Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress(英文版)(ppt 67页).ppt

PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongress StephenJ GirskyJanuary2004 Disclosures AnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport StephenJ Girsky ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanley Co Incorporated MorganStanley AsofNovember28 2003 MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1 ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinthisreport Delphi GeneralMotors GoodyearTire Rubber JohnsonControls MagnaIntlInc TBCandTowerAutomotive Withinthelast12months MorganStanleymanagedorco managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesofDaimlerChryslerAG Delphi Ford GeneralMotors StandardMotorProductsandTenneco Withinthelast12months MorganStanley MorganStanleyoranaffiliatehasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology AmericanAxleandMfg BorgWarnerInc DaimlerChryslerAG Delphi Ford GeneralMotors StandardMotorProducts SuperiorIndustries Tenneco TowerAutomotiveandVisteonCorporation Inthenext3months MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology AmericanAxleandMfg ArvinMeritor AutoNation BorgWarnerInc DaimlerChryslerAG DanaCorp Delphi Ford GeneralMotors GenuinePartsCo GoodyearTire Rubber JohnsonControls LearCorp LithiaMotors MagnaIntlInc StandardMotorProducts SuperiorIndustries Tenneco TowerAutomotive UnitedAutoGroupandVisteonCorporation Theresearchanalysts strategist orresearchassociatesprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationoftheresearchreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors includingqualityofresearch investorclientfeedback stockpicking competitivefactors firmrevenuesandinvestmentbankingrevenues MorganStanley Co IncorporatedmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAftermarketTechnology Delphi DuraAutomotive Ford GeneralMotors MagnaIntl TBCandTowerAutomotive GlobalStockRatingsDistribution asofDecember31 2003 Continued Disclosures DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings Fordisclosurepurposes inaccordancewithNASDandNYSErequirements wenotethatOverweight ourmostpositivestockrating mostcloselycorrespondstoabuyrecommendation Equal weightandUnderweightmostcloselycorrespondtoneutralandsellrecommendations respectively However Overweight Equal weight andUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy neutral andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings seedefinitionsbelow Aninvestor sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances suchastheinvestor sexistingholdings andotherconsiderations InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyoranaffiliatereceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months AnalystStockRatingsOverweight OorOver Thestock stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst sindustry orindustryteam s coverageuniverse onarisk adjustedbasisoverthenext12 18months Equal weight EorEqual Thestock stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst sindustry orindustryteam s coverageuniverse onarisk adjustedbasisoverthenext12 18months Underweight UorUnder Thestock stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst sindustry orindustryteam s coverageuniverse onarisk adjustedbasis overthenext12 18months Morevolatile V Weestimatethatthisstockhasmorethana25 chanceofapricemove upordown ofmorethan25 inamonth basedonaquantitativeassessmentofhistoricaldata orintheanalyst sview itislikelytobecomemateriallymorevolatileoverthenext1 12monthscomparedwiththepastthreeyears Stockswithlessthanoneyearoftradinghistoryareautomaticallyratedasmorevolatile unlessotherwisenoted Wenotethatsecuritiesthatwedonotcurrentlyconsider morevolatile canstillperforminthatmanner Unlessotherwisespecified thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinthisreportis12to18months RatingspriortoMarch18 2002 SB StrongBuy OP Outperform N Neutral UP Underperform Fordefinitions Disclosures MorganStanleyisinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthisreport Thesebusinessesincludespecializedtrading riskarbitrageandotherproprietarytrading fundmanagement investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking MorganStanleymakeseveryefforttousereliable comprehensiveinformation butwemakenorepresentationthatitisaccurateorcomplete Wehavenoobligationtotellyouwhenopinionsorinformationinthisreportchangeapartfromwhenweintendtodiscontinueresearchcoverageofsubjectcompany