财务预警外文文献.doc

Financial risks and its early-warning system1,the description of financial risksBeaver(1996) defines financial risk as:bankruptcy, defaulting cumulative preference share and debt. He thinks that,the deterioration of an enterprise depends on the following factors : payment at maturity; the cash fllow of the enterprise; profit rate to net worth; the capacity of obtaining capital inflow. Also Altman(1968) defines financial risk as a listed company that has been defined to be bankrupt by law. The lack of payment ability which was caused by the technological failure in found management . Generally these troubles are temporary and less important ,and are usually able to remendy , through various methods such as asking for a compromise through consultation ,and put off the the due to pay debts .In a word , if the problems are permanent , the enterprise may have to face the bankruptal liquidation ; however , if the problems are temporary ,the company may have a chance to get out of the tight spot, and turn a loss into a pofit !2,the relationship between financial risks and its early-warning system.Financial risks is not only associated with the companys survival and development , but also the interests of the investors,and the creditors. With the intensive development of Chinas market economy and the rapid development of the capital market, listed companies are threatened by financial risks. Which means that without a precaution system the corporate may get into a tight spot. As a matter of fact , it has become a great concern comprhesively by investors ,creditors, and some monitoring institutions of securities market .The early-warning system is available to for governors to knows more about the causes for financial crisis, so as to prevent financial risks . This early-warning system seems to operate after the symbol of financial risks . On contrary it has already listed all the possibilities of reasons for financial crisis and its monitoring data .It is a precaution system ,which is able to prevent and overcome the risk effectively when it is yet to come . 3,to review a few of the methods for financial risks early-warning system .There is a great range of methods for financial risks early-warning ,including univarlate , Muiriple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Logistic ,Probit and ANN , which are majorly used . Here Id like to introduce two of them .First, UnivarlateUnivarlate a forecasting model ,which decides if an enterprise is faced with bankruptcy or not , based on one specific financial index. However , univarlatehas two significant shortcomings: Firstly, if only one financial index was set to judge , it will easily be decorated by the manager once it was revealed . Secondly, there will be controversies if more than one indexes were set to judge the financial state of a company. Univarlate is comparetively a simple way of early-warning for finance , it can be easily learnt and used , but it is less sensitive. In the prediction over last year Univarlate is of lower accuracy comparing to Muiriple Discriminant Analysis . On the other hand , when it comes to the prediction over the last 2 to 3 years , it can be of a great ability to forecast, which revealed that some financial crisis early began with some financial indexes deterioration .Second, Muiriple Discriminant Analysis (MDA)Muiriple Discriminant Analysis (MDA)，is also called Z Score .It is aimed at working out the variable which differs the most between two groups and dispers the least among the couple of group, through a series of statistical classification techniques,so as to transform the variable identifier into a categorical variable with the least loss of information . In this way, a multi-head linear equation is acquired which can highly improve the predicting accuracy . MDA forms an easy and understandable multi-head linear equation which provide a very high capacity in application. MDA is of high accuracy ,however there are some shortcoming as below: 1, it needs a quite large amount of work. 2, In the prediction over one year, MDA can be quite effective and accurate . But in the prediction over more than one year (generally 2 to 3 years) it wont be so predictable as it dose in the former situation，sometimes even worse than the Univarlate. 3, MDAsticks strictly to a hypothesis which is hardly full filled in reality ,in this way the Muiriple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) is greatly limited when putting into use. 4,Financial early warning system a brief introduction of Financial early warning system Financial early warning system of listed company is a monitoring system, on the basis of enterprise information, by means of financial report forms, operation plans and others financial data of listed company, with the aid of financial analysis methods, such as proportional analysis, mathematical model, distinguishes financial crisis according to signal come from early warning index and lift a warning to the listed company interest related aspects.Financial early warning system arises from America in the very beginning. Overseas security market have been developing for quite a long time, with not only a pretty high frequency of studies of listed company financial early warning, but also a rather mature development. Some research workers have developed many financial early warning models, among which some even become time-tested business softwares, in the light of financial feature of financial crisis company. Overseas success