国际货币基金组织（IMF）：央行数字货币（CBDC）对货币政策传导的影响

ImplicationsofCentralBank

DigitalCurrenciesforMonetary

PolicyTransmission

MitaliDas,TommasoManciniGriffoli,FumitakaNakamura,JuliaOtten,GabrielSoderberg,JuanSole,andBrandonTan

NOTE/2023/010

FINTECHNOTE

ImplicationsofCentralBank

DigitalCurrenciesforMonetary

PolicyTransmission

MitaliDas,TommasoManciniGriffoli,FumitakaNakamura,JuliaOtten,GabrielSoderberg,JuanSole,andBrandonTan

September2023

©2023InternationalMonetaryFund

ImplicationsofCentralBankDigitalCurrenciesforMonetaryPolicyTransmission

Note2023/010

PreparedbyMitaliDas,TommasoManciniGriffoli,FumitakaNakamura,JuliaOtten,GabrielSoderberg,

JuanSole,andBrandonTan*

Names:Das,Mitali,author.|Mancini-Griffoli,Tommaso,author.|Nakamura,Fumitaka,author.|Otten,Julia,author.|Söderberg,Gabriel,1978-,author.|Sole,Juan,author.|Tan,BrandonJoel,author.|InternationalMonetaryFund,publisher.

Title:Implicationsofcentralbankdigitalcurrenciesformonetarypolicytransition/MitaliDas,TommasoManciniGriffoli,FumitakaNakamura,JuliaOtten,GabrielSoderberg,JuanSole,BrandonTan.

Othertitles:ImplicationsofCBDCsformonetarypolicytransition.|Fintechnotes.

Description:Washington,DC:InternationalMonetaryFund,2023.|NOTE/2023/010.|Includesbibliographicalreferences.

Identifiers:ISBN:

979840025279297984002531269798400253157

(paper)

(ePub)

(WebPDF)

Subjects:LCSH:Monetarypolicy—Technologicalinnovations.|Finance—Technologicalinnovations.

Classification:HG230.3.D32023

DISCLAIMER:FintechNotesofferpracticaladvicefromIMFstaffmemberstopolicymakersonimportantissues.TheviewsexpressedinFintechNotesarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Das,Mitali,TommasoManciniGriffoli,FumitakaNakamura,JuliaOtten,GabrielSoderberg,JuanSole,andBrandonTan.2023.“ImplicationsofCentralBankDigitalCurrenciesforMonetaryPolicyTransmission.”IMFFintechNote2023/010,InternationalMonetaryFund,

Washington,DC.

Publicationordersmaybeplacedonline,byfax,orthroughthemail:

InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationsServices

P.O.Box92780,Washington,DC20090,USA

Tel.:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201

E-mail:publications@

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elibrary.IMF.org

*BrandonTanandMitaliDasaretheleadauthorsofthisFintechNote.

Contents

I.IntroductionandSummaryofFindings 2

II.ConceptualFramework 5

III.DesignFeaturesofCBDCs 6

IV.ImpactontheMacroeconomicEnvironment 8

V.TightnessofFinancialConditions 13

VI.TransmissionChannelsofMonetaryPolicy 16

VII.FurtherConsiderationsonOperations,Regimes,andCBDCDesigns 20

References 26

TABLESANDFIGURES

Figure1.ConceptualFramework 5

Figure2.FeaturesofCBDCs 6

Figure3.ImpactofCBDCsontheMacroeconomicEnvironment 8

Figure4.StaticPartialEquilibriumModel–BasedAnalysisofBankDisintermediation 10

Figure5.DynamicGeneralEquilibriumModel–BasedAnalysisofBankDisintermediation 11

Figure6.HeterogeneousHouseholdsandFinancialInclusion 12

Figure7:LevelEffectsontheTightnessofFinancialConditions 13

Figure8:MainChannelsofMonetaryPolicyTransmission 16

Figure9:ImpactonTransmissionChannelsofMonetaryPolicy 17

Figure10:InterestRate–BasedOperationalFrameworks 20

Figure11:MonetaryPolicyRegimes 23

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I.IntroductionandSummaryofFindings

Thelevelofglobalinterestincentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDCs)isunprecedented.Accordingtoa2022surveyfromtheBankofInternationalSettlements(BIS),93percentofcentralbanksare

exploringCBDCs,and58percentreportthattheyarelikelytoormightpossiblyissuearetailCBDCintheshortormediumterm(KosseandMattei2023).Indeed,morethan100countriesareexploringretail

CBDCissuance.SeveralcentralbankshavealreadylaunchedpilotsorevenissuedaCBDC.

