【商业地产】北京金融街北京西环广场商业顾问服务-88doc

XIHUANPLAZA,BEIJING北京西环广场北京西环广场RETAILCONSULTANCYFINALDRAFTREPORT商业顾问服务商业顾问服务最后草稿最后草稿BEIJINGFINANCESTREETCONSTRUCTIONDEVELOPMENTCOMPANYLIMITED北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司VOLUME1REPORT第一部分报告APRIL2003二零零三年四月CHAPTERPAGENO章节页码10INTRODUCTION简介1211ASSIGNMENT任务介绍12SCOPEOFWORK服务内容13REPORTSTRUCTURE报告结构20PROJECTBACKGROUND项目介绍3721LOCATION地理位置22THEDEVELOPMENT项目背景23CHARACTERISTICSOFSURROUNDINGAREA周边地区特征24ACCESSIBILITY/TRANSPORTLINKS通行情况/交通线路30BEIJINGECONOMICOVERVIEW北京经济分析81431ADMINISTRATIVEDIVISIONSANDPOPULATION北京行政区划和人口32ECONOMICINDICATORS经济分析33OTHERINFLUENCINGEVENTS其他影响因素34MARKETOUTLOOK总述CHAPTERPAGENO章节页码40REALESTATERESEARCH房地产市场研究153041STOCKANDHISTORICALSUPPLYOFRETAILACCOMMODATION商业用房的历史供应量42MAJORRETAILAREAS主要商业区域43FUTURESUPPLYOFRETAILACCOMMODATION未来商业面积的供应44OCCUPANCYRATE入住率情况45RENTAL/PRICEANALYSIS租金/售价分析46GOVERNMENTPOLICY政府政策法规47ANTICIPATEDFUTURETRENDS未来发展趋势预测48IMPLICATIONSFORXIHUANPLAZA对西环广场的影响50CONSUMERSURVEY消费者调查313851APPROACH/METHODOLOGY步骤/方法52DEMOGRAPHICCHARACTERISTICS消费者调研53INCOMEPROFILE收入分析54SPENDINGPATTERNS消费行为55CONSUMERPREFERENCES影响消费者的因素56BRANDANALYSIS品牌分析57VIEWONCURRENTRETAILPROVISION对目前商业面积供应的看法58IMPLICATIONSFORXIHUANPLAZA对西环广场的影响CHAPTERPAGENO章节页码60COMPETITIONANALYSIS竞争对手分析394661APPROACH/METHODOLOGY步骤/方法62EXISTINGCOMPETITORS现时竞争对手63COMPETITIONREVIEW竞争对手分析64CHARACTERISTICSOFEXISTINGCOMPETITION目前竞争对手的特征65ANTICIPATEDFUTURECOMPETITION未来竞争对手66IMPLICATIONSFORXIHUANPLAZA对西环广场的影响70INDUSTRYCONSULTATION行业研究475971APPROACH方法72MARKETOUTLOOK总体概括73PREFERREDRETAILLOCATIONS希望进入的商业区域74RETAILERREQUIREMENTS商家需求75KEYLOCATIONALFACTORS主要的选址因素76XIHUANPLAZAPOSITIVEFACTORS西环广场优势77XIHUANPLAZANEGATIVEFACTORS西环广场劣势78IMPLICATIONSFORXIHUANPLAZA对西环广场的影响CHAPTERPAGENO章节页码80MARKETPOSITIONING市场定位606581COMPETITIVEPOSITION竞争力82CATCHMENTAREAS商圈界定83TARGETAUDIENCE目标消费者84MARKETGAPSANDTARGETRETAILERSFORXIHUANPLAZA西环广场的潜在客户和市场空间90TENANT/MERCHANDISINGMIX客户/商品组合668291MERCHANDISINGSTRATEGY商品组合策略92TENANT/MERCHANDISEMIX客户/商品组合93ANALYSISOFPOTENTIALSALES/RENTALINCOME营业额和租金预测100DESIGNREVIEW设计评审8384101GENERALDESIGNISSUES设计评审的总体因素102CRITICALDESIGNISSUES设计要点110RECOMMENDEDRETAILCONCEPT商业主题建议85APPENDICES附件11ASSIGNMENT任务介绍INSIGNIABROOKE“IB”ANDHUSBANDRETAILCONSULTINGLIMITED“HRC”WEREAPPOINTEDBYTHEBEIJINGFINANCIALSTREETCONSTRUCTIONDEVELOPMENTCOMPANYLIMITED“BFS”INJANUARY2003TOUNDERTAKEARETAILCONSULTANCYASSIGNMENTINCONNECTIONWITHADEVELOPMENTINXIZHIMENDISTRICT,BEIJING,TOBEKNOWNASXIHUANPLAZA显盛保柏和HUSBANDRETAILCONSULTINGLIMITED受北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司的委托，于2003年1月开始为位于西直门地区的西环广场的商业部分提供商业咨询服务。