生成式AI带来的人才战略意义+What+Generative+AI+Means+for+Your+Talent+Strategy

WhatGenerativeAIMeansforYourTalentStrategy

byHelenPoitevinandPieterdenHamer

ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

TheacceleratedinvestmentingenerativeAIhasunsurprisinglyledtoconcernsabouthowthistechnologywillaffectjobs,

includingthoseoncethoughtimpervioustoautomation.Someroleswillceasetoexist,whilemanyotherswillchangeradically,

encompassingnewtasksandrequiringnewskills.Facedwith

apotentiallyhistoricdisruption,executiveleadersshouldshapetheirtalentstrategiesusinganewframeworkforunderstandinggenerativeAI’simpactontheworkforce.

AIapplicationshavebeenaffectingworkersforyears,butthistimefeelsdifferent.

Duringthelate2010s,fewexecutiveleaderswouldclaimpubliclythatlayoffswerein

anywayduetoinvestmentsinAIorautomation.Theywouldusuallysaytheyidentifiedimpactedstaff,retrainedthemandshiftedthemtootherroles.Today,however,as

useofgenerativeAItoolssuchasChatGPTspreadsrapidly,leadersaremorewillingtoexplicitlycalloutAIasoneofthereasonspositionswilldisappear—whetherthetechnologyistrulytheculpritornot.1,2

2ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

AssessImpactWithinYourBusinessContext

GenerativeAIwillaffecteachorganizationdifferently.Executiveleadersmustconsider

theirenterprise’suniquesituationastheyanticipatetheeffectsofthistechnology(andAImorebroadly)ontheworkforce.MostavailablemodelsformeasuringautomationriskfromAIanalyzeonlyexistingrolesandestimatethepotentialforAItoreplacecurrent

employees.Whilethesemodelshavemerit,theyomittwoimportantfactorsinanyexecutiveleader’stalentdecisions:

•Demanddriversshowwhetheryourorganizationshouldscaleupproductsandservices,scalethemdownorholdthemsteady.

–Talentimpact:Futuredemandforspecificcapabilitieswithinyourorganization,industryorbroadermarketwilldeterminewhereyouinvestintalentand

technology.Demandalsoaffectsyourabilitytomeetyourtalentneeds:Sought-afterworkersarehardertoattract,andlow-demandjobsbecomelessdesirableandmorechallengingtofill.

•Technologydriversrelatetohowyourorganizationimplementsandusestechnology.Theyaffecthowyouorganizeworkwithinandacrossteams.

–Talentimpact:OrganizationsadoptinggenerativeAIwilldesignrolesandworkflowsdifferentlydependingonwhattheyareusingitfor.Executiveleadersmustalso

accountforthecombinationsofskillsavailablewithintheorganizationandthewiderlabormarket.

GenerativeAIwilldirectlyaltertaskssuchascontentcreation,questionanswering

anddiscovery,translation,documentsummarizationandsoftwarecoding.Buthow

itwilltransformindividualjobsismorechallengingtopredict.Forexample,knowing

generativeAIwilldisruptcopywritingandcustomersupportdoesn’ttellyouwhatit

meansforthepeopleprovidingthoseservicesinyourorganization.Yourbusiness

contextwilldeterminewhetheryouusethetechnologytomaketheseemployeesmoreproductive,phaseoutjobsthatcanbedonebymachinesorreconfiguretheseroles

toprovidenewtypesofservices.

ThefollowingstepswillhelpexecutiveleadersidentifytheimpactofAIontheir

organization’sworkforceandadapttheirbusiness,talentandtechnologystrategiesaccordingly.

3ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

Step1:ForecastDemand

First,examinehowyouexpectdemandforagivenproductorservicetochange,basedonforecastbusinessconditionsandcompanystrategy.Applythisexerciseattheenterprise,

businessunit,departmentorteamlevel,andforboth

internal-andexternal-facingservices.Thishelpsclarify

howmuchagiventeamwillneedtodeliverinthefuture.

Demandforaproductorservicecouldbe:

•Increasing/High—Anoffering’ssuccessisdrivinga

markedriseindemand,withhighgrowthtargets.This

demandmayalsobeforaparticularcapability—suchasAI,softwareorotherdigitaltechnologies—thatneedstoscaletoanincreasingnumberofdomains.

–Examples:Medicaldiagnostics,softwareengineering,AIdevelopment,promptengineers

•Stable/Core—Volumeandfutureevolutionare

predictable,possiblywithsomevariabilitylinkedtoseasonalityorsimilarfactors.Therearenoplansforeitherhighgrowthorphasingouttheservice.

–Examples:Payrollservices,customerservice

supportingstablemarkets,internalITservices,insuranceclaimsprocessing

•Decreasing/Low—Theserviceorproducttargetsa

nichemarketorisbeingphasedout.Ongoingsupportisrequired,buttherearenoplansforinvestingfurthertotryscalinguptoabiggeroffering.Thisincludes

instanceswhereacompanycontinuestoserveexistingcustomersforaproductorservicebutnolongeroffersittonewones.

–Examples:Legacyproductsnolongersoldbutwithmultidecadecontractsthatneedtobehonored;

nicheproductssuchasparametricinsurance

Step2:EnvisionAITechnology

Applications

Afterforecastingdemand,formulateyourfuturevision

forhowyouwillapplygenerativeAIandAImorebroadly.Thishelpsidentifythedegreeofimpactonagiventeamorrole.Willpeopleincertainjobsbereplaced?Willthey

neednewskills?Howcriticalwillitbeforaworker’ssuccessandcompetitivepositioningthattheyusegenerativeAIeffectively?

ConsiderwhatyourplannedapplicationsofAImeanforexistingprofessionsandindustries.