TheimplicationsofCBDCsformonetarypolicytransmissionisatopicofsignificantinterestfor

IMFmembercountries.Monetarypolicytransmissionplaysacriticalroleintheoverallfunctioningofaneconomybecauseitdetermineshowchangesinpolicymeasuresandinterestratesimplementedby

centralbanksaffectkeyeconomicvariablessuchasinvestment,consumption,inflation,andemployment.

TheproposedfoundationalprinciplesforCBDCsstipulatethatCBDCdesignsshouldalignwithcentralbankmandatestoachievepricestability(lowandstableinflation)andtohelpmanageeconomic

fluctuations(BIS,2020).

CBDCscouldbringbothopportunitiesandchallengestomonetarypolicytransmission.Forsomecountries,enhancingmonetarypolicyeffectivenessisanimportantmotivationforCBDCexploration;forothers,motivationsincludemodernizingthefinancialsystem,reducingfuturerisksassociatedwithrapiddigitalization,andloweringthecostsofperson-to-personmonetarytransfers.Atthesametime,some

countriesviewthepotentialforCBDCstoweakenmonetarypolicytransmissionasarisk.

ThisnoteprovidesaconceptualanalysisoftheimplicationsofCBDCsformonetarypolicy.In

particular,itfocusesontheimplicationsofaretailCBDC,whichwouldbeavailabletothegeneralpublicandisthescaleofaccessthatmostcentralbanksareconsidering.

1

Thebaselinedesignconsideredinthispaperisanon-remuneratedCBDCwithpossiblecapsonindividualholdingsandaccessibleonlyintheissuingjurisdiction(themostcommondesignamongcentralbanksadoptingorpilotingCBDCsthusfar).TheissuanceofretailCBDCscanimpactkeypartsofcountries’macroeconomicenvironment.Inturn,thesechangesinthemacroeconomicenvironmentmayaffectboththetightnessoffinancial

conditions(uponissuance)andthetransmissionofmonetarypolicythroughthemainchannels:theinterestratechannel,banklendingchannel,assetpricechannel,andexchangeratechannel.

CBDCsmayhaveanimpactoncountries’macroeconomicenvironmentinseveralways.CBDCsofferasafestoreofvalueandefficientmeansofpayment,whichcanincreasecompetitionfordepositfunding,increasebanks’shareofwholesalefunding,andlowerbankprofits.CBDCsalsohavethe

potentialtobolsterfinancialinclusiontotheextentthattheycanaddressthebarrierstoinclusionfortheunbanked.Indollarizedoreuroizedeconomies,orineconomieswheretheadoptionofcryptoassetsiswidespread,theintroductionofCBDCscouldalsoencourageagreateruseofthelocalcurrency,

1BISsurveydatashowthatcentralbanksareparticularlyinterestedinretailCBDCs:allcentralbanksconductingworkonCBDCseitherlookatbothwholesaleandretailCBDCsorfocussolelyonaretailCBDC.

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particularlyinlieuofotherformsofdigitalmoneydenominatedinforeigncurrencyorcryptoassets(thatis,“de-dollarization/de-cryptoization”).

Changesinthemacroeconomicenvironmentcouldleadtoeitheratighteningoralooseningof

financialconditions.Increasedcompetitionforbankdepositfunding,increasedwholesalefunding,andlowerbankprofitswouldtightenfinancialconditions.Ontheotherhand,increasedfinancialinclusion

couldloosenfinancialconditions.Decreasingdollarization/cryptoizationhasanambiguousimpactonfinancialconditions.

ThecentralbankshouldcloselymonitortheeffectsofCBDCissuanceonthemacroeconomic

environmentsothatitcanreacttomaintainagivenleveloffinancialconditions,ifneeded.Asit

canwithanyothereconomicshock,thecentralbankcanchoosetoadjustitspolicyinstrumentsto

achieveitsobjectivesasthemacroeconomicenvironmentevolves.GiventhattheintroductionofCBDCscouldeithertightenorloosenfinancialconditions,keepingaclosewatchoverthemacroeconomic

environmentrelatedtomonetarypolicywouldbewarranted.Thecentralbankcanoffsettheimpactifnecessary.

