国际金融系统的过去现在与未来

AnIntroductiontoInternationalEconomics

SecondEditionTheInternationalMonetarySystem:Past,PresentandFutureDominickSalvatoreJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.CHAPTERSIXTEEN1TheinternationalmonetarysystemTheinternationalmonetarysystemreferstotherules,customs,instruments,facilitiesandorganizationsforeffectinginternationalpayments.2TheinternationalmonetarysystemTheinternationalmonetarysystemreferstotherules,customs,instruments,facilitiesandorganizationsforeffectinginternationalpayments.ExchangerateoptionsFixedexchangeratewithanarrowbandoffluctuationFixedexchangeratewithawidebandoffluctuationAcrawlingpegAmanagedfloatAfreefloat3TheinternationalmonetarysystemTheinternationalmonetarysystemreferstotherules,customs,instruments,facilitiesandorganizationsforeffectinginternationalpayments.InternationalreservetypesAgoldstandardApurefiduciarystandardwithnoconnectiontogoldAgold-exchangestandard4TheinternationalmonetarysystemCharacteristicsofagoodsystemMaximizestheflowofinternationaltradeGeneratesanequitabledistributionofthegainsfromtradeMinimizesthecostsandtimeattendantwithadjustmentfromdisequilibriaOfferssufficientliquiditysothatexternaldisequilibrianeednotgenerateinternaldisequilibriaGeneratesconfidenceinthesystemsothatparticipantstrustintheefficacyofthesystem5ThehistoryofinternationalmonetarysystemsThegoldstandard1880to1914Theinterwarperiod1919to1939TheBrettonWoodssystem1944to1971Thepresentsystem1973totoday6ThegoldstandardUnderthegoldstandard,currencyvaluesweredeterminedbyspecifiedgoldcontent.Nationsboughtorsoldcurrencyatthisspecifiedgoldratio.Externalequilibriumisattainedviatheworkingsoftheprice-specie-flowmechanism.Adherencetothegoldstandarddeprivednationsoftheabilitytoindependentlycontrolthemoneysupply.ThestrainsofWorldWarIbroughttheclassicalgoldstandardtoanend.7TheinterwarperiodIn1925,theUKattemptedtoreestablishtheper-warmonetarysystembyreestablishingtheconvertibilityofthepoundintogold.Theconversionratewassetatthepre-warlevel.Thisleftthepoundsignificantlyovervalued.8TheinterwarperiodTheUKsufferedsignificantgoldlossesunderthissystemandwasforcedtoabandonconvertibilityin1931.From1931to1936,themonetarysystemsufferedfromnumerouscompetitivedevaluations.DevaluationwassoughttoboostexportstospurdomesticeconomicactivityduringtheGreatDepression.Retaliatorydevaluationsnegatedanypositivegainsfromdevaluation.9TheBrettonWoodsSystemTheBrettonWoodsSystemestablishedagoldexchangestandardcenteredontheU.S.dollarafterWorldWarII.Thevalueofthedollarwassetat$35perounceofgold.Othercurrencieswerepeggedinvaluerelativetothedollar.Fluctuationsweretobekeptwithina+/-1percentboundaroundtheparvalue.10TheBrettonWoodsSystemTheBrettonWoodsSystemestablishedagoldexchangestandardcenteredontheU.S.dollarafterWorldWarII.Balanceofpaymentsdisequilibriaweretobefinancedfromanation’sforeigncurrencyreservesorfromborrowingfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).FundsborrowedfromtheIMFweretobepaidbackwithin3to5years.11TheBrettonWoodsSystemTheBrettonWoodsSystemestablishedagoldexchangestandardcenteredontheU.S.dollarafterWorldWarII.Balanceofpaymentsdisequilibriaweretobefinancedfromanation’sforeigncurrencyreservesorfromborrowingfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).Onlyfundamentaldisequilibriumweretoresultincurrencyrevaluation.12TheBrettonWoodsSystemLong-rundevelopmentassistancewasprovidedbytheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(IBRDorWorldBank).WWWlinktotheWorldBank13FundingoftheIMFMembersoftheIMFareassignedaquotabasedonthesizeoftheireconomy.VotingpowerintheIMFisproportionaltothesizeofthenation’squota.Thequotaispaid(1)¼ingoldand(2)thebalanceinthenationsdomesticcurrency.IMFdataonquotasandvotingpowerWWWlink14BorrowingfromtheIMFInborrowingfromtheIMF,anationreceivesconvertiblecurrenciestofundbalanceofpaymentsdisequilibria.Anationmayborrownomorethan25percentofitsquotaduringanygivenyearwithamaximumborrowinglimitof125percent.Thefirst25percentborrowed,thegoldtranche,comeswithoutrestrictionsorconditions.Subsequenttranchescomewithhigherinterestchargesandstricterconditions.15CollapseoftheBrettonWoodsSystemInpractice,fewcurrencyrevaluationsoccurred.Thisleftgrowingbalanceofpaymentsdisequilibria.Beginningin1958,theU.S.beganrunningsignificantbalanceofpaymentsdeficits.CausesSignificantnetcapitalinflowsVietnamWarOilimports16CollapseoftheBrettonWoodsSystemInpractice,fewcurrencyrevaluationsoccurred.Thisleftgrowingbalanceofpaymentsdisequilibria.Beginningin1958,theU.S.beganrunningsignificantbalanceofpaymentsdeficits.EffectsDepletionofU.S.goldreserves1949:$25billion1970:$11billionDeclininggoldreservesforcedtheU.S.tosuspendgoldconvertibilityin1971.17CollapseoftheBrettonWoodsSystemSmithsonianAgreement(1971)Dollarpriceofgoldincreasedto$38OthermajorcurrenciesrevaluedFluctuationbandsincreasedto+/-2.25percentEffectivelygeneratesadollarstandardContinuingbalanceofpaymentsdeficitsforcedasubsequentdevaluationofthedollarin1973($42.22perounce)andfinallyasuspensionofdollarconvertibilitytogold.18ThepresentmonetarysystemFollowingthecollapseoftheBrettonWoodsSystem,themonetarysystemmovedtoasystemofmanagedfloats.ThiswasofficiallyacknowledgedbytheJamaicaAccordsof1976.InternationalreservesforcurrencyinterventionisstillprovidedbytheIMF.ThelendingabilityoftheIMFwasexpandedin1997bytheNewArrangementtoBorrow.TheuseofIMFconditionalityhascometobeasourcegreatcontentionwithintheinternationalmonetarysystem.19CurrentsystemproblemsExchangeratevolatilityThedollaroverhangFinancialcrisesinemergingmarketeconomiesRecentcrisesMexico,1994-95SoutheastAsia,1997-98Russia,1998Brazil,1999Turkey,2001-02Argentina,2001-0220CurrentsystemproblemsExchangeratevolatilityThedollaroverhangFinancialcrisesinemergingmarketeconomies

RecentcrisesProximatecauseRapidwithdrawalofshort-termcapitalTradeprotectionisminindustrializ