在市场不断施压的情况下，清晰地暴露出欧元区固有的脆弱。如果投资者对一个国家的财政预期失去信心，这种消极预期会推高其国债收益率，直至预期变成现实。尽管购买国债券可以暂时缓解市场压力，可一旦突破临界点，之前购买的国债券会严重影响欧洲央行(ECB)的独立性。因此通过风险聚合，欧元债券是应对流动性危机有力手段，比利时天主教鲁汶大学（Catholic University of Leuven） 的经济学家保罗德格劳威（Paul De Grauwe）说。Another reason to introduce Eurobonds is that the existing defences drawn up to contain the crisis are starting to look too flimsy. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the rescue fund set up last year, is due to haveChinas economy Five myths about chinas economy中国30年的惊人经济崛起是这个时代最大的话题之一。其变化发生之快，使得人们对于美国以及世界面对中国所带来的挑战和机遇产生了大量传说和误解：1.中国将会迅速超越美国，成为世界上最强大的经济体根据PEW研究中心一份11月份的民意调查，44%的美国人认为中国已经是世界第一经济大国，而27%的人把美国是排在第一位置。这种观点与事实完全相悖。今年，中国经济预计将生产万亿美元的商品和服务，将使其超越日本成为世界第二大经济国家，但这仍然将只是美国14万亿经济总量的三分之一，并且远远落后于如果作为一个整体看待的欧盟。中国经济之所以如此强大的原因之一就是它的13亿人口。但是中国人均GDP只有美国水平的1/7。而在家庭生活水平方面，中国落后得更多。每年，一个普通中国家庭消费的商品和服务总价值仅相当于普通美国家庭购买量的十四分之一。尽管美国制造业失业率长期居高不下，美国仍是制造业的世界领导者，因为其制造商在诸如飞机和高科技设备之类的高价值产品上表现卓越，而中国仍然主要生产低成本的服装和消费电子产品。就商品价值而言，美国生产的产品占全球制造业产量的20%以上，差不多相当于中国所占比例的两倍。2.中国大量持有美国国债意味着它能在经济谈判中要挟华盛顿。中国是持有最多美国国债的国家约1万亿美元。许多人认为这就意味着中国是美国的银行家，就好比一个银行，每当华盛顿做出一些令中国领导人不喜欢的事，它就能通过出售国债，随时收回它的信用额度。但是中国的国债持有并非银行向公司发放的常规贷款那样。它们更像是存款：安全，可流动且具有很低的利率。正如一个存款者，中国对于银行如何经营其业务拥有很少话语权。它只能用双脚投票，即将存款放到其它地方去-但是由于其存款量实在太庞大了，世界上没有其它一家银行能够接受它们。欧洲和日本债券市场规模不够大，无法吸收那么多中国现金，而中国也无法购买足够多的油田，铁矿或房地产来消化它的资金。而且它也不能单单将其拥有的美元投资在国内，因为这样做会导致通胀混乱。因此，无论喜不喜欢，华盛顿和北京都得彼此纠缠在一快儿-并且互相都没有足够的实力要挟对方。3.令其货币升值是中国为减少其贸易逆差所能做的最关键的事。一些美国公司，工会和政客抱怨说中国通过保持人民币元与美元的固定汇率从而不公平地保持其商品在世界市场上的廉价，从而通过牺牲其贸易伙伴利益来推动贸易逆差。当然，汇率的确重要，但如果认为令人民币升值会奇迹般地使中国的贸易逆差消失，那是错误的。在上世纪80年代末，日本允许日元升值两倍，但其贸易逆差并未消失。相反，在2009年中国虽保持人民币与美元的固定汇率，其贸易逆差却下降了三分之一。财政部之盖特纳上周四在北京与中国经济官员讨论货币问题。大多数观察家-包括中国最高的经济政策制定者-同意人民币应该升值。但是为了使该举措取得良好效果，必须同时采取其它政策变更加以配合。目前为止，中国减少贸易逆差所能做的最重要的事是刺激国内需求（包括进口需求），而他们已经通过庞大的基础建设开支项目开始实施了。有证据表明随着工资的提高以及人民对未来持乐观态度，中国家庭也正开始更自由地消费。4.中国对资源的渴求正吸干整个世界，并成为全球暖化的主要因素。诚然，中国目前是导致全球变暖的二氧化碳和其它温室气体的最大生产国。同时，相比包括美国在内的其它国家而言，中国生产每一美元的GDP所消耗的能源更多。但是，从人均角度看，中国使用的资源仍然比其它富裕国家少得多。例如，尽管轿车使用不断增长，中国每天消耗800万桶石油。美国每天消耗2000万桶。换一个说法，拥有近世界四分之一人口的中国仅占世界石油消费量的十分之一不到。美国的人口只有世界人口的百分之五，却消耗全球石油的近四分之一。究竟谁的消耗需求才是更大的问题呢？5。中国的经济增长主要是通过残酷的剥削廉价劳动力。每次一个发展经济开始迅速增长,富裕国家指责的“欺骗”通过保持其工资和汇率人为压低。但这不是欺骗,这是一个自然发展阶段即将结束,在每个国家,它将在中国。中国已经在很大程度上与其他经济体现在我们认为成熟和负责任的成功故事包括日本、韩国和台湾。这些国家大量投资于基础设施和教育,并迅速把他们从生产率较低的工人工作在农村,在城市工作更有效率。当农村劳动力充足,工资低,但他们很快在这些剩余工人加入了城市劳动力。中国是打击,现货现在:许多年轻人进入劳动力年龄(15 - 24)预计下降三分之一在接下来的12年。年轻的工人越来越少,工资只会涨不会跌。这已经发生了:上个月,广东省(中国的主要出口中心)上调最低工资标准上调20%。中国仍然有大量的工人从乡村迁往城市,但超低价的时代中国的劳动力会很快消失。Why do we fear a rising china为什么我们害怕一个崛起的中国 10526阅读 45赞 21评论 Its hard to argue that the rise of China, taken on the whole, is anything but good for the global economy. New wealth for Chinas 1.3 billion people means 1.3 billion more people who can buy stuff from the rest of the world,creating jobsfrom American research labs to Japanese industrial zones to Brazilian mines. A global economy no longer solely dependent on the U.S. consumer for growth is potentially more stable and prosperous.总体上讲，中国的崛起对全球经济推动作用是毋庸置疑的。13亿中国人所拥有的新财富意味着这个世界又增加了一股由13亿人构成的巨大购买力。从美国实验室到日本的工业区再到巴西的矿山，中国正为世界创造着无数的就业机会。不再单单依靠美国消费者来拉动增长的世界经济将会变得更加的稳定和繁荣。 