趋向在美国食品供应链子.ppt

TrendsintheU S FoodSupplyChainDr KennethC ClaytonUSDAAgriculturalMarketingServiceWorldUnionofWholesaleMarketsSeptember19 2005 TrendsintheU S FoodSupplyChainIntroduction OverviewofTraditional Competitive SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearOverviewofEmerging Partnership SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofTodayReasonsforChange ChannelBlurringChangingConsumerPreferencesRetailDifferentiationRetailConcentrationGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceTechnologicalCapabilitiesChangingStructureofProductionAgriculture TheSupplyChainofYesteryear Sources BrianSilbermann PMA March2005Dr DonBowersox MichiganStateUniversity Competitive StructureTraditionalsupermarketsdominatedretailmarketplaceManyshipperssoldtomanybuyersinwholesaleandretailmarkets nolargebuyersdrovethemarketBuyerstendedtobemoretransactionandprice oriented notopentocooperativepartnershipswithsuppliersDailysalestransactionsweretypical Newtechnology equaledafaxmachineandPLUstickers Anticipatory supplychainsysteminplacewheresuppliersForecastproductsalesBuythecomponentsandmanufacturetheproductsWarehousetheproductsSelltheproductsproducedDelivertheproductstotheconsumer TheSupplyChainofToday Partnership StructureBuyersseekingmorelong termrelationshipswithsupplierstoensuresteadierpricing supplyavailability greaterqualitycontrolTraditional cultural dividebetweenprocurementandmarketing merchandisingdepartmentsdisappearingaslong termsupplyrelationshipstakeprecedenceovershort termpricenegotiationsTechnologicalcapabilitiesallowsuperiorexchangeofdatabetweenfoodsuppliersandbuyers whichpermitsmoreprecisemonitoringandcalculationsofsalestransactionsanddemandrequirements TheSupplyChainofToday Real time informationexchangepermitsmovementtowardso called responsive businessmodel wherebysuppliersFirstselltheirproductsBuythecomponentsandmaterialsnecessarytoproducetheproductsManufacturetheproductsanddelivertocustomerUnderthefullyresponsivebusinessmodel thereisnoinventory Thesystemworkssoquicklythatretailerscansellproductstoconsumersthattheretailerhasnotevenhadtopayforyet Forfoodproducts growingverticalintegrationofU S productionagriculture includingcommoditiessuchasproduce increaseopportunitiesforstrategicalliancesacrossthesupplychainOccurringagainstbackdropofgrowingdiversityofretailvenueswherefoodproductsaremarketedtoconsumers includingawayfromhome ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurring ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurring Consumersarerejectingtraditionalsupermarketsinfavorofalternativefoodretailoutlets Traditionalgrocerychannelhasexperienceddeclineseveryyearsince1995In2004 theaverageU S householdmade69tripstotraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystores comparedto92tripsin19952004markedthefirstyearthattraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystoresexperiencedlessthan100 householdpenetrationTraditionalgrocerystoresrepresented52 ofthenation sgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004 downfrom81 in1994Shareisforecasttoslipto46 by2009 ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurring Supercenters dollarstoresbiggainersinpastfewyears Supercentershavegainedthemostintermsofnumberofaverageannualshoppingtrips 27persurveyedhouseholdin2004 comparedto15in1999 17 ofsurveyedcustomersnowreportthatsupercentersaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueDollarstoreshavegainedthemostintermsofhouseholdpenetration67 ofsurveyedhouseholdsvisitedadollarstorein2004 comparedto52 in1999Nontraditionalfoodsellers includingsupercenters dollarstores andwholesaleclubs represented32 ofgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004 upfrom9 in1994 expectedtoriseto39 by2009 Sources ProgressiveGrocer April2004FMI May2004 ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurring Direct to consumermarketingoutletsgainingtractionValueofdirect to consumersalesgrew37 between1997and20022 ofsurveyedfoodshoppersnowindicatethatfarmersmarketsaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueFarmersmarketsreportedtohavenearlya4 marketshareoftheorganicfoodmarket Sources OrganicTradeAssociation2004ManufacturersSurvey2002CensusofAgriculture ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferences Theaverageshoppershopsat2 2storeseachweektoobtainalltheiritems