欧洲主权债务危机.doc

1楼 发表于 2010-5-1 19:56 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览 |打印 本帖最后由 majer 于 2010-5-6 18:10 编辑 Europes sovereign-debt crisis 欧洲主权债务危机Acropolis now卫城启示录The Greek debt crisis is spreading. Europe needs a bolder, broader solutionand quickly希腊债务危机正在蔓延。欧洲急需更加果敢全面的方案Apr 29th 2010 | From The Economist print editionTHERE comes a moment in many debt crises when events spiral out of control. As panic sets in, bond yields lurch sickeningly upwards and fear spreads to shares and currencies. In September 2008 the failure of once-stellar Lehman Brothers almost brought down the worlds banking system. A decade earlier, Russias chaotic default on its sovereign debt rocked the credit markets, felling Long Term Capital Management, a hugely profitable American hedge fund. When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion. 许多债务危机都发展到了事态失控的一刻。随着恐慌的出现，债券收益率陡然暴涨，股市和汇市随之惊慌一片。2008年9月，曾经的明星投行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的倒闭几乎将整个世界银行体系拖下水。1998年，俄罗斯混乱的主权债务违约引发信贷市场震荡，摧垮了盈利能力很强的美国对冲基金长期资本公司（Long Term Capital Management）。当不可思议突然变成无法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飙突进，你不可能独善其身。The Greek crisisor more properly Europes sovereign-debt crisislooks dangerously close to that (see article). Even as negotiators from the European Union and the IMF are haggling with the Greek government over an ever-growing bail-out package, the yield on Greek debt has ballooned: two-year bonds soared towards 20% this week. Portugals borrowing costs jumped. Spains debt was downgraded, along with Portugals and Greeces, and Italy came worryingly close to a failed debt auction. European stockmarkets have slumped and the euro itself fell to its lowest level in a year against the dollar. 希腊危机更确切地说是欧洲主权债务危机看起来已与此近在咫尺矣。就在希腊政府与欧盟（European Union）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）就不断增长的救援计划讨价还价之时，希腊债券的收益率已经一飞冲天：2年期债券收益率本周朝着20%飙涨。葡萄牙的借贷成本也有所跳涨。西班牙紧步希葡两国后尘，遭遇债务评级下调，意大利则正为债券走向流拍而忧心忡忡。欧洲股市跳水，而欧元对美元汇率则跌至一年以来最低点。The road into Hades堕入地狱It will strike some as mystifying that a small, peripheral economy should suddenly threaten the worlds biggest economic area. Yet, though it is only 2.6% of euro-zone GDP, Greece sounds three warnings that reach far beyond its borders.一个小小的外围经济体能在一夜之间威胁到全球最大的经济区域，这看起来有点不可思议。然而，尽管GDP只占整个欧元区的2.6%，希腊身上至少有三点警示影响远远超出了国界。The first is economic. Greece has become a symbol of government indebtedness. This crisis began last October when its new government admitted that its predecessor had falsified the national accounts. It is labouring under a budget deficit of 13.6% and a stock of debt equal to 115% of GDP. It cannot grow out of trouble because of fiscal retrenchment and its lack of export prowess. It cannot devalue, because it is in the euro zone. And yet its people seem unwilling to endure the cuts in wages and services needed to make the economy competitive. In short, Greece looks bust.首先是经济。希腊是政府债务过重的典型。此次危机之肇始在去年10月，新任政府承认前任对国民账户做了手脚，自己所接手的是占GDP13.6%的财政赤字和115%的债务存量。由于财政支出已经削减，加上出口缺乏竞争力，新政府无法带领希腊走出困境。由于希腊使用欧元，因而无法采取货币贬值措施。而希腊人民似乎也不愿为提升国家竞争力而忍受工资及公共服务缩水。简言之，希腊看上去要破产。Few, if any, European countries suffer from all of Greeces ills, but many scare investors. Portugal has a high budget deficit and is chronically uncompetitive. Spain has a low stock of debt, but it seems unable to restructure its economy. So too Italy, which is heavily indebted to boot. Non-euro-zone Britain has let its currency fall, but its budget deficit is unnerving.