可持续发展的绿色核算国际和世行经验-Sustainabi

1、Green Accounting for Sustainable Development可持续发展的绿色核算International and World Bank Experience 国际和世行经验Magda LoveiSector ManagerEnvironmentEast Asia and Pacific RegionThe World Bank1Outline提纲Introduction前言International experience国际经验验TheWorldBanks Adjusted NetSavings methodology世行经过过调整的的净储蓄蓄方法Adjusted

2、NetSavingsinAsia亚洲经过过调整的的净储蓄蓄Looking ahead未来发展展21 Introduction前言Assetaccounting forsustainabledevelopment可持续发发展的资资产核算算3A conditionforsustainabledevelopment可持续发发展的一一个条件件Societysreal wealthisnotdeclining overtime社会真正正财富是是不随时时间而下下降的Real wealthconsistsof真正财富富包括：Producedassets生产的资资产(buildings,machines,ve

3、hicles, etc.) accountedforinthe National AccountsOtherassets其它资产产(expanding themeasure of wealth)Natural resourcesHumancapitalSocialcapital4Empiricalevidence: Theimportance of human andsocialcapitalascomponentofwealth实例：人人力和社社会资本本在财富富中的重重要程度度5Empiricalevidence: Large differenceinthe composition of n

4、aturalcapitalacrosscountries实例：自自然资本本各国差差异很大大62 Internationalexperience国际经验验Examplesofaccounting forassetdepreciation资产折旧旧核算案案例7Capturingrentsfromnatural resources ExamplefromNorway获取自然然资源的的租金挪威案案例Significantamounts of rents generatedbyoilindustrybut withhighfluctuationsForests generate substantial

5、rents but rents accruetoprivate sector(whichisalsosubsidized)Oiland gas Resource rents andtaxes(1985-1996)Forestry Resource rents andtaxes(1985-1995)8Assessingthe “cost”ofequityExample fromNorway净资产的的费用评评估挪挪威案例例FisheriesResourcerentsandsubsidies (1985-1995)Norwaychosetosupportsmallscalefisheriestopr

6、omoteregionaldevelopmentFisheriesdonot producepositiverentsNorevenue collectionHighlysubsidizedindustry9Reinvestingrentsinto other forms of capitalExample fromBotswana把租金再再投向其其他形式式的资本本波斯斯瓦那案案例Mineral revenues are35%ofGDP矿产收入入占GDP的35Government hasdeveloped“SustainableBudgetIndex“(SBI)政府开发发了可持持续预算算指数S

7、BImeasureshow muchofthe mineralrevenuesare convertedtootherformsofassets(includingexpendituresoneducation andhealth)Government guideline:norevenuefrom miningshouldbeusedforcurrentexpenditure103 The World BanksAdjustedNetSavings(ANS)Methodology世行经过过调整的的净储蓄蓄方法Anindicatorfor sustainability一个衡量量可行性性的指标标

8、11Adjustednetsavings(ANS)经过调整整的净储储蓄ANSmeasuresthe changeintotalwealthover timeSign andmagnitudeofANS arekeyindicatorsofsustainabilityDecomposition of ANSenables identification of policyrecommendationsNegativeANS(i.e.declineoftotalwealth) calls for:Improve fiscalandmonetarypolicyInvestmoreinhumancapi

9、talChangepoliciesand encourageoverexploitation of naturalresourcesImprove policies thatencourage betterpollutionmanagement12Adjustednetsavings经过调整整的净储储蓄% of GNI2002占国民总总收入的的百分比比200213Empiricalevidence实例Lowincome countrieshave thelowestANSLowerincome lower savingsLowerincomehigherdependenceonnatural

10、resourcesEast Asiaand pacifichavethehighestANS(becauseofveryhigh gross national saving)MiddleEastandNorthAfrica havethe lowestANS(becauseofoil extraction)14Implicationsfor sustainability acrossregions可持续性性的区域域比较MiddleEastandAfricaareonanunsustainablepath LatinAmericahaslow savingsratesEast Asiabenef

11、itsfrom highNationalSavings(2002)15Starkdifferencesbetween traditional andadjustednetsavings传统和调调整后的的净储蓄蓄的差异异Sub-SaharanAfrica-AdjustedNetSaving revealsadifferentstoryfromtraditionalmeasuresofsaving164 Adjustednet savingsinAsia亚洲调整整后的净净储蓄Evidenceandresearchneeds17Comparinggrossand adjusted netsaving

12、s储蓄总量量和调整整后的净净储蓄比比较18Indonesianatural resourcesexploitationhas increasedwith thecrisis印度尼西西亚自自然资源源的开发发已经增增加危机机19Malaysia educationexpenditureisanimportantpartofinvestments马来西亚亚教育育是投资资的重要要部分20China asuccessfulstorybutwithmore to learn中国一一个成功功的故事事但仍有有很多需需要学习习215 Lookingahead未来Challenges andopportuniti

13、es挑战与机机遇22Challenges挑战Environmental accounts aremostlyusedinindustrializedcountriesAssetaccountsareseldom usedtoassess sustainabilitySustainabilitycanonlybemeasuredifallassets areincluded(e.g.need to do moreworkonsoil erosion, groundwater,fisheries)Controversyover measurement of monetary valueshasma

14、deitmore difficulttoattract policymakersInternational comparisons areimportantbut methodologiesdiffer widelyacrosscountries (exceptANS)23Opportunities forChina中国的机机遇High potentialtogobeyondcurrentassetaccounting to analyzenationallyrelevantissuesOngoing effortsoncostofenvironmentaldegradationcan be exploitedforimprovedassetaccountingUseresearchresultsonlocalairand water pollutionUseinformationonsoilerosionAccesstointernationalexperience andexamplestomultilateralinstitutions24Concluding remarks“Greening”nationalaccountsisanimportant steptoward measuringsustainabilityandinforming policymaki