andthefactthattheyarewillingtogotodifferentstorestopurchasevariousitemssuggeststhatsupermarketsaremissinganopportunitytocapturemoreconsumerdollarsbydeliveringandcommunicatingagreaterselectionandvaluetotheirshoppers PhilLempert SupermarketGuru 2002 ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferences Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue addedfoodsOrganicfoodsU S salesoforganicfoodgrewfrom 3 5billionin1997toreachmorethan 10billionby2003 4 3billionor42 oftotalorganicsalesin2003consistedofproduceitemsAveragegrowthrateof18 projectedbetween2004 2008 comparedwithgrowthof2 to3 fortheconventionalfoodindustry Source OrganicTradeAssociation ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferences Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue addedfoods continued Locally grownfoodsLargeincreasesindemandforlocalfoodsacrossallrestaurantcategories 73 ofAmericanssayitisimportanttoknowwhetherfoodisgrownorproducedlocallyorregionallyMorethan75 ofconsumerssurveyedin2003insevenMidwesternstatesandthemetropolitanBostonandSeattleareaschose grownlocallybyfamilyfarmers astheir 1choiceforproduceorproducts Sources RoperPublicAffairs IowaStateUniversityTheNationalRestaurantAssociation ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferences Source TrendsinU S ProduceMarketing Dr RobertaCook Univ ofCADavis April2005 basedonACNielsenfigures Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue addedfoods continued Convenience orientedfoodsSalesoffreshcutsaladsatsupermarketsincreasedfrom 197millionin1993to 2 5billionin2003 ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferences Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue addedfoods continued Ready to eat takeoutfoodsManyconsumers whennoteatingout arebringingpreparedmealshome Almostone third 31 saythat atleastonceaweek theyeatmealsathomethatwerenotpreparedathomeCloseto10 saytheybringhometakeoutfoodthreeormoretimeseachweekMoretake outfoodbeingpurchasedatsupermarkets27 oftakeoutfoodpurchasedatsupermarketsin2004 comparedto19 in2003 Source FMI2004Trendsreport ReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiation Consumersarebecomingmorepolarizedandfragmentedasagroup Thedifferencesinproductandshoppingpreferencesbetweenyoungandold richandpoor marriedandsingle Caucasianandethnic urbanandexurban arebecominggreater Theseconsumersarelookingforproductsandservicesthatareauthenticanduniquetotheircommunities DeloitteResearch quotedinProgressiveGrocer Feb 15 2005 ReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiation Inresponsetochangingconsumerdemands retailersarebecomingmorefocusedonspecificmarketsegmentsNewstoreconstructionin2003wasprimarilydrivenbytarget marketfocusedstores Overall 12 6 ofcompaniesthatrespondedtoFMI sstoredevelopmentsurveyoperatedatleastonetarget marketfocusedstore Ofthese 44 4 offeredgourmetformatsandnearlyone thirdofferedHispanic orientedornatural organicformatsThemajorityoperatedsmallerchainsof11to100stores36 4 ofthetarget marketfocusedstoresscheduledtoopeninthenextyearwereHispanic orientedformats 45 5 werenatural organicoutlets and18 2 weregourmetoutlets ReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiation DemandforvarietydrivingexpansionofretailproducedepartmentsStronggrowthinretailproducestockkeepingunits SKUs providescompetitiveadvantagetosuppliers suchasspecialtywholesalers whocandeliverbroadvarietyofproduceitemstoretailbuyers Source FreshTrack2001 CornellUniversity ReasonsforChangeRetailConcentration ReasonsforChangeRetailConcentration DwindlingsupermarketloyaltyleadstosluggishprofitsTotalsalesatU S supermarketsin2004rose4 2 above2003 WhendeflatedbytheFMI ssupermarketpriceindex actualgrowthwasjust0 89 belowtheaverage1 increaseinpopulationIn2003 althoughsalesgrowthatthetoptensupermarketchainsgrew2 7 overallfoodsalesgrowthactuallyincreased5 8 duringthesametimeperiod demonstratingtherelativeweaknessofthetraditionalsupermarketsector Source U S CensusBureau ReasonsforChangeRetailConcentration Consolidationofretailsupermarketscontinuestointensify GrocerySalesMarketShareTopU S FoodRetailers1992 2004 Sources USDA ERS 1992 2003 FMI2004FMI 2004salesstatistics Top20foodretailersinU S responsiblefor68 ofretailgrocerysales 95 ofsupermarketsalesTop4foodretailersinU S responsiblefornearly39 ofgrocerysales 54 ofsupermarketsales ReasonsforChangeRetailConcentration HighlycompetitiveleadingtoaggressivecostsavingandheightenedqualitycontrolthroughoutthesupplychainMorethan80 