摩根大通-ESS电池：2026年前四月出货量同比增109yy;attention turns to lithium carbonate price tolerance and demand implications-20260521

AsiaPaci

itielrhlist

u:/t/ywwsveauce

21May2026

ThismaterialisneitherintendedtobedistributedtoMainlandChinainvestorsnortoprovidesecuritiesinvestmentconsultancyserviceswithintheterritoryof MainlandChina.Thismaterialoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofJ.P.Morgan.

ESSBattery

4M26+109%y/y;attentionturnstolithiumcarbonatepricetoleranceanddemandimplications

GlobalESSbatteryshipmentssustainedstrongmomentuminApr-26,rising93%y/yand14%m/mto94GWh,perICCSino;for4M26,globalshipmentsreached310GWh,up109%y/y,trackingwellaheadofFY25's93%y/ygrowthandoncoursetopotentiallyexceedJ.P.Morgan’s926GwhorICCSino’scurrent1,100GWhfull-yearforecast.Chinadomesticdemandremainedthelargestcontributorin4M26at44%mixwith>120%y/y,whileex-Chinademandheldupwellat173GWh(~100%y/y,56%mix)despitedeclinesinexportstotheUS.Amongexportdestinations,EU(~170%y/y)andRoW(>150%y/y)continuedtodriveex-Chinagrowthin4M26,supportedbylocalincentivesandacceleratingenergysecurityprocurementfollowingtheescalationoftheMiddleEastconflictsinceMarch.Thisalignswithourrecentexpertcall(takeaways),whichhighlightednetpositivenear-termESSdemanddynamics,includingincreasingESSdemandforgridpeak-shavingandcriticalinfrastructurepowerbackup,alongsideacceleratingresidential,andC&Istorageadoptioninenergy-import-dependentmarketsamidelevatedoilandgaspricesandheightenedsupplyrisk.Lookingahead,1H26ESSproductionvolumemayseea110-120%y/ygrowth,perICCSino’slatestforecast.

WithinJ.P.Morgan’sAsiaESSvaluechaincoverage,ourtoppicksareCATL(globalleaderwithmarketsharegainsinnon-USregions),Sungrow(re-ratingpotentialfromdirectsalestodatacentersonnewusecases),Deye(ridingondistributed-generationESSwithstrongemergingmarketsexposure),LGESandSDI(wellpositionedforUSESSopportunities).ESSisalsoincreasinglyimportantforBYD,contributing>20%ofitstotalbatteryshipmentsin2026.

ESSinstallation:US>70%,China>76%y/ygrowthin1Q

•China’sESSinstallation+76%y/yin1Q26:China’sESSinstallationreached6.6GWhinMar-26,up13%y/y,perCNESA.Thishasbrought1Q26ESSinstallationto27.1GWh,up76%y/y(link).WeattributestronggrowthtoimprovingprojectreturnprofileforindependentESSplantsandrisingESSbatterydurationonthebackofpositivepolicysupports.

•USESS(BESS)installation+70%y/yin1Q26:USBESSinstallationreached1,205MWinMar-26,up18%y/y(partlyduetohighbase),aspertheEIA,bringing1Q26to3.2GW,up70%y/y.WecontinuetoseestrongUSBESSdemandin2026,inpartduetoatightpowermarketfromAIDC.Thesedatapointsareapositiveread-acrosstoSungrowandKoreanbatterysuppliers’2026USESSshipmentandtheoverallstrengthoftheUSmarket,inourview.

GlobalESSbatteryshipment:+109%y/yin4M26

•GlobalESSbatterydemandremainedstrongin4M26,withshipmentsup109%y/y,sustainingFY25’s>90%y/ygrowth.GrowthismainlydrivenbyChinadomesticdemand(~150%y/y,duetosupportivepolicies)androbustChinaexportstoallex-USregions(~100%y/y).GlobalESSbatterysupplyremainsChina-led(~97%share),whiledemandisbalancedat~56%overseasand~44%domestic.

