信息技术部门如何推动美国经济

HowtheITSectorPowers

theU.S.Economy

ROBERTD.ATKINSON|SEPTEMBER2022

Theinformationtechnology(IT)sectormakesanoutsizedcontributiontotheU.S.economyasaleadingexporterthatcreateshigh-payingjobs,includingfornon-college-educatedworkers,whileproducinghighlyinnovativeproductsandservicesthatdrivebroad-basedgrowth,counteractinflation,andimprovepeople’squalityoflife.

KEYTAKEAWAYS

▪

▪

▪

▪

▪

▪

Industriesvaryintherelativecontributionstheymaketonationaleconomies.TheITsector(whichmanycallthe“techsector”)distinguishesitselfwithhigh-payingjobs,lowpriceinflationforconsumers,strongexports,andsuperiorinnovation.

Nearlyone-fifthofallprivatesectorjobsintheU.S.economy(19percent)areenabledbyIT,througheitherdirectemploymentintheindustry,ITsupplierjobs,orIT-inducedjobs.

Overall,theaverageannualcompensationperworkerintheITindustryismorethandoubletheaverageU.S.privatesectorwage.Andamongnon-college-educatedworkers,thesectorpaysapproximately50percentmorethannon-ITindustriesdo.

TheITsectoraccountsformorethanone-fifthofallemploymentinsectorsthatengageintrade,morethanone-quarterofbusinessestablishmentsengagedintrade,andone-quarterofU.S.traded-sectorvalueadded.

ITproductsandservicesarekeyproductioninputsformanyotherindustries.Asof2019,theywerecontributing0.35percentagepointsoutoftheeconomy’s2.14percentoverallgrowthinvalueadded.

IT-basedproductsandservicesalsoaredeflationary:Theyhavebeengettingsignificantlycheapercomparedwiththerestoftheeconomy,whilehavinganoutsizedimpactonimprovingqualityandboostingefficiencyacrossallsectors.

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE2

CONTENTS

KeyTakeaways 1

Introduction 2

ITintheU.S.Economy 4

TotalJobs,IncludingtheMulitplier 6

ShareofTradedSectors 7

GoodJobs,IncludingforNon-College-EducatedWorkers 9

UseofITbyOtherIndustries 10

IT-IntensiveIndustriesandInflation 10

Conclusion 11

Appendix1:Methodology 12

Appendix2:DifferencesBetweenThisITIFReportandtheCommerceDepartment’sDigital

EconomyReport 15

Endnotes 16

INTRODUCTION

Industriesvaryintherelativecontributionstheymaketonationaleconomies:Somepaytheirworkersmorethanothersdo.Someraisetheirpricesmoreslowlythanothersdo—orevenreducetheirpricesovertime.Someexport,whichexpandstheirproductionandshiftstheoveralleconomytowardgreatercompetitivenessandproductivity,enablingaverageworkerstobetteraffordimports.Andsomeinnovatemorethanothers,therebydrivingeconomicgrowthandimprovingpeople’squalityoflife.

1

America’sITindustryhasallthesequalities:highpay,lowpriceinflationforconsumers,strongexports,andsuperiorinnovation.ThisreportreliesonthelatestdataavailablefromthefederalgovernmenttoexaminethekeyroleandcontributionsoftheITindustryintheU.S.economy.Appendix1describesthemethodology.

TheU.S.ITsector(whichmanyrefertoasthe“techsector”)includesindustriessuchascomputing,datastorageandprocessing,ITcomponents,informationservices,semiconductors,andsoftware.Thesectoremployed5.9millionworkersin2020,accountingfor4.4percentofU.S.privatesectorjobs.

2

TheseworkersearnedmorethandoubletheaverageU.S.wage.

3

Takingintoaccountthemultipliereffect,theindustrysupports19percentofallU.S.jobs.

4

TheITsectoralsoisanimportantsourceofwell-payingjobsfornon-college-educatedAmericans.Thesectorpayssuchworkersapproximately50percentmorethandonon-ITindustries.

