SK海力士关注HBM4节奏与价格高位持续性

图表1：公司分业务营收与总营收同比增（CY，万亿韩元，%） 图表2：公司各业务营收占比（CY，%）DRAM NAND 其他总营收YoY总营收YoY总营收QoQ198.1%144.3%124.8%93.8%74.8%66.1%47.4%24.1%41.9%35.4%39.1%60.2%43.6%-17.5%24.7%32.1%34.3%-47.1%9.9%7.0%12.5%26.0%10.0%-10.8%5040302010023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1

250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

DRAM NAND 其他9%9%6%6%4%3%3%2%2%2%2%1%1%31%27%29%35%31%28%24%18%21%20%23%21%80%77%78%76%78%60%67%65%74%61%66%69%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表3：公司营收（CY，万亿韩，%） 图表4：公司营收（CY，万亿韩元，%）DRAM营收 QoQ YoY191%160%191%160%146%99%86%61%38%99%71%58%57%51%64%43%21%21%21%31%-50%3%12%11%-12%-4%10.812.114.614.117.119.124.941.04.46.17.67.3403530252015105023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1

250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

8.06.04.02.00.0

NAND闪存营收 QoQ YoY248%158%127%103%45%59%33%39%8%35%33%-27%47%-1%54%46%-50%17%-3%-4%5%-28%-8%2.22.43.34.45.14.94.73.24.74.97.611.0-33%23Q223Q3248%158%127%103%45%59%33%39%8%35%33%-27%47%-1%54%46%-50%17%-3%-4%5%-28%-8%2.22.43.34.45.14.94.73.24.74.97.611.0-33%

300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表5：公司盈利能力（CY，%） 图表6：公司库存情况（CY，万亿韩元，%）库存 QoQ YoY

毛利率 营业利润率 净利润率79.3%79.3%68.8%71.5%52.2%52.4%57.3%53.9%51.5%57.4%58.4%76.7%45.6%38.6%33.3%19.7%23.2%40.0%40.9%46.1.4%42.2%46.6%46.4%40.5%32.7%0.7%3.1%15.4%-16.1%-19.8%25.1%31.5%-40.9% -24.1%-39.4%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1

181616161638.2%151513141413131313139.3% 8.6%11.8%1.9%2.7%0.0%-0.3%0.4%-4.4%-3.5%-9.8%5.1%-1.2%-1.9%7.3%9.8%-1.5%-9.0%-19.4-18.7%-10.7%-7.9%-13.9%1412108642023Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1