AsiaAutos&EVBatteryRebeccaWenAC

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)LimitedAlanHonAC

(852)2800-8573

alan.hon@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

CathyLiu

(852)2800-8629

cathy.xiao.liu@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

DaqiJiao

(852)2800-8595

daqi.jiao@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

SonnyLee

(82-2)7585716

sonny.lee@

J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch

ParsleyOng

(65)6882-8578

parsley.rh.ong@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivate

Limited/J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)

Limited

NickLai

(65)6801-3176

nick.yc.lai@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivate

Limited/J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)

Limited

StephenTsui,CFA

(852)2800-8592

stephen.tsui@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

Seepage19foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon.USanalystdisclosures.

com

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

2

•ChineseESSbatteryexportssurged167%y/ytotheEUand154%y/ytoRoWin4M26.AprilsustainedthestrongtrajectoryinESSexportsdespitechangesinexporttaxrebatepolicy(exporttaxrebatereducedfrom9%to6%from1stApril).ThecontinuingMiddleEastconflicthasbroadenedthedemandimpulsebeyondEuropeanresidentialstorage—unliketheRussia-Ukrainecrisis,thecurrentconflictisdrivingastructurallywiderutility-scaleprocurementresponseacrossmultipleregions,withenergy-import-dependentmarketsacceleratingstorageadoptionamidelevatedoilandgasprices.OurlatestchannelchecksforESSbatterymanufacturersandkeyupstreammaterialsalsoshowedfull-capacityoperationsforESSbatteryin1H26.

•ChineseplayerESSshipmentstotheUSfell18%y/yasordersshiftstolocalsupplyfromtheKR/JPplayers.TheUSESSmarketshowedtentativesignsofstabilizationinApr-26,withChineseplayershipmentsrecoveringto6GWh(+15%y/y,+5%m/m)—thefirstpositivey/yprintsincetheOBBBA-drivendemandshiftacceleratedin2H25.For4M26,however,ChineseplayershipmentstotheUSstillfell18%y/y,asharpreversalfromFY25's+126%y/y,withtheUSrepresentingonly8%ofChineseplayers'end-marketmixvs.21%inFY25.Incontrast,KR/JPESSbatterymakerspostedover170%y/yshipmentgrowth,drivenprimarilybyUSdemand.USbatteryimportdataconfirmsthistrend:China-originlithiumbatteryshipmentsdeclined62%y/yin1Q26,whileKorea-originshipments(largelyfromSDI)rose22%y/y,underscoringtheongoingsourcingshiftasOBBBAregulationsremaineffective.

•ThecontinueddebateonlithiumcarbonatepriceimpactonESSdemanddestruction.AslithiumcarbonatepricesinChinaapproachRmb200k/t,concernsoverESSdemanddestructionhaveresurfaced.FeedbackfromsupplychainparticipantssuggeststhatsomedemandbeginstofeeltheimpactwhenlithiumpricesexceedRmb150k/t,whileothersbelievethattolerancethresholdshaveshiftedhigher,totheRmb200–250k/trange.Year-to-date,ChineseESSbatterypriceshaverisenapproximately16%,reflectingafullpass-throughoflithiumcarbonatecostincreases.

