生产与作业管理预测培训教程

1、nAAAFntttt.214008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,80048121620242832實際3週9週ntntttAWAWAWF.2211niiW11)(111ttttFAFFntFAMADntt11標準差 =MADMAD25.121MAD = 0.8標準差MADRSFETS 信號軌跡信號軌跡ntttFARSFE1)(預測誤差值的總合預測誤差值的總合月需求預測實際差異RSFE絕對差異絕對差異之和MAD*TSRSFEMAD#11,000950-50-50505050-121,0001,070+70+207012060.3331,0001,100+100+12010022

2、073.31.6441,000960-40+8040260651.251,0001,090+90461,0001,050+50+2205040066.73.3123456信號軌跡月實際大於預測實際小於預測12345678910111205001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500$5,000(12-1)(4,950-750).畫一條看起來似乎切合資料樣本分佈的直線(用尺即可)決定 截點 a 和斜率 b 的值Y = 400 + 382Xxbya22xnxyxnxyb(1)x(2)y(3)xy(4)x2(5)y2(6)Y16006

3、001360,000801.321,5503,10042,402,5001,160.931,5004,50092,250,0001,520.541,5006,000162,250,0001,880.152,40012,000255,760,0002,239.763,10018,600369,610,0002,599.472,60018,200496,760,0002,959.082,90023,200648,410,0003,318.693,80034,2008114,440,0003,678.2104,50045,00010020,250,0004,037.8114,00044,000121

4、16,000,0004,397.4124,90058,80014424,010,0004,757.17833,350268,200650112,502,5006.5 b=359.6153xy= 2,779.17 a=441.6666Y = 441.66 + 359.6 XY = 441.66 + 359.6 XSxySxy = 363.9 = 363.9a.加法性b.乘法性季平均各季銷售季節因子 歷史銷售量 季平均銷售(1,000/4)季節因素春200250200/250=0.8夏350250350/250=1.4秋300250300/250=1.2冬150250150/250=0.62001

5、00300400500600700IIIIIIIVIIIIIVII19931994170610季實 際 需 求由 趨 勢 公 式Tt = 170+ 55t實 際 /趨 勢季 節 因 素(兩 年 之 平 均 )1 9 9 6I3 0 02 2 51 .3 3II2 0 02 8 0.7 1III2 2 03 3 5.6 6I-1 .2 5IV5 3 03 9 01 .3 6II-0 .7 81 9 9 7III-0 .6 9I5 2 04 4 51 .1 7IV -1 .2 5II4 2 05 0 0.8 4III4 0 05 5 5.7 2IV7 0 06 1 01 .1 5計算下年度的預測結果計算下年度的預測結果 FITStFITSt= =趨勢趨勢* *季節性季節性I- 1998 FITS9 = (170+55(9)1.25=831II- 1998 FITS10 = (170+55(10)0.78=562III-1998 FITS11