50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%公司公告、华泰研究 公司公告、华泰研究图表7：全球现货平均价走势（单位：美元） 图表8：全球Flash现货平均价走势（单位：美元）90 18现货平均价:DRAM:DDR4(16Gb(2Gx8),3200Mbps)现货平均价现货平均价:DRAM:DDR4(16Gb(2Gx8),3200Mbps)现货平均价:DRAM:DDR5(16Gb(2Gx8),4800/5600Mbps)现货平均价:NANDFlash(32Gb4Gx8MLC)现货平均价:NANDFlash(64Gb8Gx8MLC)70 1460 1250 1040 830 620 410 22024-052024-062024-072024-072024-052024-062024-072024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042024-072024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-03、DRAMexchange、华泰研究 、DRAMexchange、华泰研究图表9：HBM全球市场份额美光 海力士 三星16.0%16.7%19.9%19.5%53.6%16.0%16.7%19.9%19.5%53.6%48.6%46.6%39.9%36.2%35.7%40.5%65.8%67.0%64.0%59.0%57.5%57.1%60.0%58.3%50.9%46.4%51.4%53.4%34.2%17.0%19.2%21.1%23.1%3.0%3.8%6.1%8.5%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25各公司公告、VisibleAlpha估计、华泰研究图表10：美光、海力士与三星HBM与DRAM营收（单位：百万美元）美光2QFY233QFY234QFY231QFY242QFY243QFY244QFY241QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY251QFY262QFY26DRAM营收2,7222,6722,7553,4274,1584,6925,3266,4006,1237,0718,98410,81218,768HBM营收471002856701,0751,5892,0032,3162,865HBM/DRAM1.1%2.1%5.4%10.5%17.6%22.5%22.3%21.4%15.3%HBM市场份额3.0%3.8%6.1%8.5%17.0%19.2%21.1%23.1%DRAM市场份额30.8%26.3%23.0%20.6%24.2%21.7%21.4%24.3%25.3%23.5%25.3%23.1%海力士1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26DRAM营收2,2593,4414,4905,6765,5707,7479,1349,8149,52712,66313,59517,28227,845HBM营收1343005237698791,5692,7473,9964,2475,2845,6055,776HBM/DRAM6.0%8.7%11.6%13.6%15.8%20.3%30.1%40.7%44.6%41.7%41.2%33.4%HBM市场份额34.2%46.4%51.4%53.4%57.1%60.0%58.3%50.9%67.0%64.0%59.0%57.5%DRAM市场份额25.6%33.8%37.5%34.1%32.5%35.8%36.7%37.2%39.3%42.1%38.2%36.9%三星1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26DRAM营收3,8594,0644,7407,5557,4269,19310,40910,1698,57410,31312,99618,802HBM营收2593464956716139451,6803,1781,0141,3831,8931,954HBM/DRAM6.7%8.5%10.4%8.9%8.3%10.3%16.1%31.3%11.8%13.4%14.6%10.4%HBM市场份额65.8%53.6%48.6%46.6%39.9%36.2%35.7%40.5%16.0%16.7%19.9%19.5%DRAM市场份额43.7%39.9%39.5%45.4%43.3%42.5%41.9%38.5%35.4%34.3%36.5%40.1%三家总和1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26HBM营收总和3936461,0181,4401,5392,6144,7127,8446,3378,2569,50110,045yoy291%304%363%445%312%216%102%28%DRAM营收总和8,83910,17711,98516,65817,15421,63224,86926,38324,22430,04735,57546,895HBM/DRAM4.4%6.4%8.5%8.6%9.0%12.1%18.9%29.7%26.2%27.5%26.7%21.4%公司公告、华泰研究；HBM收入为VisibleAlpha估计，美光FY26Q2财报对应海力士/三星1Q26财报盈利预测与公司估值DRAMNAND26/27E35%/38%288/350197%/21%，28E38610%DRAM/NAND产能仍受建设周期26/27E净利润64%/66%169/19028E197万亿韩元。图表11：SK海力士盈利预测十亿韩元2022A2023A2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E营业总收入44,62232,76666,19397,147288,371349,552385,850YoY3.78%-26.57%102.02%46.76%196.84%21.22%10.38%DRAM28,52120,84945,17474,904221,763282,015314,833YoY-7.51%-26.90%116.67%65.81%196.06%27.17%11.64%NAND14,1699,72019,10620,69064,50565,43468,839YoY33.18%-31.40%96.57%8.29%211.77%1.44%5.20%毛利润15,628-53331,82858,691220,604249,930264,307毛利率35.02%-1.63%48.08%60.41%76.50%71.50%68.50%销售及管理费用率9.73%10.52%5.93%5.17%4.00%4.00%4.50%研发费用率10.03%11.45%6.70%6.66%3.80%3.90%4.60%营业利润6,809-7,73023,46747,206198,111222,315229,195营业利润率15.26%-23.59%35.45%48.59%68.70%63.60%59.40%归母净利润2,230-9,11219,78942,919168,571190,060197,350归母净利率5.00%-27.81%29.90%44.18%58.46%54.37%51.15%SK海力士公告 预测图表12：SK海力士盈利预测变动十亿韩元前值2026E新值变动 前值2027E新值2028E变动 新值营业总收入213,252288,37135.23%253,347349,55237.97%385,850YoY119.52%196.84%77.33%18.80%21.22%2.41%10.38%DRAM169,124221,76331.12%212,080282,01532.98%314,833YoY124.82%196.06%71.25%25.40%27.17%1.77%11.64%NAND42,38264,50552.20%39,47665,43465.76%68,839YoY107.62%211.77%104.14%-6.86%1.44%8.30%5.20%毛利润149,277220,60447.78%165,942249,93050.61%264,307毛利率70.00%76.50%6.50%65.50%71.50%6.00%68.50%销售及管理费用率6.50%4.00%-2.50%6.50%4.00%-2.50%4.50%研发费用率6.00%3.80%-2.20%5.50%3.90%-1.60%4.60%营业利润122,620198,11161.56%135,540222,31564.02%229,195营业利润率57.50%68.70%11.20%53.50%63.60%10.10%59.40%归母净利润102,938168,57163.76%114,208190,06066.42%197,350归母净利率48.27%58.46%10.19%45.08%54.37%9.29%51.15%华泰研究预测我们认为，AI时代的到来或将重塑行业的需求与供给结构。