•TheAIDCESSusecaseisrapidlyemergingasastructuralincrementaldemanddriver,withgridbottlenecksandasupportiveregulatorytrajectoryidentifiedasthetwoprimarygrowthenablersperourrecentexpertcall(takeaways).WebelieveCATLismovingdecisivelytocapturethisopportunityforESSbattery,executingthreecomplementarytransactionsrecentlytoassembleafull-stackAIDCESSecosystem(Table5).Theseincludea49%stakeinZhonghengElectric'sparent,combiningCATL'sAC-sidebatteryandBMSexpertisewithZhongheng'sDC-sideHVDCandIDCpowerarchitecturecapabilities;theworld'slargestsodium-ionbatteryorder60GWhwithHyperstrong,targetingAIDCdeploymentfrom4Q26;anda~38.1%strategicstakeinVNETGroupviaaffiliatedentity,potentiallysecuringanationwidedeploymentchannelandalong-termorderpipeline.Notably,CATL'spurpose-builtsodium-ionESSsolution,delivering97%systemefficiencyand>15,000-cyclelife,isstructurallywell-suitedtoAIDCrequirementswhereinstantaneousloadswingsdemandsub-secondresponse.WithESSbatteriesrepresentinglessthan5%oftotalAIDCprojectcapex,OBBBA-relatedtariffheadwindsmayhaveamorelimitedimpactonCATL'sUSAIDCopportunitythancurrentlyassumed.

Recommendations

ThetablebelowsummarizesthekeyrelevantstocksunderJ.P.MorgancoverageandtheirexposuretotheESSbusiness.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

3

J.PMorgan

•WerecentlyinitiatedcoverageofDeyeatOW.Deyeisadistributedgeneration(DG)energystorage(ESS)producerwithafirst-moveradvantageinEmergingMarkets(EM).WeseestructuralgrowthinESSglobally,onenergytransitionandrenewables’intermittentissues.ESSbatteryshipmentdatainAprilalsoindicatedDGhashighergrowth(C&I+154%yoy)thanutility-scale(+93%yoy).Withingeography,multipleEMregionswillsee>50%2025-27installationCAGR,perBloombergNewEnergyFinance(BNEF).Nearterm,energysupplyshocksarecatalyzingfasteradoptionofDGofsolar+storage,especiallyinregionswhereDGdieselwasadopted.Longerterm,wemayseeapolicytilttowardsenergyresilience,providingalong-termgrowthtailwind.

Deye’slegacyexposuretohomeappliancesenablesitscostleadership,owingtorisingin-housefabrication(linktoinitiationreport).

•LargestPCSsupplier–Sungrow(OW):Sungrowistheworld’slargestsolarinverterproducerbyvolume,gainingmarketshareinrecentyearsduetocostadvantage.Comparedtodomesticpeers,Sungrowofferssuperiorproductqualityandstrongerbrandrecognition.WeexpectSungrowtobenefitfromrobustESSdemandandrisingordersfromutilitiesanddatacenters.

•ChinaESSbattery:CATL(OW)isthelargestESSbatterymakergloballyandourtoppickinChina’sbatteryvaluechain.EVEEnergy(N)hasthehighestESSexposureamongcoveredbatterymakers,followedbyCALB(N).WealsofavorBYD(OW)givenstrongdemandforitsEVmodelsinoverseasmarketsandbenefitsfromverticalintegrationinEVandESS.

•KoreanbatteryplayersseeimprovedopportunitiesandmarginsinUSESS.

LGES(OW)’sESSorderwinmomentumhasbeenstrongandweestimatethecompanyhasthelargestLFPESSorderbacklogamongsttheKoreanbatterymakers.SDI(OW)’sESSvisibilityisalsoimproving:USbatteryimportdataindicatethatChina-originshipmentshavefallenfurthersinceJuly2025(post-OBBBA),whileKorea-origin(largelySDI)shipmentshaverisensequentially,supportinganongoingsourcingshiftasUSregulationsremaineffective.SDI’sLFPcathodecontractwithL&Fimplies~25GWh/yearofUSESSshipmentsby2028-29.