stories indicate, financial early warning system of listed company can correctly forecast and prevent financial crisis for listed company, monitor the quality of listed company and the risk of security market for government manage departments, protect normal rights and interests of investor and creditor, reduce shock of security market and promote the benign development of listed company, which is helpful as regards the security both the economy and society.the necessity of a early-warning system for financial risksWith the acceleration of international economic integration and the establishment and improvement of Chinas socialist market economy system, companies face more intense competitive environment. In the fierce market competition, corporate financial distress can happen at any time, or even bankruptcy. Therefore, the establishment of a viable financial early warning system to guard against financial risk has important practical significance.Financial management，which is the management of capital flow，is an important activity of the enterprise. Through the history of domestic and international business development, corporate management can be seen from the financial crisis。 The establishment and improvement of corporate financial early warning system is of great significance. The so-called corporate financial early warning, is through the daily financial operation of the enterprise for continuous effective monitoring to prevent deterioration of corporate financial losses to creditors and investors.The more sensitive the early-warning system is，the sooner questions will be find and responded back to the business operators and the more effectively it will be to solve problems. The early-warning system will take measures to avoid financial crisis. Therefore, the establishment of financial early warning system is necessary.Compared with overseas security market, Chinese security market got off to a late start, listed company behaviour hasnt enough norms . With the continuous development, mature of security market and listed company in China, there is a larger and larger market demand for financial early warning system, Not only academic circles but also practical circles begin to tighten explore and study financial early warning system of listed company.This thesis will be divided into five chapters as follows to discuss financial early warning system of Chinese listed company, the basic theory of financial early warning system, the status quo and defects of the application and studies of financial early warning system in Chinese listed company, the introduction and enlightenments of the overseas studies of listed company financial early warning system, the authentic proof analysis of applying Z-score model to forecast the financial crisis of Chinese listed company, the suggestions for perfecting financial early warning system of Chinese listed company.In recent years, by reason of the aggravating of external market competition and internal poor management, it is common for companies to fall into financial crisis in the world, some of which even go bankrupt. As for listed companies in China, with the joining into WTO of our country, they encounter challenge of multinational companies abroad. In order to survive and develop, listed companies in China must establish financial early-warning system. It can correctly forecast and prevent financial crisis for listed companies, monitor the quality of listed companies and the risk of security market for government management departments, protect normal rights and interests of investor and creditor, reduce shock of security market and promote the benign development of listed companies, which is helpful as regards the security both the economy and society.In reality, the financial state of listed companies in China is not good overall, examples of which are listed companies whose shares are under special treatment and terminated in the stock market. Until March, 2005, 165 listed company shares are under special treatment and 28 shares are terminated in the stock market. Therefore, establishing financial early-warning system is critical for listed companies in China to survive and develop.财务预警及财务预警系统研究一、财务危机的概念Beaver（1966）将财务危机定义为：破产、拖欠优先股股利和拖欠债务。他认为，一个公司出现财务状况恶化主要取决于如下几个因素：到期应支付的债务额、公司现金流量、资产净利率和获得外部融资能力。Altman（1968）将财务危机定义为进入法定破产的上市公司。由于资金管理技术性失败而引发的支付能力不足，通常是暂时的和比较次要的困难，一般可以采取一定措施加以补救，如通过协商，求得债权人让步，延长偿债期限，或通过资产抵押等借新债还旧债。财务危机是否发生要看这种财务状况问题是永久性的还是暂时性的。如果是永久性的，上市公司可能面临破产清算；如果是暂时性的，上市公司会努力走出困境，并有可能扭亏为盈。二、财务危机与财务预警之间的关系财务危机不仅危及到企业自身的生存与发展，还影响到投资人、债权人和国家的利益。随着我国市场经济体制改革的深化和资本市场的快速发展，上市公司时时遭受着危机的威胁，如果不及时防范，上市公司即有可能陷入困境中。因此，预测上市公司的财务危机成为投资者和债权人及证券市场监督机构广泛关注的课题，具有巨大的实用价值。财务预警有助于管理者了解财务危机产生的诱因，起到有效预防财务危机的功能。财务预警的作用，看似在财务危机征兆出现后才发挥作用，实则在事先已明确了各种可能导致企业财务危机的诱因和监控指标，它是一种先导的预防功能，能使财务危机征兆在其预警信号尚未形成之时，就被有效防治和克服。 三、国内外财务危机预警方法回顾财务预警的方法多种多样，主流的研究方法主要有以下五类：一元判定方法（Univarlate）、多元判定方法（Muiriple Discriminant Analysis，MDA）、多元逻辑（Logistic）回归方法，多元概率比（Probit）回归方法、人工网络（ANN）方法。（一）一元判定方法。一元判定方法是指以某一项财务指标作为判别标准来判断企业是否处于破产状态的预测模型。一元判定方法的缺点是：其一，只重视一个指针的分离能力，如果经理人员知道这个指针，就有可能去粉饰这个指针，以使企业表现出良好的财务状况；其二，如果使用多个指针分别进行判断，这几个指针的分类结果之间可能会产生矛盾，以致无法做出正确判断。一元判定方法虽然方法简单，使用方便，但总体判别精度不高。对前一年的预测，一元判定方法的预测精度明显低于多元方法。不过，一元判定方法在前两年、前三年的预测中也能表现出很强的预测能力，说明一些上市企业的财务困境是从某些财务指标的恶化开始的。（二）多元线性判定方法。多元线性判定方法，又称Z Score方法，其基本原理是通过统计技术筛选出那些在两组间差别尽可能大而在两组内部的离散度最小的变量，从而将多个标志变量在最小信息损失下转换为分类变量，获得能有效提高预测精度的多元线性判别方程。多元线性判别方法判定二元构造的线性方程简单易懂，具有很强的应用能力。多元线性判定方法具有较高的判别精度，但也存在一些缺陷：1,工作量比较大；2,在前一年的预测中，多元线性判定方法的预测精度比较高，但在前两年、前三年的预测中，其预测精度将不如其在对于前一年的预测中的表现，甚至低于一元判别模型；3