THEPURPOSEOFTHEASSIGNMENTISTOEXAMINEANDINVESTIGATEVARIOUSISSUESAFFECTINGTHEPROPOSEDRETAILELEMENTOFXIHUANPLAZA,ANDTOPROVIDEADVICETOBFSREGARDINGTHEAPPROPRIATEMARKETPOSITIONINGOFTHEPROJECT,THEOPTIMUMMERCHANDISE/TENANTMIXWITHINTHESCHEME,THEDESIGNANDLAYOUTOFINDIVIDUALFLOORSWITHINTHERETAILCENTRE,ASWELLASTHEOVERALLCONCEPTASSOCIATEDWITHTHERETAILELEMENTOFTHEDEVELOPMENT此次服务的目的是研究影响西环广场商业部分的多种因素，为北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司提供西环广场适当的市场定位，适宜的商品组合/客户组合，商场内部每层的设计和平面规划，以及商场整体的概念。VARIOUSDOCUMENTSHAVEBEENSUBMITTEDTOBFSFORREVIEWDURINGTHECOURSEOFTHEASSIGNMENTANDTHEINTERIMFINDINGSOFTHEEXERCISEWEREPRESENTEDTOBFSON12THMARCH2003THISFINALREPORTSETSOUTTHEMAJORFINDINGSANDRECOMMENDATIONSASSOCIATEDWITHTHERETAILCONSULTANCYASSIGNMENT,INCLUDINGBUTNOTLIMITEDTOTHOSEPREVIOUSLYPRESENTEDTOBFS2003年3月12日，一些文件和中期报告已经提交给北京金融街建设开发有限责任公司审阅。此份最终报告中将包括研究的主要发现和针对西环广场的商业建议，并不仅限于之前中期报告的基础上。12SCOPEOFWORK服务内容ITWASAGREEDTHATTHESCOPEOFWORKASSOCIATEDWITHTHISRETAILCONSULTANCYWOULDINVOLVETHEFOLLOWINGTASKS此份商业咨询报告的内容将包括下述内容OMARKETSURVEY市场研究OCOMPETITIONANALYSIS竞争对手分析ODETERMINATIONOFTHECATCHMENTAREA商圈消费预测OCONSULTATIONOFLOCALANDINTERNATIONALRETAILERS国内和国际零售商的访谈研究ODETERMINATIONOFTHEOPTIMUMSIZEANDTHEMINGOFTHECENTRE商场主题与商业规模ODESIGNREVIEW设计评审OANALYSISOFINTERNALLAYOUT内部规划布局的分析ODETERMINATIONOFOPTIMUMMERCHANDISEMIX商品组合建议ODETERMINATIONOFPOTENTIALCENTRESALES预测商场销售额ODETERMINATIONOFPOTENTIALRENTALINCOMEOFTHECENTRE商场未来租金收入的预测13REPORTSTRUCTURE报告结构SECTION2DESCRIBESTHEBACKGROUNDOFTHEPROJECTINCLUDINGTHEPHYSICALCONDITIONSASSOCIATEDWITHXIHUANPLAZA第二章西环广场的项目背景资料介绍。SECTION3SETSOUTAREVIEWANDANALYSISOFECONOMICCONDITIONSINBEIJING第三章北京经济分析SECTION4SETSOUTAREVIEWOFTHERETAILSECTOROFTHEREALESTATEMARKETINBEIJING第四章北京零售房地产市场分析SECTION5DESCRIBESTHEAPPROACH/METHODOLOGYASSOCIATEDWITHTHECONSUMERSURVEYANDSETSOUTTHEMAJORFINDINGSOFTHEEXERCISE第五章解释消费者调查的方法和步骤并且给出调研的主要发现。SECTION6DESCRIBESTHEAPPROACH/METHODOLOGYASSOCIATEDWITHTHECOMPETITIONANALYSISANDSETSOUTTHEMAJORFINDINGSOFTHEEXERCISE第六章解释竞争对手分析的方法步骤论并且给出竞争对手的主要发现。