5

Importantly,thelion’sshareofthesectorisgloballytraded,meaningitexportsproductsandservicesandcompeteswithproductionfromothercountries.AsashareofU.S.industriesthatcompeteintheglobaleconomy,theITsectoraccountsfor28percentofestablishments,22.4percentofjobs,and30.7percentofpayrollexpenditures.

6

ButgiventheferocityoftheglobalcompetitionforleadershipintheITsector,theUnitedStatesshouldtakenoneofthisforgranted.

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE3

GlobalMarketShare

Size-AdjustedAverage(LQ)

Finally,theITsectorisimportantnotjustbecauseofitsdirectimpactontheeconomyintermsofjobsandincome,butalsobecauseofitsindirecteffectonorganizationsusingITtoimprovequalityandproductivity,whethertheyarefor-profitcompanies,nonprofits,orgovernments.Thisiswhythereisamodestnegativecorrelationbetweenanindustry’suseofITandinflationoverthelastdecade.Inotherwords,industriesthatusemoreITraisepricesathalftheratethandoestheoveralleconomy—andthosesavingsarethenpassedontoAmericanconsumers.

Morebroadly,thenation’smoststrategicallyimportantindustrieshavethreemaincharacteristics—theyaredrivenbyadvancedtechnologies,theyaregloballytradedsectors,andtheyservethedualpurposeofcontributingtobotheconomicandnationalsecurity—andevenamongtheselectgroupthatmeetthosecriteria,theITsectorisastandoutfortheUnitedStates,punching35percentaboveitsweightintheglobalmarketplace.Thatis,theU.S.ITsectorrepresentednearlyone-thirdoftheglobalITmarketinthemostrecentcomparativedataavailablefromtheOECD(32.1percent),whichwas35percenthigherthantheU.S.shareoftheoverallglobaleconomy.

7

Thisisatellingmeasureofindustryconcentrationknownaslocationquotient(LQ),andasshownin

figure1,

thetrendlinefortheU.S.ITsectorhasbeendistinctlypositiveinrecentdecades:Itsrelativeglobalmarketsharewentfrom1.08xin1995(i.e.,8percenthigherthanthesize-adjustedaverageamong66countriesintheOECD’sdataset)to1.35xin2018(or35percentabovetherelativeaverage).Infact,ifnotfortheITsector’scontribution,America’smoststrategicallyimportantadvancedindustriesasagroupwouldhaverecededprecipitouslyinthatperiodinthefaceofsurgingcompetition,particularlyfromChina.TheITsectorthusrepresentsacorestrengththatU.S.policymakersshouldnottakelightly.

Figure1:U.S.performanceinadvancedindustrysectors

8

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2x

1x

0x

OtherIT&OtherPharma.Computer,MachineryMotorElectrical

TransportInfo.Electronic&Equip.VehiclesEquip.

Equip.Services&Optical

Total

Total

Minus

IT&Info.

1995Share2006Share2018Share1995LQ2006LQ

Services

2018LQ

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE4

RelativeConcentration,1995(LQBaseline)

OtherEquip

Transport.,$162B

Compu&Op

ter,Electrotical,$299

nic

B

Pharma.

169B

Mo

torVehicles$168B

,

Machi

.,

nery&Equi$165B

IT

&OtherInf

.

Ser

vices,$59

$65

.,

B

,$

2B

ElectricalEquip

Growth

p

o

Figure2

furtherunderscorestheITsector’sgrowingimportanceintheU.S.economy.Amongstrategicallyimportantadvancedindustries,ithasstoodoutinrecentdecadesasaparticularlyhighperformer—importantnotjustforitssize,butalsoforitsgrowthrelativetotherestoftheeconomy.Inotherwords,theUnitedStates—stilltheworld’slargesteconomy,andamongthemostdiversified—isbecomingincreasinglyspecializedinIT.

