国际能源署-清洁技术制造的现状-能源技术展望专题简报

TheStateof

CleanTechnology

Manufacturing

AnEnergyTechnologyPerspectives

SpecialBriefing

INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthe

fullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Through

itswork,theIEA

advocatespoliciesthat

willenhancethe

reliability,affordability

andsustainabilityof

energyinits

31membercountries,

11associationcountries

andbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyover

anyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternational

frontiersandboundariesand

tothenameofanyterritory,

cityorarea.

IEAmember

countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

CzechRepublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

NewZealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiye

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

Commissionalso

participatesinthe

workoftheIEA

IEAassociation

countries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Morocco

Singapore

SouthAfrica

Thailand

Ukraine

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

TheStateofCleanTechnologyManufacturing:AnETPSpecialBriefingTableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Keyfindings 4

PartI:Introduction 6

PartII:Analysis 8

Anupdateontechnologiesthatareadvancingrapidly 8

Recentdevelopmentsincleantechnologymanufacturing 9

Regionalconcentrationincleantechnologymanufacturing 14

Theglobalmarketforkeycleanenergytechnologies 19

PartIII:Recentpolicydevelopments 23

UnitedStates 25

EuropeanUnion 27

China 30

Othereconomies 31

PartIV:RecommendationsfortheG7 33

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Keyfindings

•Cleanenergytechnologymanufacturingisexpandingrapidly,drivenbysupportivepolicies,ambitiouscorporatestrategiesandconsumerdemand.Theglobalenergycrisishasinstilledfurtherimpetustodevelopmanufacturingcapacitythatcanstrengthenenergysecurityanddiversifythesupplychain.ThisEnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)SpecialBriefingisdesignedtoprovidepolicymakerswithstrategicinsightsinthisarea,focusingonfivecriticaltechnologies:solarphotovoltaic(PV),wind,batteries,electrolysersandheatpumps.

•Newmanufacturingprojectsarebeingannouncedbytheday.IntheshorttimesincethelastIEAanalysisofcleantechnologymanufacturingin

EnergyTechnologyPerspectives

2023

(coveringannouncementsthroughtolate2022),theprojectedoutputin2030fromannouncedprojectsforsolarPVhasincreasedby60%,forbatteriesithasincreasedbyaroundone-quarter,andforelectrolysersbyaround20%.

•Itisnotjustannouncementsthatarepostingstronggrowthrates.Thelatestdataavailableforyear-end2022showinstalledmanufacturingcapacitypostedstrongyear-on-yeargrowthforbatteries(72%),solarPV(39%),electrolysers(26%)andheatpumps(13%).Windmanufacturingcapacitygrewmuchmoremodestlyataround2%.

•Ifallannouncedprojectsweretocometofruition,solarPVmanufacturingcapacitywouldcomfortablyexceedthedeploymentneedsoftheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE)Scenarioin2030.Evenifonlyhalfofthisnewcapacityweretobeutilised–theglobalaverageutilisationrateofsolarPVmanufacturingcapacityin2022wasslightlyover40%–throughputwouldstillbesufficienttoreachdemandlevelsintheNZEScenario(around

650GWperyearin2030).

•Forthefirsttime,announcedprojectsforbatterymanufacturingcapacitycouldcovervirtuallyallofthe2030globaldeploymentneedsoftheNZEScenario.Significantgapsremainforwind,whereprojectedthroughputfromexistingcapacityandannouncedprojectsequatestojustunder30%ofNZEScenariodeploymentlevels,electrolysers(justover60%)andheatpumps(justover40%).Butrelativelyshortleadtimes–forbothannouncementsandconstruction–forthefactoriesthatsupplythesetechnologiesimplyamorepositiveoutlookthanthesegapsinitiallysuggest.

•WhilethepipelinesofannouncedprojectsforsolarPVandbatteriesappearwell-stocked,manyoftheprojectstheycomprisehavenotyetstartedconstructionorreachedafinalinvestmentdecision.Globally,onlyaround25%oftheannouncedprojectsforsolarPVmanufacturingcapacitycanbeconsideredcommitted,withtheequivalentfigureforbatteriesbeingaround30%.

•Manufacturingoperationsarehighlygeographicallyconcentrated:currently,fourcountriesandtheEuropeanUnionaccountforaround80-90%ofglobalmanufacturingcapacityforthefivecleantechnologiesexaminedinthisbriefing.Chinaaloneaccountsfor40-80%acrossthesetechnologies.Ifallannouncedprojectsweretoberealised,theseshareswouldshiftto70-95%and30-80%respectively.