SECTION7SETSOUTTHEAPPROACHTOWARDS,ANDTHEKEYFINDINGSOF,THECONSULTATIONOFLOCALANDINTERNATIONALRETAILERS第七章给出国内/国际零售商访谈的方法和主要发现。SECTION8IDENTIFIESTHEMARKETPOSITIONINGOFXIHUANPLAZA,INCLUDINGTHETARGETMARKETOFTHECENTREANDTHEANTICIPATEDCONSUMERPROFILEOFTHESCHEME第八章西环广场的市场定位以及目标市场和潜在消费者预测SECTION9ESTABLISHESTHEPROPOSEDTENANT/MERCHANDISINGMIXANDESTIMATESTHEPOTENTIALSALESREVENUESANDRENTALINCOMETOBEGENERATEDFROMTHECENTRE第九章建立提议的客户组合/商品组合以及预测商场销售额和租金收入SECTION10HIGHLIGHTSTHECRITICALDESIGNISSUESASSOCIATEDWITHTHECENTREANDPUTSFORWARDRECOMMENDEDSOLUTIONSTHERESOLVETHESEISSUES第十章对商场设计的意见和建议SECTION11PUTSFORWARDTHERECOMMENDEDRETAILCONCEPTANDPRESENTSASUMMARYOFTHEMERITSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEPROPOSAL第十一章商场主题的建议和优势的总结21LOCATION地理位置XIHUANPLAZAISSITUATEDWITHINTHECENTRALPARTOFXIZHIMENINXICHENG,IMMEDIATELYTOTHEWESTOFTHEEXISTINGRAILWAYSTATIONITISBOUNDEDXIZHIMENWEIMAINROADTOTHESOUTH,GAIBANHETOTHENORTH,WEST2NDRINGROADTOTHEEASTANDGAOLIANGBRIDGETOTHEWEST西环广场位于西城区的西直门地区，位于西直门地铁的西侧。西环广场南侧是西直门外大街，北侧是盖板河，东临西二环，西临高粱桥。图21西环广场位置图资料来源显盛保柏THEDEVELOPMENTISSITUATEDINAPROMINENTLOCATIONANDENJOYSAHIGHDEGREEOFVISIBILITYFROMVARIOUSDIFFERENTVANTAGEPOINTS,INPARTICULARFROMTHENORTHWEST,WHERETHEMAJORITYOFTHEDEVELOPMENTSARERELATIVELYLOWRISE该项目位于非常显著的位置，从各个方面的可视性都很好，尤其是从项目的西北侧，多为低密度住宅。THESITEISADJACENTTOAPUBLICTRANSPORTINTERCHANGEANDRAILWAYSTATIONANDTHEREISTHEREFOREAVERYHIGHVOLUMEOFPEDESTRIANFLOWINTHEVICINITYOFTHESITEBASEDUPONANINFORMALENQUIRYWITHAREPRESENTATIVESOFTHESUBWAY,THEREARECURRENTLYAPPROXIMATELY120,000PASSENGERSPERDAYPASSINGTHROUGHTHEXIZHIMENSUBWAY,WITHANADDITIONAL32,000PASSENGERSINTERCHANGINGBETWEENTHESUBWAYANDTHELIGHTRAILTRANSITSTATION项目地块近临公交枢纽、地铁和轻轨，所以在项目周边聚集了大量的人流。根据与北京地铁运营总公司工作人员的确认，目前每天乘坐西直门地铁的人数有12万人次，另外有32,000人次为轻轨和地铁换乘者。表21地铁及轻轨日客流量线路出口人数入口人数总计地铁60,00060,000120,000轻轨6,0006,00012,000西环广场西环广场换乘16,00016,00032,000合计82,00082,000164,000资料来源显盛保柏ITISESTIMATEDTHATAPPROXIMATELY12,000PEOPLEPASSTHROUGHXIZHIMENLIGHTRAILTRANSITSTATIONANDAPPROXIMATELY150,000PEOPLEUSETHEATGRADEROADNETWORKTHEREFORE,THECURRENTDAILYPEDESTRIANFLOWINTHEIMMEDIATEVICINITYOFTHESITEHASBEENASSESSEDTOBEOFTHEORDEROF320,000TO350,000PERSONSASSUMINGAGROWTHRATEOF2025INCONNECTIONWITHTHERAILWAYPATRONAGE,ITISANTICIPATEDTHATTHEPEDESTRIANSINTHEIMMEDIATEVICINITYOFXIHUANPLAZACOULDREACHALEVELOF350,000TO400,000PERSONSPERDAYINTHEMEDIUMTERM预计每天出入西直门轻轨的人数有12,000人次；还有每天约有15万人次使用西直门的路上交通工具，估计每天过往西环地区的人数约有3235万人次。