ReportspreparedbyMorganStanleyresearchpersonnelarebasedonpublicinformation Factsandviewspresentedinthisreporthavenotbeenreviewedby andmaynotreflectinformationknownto professionalsinotherMorganStanleybusinessareas includinginvestmentbankingpersonnel Thevalueofandincomefromyourinvestmentsmayvarybecauseofchangesininterestratesorforeignexchangerates securitiespricesormarketindexes operationalorfinancialconditionsofcompaniesorotherfactors Theremaybetimelimitationsontheexerciseofoptionsorotherrightsinyoursecuritiestransactions Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance Estimatesoffutureperformancearebasedonassumptionsthatmaynotberealized ThispublicationisdisseminatedinJapanbyMorganStanleyJapanLimitedand orMorganStanleyNipponSecuritiesLimited inSingaporebyorganStanleyDeanWitterAsia Singapore Pte regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore inAustraliabyMorganStanleyDeanWitterAustraliaLimitedA B N 67003734576 alicenseddealer whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents incertainprovincesofCanadabyMorganStanleyCanadaLimited whichhasapprovedof andhasagreedtotakeresponsibilityfor thecontentsofthispublicationinCanada inSpainbyMorganStanley S V S A aMorganStanleygroupcompany whichissupervisedbytheSpanishSecuritiesMarketsCommission CNMV andstatesthatthisdocumenthasbeenwrittenanddistributedinaccordancewiththerulesofconductapplicabletofinancialresearchasestablishedunderSpanishregulations intheUnitedStatesbyMorganStanleyandintheUnitedKingdom thispublicationisapprovedbyMorganStanley Co InternationalLimited solelyforthepurposesofsection21oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000 PrivateU K investorsshouldobtaintheadviceoftheirMorganStanley Co InternationalLimitedrepresentativeabouttheinvestmentconcerned Thetrademarksandservicemarkscontainedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners Third partydataprovidersmakenowarrantiesorrepresentationsofanykindrelatingtotheaccuracy completeness ortimelinessofthedatatheyprovideandshallnothaveliabilityforanydamagesofanykindrelatingtosuchdata TheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard GICS wasdevelopedbyandistheexclusivepropertyofMSCIandS P Thisreportoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofMorganStanley Additionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest Overview AutoOutlook Sameproblems LessofthemGlobalDilemma Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult Weakerdollarcouldlevelprovidesomeoffset Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearnings BigThreeopportunity Actualqualityisbetterthanperceivedquality GlobalLightVehicleSales SlowGrowth CAGR1 2 Source LMC J D Power MorganStanleyResearch GlobalSalesForecasts 2003 2004 Source GlobalInsight MorganStanleyResearch NoteforecastsarederivedfromGlobalInsight U S Sales 16 7mmUnitsFY03E16 8mmUnitsFY04E Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch JapaneseSAAR 5 6mmUnitsFY03E5 7mmUnitsFY04E Source MorganStanleyResearch WesternEuropeanSAAR 14 1mmFY03E14 2mmFY04E Source MorganStanleyResearch GlobalExcessCapacityat25 30 or20mmunits Source Autofacts MorganStanleyResearch CapEx D AFY2003E OEMsSpendingforGrowth Source Companydata MorganStanleyResearch Adjustedtofitscale ZeroSumGame GlobalDilemma Mostparticipantsarespendingforgrowth yettheindustrydoesnotgrow Slowgrowth excesscapacitysuggestdeflation revenuepressuresarelikelytocontinue Noteverybodycanbeawinner Winnerswillbelowcostproducerswhodeliveragoodproductthatconsumersarewillingtopayfor ModestDemandGrowth Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery Autosalesdidnotweakenmateriallyinthemostrecentrecessionandthus significantpent updemandwasnevercreated Thenumberofoff leasevehiclesisfallingsharply fewerconsumersarebeingforcedbacktoadealertobuyorleaseanewvehicle Extendedfinancingtermsarelikelytoprolongvehicleturnover Economicconditionsappearmixed LightVehicleSalesTrendLineDemand Source MorganStanleyResearch LightVehicleSalesCycle TroughtoTrough Source R L Polk GlobalInsight MorganStanleyResearch WeightedMedianAgeofaVehiclevs Sales 1YearLeadCorrelation77 6 Source Polk MorganStanleyResearch OffLeaseVehiclesBegintoDecline Source Manheim MorganStanleyResearch FewerConsumersBeingForcedBacktotheDealerships AverageMaturityofVehicleLoans months Source FederalReserveBoard MorganStanleyResearch TakingLongertoEstablishConsumerEquity Source FRB MorganStanleyResearch EconomicConditions Betterthantheywere butstillnotrobust Source CPI