欧洲没有哪个国家像希腊那样问题多多，但令投资者深感不安的却不少。葡萄牙预算赤字水平很高且长期缺乏竞争力。西班牙虽然债务存量很低，但似乎无法重组其经济结构。意大利的情况和西班牙差不多，而且欧洲之靴已深深地踩入了债务泥淖之中。不属欧元区的英国虽已将英镑贬值，但其预算赤字也令人担忧。The second lesson is political. Two weeks ago, having concluded that an eventual Greek restructuring was all but inevitable, we said Europes leaders had “three years to save the euro”. We presumed that they would quickly get a proposed 45 billion ($60 billion) deal to stave off an imminent and chaotic Greek default, buying time for an orderly rescheduling and for the other weak economies to begin overdue structural reforms. We overestimated their common sense.其次是政治。两周前，本刊认为希腊最终难逃重组的命运，而欧洲领导人有“三年时间来拯救欧元”。我们推测他们将迅速提出一个450亿欧元的计划，以避免立刻发生混乱的希腊违约，从而为希腊有序地进行债务重新安排、以及其他疲弱经济体进行亡羊补牢的结构改革赢得时间。我们高估了他们的共识。The chief culprit is Germany. All along, it has tried to have it every wayto back Greece, but to punish it for its mistakes; to support the Greek economy, but not to spend any money doing so; to treat this as just a Greek problem, when German banks and German citizens, who lend to Greece, stand to lose money too. German voters do not favour aiding Greece. But rather than explain to them why it is in Germanys interest, the chancellor, Angela Merkel, has run scared of upsetting them before a big regional election on May 9th. 德国是主要障碍。它始终坚持多手抓，多手都要硬既要援助希腊，又要求希腊为其错误受到惩罚；既要支持希腊的经济，又不愿意为此支出；将此视为仅是希腊的问题，而不顾德国银行和德国人民作为希腊的贷款人也会因此受到损失。德国选民不支持援助希腊。总理默克尔也未能向选民解释援助行动符合德国利益，唯恐在5月9日地方大选即将到来之际将其惹恼。Playing for time has backfired. Now the mooted rescue plan has climbed above 100 billion because no private money is available. The longer euro-zone governments dither, the more lenders doubt whether their promises to save Greece are worth anything. Each time politicians blame “speculators” (see article), investors wonder if they understand how bad things are (or indeed that investors have a choice). Euro-zone leaders initially refused to seek IMF help because it would be humiliating. Their ineptitude has done far more than their eventual decision to call in the IMF to damage the euro.当断不断，必受其害。目前，讨论中的救援计划已膨胀至1000亿欧元以上，因为没有私人资金愿意参与其中。欧元区各国踯躅越久，就有越多贷款人对其承诺拯救希腊的可靠性产生怀疑。政客每一次对“投机者”的指责都令投资者都怀疑他们究竟是否明白事情有多糟糕（或者明白投资者可是有选择的）。欧元区领导人起先拒绝向IMF寻求帮助，认为此举令其蒙羞。如此举措失当对欧元造成的伤害高出最终求助IMF之决定远甚。This political and economic failure leads to the third Greek warning: that contagion can spread through a large number of routes. A run on Greek banks is possible. So is a “sudden stop” of capital to other weaker euro-zone countries. Firms and banks in Spain and Portugal could find themselves shut out of global capital markets, as investors jitters spread from sovereign debt. Europes inter-bank market could seize up, unsure which banks would be hit by sovereign defaults. Even Britain could suffer, especially if the May 6th election is indecisive.第三点警示由政治和经济失策共同导致： 危机之传染可以通过多个扩散途径。希腊银行可能发生挤兑。流向其他欧元区较弱国家的资本也可能“突然断流”。随着源自主权债务的投资者紧张情绪逐渐蔓延，西班牙和葡萄牙的公司和银行可能将发现自己被排除在全球资本市场之外。由于无法弄清哪些银行会受到主权债务违约的冲击，欧洲银行间市场可能陷入停顿。甚至英国也可能难逃牵连，特别是若5月6日的选举不能产生决定性结果的话。