瑞银-铝行业：中东供应冲击与需求风险需求疲软下供应中断仍将造成短缺-Aluminium：Middle East supply shock vs demand risk-20260518

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●CountrySmelterOperatorCapacity%ME%Ex-China%GlobalRawmaterialOutputlossOperatingStatusUAEAlTaweelahEmiratesGlobalAluminium1,60023.7%5.4%2.2%Importsalumina/bauxite1400-1600Uncontrolledshutdown-prolongedimpactUAEJebelAliEmiratesGlobalAluminium1,10016.3%3.7%1.5%Importsalumina/bauxite50-150LimitedImpactBAHRAIN*AlbaAluminiumBahrain1,60023.7%5.4%2.2%Importsalumina800-1000Partdamaged-operate30-50%QATAR**QatalumQatalum6509.5%2.2%0.9%Importsalumina200-250Controlledshutdown-operating60%IRANVariousVarious78011.5%2.6%1.1%Importsalumina250-300Strikes/rawmaterialshortagesSAUDIARABIAMa'adenMa'aden/AlcoaJV80011.9%2.7%1.1%IntegratedLimitedLimitedImpactOMANSoharSoharAluminium4005.9%1.3%0.6%ImportsaluminaLimitedNoImpactTotal6,930100%23.4%9.6%2700-3300a§420072008200920072008200920202021202220232024202520264540353025204644464442403836342020202120222023202420252026AluminiumProjectProjectownerCommodityLocation/commentsTimelineAluminium(Green)OperatingNorthSumateraHuaqing/HuaChinAluminium(Coal)250OperatingSulawesi2023Huaqing/HuaChin-ExpansionAluminium(Coal)250Construction/Ramp-upSulawesi2025OperatingAlamtriMineralsPhase1Aluminium(Coal)Construction/Ramp-upBulunganRegency,NorthKalimant2025Kemajuan/Pioneer-WedaBayAluminium(Coal)Construction/Ramp-up2025ShandongNanshanAluminiumAluminium(Coal)250Construction2027Xinfa-MorowaliAluminium(Coal)Construction2026/27Aluminium(Coal)CommittedMempawah,WestKalimantan2028/29IndonesiaComitted3,150AlamtriMineralsPhase2*Aluminium/Renewables(Hybrid)BulunganRegency,NorthKalimant2030AlamtriMineralsPhase3Aluminium(Green)BulunganRegency,NorthKalimant2029ShandongNanshangAluminiumAluminium2028+2,000Aluminium(Coal)400Construction400ktbrownfield2025-27Aluminium(Coal)Construction2028a§5 CountryCompanySmelterCapacityCuts/IdleOutputCommentsSpainAlcoaSanCiprian23002302-Yearcurtailment-Restarting2025/26GermanyTrimetEssen1600160Cutsduetohghpowerprices-restarting2025/26GermanyTrimetHamburg1350135Cutsduetohghpowerprices-restarting2025/26GermanyTrimetVoerde95095Cutsduetohghpowerprices-restarting2025/26FranceTrimetSt.JeandeMaurienne1450145Cutsduetohghpowerprices-restarting2025/26FranceAIPDunkerque285028520%cutreversedinJan-23NorwayHydroKarmoy/Husnes4550455Cut110-130ktduetoweakdemand-restarting2025/6NorwayAlcoaLista940941outof3potlinesduetohighpower-restarting2025/6SloveniaTALCOTalum1159223CutbytwothirdsGermanySpeiraNeuss130130050%cutSep-22,FullshutannouncedMar-23MontenegroKAPPodgorica1201200FullycurtailedMay-23NetherlandsAloftHoldingsAldel(Delfzijl)1501500ShutdownduetohghpowerpricesRomaniaAlroSlatina29017411660%cutduetohghpowerpricesSlovakiaNorskHydroSlovalco1751750(Aug-22)Shutremaining60%byEndSept-22Total2,5798411,7382021EuropeanOutput4,400Cuts%202119%EuropeanDemand9,200Cuts%20219%USACenturyHawesville1801800(Jun-22)9-12mcutduetopowercosts2290229USAAlcoaTotalWarrick21539554234161161Potentialrestart?2021USOutput992Cuts%202124%USDemandCuts%20215,8004%SmeltersCompanyCountry20232024202520262027202820292030MorowaliXinf00000WedaBay00400KalimantanPTAlamtriAluminiumIndones000000000ShandongNanshanShandongNanshan000004254144254254254250Ma'adenMa'0JebelAliEmiratesGlobalAlKarmoyHydroAlVoerdeTrimet0028,92929,25329,70628,0344,9064534.3%41,75443,26844,55045,45045,90045,90045,90045,9004.0%450000TotalAluminiumProd4.0%婚§6OtherOther1%Construction22%Electrical12%Solar8%NEV5%Machinery&EquipmentConsumerGood8s%4%Packaging16%Transport11%ICE13%2020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000Othera§71,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202120222023202420252026 8.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420250.