HBM的高带宽AIDDR5LPDDRRAG检索HBM的供给因TSVHBM3E/4产能几乎提前在前一年敲定，需求呈现高可预见性的非周期性增长，使存储行业首次具备稳增长的产业LPDDRCXLMemoryeSSDAI数据中心形成协同组合，我们认为海力士在核心领域的产品覆盖逐渐转型为系统级内存架构参与者，盈利质量或将因产品结构升级而显著改善。（2026EPE芯片公司靠拢（E一致预期均值E7。基于历史上韩股相对美股平均折价，考虑到YE5（前值4140180万韩元。3/24ADR发行注册，目标今年内美股ADR上市，或能进一步提振估值。图表13：SK海力士、美光和三星估值公司股票代码2026EPB2027E2028E2026EPE2027E2028E2026EPS2027E2028ESK海力士000660KS3.181.801.155.113.693.353.032.221.94美光科技MUUS3.532.041.436.754.744.954.163.013.05三星电子005930KS2.461.711.336.104.374.322.401.891.69HBM可比平均3.061.851.305.994.274.213.202.372.23英伟达NVDAUS16.6610.036.6924.4218.2615.5513.4410.128.67AMDAMDUS6.565.414.3541.9825.6219.229.926.975.48博通AVGOUS16.3510.717.5037.5724.2318.6516.7911.499.07AI芯片可比平均13.198.726.1834.6522.7017.8113.389.537.74注：估值数据为VisibleAlpha一致预期、数据截至美东时间2025年4月22日收盘VisibleAlpha、华泰研究风险提示竞争加剧：HBM3EHBM4领域的加速追赶可能会使市场竞争加剧。如果这些竞争对手在技术上取得重大突破，或能更快、更有效地将产品推向市场，可能会导致海力士的市场份额受到冲击，进而影响公司盈利能力和估值。跨国政策和监管：SK尤其是在中美贸易摩擦、全球供应链中断风险、跨国政策变化等方面。芯片需求不及预期：存储芯片需求规模可能受下游应用端需求影响不及预期，影响存储行业营收及利润。技术路线变更风险：AIGPU/ASIC设计、互联标准及云厂商部署策略。若算力架构、片上缓存或软件调度（HBMHBFCXLMemory）的导入路径，可能影响相关产品需求节奏及公司前瞻性投入的回报。盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E营业收入66,19397,147288,371349,552385,850EBITDA37,32060,527214,727237,912243,567销售成本(34,365)(38,456)(67,767)(99,622)(121,543)融资成本853(3,868)(5,689)(7,510)(9,512)毛利润31,82858,691220,604249,930264,307营运资本变动(3,461)(3,378)(69,600)37,865(57,885)销售及管理费用(3,924)(5,019)(11,535)(13,982)(17,363)税费(4,088)(7,518)(34,921)(39,373)(40,883)研发费用(4,436)(6,466)(10,958)(13,633)(17,749)其他(828)7,6105,6897,5109,512其他收入/支出1,309(45)000经营活动现金流29,79653,373110,206236,404144,800财务成本净额(853)3,8685,6897,5109,512CAPEX(20,010)(31,156)(13,024)(10,769)(8,835)应占联营公司利润及亏损(38)(565)(196)(266)(342)其他投资活动2,006(16,899)12,623(5,966)10,837税前利润23,88550,466203,604229,559238,365投资活动现金流(18,005)(48,054)(402)(16,736)2,002税费开支(4,088)(7,518)(34,921)(39,373)(40,883)债务增加量(7,376)768(41)(41)(41)少数股东损益(8)(29)(112)(127)(132)权益增加量00000归母净利润19,78942,919168,571190,060197,350派发股息(826)(1,681)(8,429)(9,503)(9,868)折旧和摊销(12,582)(13,930)(16,812)(15,863)(14,715)其他融资活动现金流(502)(531)5,6897,5109,512EBITDA37,32060,527214,727237,912243,567融资活动现金流(8,704)(1,445)(2,781)(2,034)(396)EPS(韩元，基本)28,20161,165240,235270,860281,249现金变动3,0873,874107,023217,635146,405年初现金7,58711,20514,924121,947339,582汇率波动影响530(155)000资产负债表年末现金11,20514,924121,947339,582485,988会计年度(韩元十亿)202420252026E2027E2028E存货13,31414,28930,88935,52645,502应收账款和票据13,31218,58571,77137,75583,144现金及现金等价物11,20514,924121,947339,582485,988其他流动资产4,44821,65921,65921,65921,659总流动资产42,27969,458246,266434,523636,294业绩指标固定资产60,15777,50373,61168,65062,824会计年度(倍)202420252026E2027E2028E无形资产4,0194,0493,9683,8933,847增长率(%)其他长期资产13,40025,09725,08724,76324,413营业收入102.0246.76196.8421.2210.38总长期资产77,576106,650102,66697,30691,084毛利润(6,066)84.40275.8713.295.75总资产119,855176,108348,932531,829727,378营业利润(403.58)101.16319.6712.223.09应付账款6,2619,1329,31617,80315,283净利润(317.16)116.89292.7612.753.84短期借款5,8418,7098,6688,6278,586EPS(312.92)116.89292.7612.753.84其他负债12,86419,53819,53819,53819,538盈利能力比率