ofsurveyedretailersrevealedthattheydemandedmoreservicesfromtheirsuppliersthantheydidin199374 ofsurveyedproduceshippersreportedincreaseddemandfromtheirretailbuyers Toppingthelistwere TheprovisionofprivatelabelproductsCategorymanagementservicesElectronicdatainterchangecapabilityGreateremphasisbeingplacedonpreciseinventorymanagementthroughcollaborativerelationships dataexchangewithsuppliers Sources WillardBishopConsulting June2000NationalFoodandAgriculturalPolicyProjectPolicy NFAPP BriefingPaper ArizonaStateUniversity March2001 ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice Away from homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseIn2003 about 949billionworthoffoodwassuppliedbythefoodmarketingsystem Foodservicefacilitiessuppliedabout 445billionofthistotalforon premiseorimmediateconsumption the2ndhighestlevelinrecenthistory 70 ofshopperseattheireveningmealoutatleastonceaweekProduceconsumptionhasbeensignificantlyboostedbytheaway from homemarketPercapitaconsumptionofvegetablesincreasedbyabout25 between1980 82and2000 02 Morethan30 offreshonions freshmarkettomatoes mushrooms sweetpeppersandgarlicareusedinfoodservice Source USDAEconomicResearchService FMI June2004 ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice Away from homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincrease continued ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice Implicationsofaway from homeconsumptiontrendsRapidgrowthinimportanceoffoodservicesegmenttowholesaleindustry1987 8 ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers comparedto38 forretail 1997 21 ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers comparedto35 forretail 2002 Surveyedspecialtyfoodandproducedistributorsreportthatfoodservicecustomersaccountfor45 ofsales2005 Foodserviceshareofspecialtydistributorsalesprojectedtoriseto48 Sources 1987and1997datafromUSDA ERS 2002and2005datafromCornellUniversityCensusofWholesaleTradeFreshTrack2003 Cornell PMA ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice DemandsforservicebyfoodserviceoperatorstemperdesirefordirectprocurementfromgrowersTwo thirdsoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedbyCornellUniversityin2003 andmorethanthree quartersofcasualdiningoperators expecttoincrease theirdirectcontactwithgrower shippers toplanproductionofspecificproduceitems varietiesDespitesignsofinterestinestablishingmoredirectgrowercontact foodserviceoperatorsexpressequalorgreaterpreferencetoreceivingthefollowingservicesfromdistributorsratherthangrower shippers PricequotesMarketreportsAvailabilityof opportunisticbuys PackagecustomizationCost basedanalysisFoodsafetyassuranceQualityinspections Sources CornellUniversity FreshTrack2003 ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodservice Specialtyproducedistributorshavethecompetitiveedgeinmeetingfoodservicedemandsforvariety quality flexibilityLargemajorityofsurveyedfoodserviceoperatorsexpecttoincreasenumberoffresh pre cut and healthy produceitemstheypurchase includingitemsfor centeroftheplate entreesSpecialtydistributorstypicallyhandlemoreproduceSKUsthanbroadlinedistributors whosupplyfoodandnon fooditems 377SKUs onaverage comparedto310forbroadlinedistributors Specialtydistributorsplacemoreemphasisonhandling unique producevarieties pre ripened fruits andtoalesserdegree organicproductsWhenselectingasupplierofpre cutproduce foodserviceoperatorsindicatedthat frequent and flexible deliveryschedulesmatteredmost givingadistinctadvantagetofirmsthatcanprovidethesetailoredservices Sources CornellUniversity FreshTrack2003 ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilities ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilities Newtechnologies suchastheGlobalDataSynchronizationNetwork GDSN allowelectroniccommunicationof real time databetweenfirms facilitatingcategorymanagementandefficientsupplyreplenishmentForproducttracking RadioFrequencyIdentification RFID tagscanprovidemoredetailed accurate andfrequentdatamessagesthanbarcodes ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilities CurrenttechnologicalprioritiesWhensupermarketbuyerswereaskedwhichareaswillyourcompanytestorlaunchaprogramin2005 theyresponded DataSynchronization 28 in2005 comparedto18 in2004RFID 21 in2005 comparedto3 in2004Nearlyhalfoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedin2003alreadyrankedelectronicdatainterchangecapabilitywithsuppliersasanimportantpriority Source 11thAnnualStateoftheIndustry Supermarket