SummaryofESS.relatedstocksunderJ.P.Morgancoverage

Table1:SummaryofESSvaluechainstocksunderJ.P.Morgancoverage

Company

Ticker

CoverAnalyst

JPM

Rating

ESSbusiness

ESSrevenueexposure

ESSvolumeexposure

FY25A

FY26E

FY27E

FY25A

FY26E

FY27E

CATL

300750CH

RebeccaWen

OW

ESSbattery

15%

18%

22%

18%

22%

26%

CALB

3931HK

RebeccaWen

N

ESSbattery

32%

27%

30%

41%

40%

43%

EVEEnergy*

300014CH

RebeccaWen

N

ESSbattery

40%

38%

40%

59%

54%

56%

Gotion

002074CH

RebeccaWen

UW

ESSbattery

19%

21%

24%

30%

33%

37%

BYD-H

1211HK

NickLai

OW

ESSbattery

4%

5%

n/a

20%

27%

n/a

LGES

373220KS

ParsleyOng

OW

ESSbattery

13%

33%

41%

8%

23%

31%

SamsungSDI

006400KS

SonnyLee

OW

ESSbattery

22%

30%

31%

33%

44%

49%

Sungrow

300274CH

AlanHon

OW

PCS+EMS+integration

42%

49%

53%

n/a

n/a

n/a

Deye

605117CH

AlanHon

OW

PCS+battery+packs

74%

86%

89%

n/a

n/a

n/a

Nari

600406CH

StephenTsui

OW

BMS+PCS+EMS+integration

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Xuji

000400CH

StephenTsui

OW

PCS+EPC

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morganestimates.Note:ESSbatterymayincludeBMSorsystemintegration.EVE’sESSvolumeexposurereferstoESSbatteryvolumeovertotalpowerbattery,notincl.consumerbattery.Note:GotionFY25exposureisJPMe.Note:SDI'stotalrevenueincludeselectronicmaterialsandsmallbatterywhilevolumeexcludeselectronicmaterialsandsmall

battery.

4

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

J.PMorgan

USBESSinstallation

Figure1:USBESSinstallation(MW)

Source:EIA

USlithiumbatteryimportsfromChinaandKorea(EV+ESS)

Figure3:US:Koreabatteryimports($mn)+22%y/yin1Q26

Figure2:US:Chinabatteryimports($mn)-62%y/yin1Q26

Source:UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommission.

Source:UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommission.

SummaryoflatestESSbatteryproductionandshipmenttrends

Table2:SummaryofESSbatteryproductiontrends

1Q26

FY25

4M26

GWh

ProductionQ/QY/Y

ProductionY/Y

ProductionY/Y

GlobalESSbatteryproduction

Bybatteryproducercountry:KR/JPbatteryplayers

CHbatteryplayers

224.711%119%

7.9-5%192%216.811%117%

609.176%

19.9121%

589.275%

317.3118%

11.4190%

305.9116%

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

5

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

Table3:SummaryofESSbatteryshipmenttrends

GWh20254M26Y/YMix1Q26Y/YQ/QMix

GlobalESSbatteryshipments638.8309.6109%100%215.9117%2%100%

KR/JPbatteryplayers

17.3

10.2

179%

3%

7.0

173%

8%

3%

CHbatteryplayers

621.5

299.3

107%

97%

208.9

115%

2%

97%

GlobalESSbatteryshipmentsbyend-demandregion638.8309.6109%100%215.9117%2%100%

Chinadomesticdemand

256.8

137.1

123%

44%

96.5

148%

-13%

44%

Ex-Chinademand

381.9

172.4

99%

56%

119.4

97%

17%

56%

Chinaexports(direct+indirect)

364.7

167.2

101%

54%

118.9

102%

18%

55%

JP/KRplayers

17.3

10.2

179%

3%

7.0

173%

8%

3%

Chineseplayershipmentsbyend-demandapplication621.5299.3107%97%208.9115%2%97%

Utility-scale

501.2

235.9

104%

79%

166.1

109%

0%

80%

Commercial&Industrial(C&I)