综合西环地区的地上和地下交通，根据西直门地铁工作人员介绍，轻轨乘客每年增长率将在2025之间，预计2006年西环地区每天过往人口将达到35万40万人次，甚至会更多。表22西直门地区公交线路总站发车情况线路首车时间未车时间发车次数3345302230340多次/天360支5302215200多次/天3755152300300多次/天375支5202130200多次/天3925302100200多次/天655002300200多次/天9025302030200多次/天6125452015378次/天722600213072次/天7496002130260次/天9045102030320次/天9335302000235次/天资料来源显盛保柏22THEDEVELOPMENT项目背景XIHUANPLAZAISSITUATEDUPONANELONGATEDSITEWHICHHASANAREAOFAPPROXIMATELY59,900MTHEDEVELOPMENTWILLHAVEATOTALGROSSFLOORAREAOF264,000SQUAREMETRES,OFWHICH97,000SQUAREMETRESISWITHINTHEBASEMENTOFTHEDEVELOPMENT,AND167,000SQUAREMETRESISABOVETHEGROUNDLEVELTHEPROJECTISDUETOBECOMPLETEDINJUNE2005西环广场占地599万平方米,总建筑面积为264万平方米，地上部分167万平方米，地下部分97万平方米，预计竣工时间为2005年6月。XIHUANPLAZAISACOMPREHENSIVEDEVELOPMENTCOMPRISINGTHEFOLLOWINGELEMENTS项目包括以下组成部分OOFFICEACCOMMODATIONOF89,000M写字楼面积为89万平方米OASHOPPINGMALLOF91,000M,ACCOMMODATEDWITHINSEVENFLOORSBETWEENBASEMENTONEANDTHESIXTHFLOOROFTHEDEVELOPMENT商业用房面积为91万平方米,从地下一层到地上六层OAPUBLICTRANSPORTINTERCHANGEAREAOF15,000M公交环路面积15,000平方米O2,000CARPARKINGSPACES2,000个车位23CHARACTERISTICSOFSURROUNDINGAREA周边地区特征THEREAREAWIDERANGEOFDIFFERENTLANDUSESWITHINXIZHIMENANDTHESURROUNDINGAREA,INCLUDINGRESIDENTIAL,COMMERCIAL,CULTURAL,INSTITUTIONALANDTOURISTRELATEDUSES西直门及周边地区集中了多种类型的项目，包括住宅，写字楼，教育，政府机构和旅游景点。XINJIEKOURESIDENTIALAREAISLOCATEDTOTHEEASTOFTHEDEVELOPMENTITISONEOFTHEOLDESTDISTRICTSINBEIJINGWITHLOWDENSITYRESIDENTIALACCOMMODATIONWHICHISNORMALLYOCCUPIEDBYLOWINCOMEGROUPSTHEAREAISCURRENTLYUNDERRECONSTRUCTIONANDANUMBEROFNEWHIGHQUALITYDEVELOPMENTSHAVEBEENBUILTWITHINTHEAREA,SUCHASOCEANPROSPECT,JINHUIJIAYUANANDSILVERCITYTHEAVERAGESALEPRICEASSOCIATEDWITHTHESEDEVELOPMENTSISAPPROXIMATELYRMB8,000PERSQUAREMETRE,WHICHISSIGNIFICANTLYHIGHERTHANTHEAVERAGEOFRMB4,500PERSQUAREMETREINBEIJING新街口住宅区位于西环广场的东侧。以前该地区是北京的老城区，住宅密度比较低，居民消费水平不高。目前西直门地区正在实施城区改造的工程，新建了一些高档住宅，包括远洋风景，金晖嘉园，银都中心等，平均售价为8,027元/平方米，高于全市平均4,500元/平方米几乎一倍。ITSHOULDBENOTEDTHATATOTALOF4,500HIGHCLASSRESIDENTIALUNITSHAVEBEENORWILLBECOMPLETEDWITHIN2KILOMETRESOFXIHUANPLAZABETWEEN2001AND2003THEREFORE,UPONCOMPLETIONOFTHEURBANRECONSTRUCTION,ITISANTICIPATEDTHATTHEAVERAGEINCOMELEVELOFTHEHOUSEHOLDSWITHINTHEAREAWILLINCREASE,ANDTHATTHEREWILLALSOBEANINCREASEINTHEPURCHASINGPOWEROFTHESEHOUSEHOLDS在离西环广场方圆2公里的范围内，从2001年到2003年约有4,500套高档住宅落成，一些高档住宅项目正在建设。