•Majorpolicyannouncementsofthepastyeararealreadystartingtodiversifysupplychains,asevidencedbythescale-upinplannedbatterymanufacturingcapacityintheUnitedStatesfollowingadoptionoftheInflationReductionAct.IntheUnitedStates,justtheannouncementsinthesecondhalfof2022andthefirstquarterof2023accountfornearly

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halfofthetotalprojectpipelineforbatterymanufacturingto2030.ThefullimpactsoftheNetZeroIndustryActintheEuropeanUnionarestilltooearlytogauge.

•Inmonetaryterms,theprojectedoutputoftheannouncedmanufacturingcapacityforthefivekeycleantechnologies(USD790billionperyear)nowexceedsthatofthemarketsizefortheirdemand(USD640billion)in2030,inascenarioinwhichgovernmentsimplementtheirannouncedclimatepledgesontimeandinfull–theAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS).Theaggregatesupplysurplusatthegloballevelismirroredforindividualtechnologies(solarPV,batteriesandelectrolysers),butmasksdeficitsforothers(windandheatpumps).Inaggregate,thissuggeststhatforseveraltechnologies,thedeploymentlevelsneededtomeetgovernments’climatepledgesintheAPSarehighlyachievable.

•ChinaappearswellpositionedtocaptureUSD500billion,oraround65%oftheprojectedoutputfromglobalcleantechnologymanufacturingcapacityin2030,includingbothexistingandannouncedprojects.UnlessChina'sdomesticdeploymentofkeycleantechnologiesexceedsthelevelsprojectedintheAPS,morethantwo-thirdsofthisoutputwouldbesurplustodomesticrequirementsandneedtofindexportmarkets.

•Ifallannouncedprojectsarerealised,theEuropeanUnionnowappearsabletofulfilallofitsdomesticneedsforbatteries,electrolysersandheatpumpsintheAPSin2030.TheUnitedStatescouldalsobevirtuallyself-sufficientwithrespecttoitsbatteryneedsby2030intheAPS,basedontheselatestprojectannouncements.

•ThisbriefingconcludeswithasetofpolicyrecommendationstargetedatG7members,butapplicabletoallinterestedgovernments.Theyreflectthefactthatnocountry–noranysupplychainsegment–canexistinavacuum.Fromstrategicsupplychainassessmentstostrategicpartnerships,governmentswillneedtoformulateindustrialstrategiesthatbalanceclimateandenergysecurityimperativeswitheconomicopportunities.

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PartI:Introduction

Deployingcleanenergytechnologiesatthepacerequiredtoputtheworldonatrajectoryconsistentwithnetzeroemissionsbymid-centurywilldemandrapidexpansionincleanenergytechnologymanufacturing

1

capacity,underpinnedbyrobustsupplychainsfortheircomponentsandmaterials.Assuch,technologymanufacturingplaysapivotalroleintheenergytransitionrequiredtomeetclimate,energysecurityandeconomicdevelopmentgoals.

ChangeisalreadyhappeningapaceinsectorssuchaselectricvehiclesandsolarPV,heraldinganewerainmanufacturing,withcountriesaroundtheworldintroducingpoliciestoshoreuptheirpositionintheemergingcleanenergyeconomy.Thisfast-movingtransitionhasbeengivenaddedimpetusbythecurrentglobalenergycrisis,whichhasincreasedenergysecurityconcernsandstarklyillustratestheneedforcleanenergytechnologieswithdiversifiedsupplychains.

Theplaceofcleantechnologymanufacturinginindustrialstrategyistodayacriticalconsiderationforgovernments,withpolicymakerscommittingtoscaleupinvestmentsanddiversifysupplychains.Strategicpolicymakingintheareaofcleantechnologymanufacturingwillrequireaclearunderstandingoftheexpecteddemandforcleanenergytechnologiesindifferentregionalandpolicycontexts,andanassessmentofbottlenecksthatneedtobeaddressedinordertofulfilclimateambitions.

Thisbriefingprovidesanupdateonrecentprogressincleantechnologymanufacturinginkeyregions.ItbuildsuponthelatesteditionoftheIEA’sflagshiptechnologypublication,

EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023(ETP-2023)

,publishedinJanuary2023.TheanalysisinETP-2023hasbeenupdatedtotakeintoaccountrecentannouncementsofexpansionsinmanufacturingcapacity,inordertoinformconsiderationsbydecisionmakersseekingtotapintotheopportunitiesofferedbytheemergingcleanenergyeconomy.