54.9

33.0

144%

11%

22.3

140%

26%

10%

Telecombasestation

10.0

4.0

33%

1%

2.8

29%

-2%

1%

Residential

51.8

25.4

134%

8%

17.1

248%

3%

8%

Portable

2.5

0.8

-6%

0%

0.6

-6%

-5%

0%

UPS

1.0

0.4

-27%

0%

0.2

-46%

24%

0%

Chineseplayershipmentsbyend-markets621.5299.3107%97%208.9115%2%97%

China

256.8

137.1

123%

44%

96.5

148%

-13%

44%

US

132.7

25.3

-18%

8%

19.0

-25%

-29%

9%

EU

104.2

55.7

167%

19%

38.1

217%

14%

18%

RoW

127.7

79.7

154%

27%

55.3

160%

35%

26%

GWhApr-26Y/YM/MMix

GlobalESSbatteryshipments93.693%14%100%

KR/JPbatteryplayers

3.2

192%

28%

3%

CHbatteryplayers

90.4

90%

14%

97%

GlobalESSbatteryshipmentsbyend-demandregion93.693%14%100%

Chinadomesticdemand

42.1

82%

25%

45%

Ex-Chinademand

51.5

103%

7%

55%

Chinaexports(direct+indirect)

48.3

99%

6%

52%

JP/KRplayers

3.2

192%

28%

3%

Chineseplayershipmentsbyend-demandapplication90.490%14%100%

Utility-scale

69.8

93%

11%

77%

Commercial&Industrial(C&I)

10.7

154%

28%

12%

Telecombasestation

1.2

45%

27%

1%

Residential

8.3

40%

22%

9%

Portable

0.2

-5%

0%

0.2%

UPS

0.2

31%

143%

0.2%

Chineseplayershipmentsbyend-markets90.490%14%100%

China

42.1

82%

25%

47%

US

6.3

15%

5%

7%

EU

17.5

99%

8%

19%

RoW

24.4

144%

5%

27%

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:Utilitystorageincludesphotovoltaicandwindpowerenergystorageandindependentenergystoragepowerstations.

6

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

J.PMorgan

ESSbatterydemandindifferentregions

Figure4:GlobalESSbatteryshipments(monthly)(Unit:Gwh)

Source:ICCSino

Figure5:ChinadomesticdemandESSshipments(monthly)(Unit:Gwh)

Source:ICCSino

Figure6:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryexporttoUS(monthly)(Unit:Gwh)

Source:ICCSino

7

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

J.PMorgan

Figure7:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryexporttoEU(monthly)(Unit:Gwh)

Source:ICCSino

Figure8:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryexporttoEUresidentialmarket(monthly)(Unit:Gwh)

Source:ICCSino

ly)(Unit:Gwh)

Figure9:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryexporttoRoW(marketsexcludingChina,USandEU)(month

Source:ICCSino

ESSbatteryinventorytrends:

Table4:Chineseplayers'ESSbatteryproduction,shipmentandinventorytrends

GWh

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

FY25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Industryproductionvolume

100

133

162

194

217

589

73

64

80

89

Industryshipmentvolume

97

154

166

205

209

622

69

61

79

90

Inventorychanges

3

-21

-4

-10

8

-32

4

3

1

-1

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

8

GlobalESSbatteryvolumetrend

GlobalESSbatteryshipmentsmaintainedstrongmomentum,up109%y/yin4M26ontopof93%y/yinFY25.Growthwasdrivenby:(1)strongChinaexports,supportedbysurgingdemandfromemergingmarketsandtheEU;(2)strongChinadomesticdemand,fueledbyDoc136,Doc114andsupportivenational/provincialpolicies.

Figure10:GlobalESSbatteryproductiontrend

GWh

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryvolumetrend

Chinesebatterymanufacturersheld96%globalsharein1Q26(stablevs.97%in2025/2024).Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryshipmentsgrew107%y/yin4M26,drivenby:(1)robustEUandemergingmarkets’demandsupportedbyincentivesubsidies,(2)supportiveChinadomesticpoliciesandESStargetspost-Doc136andDoc114.