What then is to be done? The mounting crisisand the fact that Greece will almost certainly not pay everybody back on timewill renew some calls to abandon it. That would spell chaos for Greece, European banks and other European countries: the effect would indeed be Lehman-like. Hence the necessity, even at this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries. The priority for European policymakers is to do the same as governments eventually did with the banks: to get ahead of the crisis and to convince investors that they will spend whatever is necessary.那么人们可以做什么呢？不断恶化的危机以及希腊几乎肯定无法按时偿付全部债权人之事实会让任其自生自灭的声音重现。这意味着希腊、欧洲银行、欧洲各国都将陷入混乱：其影响正如初雷曼兄弟之倒闭。因此，即使事态已发展到当前阶段，显示金融力量仍是绝对必要的，这与在希腊与其他摇摇欲坠的欧洲国家之间建立一道防火墙息息相关。欧洲政策制定者的当务之急与政府在雷曼兄弟倒闭时对银行的最终做法完全一样：先危机之动而动，并使投资者相信其在必要之时绝对不会有所吝惜。and the expensive way back回头之路代价沉重The economics starts with the politics. Europe will not stem this crisis unless its decision-making apparatus is overhauled and Germany radically changes its tune. Mrs Merkel needs to go on German television and explain to her people what is at stakelaying out how much Germany has gained from the euro and what it has to lose from a cascade of chaotic sovereign defaults. Germans need to understand the risks to their banking system and their prosperity. They need to understand that stemming Greeces debt crisis is less an act of charity than of self-interest. However unfair it seemsand the frugal Germans are as furious about the profligate Greeks as the rest of the world was about bankersa bail-out is justifiable on the same logic: doing nothing would cost them even more. 经济随政治之动而动。若决策机制不能彻底改善，或者德国的态度不能有根本转变，欧洲就无力阻挡此次危机。默克尔应该通过电视向其人民分清利害辨明德国已从欧元中得到获益几多，又将在这一连串混乱的主权违约中损失几何。德国人民需要明白其银行体系和国家繁荣面临何种风险。他们需要明白阻止希腊债务危机并非做善事，而是为自己着想。不论多不公平勤俭节约的德国人民对骄奢淫逸的希腊人出离愤怒，正如世界人民对银行家出离愤怒一样同理可证救助希腊正是明智之举：什么都不做只会令他们损失更重。The resolve cannot stop at Germanys borders. Financial markets have no idea who is in charge. Europes Byzantine decision-making structure does not help but Germany needs to ensure that decisions are reached fast, that Europe speaks with one voiceand that co-ordination with the IMF is smooth. As a way to convince financial markets that the political weather has changed, the euro zone should set up a single crisis-management committee, with the power to take decisions.德国不应该成为救助决心的障碍。金融市场无法决定应该由谁出头。欧洲的拜占庭式决策结构于事无补，但德国需要确保决策迅速做出，确保欧洲以一个声音说话并确保以与IMF精诚合作。为使金融市场相信欧洲政治风向已有所变动，欧元区应该成立一个单一的危机管理委员会来统领决策权。Political resolve wont work unless the underlying economics make sense. The first test of this is the Greek package. In return for fiscal and structural adjustments that give the economy a hope of stabilising its debts, this must provide enough money to prevent a forced default. Up to 150 billion may be needed over the next three yearsbetter to err by offering too much. But the firebreak between Greece and the other embattled sovereigns of the euro zone is even more important. In economic terms, that should not be too hard to justify. Despite their problems, no country other than Greece is manifestly bust. Portugal is in the greatest danger, but it has a better history of fiscal adjustment which, under plausible assumptions, could allow its debt to stabilise at a manageable level. Spain and Italy could be made insolvent by a long period of high interest rates. But none has the near-inevitability of Greece. 政治决心能否凑效取决于救援方案是否符合经济原理。第一个考验是希腊的救援计划。若希腊能做出财政和结构调整以重燃稳固债务之希望，作为回报，就必须为其提供足够的资金以防止被迫违约。今后三年所需资金可能高达1500亿欧元宁可失之慷慨。但更重要的考验是在希腊和其他陷入困境的欧元区国家之间建立隔火带。从经济的角度看，这很容易理解。那些国家尽管各有各的问题，但没有一个像希腊那样在劫难逃。葡萄牙的情况是最危险的，但有着良好的财政调整历史记录，因此，在一些合理假设条件下，其债务或能在一个可控水平上稳固下来。