MorganStanleyResearch AffordabilityNear25YearBest NumberofWeeksofIncometoPurchaseaVehicle Source FRB MorganStanleyResearch IntenseCompetition Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult Capacitygrowthtocontinuein2004 Pricingislikelytoremaindifficultalthoughaweakdollarmayprovideamodestoffset Marketsharepressurestocontinueaswell NACapacityAdditions DespiteFlatSlsOutlook Source Companydata MorganStanleyResearch ExcessCapacity MoreIsOnTheWay Every1 Pt ofMarketShareTranslatesinto 1 0bninProfits853 000UnitsofAddedCapacityis5 1 ofNACapacity or 5bninPretaxProfits NAPretaxProfitBigThree FY03E inMM 1 971 Source MorganStanleyResearchEstimates RevenuePressuresWorstSince1970 s NewCarCPIvs DomesticLightVehicleSales Source CPI MorganStanleyResearch Y YChangeinMonthlyNewCarCPI Source CPI MorganStanleyResearch PriceReductionsPressureManufacturers Every1 DeclineinPricesisWorth 1 0bnatGM 850mmatFord 550mmatDCX Source MorganStanleyResearch BigThreeMarketShareContinuestoSlide 76 0 60 2 61 7 Every1 PointofShareisWorthRoughly 1bninProfit Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch MarketShareWinners Losers FY03 Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch BigThreeShareofSalesbySegment FY 03vs FY 02 Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch USDollarperEuro Jan03 Present Source FactSet MorganStanleyResearch JapaneseYenvs U S Dollar Source FactSet MorganStanleyResearch YentoUSDollarPriceSensitivity YTD03 Source CompanyData MorganStanleyResearchNote IncludesAcura Infiniti Lexus WeakerDollarCouldHelpaLittle Source MorganStanleyResearch GlobalOperatingMarginsFY02 Source Companydata MorganStanleyResearch MorganStanleyEstimates ExcludingPension OPEBExpensefortheBigThree PorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat 16 4 10 6 8 9 8 4 8 1 6 1 5 7 5 0 4 7 4 0 3 8 1 7 1 8 6 2 HigherRatesCouldbeaNegative Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearningsExtendedtermssuggestlongerreplacementrates Every1 increaseinfinancingrateson5 yearloansisworth 730 750pervehicle AutoFinanceTerms Fall2001vs Now Source FRB MorganStanleyResearch GMAC FMCCBorrowingCosts Source FRB MorganStanleyResearch Big3Opportunity ActualQualityisBetterthanPerceivedQuality Source JDPower CNW MorganStanleyResearch TheBigThree Positives Negatives EachCompanyFacesUniqueChallenges GMhasoperationalmomentumandhasmadesignificantstridesrelativetoitsfixedlegacycosts Ford sshareislikelytoremainunderpressure Whileearningsandcostcuttinghavebeenstrong cashflowneedstocatchup DCXcontinuestostrugglewithitsproductline Qualityissues bothperceived Chrysler andactual Mercedes continuetolinger BigThreeRelativeStockPerformance 2003 Source FactSet MorganStanleyResearch GeneralMotors GMstillappearstohaveavariablecostadvantagevs F DCXandafixedcostdisadvantage GM saggressivefundingofpensionandhealthcarehavehelpedtonarrowthefixedcostdisadvantage SignificantnewproductlaunchesgiveGMitsbestchanceofgainingshare reducingincentivesinyears GMisgoinginto2004withaboveaverageinventory Financecompanyearningsarelikelytodeclineduetohigherinterestratesandlowermortgagerefinancingactivity GMMarketShare 35 5 28 0 28 4 Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch U S Healthcare PensionCost UnitFY03 Source Companydata MorganStanleyResearch GMPensionFundedStatus 2003Update Source CompanyData MorganStanleyResearch GMHasBuiltInventoryin2003 Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch FinancialServiceEarningsUnlikelytoMatch2003 Source Companydata MorganStanleyResearch GMNew Replacement RedesignedProducts Source CompanyData Ward sAutomotive MorganStanleyResearch FordMotorCompany Earningshaveexceededexpectations Nowcashflowneedstocatchup WiththeexceptionoftheF Series newproductsarelimiteduntilyear end suggestingsharepressureislikelytocontinue InternationalOperations PremierAutoGroupneedtostartpullingtheirweight Stabilityinmanagementranksisimportant FMarketShare Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch Fvs GMCashFlow Source Companyreports MorganStanleyResearch FAutoPre TaxProfit 1999 2004E Source CompanyData MorganStanleyResearch FGeographicPre taxProfit 3Q03vs 3Q02 Source Companyreports MorganStanleyResearch FNew Replacement RedesignedProducts Source CompanyData Ward sAutomotive MorganStanleyResearch FNewProductMonitor Source Autodata MorganStanleyResearch GM FordOutlook WhatTheySay GMexpectsmarketstogrowaroundtheworldandtheirmarketsharetogrowineveryregion Fordexpectsprofitstodecl