Webeginwithareviewofrecentdevelopments,exploringhowfarthecurrentprojectpipelineisconsistentwiththetrajectoryneededtoreachnetzeroemissionsby2050.Weconsiderwherethesedevelopmentsareoccurringbytechnologytoassesslevelsofregionalconcentrationincleantechnologymanufacturing.Wegoontoconsidertheglobalmarketforkeycleanenergytechnologies,andfinallytoexplorehowrecentpolicydevelopmentsareshapingthelandscapeofcleantechnologymanufacturing.

1Hereafter“cleantechnologymanufacturing”.

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Box1Scenariosusedinthisbriefing

AnalysisinthisbriefingisunderpinnedbyglobalprojectionsofcleanenergytechnologiesderivedfromtheIEA’s

GlobalEnergyandClimate(GEC)model

,adetailedbottom-upmodellingframeworkcomposedofseveralinterlinkedmodelscoveringenergysupplyandtransformation,andenergyuseinthebuildings,industryandtransportsectors.Themodellingframeworkincludes26regionsorcountriescoveringthewholeworld.

ThemostrecentyearofcompletehistoricaldatafromtheGECmodelis2021,towhichyear-end2022manufacturingcapacitydatahavebeenaddedaspartoftheanalysisforthisbriefing.DataforQ12023areavailableforsometechnologies.Forprojectedvalues–wefocuson2030inforward-lookingassessments–wemakeuseoftwoIEAscenariosproducedusingtheGECmodelthatdescribepossibleenergysystempathways:

The

NetZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE)Scenario

isanormativescenariothatsetsoutapathwaytostabiliseglobalaveragetemperaturesat1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.TheNZEScenarioachievesglobalnetzeroenergysectorCO2emissionsby2050withoutrelyingonemissionsreductionsfromoutsidetheenergysector.Indoingso,advancedeconomiesreachnetzeroemissionsbeforedevelopingeconomiesdo.TheNZEScenarioalsomeetsthekeyenergy-relatedUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals,achievinguniversalaccesstoenergyby2030andsecuringmajorimprovementsinairquality.

The

AnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS)

assumesthatgovernmentswillmeet,infullandontime,alltheclimate-relatedcommitmentstheyhaveannounced,includinglonger-termnetzeroemissionstargetsandNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),aswellascommitmentsinrelatedareassuchasenergyaccess.Itdoessoirrespectiveofwhetherthesecommitmentsareunderpinnedbyspecificpoliciestosecuretheirimplementation.Pledgesmadeininternationalforaandinitiativesonthepartofbusinessesandothernon-governmentalorganisationsarealsotakenintoaccountwherevertheyaddtotheambitionofgovernments.

Neitherscenarioshouldbeconsideredapredictionorforecast.Rather,theyareintendedtoofferinsightsintotheimpactsandtrade-offsofdifferenttechnologychoicesandpolicytargets,andtoprovideaquantitativeframeworktosupportdecision-makingintheenergysector,andstrategicguidanceontechnologychoicesforgovernmentsandotherstakeholders.Thescenariosandresultsareconsistentwiththosepresentedinthe

WorldEnergyOutlook2022

,and

ETP-2023

,withtheexceptionofbatterydemand,whichhasbeenrevisedbasedonupdatespresentedinthe

GlobalEVOutlook2023

.

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PartII:Analysis

Anupdateontechnologiesthatare

advancingrapidly

TheIEAreport

EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023(ETP-2023)

analysedtherisksandopportunitiessurroundingthedevelopmentofcleanenergytechnologysupplychains,exploringallthemajorstepsthroughoutthesupplychain.Thisbriefingexaminesthemanufacturingstepsinmoredetail,withaspecificfocusonfivekeytechnologiesforthecleanenergytransition:solarPVmodules,

2

windturbines,

3

batteries,

4

electrolysers

5

andheatpumps.

6

Manufacturingcapacityexpansionsforthesetechnologiestendtohaveshorterleadtimesthanotherstepsinthesupplychain,suchasmining.Thismeansthatprogressfromannouncementtooperationcanbeespeciallydynamicinasupportiveenvironment.Thesesupplychainstepshavealsobeenstronglyemphasisedinrecentpolicyannouncements.Themanufacturingdatacompiledforthisbriefing(seeBox2)aimstocapturetheselatestdevelopmentsandprovideasnapshotofthecurrentoutlookforcapacityadditionsthroughto2030.Ofparticularinterestiswhetherrecentprojectannouncementshavechangedthepicturewithrespecttothesignificantdegreeofregionalconcentrationincleantechnologymanufacturingrevealedin

ETP-2023

,andwhichcountriesandregionsappearbest-positionedtocapturesharesofthemarketsforkeycleantechnologiesinthecomingyears.