所以，随着西环地区高档住宅的建设，该区居民的平均收入在提高，同时消费水平也在不断提高。XIHUANPLAZAISALSOINCLOSEPROXIMITYTOZHONGGUANCUNTOTHENORTHWEST,JINRONGJIETOTHESOUTHEAST,ANDBEIJINGZOOTOTHEWEST除了东边为新街口住宅社区外，西环广场西北临近中关村，东南临近金融街，西边紧靠北京动物园。INADDITION,ANUMBEROFINSTITUTIONSANDUNIVERSITIESARELOCATEDINTHEAREA,INCLUDINGNORTHERNTRANSPORTATIONUNIVERSITY,BEIJINGBUILDINGCONSTRUCTIONRESEARCHINSTITUTE,CHINAUNIVERSITYOFPOSTSANDTELECOMMUNICATIONS,BEIJINGNORMALUNIVERSITY,ANDTHEFINANCEANDBANKINGINSTITUTE西环广场周边地区包括了几所大学，其中有北方交通大学、北京建筑工程学院、中国政法大学，中国邮电大学，北京师范大学以及财政金融学院。四星级的德宝饭店位于西环广场的西侧。24ACCESSIBILITY/TRANSPORTLINKS通行情况/交通线路XIHUANPLAZAISADJACENTTOTHETRANSPORTATIONHUBOFXIZHIMENANDTHEREFOREISEASILYACCESSIBLEVIADIFFERENTMODESOFTRANSPORTATIONBEINGAMAJORINTERCHANGEPOINTBETWEENTHEVARIOUSRAILWAYSINCLUDINGTHESUBWAY,LIGHTTRANSITANDBEIJINGRAILWAY,THEAREAHASVERYGOODACCESSIBILITYVIAANINTEGRATEDRAILTRANSPORTATIONNETWORKTOALLPARTSOFBEIJING西环广场为交通枢纽，所以可以通过不同的交通方式到达。西环广场更是地铁、轻轨的换乘中心，通过轻轨和地铁的立体交叉网络可以到达北京各个部分。INADDITIONTORAILWAYFACILITIES,THEAREAISALSOWELLSERVEDBYALARGENUMBEROFBUSROUTES,ASAPUBLICTRANSPORTINTERCHANGEISLOCATEDADJACENTTOTHELIGHTRAILTRANSITSTATIONASILLUSTRATEDWITHTHELISTOFBUSROUTESINFIGURE22,THECOVERAGEOFTHEBUSROUTESISVERYEXTENSIVEANDEXTENDSTOHUILONGGUANINTHENORTH,XIANGSHANANDSHIJINGSHANTOTHEWEST,WANGJINGTOTHEEASTANDDAXINGHUANGCUNTOTHESOUTH除了轨道交通，西环广场还靠近多路公交线路的总站。图22是西直门公交线路图，公交路线覆盖了大部分的北京城北至回龙观，西至香山和石景山，东至望京，南至大兴黄村。图22西环广场公共交通示意图西环广场交通示意图西环广场交通示意图西环西环广场广场资料来源显盛保柏HOWEVER,ITHASALSOBEENNOTEDTHATTHEREISOFTENTRAFFICCONGESTIONINTHEAREAADJACENTTOTHEXIZHIMENBRIDGE,IMMEDIATELYNEXTTOTHEDEVELOPMENTINADDITION,THEEXISTINGDESIGNOFTHEROADNETWORKINFRONTOFXIHUANPLAZAISNOTTHEOPTIMUMFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHEDEVELOPMENT,ASDRIVERSFINDITDIFFICULTTOTURNINTOTHEDEVELOPMENTWHENTHEYSEETHEDEVELOPMENTFROMTHEBRIDGETHISISSUEWILLNEEDTOBETAKENINTOCONSIDERATIONTHEFINALISINGTHEACCESSARRANGEMENTSTOASSOCIATEDWITHTHEPROJECT但是，西直门立交桥就在西环广场的旁边，经常出现交通堵塞。而且由于立交桥设计的原因，当消费者在桥上看到西环广场时，很难直接到达西环广场。这点希望开发商在最终安排西环广场交通组织时将这个因素考虑进去。INADDITION,WITHREGARDTOPEDESTRIANROUTES,WHILSTACCESSIBLITYFROMTHENORTHISGOOD,THEPEDESTRIANACCESSFORPEOPLEWISHINGTOACCESSTHEDEVELOPMENTFROMTHESOUTHISNOTPARTICULARLYCONVENIENTASARESULTOFTHEEXISTENCEOFTHEMAINROADANDBRIDGETOTHESOUTHOFTHEDEVELOPMENTTHISISSUEWILLNEEDTOBEADDRESSEDWHENCONSIDERINGTHEENTRANCEARRANGEMENTSASSOCIATEDWITHINTHEDEVELOPMENT关于步行路线，对西环广场北部的消费者很方便，但从南面过来的消费者很难越过立交桥到达西环广场。