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025S:CRatioSHFECOMEXLMEOtherS:CRatioSHFECOMEXLMEJan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-265,5004,5003,5002,5001,500500-500-1,5004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000LMEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-264,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000SHFEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)200150100500-50-100婚§8 700600500400300200100020192020202120222023202420252026US-UnpaidEU-UnpaidJPYoftariffs1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26BilletpremiumvsstandardEuropeDutyPaidPremium EuropeBilletPremium 婚§9 Bauxite&AluminaALUMINIUMMODELGlobalCommodities&Mining2020202120222023202420252026e2027e2028e2029e2030eGlobalBauxiteSupply370378380396382396406417419419420growthinsupply%3.4%2.0%0.7%4.1%-3.5%3.7%2.5%2.6%0%0%GlobalBauxiteDemand370378380396382396401413418419419GlobalBauxiteBalance5.13.7-11GlobalAluminaSupply(Metgrade)124.9130.1132.1134.4137.3145.5147.0151.3153.3153.7153.7growthinsupply%1.8%4.2%1.6%1.7%2.2%6.0%1.0%3.0%1.3%0%0%GlobalAluminaDemand125.4130.0132.2135.9139.6142.5140.9146.5151.8153.5153.5AluminaMarketBalance-0.60.1-0.1-1.5-AluminiumPrimarySmelterSupplyChina37.038.540.141.843.344.645.545.945.945.945.9Europe(exRussia)3.93.9Russia4.54.5NorthAmerica4.14.04.04.04.1MiddleEast6.96.9Other9.19.8GlobalAluminiumSupply65.167.568.770.772.574.273.476.379.179.980.0Growth%2.5%3.7%1.8%2.9%2.6%2.3%-1.1%4.0%3.6%1.1%0.0%TotalDemandChina43.746.245.648.049.050.651.352.553.855.056.1EuropeNAmerica9.4Other20.321.522.723.924.9TotalDemand83.990.490.992.494.097.199.3102.8106.3109.6112.6Growth%-3.5%7.7%0.5%1.7%1.7%3.3%2.3%3.5%3.4%3.1%2.8%SecondaryDemand20.021.621.522.622.623.324.225.426.527.628.7Growth%-5.9%7.9%-0.4%5.0%-0.1%3.3%3.8%4.9%4.5%4.1%3.8%PrimarydemandChina37.539.439.840.842.143.544.045.046.046.947.7Europe9.9NAmerica8.08.3OtherPrimaryDemand63.968.869.469.871.573.875.277.479.881.983.9Growth%-2.8%7.7%0.8%0.6%2.4%3.3%1.8%3.0%3.0%2.7%2.4%AluminiumMarketBalance1.16-1.32-0.660.871.060.34-1.79-1.15-0.73-2.00-3.95VisableInventory3.82.6-0.5-1.6-2.4-4.4-8.3DaysConsumptiondays4.9-1.8-5.8-8.1-14.6-27.0LMEAluminiumPriceUsc/lb77LMEAluminiumPriceUS$/t1,7042,4762,6972,2552,4212,6313,3163,3053,2042,8442,866AluminapriceaverageUS$/t270329362344500389318365400400415a§ 202320242025y/y%Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26m/m%01-May08-May15-MayChangew/w%ChangeYTDCopper167273157-42%2543603939%399399396-4-1%239152%317411251%392359201-44%192181181-10%6962%Comex87438405%5465345503%55856356741%12929%ChinaBonded82275244%686144-28%41404000%-36-47%Sub-total22345678272%1,2591,3151,188-10%1,1891,1841,18300%40151%LMEoff-warrant583-31%8611113319%12813013000%73129%Total22853883956%1,3441,4261,321-7%1,3181,3141,31300%47457%Aluminium549653521-20%466421376-11%365356344-12-3%-177-34%99201129-36%3564554816%4834935093%380296%Comex42276-78%421-46%11100%-5-81%ChinaOther33528948869%80189498410%94994894800%46094%Sub-total1,0251,1701,144-2%1,6271,7721,8434%1,7981,7981,80240%65858%LMEoff-warrant541365159-56%11910611912%12011611600%-43-27%Total1,5661,5351,303-15%1,7461,8791,9624%1,9181,9141,91840%61547%225245107-56%97115103-11%9611111100%44%213073141%126149143-478107%Sub-total246275180-35%223264246-7%23925726242%8246%LMEoff-warrant733826-32%43344946%00%27103%Total319313206-34%267298295-1%29531031441%10953%Nickel6416225658%288282278-1%276278276-2-1%208%364423%6164697%717280811%3580%Sub-total7819830051%3493463460%34834935662%5618%LMEoff-warrant6910551%105114107-6%11211011000%55%Total9526840551%453460454-1%46045946561%6015%婚§11 0Oct-24Oct-24Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Mar-26Apr-26May-261,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec7006005004003002001000202620212022202320242025婚§12 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420258.