Box2Manufacturingdatacompiledforthisbriefing

Themanufacturingdatacompiledforthisbriefing,coveringthefivefocuscleanenergytechnologies–solarPV,wind,batteries,electrolysersandheatpumps–canbecategorisedasfollows:

“Installedmanufacturingcapacity”referstothemaximumratedoutputoffacilitiesforproducingagiventechnology,asdistinguishedfromtheinstalledcapacityofthetechnologiesthemselvesoncedeployed.Capacityisstatedonanannualbasisforthefinalproduct(e.g.solarPVmodules)anddoesnotspeakto

2Hereafter“solarPV”,unlessaparticularcomponentorintermediatestepinproductionisspecified.

3Hereafter“wind”,withanalysisbasedonaggregateoraveragequantitiesfornacelles,towersandbladesasappropriate.

4Includingbothmobileandstationaryapplicationsandallbatterychemistries.

5Includingbothalkalineandprotonexchangemembranetechnologies.

6Forresidentialapplicationsonly.

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thecapacityforproducinganyintermediateproductsandcomponents(e.g.polysilicon).Manufacturingthroughput–alsostatedonanannualbasis–isafractionoftheinstalledmanufacturingcapacity.Itdependsontheutilisationrateofproductionfacilities,whicharetypicallyaround85%ifoperatingnormally,butaresometimesmuchlower.

ETP-2023

covereddataforinstalledmanufacturingcapacitytoyear-end2021;inthisupdatedataforyear-end2022areadded.

“Announcedprojects”referstotheaggregatestatedcapacity–orestimatedthroughputofthatcapacityassumingadefaultutilisationrateof85%–ofpotentialfuturemanufacturingfacilitiesforwhichprojectshavebeenannounced.Announcementsincludeprojectsthatareatdifferentstagesofdevelopment,withsomealreadyunderconstructionandothersnotyetatthefinalinvestmentdecisionstage.Thequantitiesassociatedwiththeseprojectsarenotaforecast,noraretheydirectlyassociatedwiththeprojectedquantitiesembodiedbythescenariosdescribedinBox1.Actualmanufacturingcapacityadditionscouldturnouttobehigherthancurrentpublicannouncementsatagivenpointintime,orlower,asnotallannouncedprojectswillmaterialise.Assuch,theyprovideanindicatorofwheretheindustryisheaded,butnotanexpectationontheeventualoutcome.Howthesefactorsplayoutwillvarybytechnologyandbyregionalcontext.

ETP-2023

providedasnapshotofannouncedprojectsasofend-November2022(hereafter“late2022”);thisbriefingcoversthoseprojectannouncementsandinadditionanyfurtherannouncementsuptoend-March2023(hereafter“end-Q12023”).Unlessstatedotherwise,forward-lookingquantitiesassociatedwiththecapacityorthroughputofannouncedprojectsincludeallprojectsinoperationuptoandincludingtheyear2030.

Completedataonmanufacturingcapacityandthroughputhavebeencompiledfor2021and2022.Projectannouncementsarecompiledonanon-goingbasisforelectrolysers,onamonthlybasisforsolarPVandbatteries,andonanad-hocbasisforwindandheatpumps.Nonewquantifiabledataonprojectannouncementswereavailableforwindsincethepublicationof

ETP-2023

,andthusthereisnochangeinthequantificationofannouncedprojectsforthattechnologyinthisbriefing.Externaldataprovidersinclude

InfoLink

,

Thomson

Reuters

,

BloombergNewEnergyFinance

,

WoodMackenzie

,and

Benchmark

MineralIntelligence

.

Recentdevelopmentsincleantechnology

manufacturing

Areviewofthelatestprojectannouncementsforcleantechnologymanufacturingshowsthatsomemanufacturingsectorslooksettomeet–andeventoexceed–thecapacityrequiredby2030togetontrackwiththedeploymentneedsofthe

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Shareof2030NZEScenariodeployment

150%

NZEScenariodeploymentneedsin2030

100%

50%

NZEScenario.Othersarelaggingbehind,withsubstantialincreasesinambitionrequiredtomeetemissionsreductiongoals,butprogresshasbeenmadeinthepastfewmonths.Giventheshortleadtimesrequiredtobringmanufacturingcapacityonline,reachingthe2030deploymentlevelsintheNZEScenario,thoughasignificantchallenge,isnotaninsurmountableoneforthesetechnologies.

