中国电池产业链：固态电池热潮后的暂停-2025-09-零部件

÷Ⅷb12August2025RevisitingsoIidstatebattery(SSB)progress,toppicksPTLandEaspringSSBprogress:theracecontinuesbutexpectationheightenedFundamentaIs:Iimitedpricingopportunity,positiveonEaspring,PTLM/Sgaingrowth.DowngradeYinghe,NuodetoSeII;wuxiLead,RonbaytoNeutraIFigure1:RatingandpricetargetchangesEquitiesEquitieschinachinakunIunLiTaowangrab2Utilisationbelow2ShareperformancerQ124Q224Q324Q424Q125Cathode(Rmb/kg)Q225QoQYoYQ325QoQYoYSpotYTDLFPprocessingfee523processingfee15,43310,88611,17211,58611,72215,54215,027 -4%-2%14,49413,089-7%-13%5%-6%14,20010,104-3%-10%38%37,28529,80235,75036,02332,650Anode(Rmb/kg)31,07730,50030,50030,50030,80831,9624%5%31,9250%5%31,7004%Separator(Rmb/sqm)Wet7μm1.060.920.840.840.76Copperfoil(Rmb/kg)4.5umprocessingfee332831310.73-3%-20%0.68-7%-19%32f-2%ll3%0.68-19%32-3%0% 7%-1%9%-3%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24OctFeb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/25BatteryutilisationeeePricingopportunity2024Peak90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24OctFeb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/25NCMutilisationPricingopportunity2024Peak90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/25LFPutilisationPricingopportunity2024Peak90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/25AnodeutilisationPricingopportunityeee2024Peak90%80%70%60%50%40%30%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/2590%80%70%60%50%40%30%Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/25Feb/23Apr/23Jun/23Aug/23Oct/23Dec/23Feb/24Apr/24Jun/24Aug/24Oct/24Dec/24Feb/25Apr/25Jun/2580%70%60%50%40%30%20%20%0%0%CopperFoilutilisationPricingopportunity2024PeakWetseparatorutilisationeeeCopperFoilutilisationPricingopportunity2024Peak30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%CATLEVEBatteryEaspringRonbayNCMCathodeYunengDynanonicLFPCathodeEnjieSeniorSeparatorPutailaiShangtaiAnodeCapchemTinciElectrolyteYTDsharperformanceCSbatteryindexperformanceab3ab420%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%ROEPolysiliconbenchmarkGCLTechTongweiTianqiGanfengEaspringRonbayYunengDynanonicEnjieSeniorPutailaiShangtaiCapchemTinciNuodeJiayuanGCLTechTongweiTianqiGanfengEaspringRonbayYunengDynanonicEnjieSeniorPutailaiShangtaiCapchemTinciNuodeJiayuanSeparatorPolysiliconElectrolyteLithiumCopperFoilLFPCathodeSeparatorPolysiliconElectrolyteLithiumCopperFoilLFPCathodeAnodeNetGearingPolysiliconbenchmark120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%GCLTechTongweiGanfengRonbayYunengDynanonicSeniorShangtaiCapchemTinciNuodeJiayuan-60%GCLTechTongweiGanfengRonbayYunengDynanonicSeniorShangtaiCapchemTinciNuodeJiayuanTianqiEaspringEnjiePutailaiTianqiEaspringEnjiePutailaiSeparatorPolysiliconElectrolyteLithiumCopperFoilLFPCathodeSeparatorPolysiliconElectrolyteLithiumCopperFoilLFPCathodeAnode40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000Apr/24Jul/24Oct/24AprApr/24Jul/24Oct/24Apr/25Jul/25Nov-2024Anti-involutionproposal2.00.80.6Anti-involutionproposalsfromApr-24Oct-24Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Wet7μmWet5μmab520242025-TheStateCouncilpublishedMadeinChina2025,targetingenergydensityofpowerbatteryto-MarketchatteringaboutMIIIT'smid-termreviewonthesubsidizedSSBR&Dproject-MIITissuedfileinFeb<新型储能制造业高质量发展行动方案>mentioningtheapplicationofSSBinenergystorage-MIITissuedfileinApr<2025年工业和信息化标准工作要点>mentioningtopushforthestandardizationofSSBindustryreach400Wh/kgbyend-2025Fand500Wh/kgbyend-2030F.China-InMay2024,ChinareportedlyinvestedaboutRmb6.0bnintotheR&DofASSB.CATL,BYD,FAWGroup,SAIC,WelionandGeelywillreceiveR&Dsubsidiesfromthegovernment.-TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)announcedUS$42minsUSforsolid-stateandflowbatterymanufacturinginearly2023,whichincludesseveralSSB-relatedprojectfromSolidPower,Ampceraetc.Japanesegovernmentannouncedplanstoincreasesubsidiesforelectric-vehicle(EV)batteryproduction,committingupto$2.4billioninsupportforprojectsledbyToyotaMotor(includingSSB)andothermajorcompanies.KoreaNAMay2025,Koreainvests182.4billionwon(US$131mn)innext-generationall-solid-statebatteries,inwhich:-ASSBforsmallITdevice:35.2030).ab6targetab740%XinyurenSanxiangXIBACurrentCollector/Anode■YTDperformance---SSBindexYTDperformanceCompanyKeycatalystsCommentsOngoal(301662.SZ)TsingYan'ssuccessfulcompletionof0.1GWhDBEproductionline,May2025DBEisconsideredoneoftmassproductionCurrentCollectorsTiantie(300587.SZ)Tiantiesigned100t(Rmb400mn)offtakeagreementforCu-Licompositetape,Jul2025Weobservedivergenceoftechnicalrouteincurrentcollector/anode,i.eporous/Cu-Licompositetape/Ni-Feetc.(Rmb100klevelmodel),withelectrolytesuppliedfromSanxiang,Jul2025LaunchofeconomicEVmodelmarksaccelaratedcomercializationHalidebasedelectrolytealsogainingtraction(Sanxiangstartedsmallbatchshipment)ab818,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-17,00014,00011,500Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25New0%0%4,2084,1852%2%-------3%2%0%32.0%32.4%34.8%31.8%32.1%34.6%0.2ppt0.2ppt0.2ppt19.2%19.6%22.2%18.9%19.3%22.0%0.2ppt0.2ppt0.2ppt12.8%12.8%12.6%12.8%12.8%12.6%0.0ppt0.0ppt0.0ppt15.2%16.8%19.2%14.9%16.7%0.3ppt0.1ppt0.1ppt2%2%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%0%0%0%4,2004,2004,0004,0005%5%0%0%0%0%ab960%50%40%30%20%10%0%7.1%45.8%2022202320242025-27ELGESSKOn5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000500-Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25■ChinatoPolandwKoreatoPoland5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0004,6004,5004,4004,4004,4003,5003,5003,1002,900Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25ab100.760.740.682.001.801.601.401.201.000.800.600.760.740.680.00Q123Q223Q323Q423Q124Q224Q324Q424Q125Q225Q3257μmwetseparatorprice(Rmb/sqm)400Q123Q223Q323Q423Q124Q224Q324Q424Q125EnjieInventorydaysSeniorinventorydaysNewOldChange2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E11,26212,35514,52713,79316,58319,849-18%-25%-27%2,2192,7003,9103,0494,7806,757-27%-44%-42%6841,1012,1271,4083,0024,753-51%-63%-55%Netprofit(Rmbm)2288021,6611,0782,3943,850-79%-67%-57%19.7%21.9%26.9%22.1%28.8%34.0%-2.4ppts-7.ppts-7.1ppts6.1%8.9%14.6%10.2%18.1%23.9%-4.1ppts-9.2ppts-9.3pptsNetincomemargin(%)2.0%6.5%11.4%7.8%14.4%19.4%-5.8ppts-7.9ppts-8.pptsOperations2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027ETotalshipment(msqm)8,3309,56310,8808,85610,42512,200-6%-8%-11%-15%-22%-21%00.280.400.50-29%-45%-40%ab11WuxiLead(raisepricetarget8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000201920202021202220232024E2025E■.■ab12interesttrendingdown)Previoussurgeinsearchinterestservesasanleadingindicator(3-4monthsahead)ofmid-(200)2022202320242025E2026E2027EBatteryEquipmentVapour2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2028E2025E2026E2027ENewNewNewOldOldOldChangeChangeChange8,1339,26810,19510,04711,37412,511-19%-19%-19%-5%-22ppts0ppts6,4377,4026,4377,4028,1420%0%0%30%30%0ppts0ppts0pptsVapour3,1913,5103,861-60%-60%-60%-53%-54ppts0ppts0ppts22%23%24%29%29%28%-6.9ppts-5.5ppts-4.3ppts8%9%11%17%17%17%-8.6ppts-7.2ppts-5.2pptsNetprofit3444586917188701,146-52%-47%-40%2434552434560%0%0%Vapour236626689-66%-66%-66%4%5%7%7%8%9%-2.9ppts-2.7ppts-2.4pptsOperatingcashflow-755469-1,3152,967398-43%-60%18%TraditionalbusinessDownsidescenario2434.0%7.9%-1.7%6,1106,3665,7662.0x0.8xTraditionalbusinessvalue(Rmbmn)8,55412,7334,613421700200Yinghe'sstake51%51%51%Vaporvalue(Rmbmn)2,5785,3551,02018,0885,63365065065