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0LMESHFECOMEXOtherChinaS:CRatio1,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202120222023202420252026 3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202120222023202420252026 婚§13 4,7004,200020072008200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520265004003002001000LMESHFELMEPrice($/t)1616141210864202016201720182020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026a§Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-261,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000-200-400-600-800LMECopperNetLong(kt)Copperprice($/t)16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-265,5004,5003,5002,5001,500500-500-1,500LMEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-265,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000LMEZincNetLong(kt)Zincprice($/t)2,0001,5001,0005000-500Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-2618,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000806040200-20-40-60SHFECopperNetLong(kt)Copperprice($/t)Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-262004,0002003,5001503,0001002,500502,000501,50001,000-50500-1000-100SHFEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)40,00035,000Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-240,00035,000Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-2625020030,00015025,00020,00025,00020,00015,000500-5010,000-1005,00005,0000-200NickelPriceLMENetNickelPricea§2020JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021202220232024202520264540353025Nov-17Apr-18SepNov-17Apr-18Sep-18Feb-19Jul-19Dec-19May-20Oct-20Mar-21Aug-21Jan-22Jun-22Nov-22Apr-23Sep-23Feb-24Jul-24Dec-24May-25Oct-25Mar-260-40180160140120100806040200-2035030025020015010050USEuropeChina(RHS)(ktpd)19.019.018.017.016.015.014.013.012.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20242025202620192019181716151413121110JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20212022202320242025202620072008200720082009201520202021202220232024202520262027806040200-20-40-60-80-100SPOT(China)9.09.08.58.07.57.06.56.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep202420252026a§20202022020202120222023202420252026958575654520072008200920072008200920202021202220232024202520264540353025204002000-200-400-600-800-1,000-1,200200620072008200920102011200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026IncentivetoimportprimaryNoincentivetoimportprimarySHFEvsLMEPricedifferential3mMA2020202120222023202420252026-500500300-100-300Imports2006200720062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202625002000150010005000USMidwest-DutyPaidEurope-DutyPaidJapan20042005200620042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026700500300100-100-300-500ImportExportNeta§200520062005200620072008200920202021202220232024202520266005004003002000-100Spot-RealisedFeb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-24Feb-25Feb-267006506005505004504003503004.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMar-15Mar-Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-267006005004003002000ZincconcimportsAug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-251301109070503010-10-30-50RefinedZincImports12mMaNov17Mar18Jul18Nov18Mar19Jul19Nov19MarNov17Mar18Jul18Nov18Mar19Jul19Nov19Mar20Jul20Nov20Mar21Jul21Nov21Mar22Jul22Nov22Mar23Jul23Nov23Mar24Jul24Nov24Mar25Jul25Nov2510009008007006005004003002001000a§Mar-19Oct-19May-20Dec-20Jul-2Mar-19Oct-19May-20Dec-20Jul-21Feb-22Sep-22Apr-23Nov-23Jun-24Jan-25Aug-25Mar-2645,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00000%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%2009200920202021202220232024202520268060402006543210May-20May-20Apr-23Aug-25Mar-2640,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,00040%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%5,000-30%(Mt)2Q204Q202Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q232Q244Q242Q254Q258642020172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202420252,4002,2002,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000ChinaEuropeUS12mma婚§19婚§20 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%a§ 12-monthrating婚§22 relevanttoCreditSuisseWea婚§23