Figure11:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryproductiontrend

GWh

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

9

Figure12:ChineseESSbatteryplayers’marketshareas%ofglobal(basedonproduction)

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Salesbyregionanalysis

China’sdomesticmarketaccountedfor44%oftotalChineseESSbatteryshipmentsin4M26,upfrom40%in2025.Therestoftheworld(RoW)represented27%,theEU19%,andtheUS8%.ExportsalesbyChinesebatterymakerstotheUSdeclined18%in1Q26,reflectingtheimpactofOBBBA.ShipmentgrowthremainedrobustacrossallregionsexcepttheUS:Chinadomesticshipmentsrose123%y/y,EUshipmentsincreased167%y/y,andRoWshipmentsgrew154%y/yin4M26.

Chinesebatteryplayers’shipmentbreakdownbyregion(YTD26):

•CATL:~71%ofshipmentswereoverseas(vs.77%in2025,65%in2024),supportinghigherprofitabilityduetostricterqualityrequirementsandamorefavorablecompetitivelandscape.CATLalsohashigherUS

exposurethantier-2peers.

•Tier-2players:~65–75%ofReptandEVE’sshipmentswereoverseas,with~40–60%toRoW.BYDshipped~60%totheoverseasmarket.Ontheotherhand,CALBshipped~60%totheChinadomesticmarket.

Marketsharebyregion(YTD26):

•Global:CATLranked#1,followedbyEVE,Hithium,andBYD.

•China:Marketishighlycompetitivewithlowconcentration;CATLheld15%share(upfrom14%in2025,downfrom25%in2024).WeexpectCATLtogainsharein2026post-Doc136andwithcapacityexpansion.

•US:CATLledwith~60%share,followedbyHithiumandEVE.

•EU:CATLheld~20%share,followedbyEVE,Rept,andBYD.

•RoW:CATLheld~30%share,followedbyEVE,BYD,Rept,andCALB.

Byend-application:

•Utility-scaleESS:Chinaaccountedfor47%share(vs.42%in2025);regionalandplayerbreakdownssimilartooverallmarket.

•ResidentialESS:EUheld>60%share;China’sresidentialmarketwasnegligible.Rept,EVE,andGreatPowerwerethetopthreeglobally(EU,US,RoW),collectivelyholding67%share,followedbyBYD.

10

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

J.PMorgan

Figure13:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryshipmentbyregion(YTD26)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.YTD=1Q26

Figure15:Chineseplayers’utility.scaleESSbatteryshipmentbyregion(YTD26)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.YTD=1Q26

Chinesebatterymakers’salesmixbyregion

Figure17:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryshipmentbyregion(FY25)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure14:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryshipmentbyregion

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure16:Chineseplayers’residentialESSbatteryshipmentbyregion(YTD26)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.YTD=1Q26

Figure18:Chineseplayers’ESSbatteryshipmentbyregion(YTD26)

CATL EVE BYD ReptCALBGotion

0%20%40%60%80%100%

ChinaUSEURoW

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

11

Marketsharebyregion(amongChinesesuppliersonly)

Figure19:Chineseplayers’marketshareineachESSbatterymarket(FY25)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure21:Chineseplayers’marketshareineachutility.scaleESSbatterymarket(YTD26)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure20:Chineseplayers’marketshareineachESSbatterymarket(YTD26)

China

US

EU

RoW

0%20%40%60%80%100%

CATLEVECALBReptHithiumBYDOthers

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure22:Chineseplayers’marketshareineachresidentialESSbatterymarket(YTD26)

Global

US

EU

RoW

0%20%40%60%80%100%

ReptEVECATL+AmpaceBYDGreatPowerPylonOthersSource:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

GlobalESSbatteryproductionvolumebyplayer

CATLmaintainsitsgloballeadershipinESSbatteryproductionandshipmentvolumes.A10pptdropinmarketsharein2025versus2024canbemainlyattributedtocapacityconstraints,accordingtoICCSinodata.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

12

Figure23:GlobalESSbatteryshipmentbykeyplayer(April-26)

GWh

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:DataarebasedonshipmentvolumeandestimatedbyICCSino.Thiscanvaryfromcompanies’reporteddata.