028.009.0024212,8170.710.00ab13Nuode(lowerpricetarget14%toRmb3.9040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000Jan/24Apr/24Jul/24OctJan/24Apr/24Jul/24Oct/24Jan/25Apr/25Jul/25Processfee-4.5umProcessfeeProcessfee-4.5um8,0006,0004,0002,000-(2,000)(4,000)(6,000)2022202320242025E2026E2027EKeyfinancials2025ENew2026E2027E2025EOld2026E2027E2025EChange2026E2027E6,9888,3625,7667,81821%7%0%851688-17%-26%-29%321458-215%-70%-61%8.2%10.2%10.1%11.9%14.8%14.1%-3.7ppt-4.6ppt-4.1ppt0.0%3.3%4.1%3.7%7.9%8.1%-3.7ppt-4.6ppt-4.1ppt-1.2%1.2%1.8%1.2%4.1%4.5%-2.4ppt-2.9ppt-2.7ppt-1.5%1.7%3.1%1.2%5.4%7.3%-2.7ppt-3.7ppt-4.2pptOperations2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027ECopperfoilsalesvolu68,40074,48083,25057,00069,16083,25020%8%0%92,181102,18189,181102,1813%0%0%5,0008,0009,0008,000-38%-38%-36%9178213,6114,430-187%-75%-65%ab14Ronbay(lowerpricetarget18%toRmb23.00,downgradeto0Jan-24Apr-24Jun-24JulJan-24Apr-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Jan-25Apr-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-250.800.600.400.20-Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Tesla46802025ENew2026E2027E2025EOld2026E2027E2025EChange2027E13,00316,98921,90421,80926,25328,429-40%-35%-23%2,0392,5872,1753,1373,433-46%-35%-25%2352,0162,219-81%-50%-39%735916-87%-52%-40%9.1%12.0%11.8%10.0%11.9%12.1%-0.9ppt0.0ppt0.0ppt1.8%5.9%6.2%5.7%7.7%7.8%-3.9ppt-0.2ppt-0.2ppt0.9%4.3%4.7%4.2%5.8%6.0%-3.3ppt-0.3ppt-0.2ppt1.4%8.5%11.2%9.9%14.8%14.6%-8.5ppt-0.4ppt-0.2pptOperation2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E110,925140,250167,409146,276166,452182,457-24%-16%-8%112,274116,274126,774137,632141,632-18%-18%-10%10,00014,00015,00014,50018,50018,500-31%-24%-19%ab15What´sPricedIn?2.9x2.6x2.3x2.0x1.7x1.4x1.1x0.8xTinci*●Capchem*Gotion*ZhongkeGotion*Nuode*GanfengRonbay*Nuode*Putailai*Easpring*Enjie*0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2026-27EAvg.ROEGotion*3%3%4%4.3x46.5913%15%16%4.022%22%22%389,0004714.07%-3%2%5%225,000-1%4%7%42.717%10%12%9%8%9%10%14%16%16%0%6%9%9%14%15%3%4%0%4%10%277,5002%4%6%83,400-34%6%16%9%10%44.8613%13%13%9%12%15%Anode12%14%15%15%17%18%12%14%16%3%6%4%6%7%28,750-4%3%8,2901-9%0%13%15%16%Tinci*8%10%14%4%5%7%Copperfoil-1%2%3%92%4%5%26,7507-3%3%4%9,2804-6%0%2%OthermaterialsCnano*43.054.415%19%19%Tayho*3%5%8%15%16%17%3%9%9%7%9%11%-6%2%6%ab16PivotalQuestionsUpside/DownsideSpectrumCompanyDescriptionQ:Willthebatteryequifrrr30.028.026.024.028.0026.024.022.020.018.016.017.0018.016.014.012.09.00=9.00=11Aug8.0+12mo.20232024+12mo.12/26E0.71x0.00xImplied21.5x24.1x#DIV/0!UpsidetoDownside1to1.8Upside:+31%Downside:-58% 25%22%0%Affab17Upside/DownsideSpectrum300457.SZPriceRmb21.3030.028.026.024.028.0026.024.022.020.018.016.017.0018.016.014.012.09.00=9.00=11Aug8.0+12mo.20232024+12mo.12/26E0.71x0.00xImplied21.5x24.1x#DIV/0!UpsidetoDownside1to1.8Upside:+31%Base:-20%Downside:-58% A25%22%0%ab18Commons/hequityab19Valuation(x)12/2212/2312/24Growth(%)12/2212/2312/2412/25E12/26E12/27EMargins&Profitability(%)12/2212/2312/ab20PivotalQuestionsUpside/DownsideSpectrumCompanyDescriptionr70.060.050.040.040.00=30.027.00=20.011Aug14.0011Aug10.0202320242025+1220232024202512/26E0.70xImplied28.6x21.0x20.0xUpsidetoDownside1.1to1Upside:+53%Downside:-47%Rmb14.00downside0%0%ab21Upside/DownsideSpectrum300450.SZPriceRmb26.1870.060.050.040.040.00=30.027.00=20.011Aug14.0011Aug10.0202320242025+12mo20232024202512/26E0.70xImplied28.6x21.0x20.0xUpsidetoDownside1.1to1Upside:+53%Base:+3%Downside:-47%25%25%38%22%35%20.6%0%0%33%21.0%ab22ProfitaftertaxOperatingcashflowInvestingcashflowab23Valuation(x)12/2212/2312/24Marketcap.Totalenterprisevalue81,94648,373Growth(%)12/2212/2312/2412/25E12/26E12/27EMargins&Profitability(%)12/2212/2312/