Figure2:ChangeinrelativeconcentrationofadvancedindustriesintheU.S.economy,1995–2018(scaledtoproductionoutputin2018)

9

1.75x

1.50x

1.25x

1.00x

0.75x

0.50x

0.25x

0.00x

BaselinePerformance

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%

ChangeinRelativeConcentration,1995-2018(%ChangeinLQ)

ITINTHEU.S.ECONOMY

In2020,therewere275,859ITindustryestablishmentsintheUnitedStateswithatotalannualpayrollof$722billion.

10

Moreover,thesectorisasourceofwell-payingjobsforAmericans.In2020,theaverageannualcompensationperworkerintheITindustrywas$122,270,117percentmorethantheaverageU.S.privatesectorwage.

11

TheDepartmentofCommerce’snewreportonthedigitaleconomyfindsthatfrom2012to2020,thenominalcompensationfordigitaleconomyworkersgrewatanaverageannualrateof6.0percent.

12

From2019to2020,theaveragenominalcompensationsawanevenlargergrowthof7.3percent.

13

ThisreportincludesfewerindustriesthandoestheCommercereport.Seeappendix2foranexplanationofthedifferencesinmethodologybetweentheDepartmentofCommerceandITIF.

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE5

Establishments

Employees

ValueAdded

Payroll

Exports

In2020,theindustryemployed5.9millionworkers.

14

From2017to2020,ITjobsgrewmorethantwiceasfastastotalU.S.privatesectorjobsdid(10.7percentvs.4.3percent).

15

JobsinIThardwaregrewby1.5percent,inpartbecauseoffasterproductivitygrowth,whilejobsinITservicesandsoftwaregrewby12.4percent.

16

Usingamoreexpansivemeasureofthedigitaleconomy—whichincludesmuchofretailthatusese-commerce,telecommunicationservices,andsomeentertainmentservices—theDepartmentofCommercereportshowstheindustryemployed7.8millionworkersin2020.

17

Figure3:ITindustry’sshareofthetotalU.S.economy

18

0%5%10%15%20%25%

UsingtheITIFindustrydefinition,in2020,theITsectoraccountedfor3.5percentofallbusinessestablishmentsand4.4percentofprivatesectoremployees,meaningtheaverageITfirmwasabout27percentlargerthantheaverageprivatesectorfirm.

19

However,becausetheIT

industrypayssowell,itaccountedfor9.5percentofallprivatesectorwages.

20

(See

figure3)

.

Asameasureofindustrycontributiontotheeconomy,themostaccuratemeasureisvalueadded,theresultofsubtractingthecostofpurchasedinputs(e.g.,rawmaterials,energy,etc.)fromfinalsales.In2020,theITindustrygenerated$1.2trillionindomesticvalueadded,approximately5.5percentoftheU.S.economy.

21

ValueaddedintheITsectorgrewby$600billion(109percent)from2010to2020,withdataprocessing,Internetpublishing,andotherinformationservicesgrowingthefastestat215.1percent.

22

Overall,U.S.grossdomesticproduct(GDP)grew39percentoverthesameperiod.

23

TheDepartmentofCommercefoundthatthedigitaleconomyaccountedfor10.2percent($2.14trillionofvalueadded)ofU.S.GDPin2020.

24

AccordingtotheDepartment,from2012to2020,thedigitaleconomy’saveragereal(inflation-adjusted)annualgrowthinvalueaddedwas6.3percent.

25

TheDepartment’sdataalsohighlightsthatthedigitaleconomy’srealvalueadded

grew151.4percentfrom2005to2020.

26

(See

figure4

.)

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE6

Figure4:CommerceDepartmentestimatesofgrowthinrealvalueaddedinthedigitaleconomy,2005–2020

27

B2BE-CommerceTelecomServicesHardware

E-Commerce

PricedDigitalServicesDigitalEconomy

Software

AllOtherPricedDigitalServicesInternetandDataServices

CloudServicesB2CE-Commerce

0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%

Finally,whileU.S.governmentdataonexportsislimited,exportdatawasavailablefor11of22ITindustries.

28

Theseindustriescollectivelyexported$301billionworthofITgoodsin2020.