这方面的问题需要开发商在设计商场出入口时考虑进去。INOVERALLTERMS,XIHUANPLAZAHASTHEADVANTAGEOFEXCELLENTTRANSPORTLINKSANDTHEREFOREHASTHEPOTENTIALTOATTRACTASIGNIFICANTNUMBEROFCOSTUMERSTOTHEPROJECT,PARTICULARLYFROMTHENORTHWESTERNPARTOFBEIJING总体来说，西环广场的优势在于极好的交通，所以可以带来大量的客流，尤其是吸引北京西北部的消费者。APPENDICES附件21西环广场周边写字楼项目示意图22西环广场周边住宅项目示意图23西环广场周边酒店示意图24西环广场周边大专院校示意图251西环广场附近交通线路列表（一）252西环广场附近交通线路列表（二）31ADMINISTRATIVEDIVISIONSANDPOPULATION行政区划和人口BEIJING,THECAPITALOFCHINA,HASASITEAREAOF16,8078SQUAREKILOMETRESANDCOMPRISES18DISTRICTSANDCOUNTIESTHECITYCANBEDIVIDEDINTO4REGIONS北京市总面积为16,8078平方公里，总共包括了18个区、县，可分为四个区域OCITYPROPERDONGCHENGDISTRICT,XICHENGDISTRICT,CHONGWENDISTRICTANDXUANWUDISTRICT市区东城区，西城区，崇文区和宣武区OCITYAREACHAOYANGDISTRICT,HAIDIANDISTRICT,FENGTAIDISTRICT,ANDSHIJINGSHANDISTRICT城区朝阳区，海淀区、丰台区和石景山区OINNERSUBURBSMENTOGOUDISTRICT,FANGSHANDISTRICT,TONZHOUDISTRICT,SHUNYIDISTRICT,CHANGPINGDISTRICT,ANDDAXINGDISTRICT郊区门头沟区，房山区，通州区，顺义区，昌平区和大兴区OOUTERSUBURBSPINGGUCOUNTY,HUAIROUCOUNTY,MIYUNCOUNTY,ANDYANQINGCOUNTY远郊区县怀柔区，平谷县，密云县和延庆县THEURBANAREAOFBEIJINGHASEXPANDEDRAPIDLYINTHEPAST10YEARSANDTHECURRENTPLANNEDBOUNDARYOFTHEURBANAREAEXTENDSTODINGFUZHUANGINTHEEAST,SHIJINGSHANINTHEWEST,QINGHEINTHENORTHANDNANYUANINTHESOUTH,COMPRISINGANAREAOF1,041SQUAREKILOMETRESTHEFUTURECENTRALCITYAREAWILLPRIMARILYBETHEAREAWITHINTHE4THRINGROADTHECURRENTBUILTUPAREAINBEIJINGISAPPROXIMATELY500SQUAREKILOMETRES,ACCOUNTINGFOR50OFTHEPLANNEDAREA,OFWHICH158SQUAREKILOMETRESISLOCATEDWITHINTHE3RDRINGROAD目前北京规划市区范围是东至定福庄，西至石景山，北至清河，南至南苑，规划面积1,041平方公里，未来的市中心地区大体在四环路内。目前已经建成区面积为490平方公里，已经完成规划面积的47，其中三环以内的面积为158平方公里。图31北京行政区划图资料来源显盛保柏THEREGISTEREDPOPULATIONOFBEIJINGIN2002WAS1136MILLIONPEOPLE,WITHANADDITIONALITINERANTPOPULATIONOFAPPROXIMATELY3MILLIONPEOPLETHETOTALPOPULATIONRESIDINGINBEIJINGIN2002WAS1440MILLIONASATTHEENDOF2002,THEREGISTEREDPOPULATIONINTHECITYPROPERWAS241MILLIONANDTHATINTHECITYAREAWAS449MILLION,WITHANAVERAGEHOUSEHOLDSIZEOF3PERSONSTHEPOPULATIONDENSITYINTHECITYPROPERANDCITYAREAIS27,700PERSONSPERSQUAREKILOMETREAND3,500PERSQUAREKILOMETRERESPECTIVELY2002年，北京市户籍人口为1,1363万人，流动人口约有300万人。2002年底，北京常住人口有1,4232万人口。2002年底，北京市区户籍人口241万人，人口密度是27,700人/平方公里；城区户籍人口449万人，人口密度是3,500人/平方公里。全市平均户均人口3人。