公司理财精要Chap007ppt课件.ppt

7 1 Copyright 2011bytheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved McGraw Hill Irwin IMPORTANT InordertoviewthecorrectcalculatorkeystrokesymbolswithinthisPPT youwillneedtofollowthefontinstallationdirectionsonthisdocument 7 2 KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted 7 3 ChapterOutline 7 1CommonStockValuation7 2SomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocks7 3TheStockMarkets 7 4 CashFlowsforStockholders Ifyouownashareofstock youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflowsDividends cashincomeSelling capitalgains 7 5 OnePeriodExample SupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil Inc Youexpectittopaya 2dividendinoneyearYoubelieveyoucansellthestockfor 14atthattime Yourequireareturnof20 oninvestmentsofthisriskWhatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay 7 6 OnePeriodExample D1 2dividendexpectedinoneyearR 20 P1 14CF1 2 14 16ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflows 7 7 TwoPeriodExample Whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears D1 2 00CF1 2 00D2 2 10P2 14 70Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay CF2 2 10 14 70 16 80 7 8 ThreePeriodExample Whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears D1 2 00CF1 2 00D2 2 10CF2 2 10D3 2 205P3 15 435Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay CF3 2 205 15 435 17 640 7 9 ThreePeriodExampleUsingTIBAII CashFlowWorksheet DisplayYouEnter C000 C012 F011 C022 10 F021 C0317 64 F031 I20 NPV 13 33 CashFlows CF0 0CF1 2 00CF2 2 10CF3 17 64 7 10 DevelopingTheModel YoucouldcontinuetopushbackwhenyouwouldsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividends 7 11 StockValue PVofDividends Howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments 7 12 EstimatingDividendsSpecialCases Constantdividend ZeroGrowthFirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverLikepreferredstockPriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthFirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventually 7 13 ZeroGrowth Dividendsexpectedatregularintervalsforever perpetuityP0 D RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya 0 50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10 withquarterlycompounding Whatistheprice 7 14 ConstantGrowthStock D1 D0 1 g 1D2 D0 1 g 2Dt Dt 1 g t Onewhosedividendsareexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate g D0 DividendJUSTPAIDD1 Dt Expecteddividends 7 15 ProjectedDividends D0 2 00andconstantg 6 D1 D0 1 g 2 1 06 2 12D2 D1 1 g 2 12 1 06 2 2472D3 D2 1 g 2 2472 1 06 2 3820 7 16 DividendGrowthModel GordonGrowthModel 7 17 DGM Example1 SupposeBigD Inc justpaidadividendof 50 Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2 peryear Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15 onassetsofthisrisk howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor D0 0 50g 2 R 15 7 18 DGM Example2 SupposeTBPirates Inc isexpectedtopaya 2dividendinoneyear Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5 peryearandtherequiredreturnis20 whatistheprice D1 2 00g 5 r 20 7 19 StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth g D1 2 R 20 7 20 StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn R D1 2 g 5 7 21 Example7 3GordonGrowthCompany I GordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof 4nextperiodanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6 peryear Therequiredreturnis16 Whatisthecurrentprice 7 22 Example7 3GordonGrowthCompany II Whatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4 7 23 Example7 3GordonGrowthCompany II Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod 50 50 40 1 return 4 return 6 4 40S 50 500 0 6 Thepricegrowsatthesamerateasdividends 7 24 ConstantGrowthModelConditions DividendexpectedtogrowatgforeverStockpriceexpectedtogrowatgforeverExpecteddividendyieldisconstantExpectedcapitalgainsyieldisconstantandequaltogExpectedtotalreturn R mustbe gExpectedtotalreturn R expecteddividendyield DY expectedgrowthrate g dividendyield g 7 25 NonconstantGrowth Supposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20 inoneyearandby15 intwoyears Afterthatdividendswillincreaseatarateof5 peryearindefinitely Ifthelastdividendwas 