Figure1

Announcedprojectthroughputanddeploymentforkeycleanenergytechnologiesin2030intheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario

200%

0%

SolarPVBatteriesWindHeatpumpsElectrolysers

Installedmanufacturing

capacity:Announcedprojects:

20212022Asoflate2022Additionaltoend-Q12023GaptoNZE

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:PV=photovoltaic;NZEScenario=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.“Announcedprojects:late2022”correspondstotheprojectpipelineassessedforETP-2023,includingprojectannouncementsthroughtotheendofNovember2022.“Announcedprojects:Additionaltoend-Q12023”correspondstoprojectsannouncedbetweentheendofNovember2022andtheendofMarch2023.Deploymentandthroughputareexpressedinphysicalunits,normalisedto2030NZEScenariodeploymentneeds.

ForsolarPVandbatteries,announcedprojectstodayalreadymeetandevenexceedthedeploymentlevelsrequiredintheNZEScenarioin2030.Shortleadtimessuggestthegapsremainingforwind,heatpumpsandelectrolysers,thoughsignificant,arenotinsurmountable.

SolarPVmanufacturingcontinuestoexpanddramatically

SolarPVmanufacturing–whichincreasedatacompoundannualgrowthrateof25%duringtheperiod2010-2021–showsnosignofslowingdown.In2021,manufacturingthroughputstoodjustover190GWglobally,comparedwitharound160GWofsolarPVdeployedinthesameyear.In2022,globalmanufacturingcapacityrosebynearly40%toabout640GW,with90%ofthegrowthrelativeto2021takingplaceinPeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”).Manufacturingthroughputin2022wasaround260GW,significantlybelowthe640GWofinstalledmanufacturingcapacity–indicatingaglobalaverageutilisationrateofaround40%.

Asoflate2022,ouranalysisofannouncedprojectsforsolarPVsuggestedthatmanufacturerswerealreadyontracktomeetprojecteddemandin2030intheNZEScenario,withabout670GWofthroughputbythatyearresultingfrom

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announcementsforadditionalmanufacturingcapacity.Asofend-Q12023,theprojectpipelinehasexpandedevenfurther.Around480GWofadditionalmodulemanufacturingcapacityhasbeenannounced(570GWofcells,250GWofwafers,570GWofpolysilicon),increasingthetotalvolumeofplannedcapacityby60%.Theresultisnearly1.1TWofprojectedthroughputfromthisannouncedmanufacturingcapacityformodules,which,whencombinedwithcurrentinstalledcapacity,is65%higherthanthelevelrequiredtosatisfydeploymentneedsundertheNZEScenarioin2030.WhenexaminingtheprojectedoutputforothermajorPVcomponents–albeitwithashortertimehorizonforannouncedprojectsuptoandincluding2027–thefiguresare80%,37%and96%forcells,wafersandpolysiliconrespectively.However,onlyaround25%oftheannouncedmodulemanufacturingcapacityiscommitted,i.e.underconstructionorhavingreachedfinalinvestmentdecision.Evenconsideringjusttheseprojects–alongsideexistingcapacityof640GW–theprojectpipelineappearscapableofaccommodatingtheNZEScenariodeploymentneedsby2030,ifutilisationratesincreaseto85%onaveragegloballybythen.

Majorproject

7

announcementsmadeinQ12023includenewmanufacturingfacilitiesfortheworld’stopthreeproducers–LONGi,JinkoSolarandTrina–aswellasforotherlarger(e.g.Tongwei,Suntech)andsmalleroremergingplayers(e.g.SolarGrids,RECGroup,Hoshine,Royal),mostlybasedinChina.Thesemajorprojectsaccountfor45%ofthetotaladditionalcapacityannouncedasof

Q12023.

Accelerationinbatterymanufacturingisclosingthegapwith

netzeroneeds

Batterymanufacturingcapacityisalsobooming,owingtorapidincreasesinelectricvehicle(EV)sales.In2021,batterymanufacturingthroughputstoodat340GWh,withthisfigurenearlydoublingtoreach660GWhin2022.580GWhofmanufacturingcapacitywasaddedin2022,up85%fromthecapacityaddedin2021.About80%ofthe2022manufacturingcapacityadditionswereinChina,justover10%inEuropeandjustunder10%intheUnitedStates.Around90%ofthesebatteriesarecurrentlydestinedforautomotiveapplications.Globalelectriccarsalesroseby55%year-on-yearin2022,withtheshareofelectriccarsintotalcarsalesreaching14%,upfrom9%in2021.InmajormarketssuchasChinaandEuropethissharereached29%and21%,respectively.Salesalsorosetoanearly8%shareintheUnitedStates,representing55%year-on-yeargrowth.

Lookingatthepipelineofannouncedprojects,fromlate2022toend-Q12023,plannedmanufacturingcapacityhasrisenfromaround5.5TWhto6.8TWhper

7“Majorprojects”referstoplantswithstatedproductionca