THEPOPULATIONOFBEIJINGHASGROWNBYAPPROXIMATELY0192PERANNUMOVERTHELASTTENYEARSTHEREHASALSOBEENAGRADUALSHIFTOFPOPULATIONFROMTHECITYPROPERTOSUBURBANAREASASARESULTOFTHEEXTENSIVEURBANREGENERATIONPROGRAMMEBEINGPURSUEDINBEIJINGITISEXPECTEDTHATTHEPOPULATIONLEVELWILLBERELATIVELYSTABLEINTHESHORTTOMEDIUMTERM,ANDTHATTHEREDISTRIBUTIONOFTHEPOPULATIONTOTHESUBURBANAREASWILLCONTINUE北京的人口在过去十年间平均年增长率是0192。由于北京市区重新建设的原因，北京人口也出现了从市区向郊区移动的趋势。预计北京的人口在中短期内比较稳定，从长期发展看，继续人口郊区化。INTHEPAST10YEARS,THEREGISTEREDPOPULATIONOFBEIJINGHASGROWNFROM104MILLIONIN1992TO1136MILLIONIN2002,ANAVERAGEINCREASERATEOF0192PERANNUAL在过去的10年间，北京户籍人口数量由1,0449万（1992年）增长到1,1363万（2002年），平均年增长率为0192。GIVENTHATRESIDENTIALDEVELOPMENTISCURRENTLYFOCUSEDINTHESUBURBANAREA,ASAGAINSTTHECITYPROPER,THEOVERALLPOPULATIONOFTHECITYISGROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHANTHEPACEOFINCREASEINTHECITYPROPERAPPROXIMATELY381MILLIONPEOPLELIVEDINTHECITYAREAIN1994,WHICHHASINCREASEDTO449MILLIONIN2002,WHILSTTHEPOPULATIONOFTHECITYPROPERHASDECREASEDFROM244MILLIONIN1994TO241MILLIONIN2002由于北京住宅发展向城区和郊区发展，所以城区人口增长速度高于市区。1994年北京市城区人口为3815万人，2002年增长到4486万人；同时1994年的市区人口为2436万，2002年下降为2406万人。32ECONOMICINDICATORS经济分析IGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTGDP国内生产总值BEIJINGHASEXPERIENCEDRAPIDECONOMICGROWTHINTHEPAST20YEARSTHEGDPINCREASEDFROMRMB5989BILLIONIN1991TORMB28457BILLIONIN2001,WITHANAVERAGEGROWTHOF1086PERANNUMIN2002,BEIJINGACHIEVEDAGDPOFRMB313BILLION,REPRESENTINGAGROWTHOF102FROMTHEPREVIOUSYEARACCORDINGTOTHEPRELIMINARYFORECASTOFTHESTATISTICSBUREAU,THEGDPWITHINTHEPERIODBETWEENJANUARYANDFEBRUARY2003WASRMB3967BILLION,ANINCREASEOF121OVERTHESAMEPERIODIN2002在过去的20年内，北京的经济高速发展，国内生产总值由1991年的59889亿元，增长到2001年的2,8457亿元，平均年增长率为1086。2002年，北京国内生产总值已经达到了3,130亿元，较2001年同期增长102。根据北京统计局的初步统计，2003年12月，北京国内生产总值为3967亿元，较去年同期增长121。图32北京国内生产总值增长情况资料来源北京统计年鉴THEGDPPERCAPITAINBEIJINGHASINCREASEDRAPIDLY,FROMRMB5,782IN1991TORMB27,746IN2002,WITHANAVERAGEGROWTHRATEOF1008PERANNUMOVERTHEPAST12YEARS北京人均国内生产总值也从1991年的5,782元快速增长到2002年的27,746元，这12年间的平均年增长速度为1008。ITISANTICIPATEDTHAT,GIVENTHERAPIDGROWTHOFTHEECONOMYOVERTHEPAST20YEARSANDTHEFACTTHATTHEECONOMYINBEIJINGISNOWMOREMATURE,THEPACEOFECONOMICGROWTHINBEIJINGWILLNOWSTABILIZEBASEDUPONTHE“TENTHFIVEYEARPLANOFBEIJING”20012005,THEANNUALGROWTHRATEOFGDPISEXPECTEDTOBEMAINTAINEDATALEVELOFAPPROXIMATELY9PERANNUMDURINGTHISPERIOD北京的经济在经过20年高速增长后越来越成熟，预计今后北京经济发展速度将放缓。