1andtherequiredreturnis20 whatisthepriceofthestock RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends 7 26 NonconstantGrowth Solution ComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1 1 1 2 1 20D2 1 20 1 15 1 38D3 1 38 1 05 1 449Findtheexpectedfuturepriceatthebeginningoftheconstantgrowthperiod P2 D3 R g 1 449 2 05 9 66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0 1 20 1 2 1 38 9 66 1 2 2 8 67 7 27 Nonconstant Constantgrowth BasicPVofallFutureDividendsFormula DividendGrowthModel 7 28 Nonconstant Constantgrowth 7 29 0 1 0000 0 9583 6 7083 1 2 3 rs 20 8 6667 P0 g 20 g 15 g 5 D0 1 001 201 381 449 1 449 Nonconstantgrowthfollowedbyconstantgrowth 7 30 QuickQuiz Part1 Whatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof 2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15 Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3 peryearbeginningwiththenextdividend Therequiredreturnremainsat15 7 31 UsingtheDGMtoFindR StartwiththeDGM RearrangeandsolveforR 7 32 FindingtheRequiredReturnExample Afirm sstockissellingfor 10 50 Theyjustpaida 1dividendanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5 peryear Whatistherequiredreturn 7 33 FindingtheRequiredReturnExample P0 10 50 D0 1g 5 peryear Whatistherequiredreturn 7 34 FindingtheRequiredReturnExample P0 10 50D0 1g 5 peryearWhatisthedividendyield 1 1 05 10 50 10 Whatisthecapitalgainsyield g 5 DividendCapitalGainsYieldYield 7 35 Table7 1 7 36 FeaturesofCommonStock VotingRightsStockholderselectdirectorsCumulativevotingvs StraightvotingProxyvotingClassesofstockFounders sharesClassAandClassBshares ReturntoQuickQuiz 7 37 FeaturesofCommonStock OtherRightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiverightRightoffirstrefusaltobuynewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired ReturntoQuickQuiz 7 38 DividendCharacteristics DividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmuntildeclaredbytheBoardofDirectorsAfirmcannotgobankruptfornotdeclaringdividendsDividendsandTaxesDividendsarenottaxdeductibleforfirmTaxedasordinaryincomeforindividualsDividendsreceivedbycorporationshaveaminimum70 exclusionfromtaxableincome 7 39 FeaturesofPreferredStock DividendsMustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholdersNotaliabilityofthefirmCanbedeferredindefinitelyMostpreferreddividendsarecumulativeMissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaidPreferredstockgenerallydoesnotcarryvotingrights ReturntoQuickQuiz 7 40 TheStockMarkets Primaryvs SecondaryMarketsPrimary new issuemarketSecondary existingsharestradedamonginvestorsDealersvs BrokersDealer MaintainsaninventorReadytobuyorsellatanytimeThink Usedcardealer Broker BringsbuyersandsellerstogetherThink Realestatebroker 7 41 NewYorkStockExchange NYSE NYSEEuronext merged2007 Members Historically Buyatradinglicense ownaseat CommissionbrokersSpecialistsSuperDOTFloorbrokersFloortraders 7 42 NYSEOperations Operationalgoal attractorderflowNYSESpecialist Assignedbroker dealerEachstockhasoneassignedspecialistAlltradinginthatstockoccursatthe specialist spost Tradingtakesplacebetweencustomerordersplacedwiththespecialistsand thecrowd Crowd commissionandfloorbrokersandtraders 7 43 NASDAQ NASDAQOMX merged2007 Computer basedquotationsystemMultiplemarketmakersElectronicCommunicationsNetworksThreelevelsofinformationLevel1 medianquotes registeredrepresentativesLevel2 viewquotes brokers dealersLevel3 viewandupdatequotes dealersonlyLargeportionoftechnologystocks 7 44 ECNs ElectronicCommunicationsNetworksprovidedirecttradingamonginvestorsDevelopedinlate1990sECNorderstransmittedtoNASDAQObservelivetradingonlineatB 7 45 ReadingStockQuotes Whatinformationisprovidedinthestockquote ClickonthewebsurfertogotoBloombergforcurrentstockquotes 7 46 WorktheWeb Notonlyarestockpricequotesreadilyavailableonline Someonlinetradingsitesdisplaytheir orderbook or limitorderbook liveonline Batstradingisoneofthese FollowthelinkandseecurrentbuyandsellordersforMicrosoft MSFT 7 47 QuickQuiz Part2 Youobserveastockpriceof 18 75 Youexpectadividendgrowthrateof5 andthemostrecentdividendwas 1 50 Whatistherequiredreturn 7 48 QuickQuiz Part2 Whataresomeofthemajorcharacteristicsofcommonstock Slide36andSlide37 Whataresomeofthemajorcharacteristicsofpreferredstoc