Yet few people see China that way. Many dont acknowledge Chinas positive role in the world economy at all. Instead, they focus on the competition China has created, especially for the developed world, or the jobs many believe China has “stolen.” However, even those who realize, or even directly benefit from, Chinas advance still cant but feel uneasy about that advance. But why is that? Why do we fear a rising China in a way we dont a rising India? Or why is an economically powerful China less acceptable than, for example, a stronger Europe?然而很少有人以这种方式看待中国。很多人根本不承认中国在世界经济中所起的积极作用。相反，他们更关注于中国给世界，尤其是给发达国家带来的竞争，很多人认为中国偷走了他们的就业机会。但是，即便是那些认识到这一点，甚至是直接从中国发展中受益的人也依旧对中国的进步感到很不安。这是为什么呢？为什么我们不是害怕一个日益崛起的印度，而是去害怕一个崛起的中国？ 为什么我们可以接受一个经济上更加强大的欧洲，却不能接受一个经济较欧洲稍弱的中国呢？ The conflicting emotions many have about Chinas rise are the subject of my latestTIME magazine story, focused on Australias relationship with the Middle Kingdom. Whats happening Down Under is a glimpse into the future for all of us. And for me, reporting there got me thinking about why so many of us and not just in the West, but out here in Asia as well are having so much trouble coming to terms with the idea of China as a superpower.很多人对中国崛起都持着一种矛盾的情感，这正是我最新一期的时代杂志故事的主题，这本杂志侧重于描述澳大利亚与这个“中央王朝”的关系。在澳大利亚发生的事就是我们对未来的一种预见。对于我，在当地报道的那段时间里我一直在思考一个问题：为什么我们 不仅仅包括西方人，很多亚洲人也是如此 就这么难对中国作为超级大国这一想法达成共识。 There are few countries in the world that have benefited more from Chinas rapid economic growth than Australia. The boom in exports Australia has enjoyed due to surging Chinese demand, especially for raw materials, is a key reason perhaps the determining factor why the country avoided a recession after the 2008 financial crisis. Trade with China is also spurring investment and creating jobs. But simultaneously, Australians are becoming uncomfortable about their growing relationship with China. They fret that the economy is becoming too dependent on China for its growth. They worry China will use its economic leverage to put political pressure on the country, or employ its growing economic power to become a strategic threat. They dont much care for Chinese companies buying Australian assets. Australians worry that what helps their wallets hurts their country politically and strategically, and the more powerful China gets, the bigger that potential danger. Hugh White, head of the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, explained the sentiment to me this way: “As China keeps growing strong enough to fulfill Australians economic aspirations, it grows more powerful and undermines U.S. primacy and our strategic aspirations. People are conscious that with the benefits we get from Chinese growth, there is a certain degree of vulnerability.”这个世界上极少有国家能像澳大利亚那样从快速发展的中国获得如此多的利益。不断飙升的中国需求让澳大利亚的出口，特别是原材料出口，享受着长期的繁荣。这也是为什么这个国家在2008 年金融危机后的避免了经济衰退的关键原因，甚至说是决定性的原因。与中国的贸易也促进了投资，创造就业机会。但同时，澳大利亚人却对日益增进中澳关系感到不安。他们担心经济增长会过于依赖中国。他们也担心中国会利用其经济影响力对自己的国家施加政治压力或者把其日益增强的经济实力变成一种战略威胁。他们不太喜欢来澳大利亚购买资产的中国公司。澳大利亚人担心在经济上帮助了他们的中国会在政治上和战略上伤害到他们。中国越强大，潜在的危险也就越大。澳大利亚国立大学战略与防御研究中心主任休怀特向我讲述了他的观点：发展的中国将强大到足以满足澳大利亚的经济愿望，他将变得更强大，强大到可以动摇美国的霸主地位和我们的战略愿望。人们意识当自己从中国经济增长中获益的同时，也得到了某种程度的脆弱性。 I think many of us around the w