29

Despiteonlymakingup11ofthe112totalcategoriesinexports,theITindustrycontributed21.2percenttotheeconomy’sgoodsexportsin2020.

30

Furthermore,theBureauofEconomicAnalysishasestimatedthattheITindustryexported$83.9billionworthofinformationandcommunicationstechnologyservicesin2020.

31

TOTALJOBS,INCLUDINGTHEMULITPLIER

TheimpactoftheITsectoronU.S.jobsandoutputgoesfarbeyondjustthesector.TheITsectorpurchasesgoodsandservicessuppliedbyotherindustriestosupportitscoreactivities,whichinturncreatesoutputandjobs.Inaddition,ITworkersspendtheirearnings,whichcreateswhatarecalled“inducedjobs.”

Thesectoremployed5.9millionworkersin2020.

32

Whenthemultipliereffect—whichaccountsfortheestimatednumberofsupplierandinducedjobsanindustrycontributes—istakenintoconsideration,theITsectoralsosupportedanestimated10.7milliondomesticsupplierjobsand8.7millioninducedjobsthatyear.

33

(See

figure5

.)Overall,in2020,theITsectorsupportedatotalof25.3millionjobs,or19percentofprivatesectoremployment.

34

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE7

DirectITJobs,

5.9M(4%)

ITSupplierJobs,10.7M(8%)

OtherPrivate

Employment,108.1M(81%)

IT-InducedJobs,

8.7M(7%)

TotalIT-SupportedJobs:25.3M(19%)

Figure5:IT-supportedjobsasashareofU.S.privatesectoremployment,2020

35

TotalU.S.Private-Sector

Jobs,2020:133.4M

SHAREOFTRADEDSECTORS

Whilecomparisonswiththeoveralleconomyareuseful,itisimportanttocomparetheITsectorwithotherindustriesthatarealsogloballytraded.Thereasonissimple:TheUnitedStatesdoesnothavetoworryaboutlosingitsbarbershopordry-cleaningindustriestoforeigncompetition,asAmericanscanonlypatronizebarbersordrycleanersintheUnitedStates.Butgloballytradedsectors,suchascomputerproduction,softwarepublishing,andautomobileproduction,canbelosttoforeigncompetitors,inwhichcasethenumberofgoodjobsisreduced,thetradedeficitworsens,andthevalueofthedollargoesdown.

Moreover,changesintradedsectoroutputandjobshavemultipliereffectsonoveralldomesticoutputwhilechangesinnontradedsectorsdonot.Attheregionallevel,thisiswhymayorsandgovernorswelcomejobcreationfromtradedsectorssuchasIThardwareandsoftware.Theseindustriesbringmoneytothelocalorstateeconomy,andthecompaniesandtheirworkersspendthatmoneylocally,creatingevenmorejobs.Assuch,tradedsectorgrowthprovidesmultipliereffectsnontradedsectorsdonot.Expandingoutputinnontradedsectorssuchasbarbershopsorhospitalsgenerallydoesnotleadtothenetincreasesinindirectandinducedjobsthatexpandingoutputintradedsectorsleadto.

ThisiswhytheBayAreaTechnologyCouncilfound,“Foreachjobcreatedinthelocalhigh-techsector,approximately4.4jobsarecreatedinthelocalnon-tradablesectorinthelongrun.Thesejobscouldbeforlawyers,dentists,schoolteachers,cooks,orretailclerks.Inshort,theincome

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE8

Employees

ValueAdded

Establishments

Payroll

generatedbyhigh-techindustriesspursahighrateofeconomicactivitythatsupportslocaljobs.”

36

Themultiplierishighbecausethehighlevelsofdisposableincometheseworkershavecreatejobsinothersectors,includingnontradedjobs.Moreover,ITcompaniesbuyinputs,whichalsosupportsjobs.

Asdiscussedinappendix1,ITIFclassifiedallprivatesectorenterprisesaseithertradedornontraded.In2020,theITsectoraccountedfor22.4percentofthetradedsector’semployeesand28percentofitsestablishments.