Figure25:GlobalESSbatterymarketsharebykeyplayer(basedonICCSinoproductionvolume)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:MarketshareisbasedonproductionvolumeandestimatedbyICCSino.Thiscanvaryfromcompanies’reporteddata.

Figure24:GlobalESSbatteryshipmentbykeyplayer(4M26)

GWh

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:DataarebasedonshipmentvolumeandestimatedbyICCSino.Thiscanvaryfromcompanies’reporteddata.

Figure26:GlobalESSbatterymarketsharebykeyplayer(shipmentvolumebasedonSNEResearch)

Source:SNEResearch,J.P.Morgan.Note:CATLvolumeestimatesinFY24andFY25werebasedonsalesrecognition,maynotbecompareddirectlytoFY21-23.

Figure27:GlobalESSbatterymarketsharebykeyplayer(basedonproductionvolume)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:MarketshareisbasedonproductionvolumeandestimatedbyICCSino.Thiscanvaryfromcompanies’reporteddata.

Figure28:GlobalESSbatterymarketsharebykeyplayer(basedon

shipmentvolume)

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.Note:MarketshareisbasedonshipmentvolumeandestimatedbyICCSino.Thiscanvaryfromcompanies’reporteddata.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

13

J.PMorgan

ESSbatterymarketsharebyplayer:Chinesemanufacturerbreakdown

In4M26,CATL’smarketsharefellby2pptsvsFY25;BYD,EVE,Hithium,CALB’smarketshareallfellby2ppts.

Conversely,GreatPower,Svolt,Cornexmarketshareincreasedby2ppts.

Byendapplication:

•Utility-scalemarket:CATLmarketsharedecreased1pptYTD26vsFY25.

•TelecomESS:GotionandNaradaarethetwolargestplayersoftelecomESS.Gotionsawa2pptsmarketsharedecreaseinYTD26vsFY25.

•ResidentialESS:Rept,EVE,GreatPowerandBYD,togetherledtheresidentialESSmarket,altogetherholding~67%ofthemarketshareinYTD26and61%inFY25.

Figure29:Chineseplayers’ESSbatterymarketsharebreakdown(basedonproductionvolume)

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure30:ChineseESSbatterymarketsharebykeyplayer(basedonshipmentvolume)

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure31:Chineseplayers’ESSbatterymarketsharebreakdown

Source:lCCSino,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.PMorgan

14

BYDanalysis

ESSaccountsfor23%ofBYD’stotalbatteryproductionvolume,basedonICCSinoandZEConsulting’sestimatesinYTD26,upfrom17%in2025and11%in2024.

Figure32:BYD’sESSproductionbreakdownbyEVandESSdemand

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure33:BYD’sESSshipmentsbyend.demandapplication

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

CATLanalysis

ESSaccountsfor~23%ofCATL’stotalbatteryproductionvolume,basedonICCSinoandZEConsulting’sestimatesinYTD26(upfrom~21%in2025).

Figure34:CATL’sproductionbreakdownbetweenEVandESSdemand

1/2021

5/2021

9/2021

1/2022

5/2022

9/2022

1/2023

5/2023

9/2023

1/2024

5/2024

9/2024

1/2025

5/2025

9/2025

1/2026

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

EVESS

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

Figure35:CATL’sESSshipmentsbyend.demandapplication

1/2024

3/2024

5/2024

7/2024

9/2024

11/2024

1/2025

3/2025

5/2025

7/2025

9/2025

11/2025

1/2026

3/2026

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

Utility-scale+C&ITelecombasestationResidentialUPS+Portable

Source:ICCSino,J.P.Morgan.

15

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

21May2026

J.PMorgan

Table5:CATL’srecentinvestmentsinESS/A