根据北京“第十个五年计划（20012005）”，北京国内生产总值的平均年增长速度为9。IITOTALRETAILSALES社会消费品零售总额THETOTALRETAILSALESINBEIJINGINCREASEDFROMRMB3578BILLIONIN1991TORMB1594BILLIONIN2001,REPRESENTINGANINCREASEOF1627PERANNUMTHETOTALRETAILSALESIN2002EQUATEDTORMB1745BILLION,ACCOUNTINGFOR557OFTHEGDPOFBEIJINGTHETOTALRETAILSALESBETWEENJANUARYANDFEBRUARY2003REPRESENTEDASUMOFRMB3229BILLIONITISANTICIPATEDTHATTHERETAILSALESFORTHEWHOLEOF2003WILLBERMB1938BILLION,ARATEOFGROWTHOF11OVERTHATOF2002北京社会消费品零售总额1991年为3578亿元，2001年为1,5935亿元，平均年增长率为1627。2002年北京社会消费品零售总额5997098641,0841,3951,6161,8102,0112,1742,4792,8183,1309512112411011010210298969211613505001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120020246810121416上上上上上上上上上上上上上上100为1,7448亿元，占北京国内生产总值的557。2003年12月，北京社会消费品零售总额为3229亿元，预计全年为1,938亿元，预计较2002年增长11。图33北京历史社会消费品零售总额（19962002）9241,0521,1951,3131,4431,5941,74511613913799991049502004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0001996199719981999200020012002051015上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上上100上资料来源北京统计局ACCORDINGTOTHE“TENTHFIVEYEARPLANOFBEIJING”,THEGOVERNMENTPREDICTSTHATTOTALRETAILSALESWILLMAINTAINANANNUALGROWTHRATEOF10PERANNUMBETWEEN2001AND2005ITISANTICIPATEDTHATTHISSTEADYGROWTHRATEWILLENHANCETHEDEVELOPMENTOFTHERETAILMARKETINBEIJING根据“北京第十个五年计划”，预计在2001年2005年间，北京社会消费品零售总额的平均年增长率维持在10的水平。这种稳定的增长率将刺激北京零售市场的发展。IIIDISPOSABLEINCOME可支配收入ACCORDINGTOTHEBEIJINGSTATISTICSYEARBOOK2002,THEANNUALDISPOSABLEINCOMEOFURBANRESIDENTSINBEIJINGINCREASEDFROMRMB2,040IN1991TORMB12,46392IN2002THEDISPOSABLEINCOMEFORURBANRESIDENTSINFEBRUARY2003WASRMB1,436PERMONTH根据北京统计年鉴的数据，1991年北京城镇居民可支配收入为2,040元/月，2002年城镇居民人均可支配收入已经增长到12,46392元/月。2003年2月，北京城镇居民可支配收入1,436元/月。图34北京历年城镇居民收入和消费性支出情况（19952002）资料来源北京统计局ITSHOULD,HOWEVER,BENOTEDTHELEVELOFDISPOSABLEINCOMEASPUBLISHEDBYTHEGOVERNMENTMAYNOTREFLECTTHELEVELOFAFFORDABILITYANDTHELIVINGSTANDARDOFTHEPOPULATIONASTHEINCOMERECORDEDBYTHEGOVERNMENTDOESNOTINCLUDEOTHERADDITIONALWELFAREPAYMENTSANDALLOWANCESENJOYEDBYEMPLOYEESSUCHASHOUSING,MEDICAL,ETC,WHICHARECOMMONLYOFFEREDTOEMPLOYEESINGOVERNMENTDEPARTMENTS,ASWELLASSTATEOWNEDANDDOMESTICPRIVATECOMPANIES无论如何，在此值得注意的是，统计年鉴中公布的人均可支配收入并不能真正地反映出北京居民的生活水平和实际收入，因为政府统计的数据中可能并不完全包括政府工作人员、外资和国营企业员工的金融收入，住房、医疗补贴，奖金等等。IVCONSUMERPRICEINDEX消费价格指数TH