37

(See

figure6

.)Inaddition,theITindustryaccountedforalmostone-quarter(24.4percent)ofU.S.tradedsectorvalueaddedin2020.

38

Figure6:ITsectorasashareofallU.S.tradedsectors

39

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

TheITindustryaccountedforalmostone-quarter(24.4percent)oftheU.S.tradedsectorvalueaddedand30.7percentofthetradedsector’spayroll.

Relativetoothertradedsectors,theITsectoroffershigherwages,withaveragepayperemployee69percenthigherthantheremainingtradedsector’spayperemployee.

40

Whileitaccountedfor22.4percentofjobs,duetoitshighwagesperemployee,thesectoraccountedfor30.7percentofthetradedsectorpayroll.

41

Inotherwords,theITindustrygeneratesmorenationalincomeperworker.

42

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE9

GOODJOBS,INCLUDINGFORNON-COLLEGE-EDUCATEDWORKERS

TheITsectorprovidesnotonlyjobsbutalsogoodjobs,includingfornon-college-educatedworkers.Forexample,thesoftwarepublishersindustrypaysthehighestwagestonon-college-educatedworkersofanyindustry.

43

Whilethesoftwarepublishersindustryemploysalowerpercentageofworkerswithoutcollegedegrees—18.1percentcomparedwith65percentforallindustries—theseworkersearnanaverageannualsalaryof$94,875,whichismorethan2.5timesthegroup’snationalaveragein2019($35,915).

44

Moreover,thesoftwarepublishersindustry’swagesfornon-college-educatedworkersareevengreaterthantheaverageforallworkerswithatleastabachelor’sdegreeintheeconomyreceivedin2019($80,638).

45

Inotherwords,anaveragenon-college-educatedworkerinthesoftwaresectorcanpotentiallyearnmorethanacollege-educatedworkerintheoveralleconomy.Thisislikelyduepartlytothefactthatsomeworkersintheindustryhavestrongprogrammingskillsbutnocollegedegreeandpartlythatthereisanoverallshortageofsoftwareworkers,regardlessoftheirlevelofeducation.

Non-college-educatedworkersintheITsectorcanearnmorethancollege-educatedworkersintheoveralleconomy.

TheITindustryemploysasmallershareofworkerswithlessthanacollegedegree(35.6percent)comparedwithallindustries(64.6percent).

46

However,theaveragewageforworkerswithoutacollegedegreeintheITindustryis$53,023—50.1percentmorethanthenon-ITindustryaverageof$35,320.

47

Moreover,thesalarygapbetweenITindustriesandtherestoftheeconomyisincreasing:In2008,salariesfornon-college-educatedworkerswere49.9percentlargerinITindustriesthaninnon-ITindustries,comparedwith50.1percentin2019.

48

Table1

liststhesevenhigh-techITindustriesthatpaynon-collegeworkersatleast50percentmorethanthenon-college-educatednationalaveragesalaryof$35,915in2019.

49

Table1:EmploymentandwagesofworkerswithoutcollegedegreesinsevenITindustries,2019

50

IndustrySector

AverageWage

PercentageAboveAverage

Employment

SoftwarePublishers

$94,875

164.2

23,721

OtherInformationServices(ExceptLibrariesandArchives,InternetPublishingandBroadcasting,andWebSearchPortals)

$75,314

109.7

8,201

ComputerSystemsDesignandRelatedServices

$71,672

99.6

842,419

InternetPublishingandBroadcasting,andWeb

SearchPortals

$63,375

76.5

38,084

ComputerandPeripheralEquipment

$59,464

65.6

49,847

Navigation,Measuring,Electromedical,and

ControlInstruments

$56,305

56.8

133,516

DataProcessing,Hosting,andRelatedServices

$56,032

56.0

65,421

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE10

USEOFITBYOTHERINDUSTRIES

ManyindustriesacrosstheU.S.andglobaleconomiesutilizeITgoodsandservicesaskeyinputsintheirproductionprocess.Forexample,thankstoITagriculturehasbecomemoreproductive,usingGPS-enabledfarmequipment,soilsensors,andAI-poweredanalytics.AccordingtotheBureauofEconomicAnalysis,thetop10IT-intensiveindustries(industriesthatusethelargestamountofITintermediatesasashareoftheiroverallinputs)intheeconomyare:

▪

▪

▪

printedcircuitassembly(electronicassembly)manufacturing;

electroniccomputermanufacturing;

electronicandprecisionequipmentrepairandmaintenance;

▪allothermiscellaneouselectricalequipmentandcomponentmanufacturing;

▪

▪

▪

▪

motorvehicleelectricalandelectronicequipmentmanufacturing;

computerstoragedevicemanufacturing;

semiconductormachinerymanufacturing;

audioandvideoequipmentmanufacturing;

▪computerterminalsandothercomputerperipheralequipmentmanufacturing;and

▪federalgeneralgovernment(nondefense).

51

These10IT-intensiveindustries,whichmakeup1.7percentoftheoveralleconomy’soutput,purchasedapproximately$40.4billioninITgoodsandservicesin2019,withtheindustriesmakingupabout10.2percentoftheeconomy’suseofITintermediatesinproduction.

52

TheyalsospentthemostonthefollowingITintermediates:semiconductorandrelateddevicemanufacturing;otherelectroniccomputermanufacturing;audioandvideoequipmentmanufacturing;andcomputersystemsdesignservices.

53

AsaresultoftheintensiveuseofthesefourITintermediatesbyotherindustries,theycollectivelycontributed0.7percenttotheshareofoutputintheeconomy.

54

Computersystemsdesignservicescontributedthehighestshareof0.4percenttotheeconomy’stotaloutputin2019.

55

Furthermore,theITindustrycontributed0.35percentagepointstotheeconomy’svalue-addedpercentagegrowth(2.14percent)in2019aseithercapitalorphysicalassetsusedbyotherindustriesintheirproductionprocess.

56

IThardwareandsoftwarecontributedabout0.12percentagepointsand0.23percentagepoints,respectively.

57

IT-INTENSIVEINDUSTRIESANDINFLATION

Becauseofitsimpactonimprovingqualityandboostingefficiency,IThaslongbeendeflationary.Asanindicationofthescaleofthateffect,considerthatin33ITindustriesforwhichdataisavailable,theaverageproducerpriceindex(PPI)rose5.4percentfrom2012to2022,whereastheaveragePPIforallcommoditiesrose40.9percentinthesameperiod.

58

(See

figure7.

)Inotherwords,IT-basedgoodsandserviceshavebeengettingsignificantlycheapercomparedwiththerestoftheeconomy.

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION|MONTH2022PAGE11

Figure7:Average20-yearincreaseinproducerpriceindex(PPI),2012–2022

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

40.9%

5.4%

AllCommodities

ITSectors

NotonlyhavethepricesofITgoodsandservicesincreasedmoreslowlythaninflation,butindustriesthatusemoreITasashareoftheirinputstendtoincreasepricesmoreslowly.

NotonlyhavethepricesofITgoodsandservicesincreasedmoreslowlythaninflation,butindustriesthatusemoreITasashareoftheirinputstendtoincreasepricesmoreslowly.TheBureauofLaborStatisticshasdataonthetop15of19IT-intensiveindustries.

59

These15industriessawanaverageone-yearpercentagechangeintheJanuary2022PPIof5.5percent,comparedwitha1-yearchangeintheoverallfinaldemandPPIof10.1percent.

60

ThecorrelationbetweenthetotalshareofITintermediatesusedbyanindustryandthe10-yearchangeinPPIwas-0.18percent.

61

Inotherwords,themoreITanindustryusedtheloweritspriceincreaseswere.

CONCLUSION

America’sITsectorstandsoutasoneofthecountry’smoststrategicallyimportantadvancedindustries,makingoutsizedcontributionstothebroaderU.S.economyinnumerousways.Itisajobcreator—notjust