西班牙和意大利尽管可能在长时期的高利率下走向破产，但都不像希腊那样不可挽回。Europes policymakers must make those distinctions clearer. The vulnerable economies must step up the reforms they need to rein in deficits and boost growth. Portugal, especially, needs action. The European Central Bank should demonstrate that it has the tools to maintain liquidity even if there is panic. Euro-zone governments should pre-emptively create inter-governmental liquidity lines. Thanks to extraordinary incompetence, Europes leaders have almost ensured that the Greek rescue failed before it began. They are paying for that today. 欧洲决策者需要分清其中的差别。疲弱经济体必须加快所需改革的步伐以控制赤字并刺激增长。葡萄牙尤其需要采取行动。欧洲央行必须证明，即使是在恐慌产生的情况下，它仍拥有维持流动性的工具。欧元区各国政府必须未雨绸缪，建立政府间流动性渠道。由于欧洲领导人举措严重失当，救助希腊的行动在开始之前便已几乎注定失败。现在他们正在为此付出代价。关于标题：有个连续剧叫Acropolis now，但是搜不到梗概，不知道和内容有没有联系，也不知道该剧的标准译名。不过有部电影叫Apocalypse Now，中文名现代启示录，内容跟本文标题还算贴切，故采纳之。为了保留“卫城”，只好把“现代”拿掉。 收藏0 分享0 0 0 sometimes naive3楼 发表于 2010-5-3 09:25 |只看该作者 Harry1028：Few, if any, European countries suffer from all of Greeces ills, but many scare investors.欧洲没有哪个国家像希腊那样有如此之多的问题，但有多个国家令投资者感到不安。=欧洲几乎没有哪个国家像希腊那样问题多多，但令投资者深感不安的却不少。Hence the necessity, even at this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries.因此，即使事态已发展到当前阶段，显示金融力量仍是绝对必要的，这与在希腊与其他摇摇欲坠的欧洲国家之间建立一道防火墙息息相关。=因此，即使事态已发展到当前阶段，显示能够在希腊与其他摇摇欲坠的欧洲国家之间建立一道坚固防火墙的金融实力是尤为必要的。（回到题目，这个firewall大概就该像曾经的Apocalypse吧，真是“雅典卫城今安在”，咳咳）When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion. 当不可思议突然变成无法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飙突进，你不可能独善其身。=当不可思议的事情突然变成无法避免，若无法控制这种突变，经济危机就爆发了。Contagion: The spreading of an economic crisis from one geographical area to another. 经济危机点评回复 引用 举报 返回顶部 Somers 发短消息 加为好友 Somers 当前在线 积累185 点现金1332 GBP本周之星0 次奖励译文0 次在线时间1287 小时最后登录2011-4-5阅读权限100主题31精华1帖子1190积分113注册时间2009-12-13原创译作34 篇版主UID82064帖子1190积分113注册时间2009-12-13原创译作34 篇4楼 发表于 2010-5-3 09:27 |只看该作者 “和女儿一起学英语”：“Apocalypse Now，中文名现代启示录，内容跟本文标题还算贴切”：这片是科波拉的，背景是越战。感觉是引希波战争的典故。神谕说，只有木墙才能抵挡波斯人，大多数人认为“木墙”是卫城外围的木制栅栏，那个谁谁谁（这帮人名字我一个都记不住）力排众议，指出“木墙”是海军的隐喻。大概翻译成“岌岌可危的卫城”稍好？点评回复 引用 举报 返回顶部 shirley11201 发短消息 加为好友 shirley11201 当前离线 积累2 点现金204 GBP本周之星0 次奖励译文0 次在线时间95 小时最后登录2011-2-14阅读权限10主题7精华0帖子50积分17注册时间2008-5-3原创译作10 篇经济学人UID39106帖子50积分17注册时间2008-5-3原创译作10 篇5楼 发表于 2010-5-3 18:35 |只看该作者 So too Italy, which is heavily indebted to boot. 这个boot指的是意大利的那个靴子形的国土吗？深陷入靴子/自己的债务危机中。是的话这里写的就太妙啦！点评回复 引用 举报 返回顶部 levp 发短消息 加为好友 levp 当前离线 积累0 点现金0 GBP本周之星0 次奖励译文0 次在线时间0 小时最后登录2010-5-4阅读权限10主题0精华0帖子1积分0注册时间2010-5-3原创译作0 篇新人新人, 积分 0, 距离下一级还需 2 积分 UID100836帖子1积分0注册时间2010-5-3原创译作0 篇6楼 发表于 2010-5-3 23:23 |只看该作者 深陷入靴子/自己的债务危机中。是的话这里写的就太妙啦 深有体会点评回复 引用 举报 返回顶部 majer 发短消息 加为好友 majer 当前离线 积累4 点现金1295 GBP本周之星0 次奖励译文0 次在线时间1221 小时最后登录2011-4-4阅读权限100主题146精华1帖子756积分237注册时间2007-6-8原创译作162 篇版主UID13699帖子756积分237注册时间2007-6-8原创译作162 篇7楼 发表于 2010-5-3 23:37 |只看该作者 回复 3# Somers 改正的地方就不说了，就说没改的地方Hence the necessity, even at this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries.因此，即使事态已发展到当前阶段，显示金融力量仍是绝对必要的，这与在希腊与其他摇摇欲坠的欧洲国家之间建立一道防火墙息息相关。 因此，即使事态已发展到当前阶段，显示能够在希腊与其他摇摇欲坠的欧洲国家之间建立一道坚固防火墙的金融实力是尤为必要的。 我在这里倾向于link修饰show。因为这时候要的是一种姿态，使人能够重振信心。翻译的时候耍了个小聪明，我这样说，link既可以修饰show，也可以修饰forece。（不过我觉得要是修饰force的话没必要中间加个逗号）When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion.当不可思议突然变成无法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飙突进，你不可能独善其身。 当不可思议的事情突然变成无法避免，若无法控制这种突变，经济危机就爆发了。 Con