Youcould:

•Staywithintheirboundaries—Manyemerginguse

casesforgenerativeAIarefarfromtransformative.Forexample,arecruitercoulduseembeddedgenerativeAIfunctionalityinatalentsourcingtooltoautomatically

applysearchcriteriabasedonnaturallanguageinput,

withouthavingtomanuallyapplyfilters.Thischange

simplymakesanexistingworkpatterneasierandfaster.

•Gobeyondtheirboundaries—GenerativeAI,alongsideotherAItechniques,canchangehowpeopleaccess

productsandservices.Forexample,AIcanhelpcreate

webpages,videos,appsorothercontentquickly,withoutrequiringanytechnicalknowledge.Thiscapabilityallowsforafullypersonalizedcustomerexperience.

•Createnewboundaries—Autonomousbusiness,

inwhichAImanagesorcarriesoutthemajorityof

operations,hasalreadystartedtoemerge.Machine

customers,augmentedmanagersandautonomous

operationsarecentralfeaturesofthesenewbusinessmodels.Weanticipatethelaborratiotosubstantiallychange,withenterprisesneedingfewerpeopleto

generatethesameamountofrevenue.

4ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

BusinessContextandDemandVolumes

WithintheBoundaries:

PushingBoundaries:

BreakingBoundaries:

Shiftingrolesthroughautomation

Newlyconfiguredroles

Game-changingroles.

andaugmentationofexistingwork

throughtransformationand

Autonomousbusinesswith

patternsandtasks.

augmentation;newwork

patterns.

significantlylowerlabor-to-revenueratio.

ConsideraMatrix

ofAIFutures

Combiningthesedemandandtechnologyfactorscreatesarangeofsituations

(seeFigure1).Withineachorganization,andevenwithineachteam,multiple

casesarelikelytoapply.Foreach

situation,specificinvestmentsintalent

developmentandworkforceplanningwillhelpexecutivesleadtheirteamsthroughanAI-drivenwaveoftransformation.

WeexpectgenerativeAItohave

twobroadeffectsontheworkforce,

eachwithsignificantimplicationsfor

executiveleaders.

»Figure1:TalentImpactMatrixforGenerativeAIandAIMoreBroadly

LowAIImpactHighAIImpact

HowAIIsAppliedinIndustriesandProfessions

Increasing/High:

Scaleupandgrow

tomeetdemand.

Stable/Core:

Scalethroughefficiencyandproductivitygains.

ScaleUp:

ProductivitygoesupwithAIand

humansaccomplishingmoreworkwithlesseffort.Stillhiringtomeettargets.

ShiftandNotReplace:

Workshifts.Manyarenotreplaced,andmostcomplexworkremains.

Rolesmustbereconfigured,

oftentowardassistedmultiskilledgeneralistroles.

LastOnesStanding:

Hardtoattracttalentandlikelylosingtalent.Automationisanopportunitytomaintainservicedespitetalentshortage.

NewImpactLevel:

Highperformanceexpectationsinmanynewlyconfiguredroles,transformedthroughAIand

humanpartnership.

RunSmarter:

Increasedperformance

expectationsperworkerintermsofreachorimpact.Onlythose

whocanworkeffectivelywithAIremaincompetitive.

NicheInnovations:

Hardtoattractandfindtalentinhyperspecializedmarkets.Mayopenupsomenewmarketsthatcannowbeservedprofitably.

Symbiosis:

Machineeconomywithfewemployeescomparedto

impact,reachandrevenue.Topdesignteamsrequired.

Synergy:

Newpocketsmayemergeformachinecustomersandautonomousoperations.

Innovativeredesigned

teamsrequired.

Experiments:

Rare,butmicroniche

investments.Fewemployees.

Decreasing/Low:

Scaledownormaintainlowniche-styleactivity.

Source:Gartner

aDemandcanbeforinternalorexternalservices,attheorganization,businessunitordepartmentlevel.Itdrivesactivityvolumesandportfolioprioritization.

5ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

GenerativeAIWithin

theCurrentBoundaries

UsinggenerativeAIinthiswaywillresultintheshiftingofrolesovertime.Fewerpeoplewillbeneededto

completethesameamountofwork.MasslayoffsdrivensolelybygenerativeAIadoptionareunlikely,especiallyconsideringthatlabormarketsremainhistorically

tight.However,peoplewholeavejobsaffectedbythetechnologyarelesslikelytobereplaced.Employees

hiredintotheseroleswillbeexpectedtoaccomplish

higherworkvolumesmorequickly.Itwillalsobecomeincreasinglychallengingtofindtalentwillingtotakeonjobsthatautomationwilllikelydisplace.

ExecutiveleadersimplementinggenerativeAIinthiscontextshouldanticipateheadcountreductionsovertime.Theywillneedtoredesignjobsdisplacedor

disruptedbyAIintosmallernumbersofmultiskilledgeneralistrolesthatencompassawiderrangeof

capabilitiesandofferamorecompellingemployeevalueproposition.

6ExcerptfromGartnerBusinessQuarterly3Q23

GenerativeAIBeyond

theCurrentBoundaries

Second,usinggenerativeAItopushtheboundariesof

professionsandindustries,orevenbreakthem,willset

offaraceforperformance.Expectationswillbehigherin

newlyconfiguredroles,andorganizationswon’tbeable

tocompetewithoutusingAI.Thequestionwillbenot

whichtasksgotoAIandwhichtohumans,buthowpeoplecanuseAIcreativelytoreachnewheights.New,highly

specializedjobswillemergewheregenerativeAIand

relatedtechnologiesareusedcreativelyandstrategicallytotransformwhatteamsdoandwhattheirclientsexpect.Thisrequiresarichblendofbus