CBDCshavethepotentialtostrengthenthechannelsofmonetarypolicytransmission.De-

dollarization/de-cryptoizationislikelytoamplifyalltransmissionchannels.Increasedcompetitionforbankdepositfundingcouldstrengthentheinterestrateandbanklendingchannels.Increasedwholesale

fundingwouldstrengthenthebanklendingchannel.Higherlevelsoffinancialinclusioncanstrengthentheinterestrateandassetpricechannels.Thereareunlikelytobeadditionaleffectsontheexchangerate

channel.

Ingeneral,theeffectsofCBDCsonmonetarypolicytransmissionareexpectedtoberelatively

smallinnormaltimes;however,theseeffectscanbemoresignificantinanenvironmentwithlowinterestratesorfinancialmarketstress.Thestrengtheningoftransmissionchannelsviaincreased

competitionandwholesalefundingreliesonasignificantsubstitutionofbankdepositsforCBDCs,whichmaynotmaterialize.Theimpactoffinancialinclusionisalsouncertainandconstrainedbytherelativelysmallshareinoverallsavingsandlendingofthefinanciallyexcludedpopulation,particularlyinmore

advancedeconomies.Theimpactofde-dollarization/de-cryptoizationmayalsobesmallifCBDCsdonoteffectivelyincreasetheattractivenessoflocalcurrency.Furthermore,mostcentralbanksexploring

CBDCsareconsideringprecautionarydesignfeaturessuchasholdingandtransactionlimitsandtieringofinterestrates.SuchfeatureswilllimitthepotentialflightfromretaildepositsorcashintoCBDCsandarethuslikelytoensurethattheCBDCdoesnothaveasignificantimpactonmonetarypolicy

transmission.However,whenpolicyratesarelowandintimesoffinancialmarketstress,theimpactof

CBDConmonetarytransmissioncouldbemoresignificant.Anon-remuneratedCBDCcouldentrenchthezerolowerboundforinterestrates.Andwhenthereisfinancialmarketstress,thereisgreaterriskofa

flighttosafetyfromretailbankdepositsintoCBDCs.

TheimpactofCBDCsonmonetarypolicytransmissionwilldependonboththedesignfeaturesoftheCBDCandcharacteristicsoftheeconomy.Thisnoteisintendedtogivecentralbanksageneral

frameworktounderstandthelikelyimpactsofCBDCsonmonetarytransmission.Practitionerscanapply

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theprinciplesofthisframeworktothespecificcharacteristicsoftheireconomieswhenconsideringthepotentialimpactofCBDCsonmonetarypolicytransmission.DoingsowillalsoallowthemtoincorporatesuchconsiderationsintothedesignoftheCBDC.

Inthelongrun,CBDCscouldhelpmaintaintheconvertibilitybetweenprivatemoneyandcentral

bankmoneyinjurisdictionswherecashisbecomingincreasinglymarginalized.Thelossofsuch

convertibilityhasuncertainimplicationsforthebasictrustinthemonetarysystem.CBDCscouldthereforepotentiallyserveasa“monetaryanchor”forthemonetarysystem—and,byextension,alsomaintaintheabilityofthecentralbanktoconductmonetarypolicy(Panetta,2021).

Theremainderofthenoteisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIlaysoutaconceptualframeworkto

analyzetheimplicationsofCBDCsonmonetarypolicytransmission.SectionIIIpresentsthebaseline

CBDCdesignconsideredintheanalysis.SectionIVconsiderstheimpactofCBDConacountry’s

macroeconomicenvironment.SectionVconsiderstheCBDC’simpactonfinancialconditions.SectionVIconsiderstheCBDC’simpactonthetransmissionchannelsofmonetarypolicy.SectionVIIdiscusses

monetarypolicyoperations,othermonetarypolicyregimes,renumeratedCBDC,andforeignCBDC.

FINTECHNOTESImplicationsofCBDCsforMonetaryPolicyTransmission

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II.ConceptualFramework

Thissectionpresentsaconceptualframeworkfortheanalysisinthisnote,whichalsoservesasaroadmap(Figure1).Intheframework,theimplicationsofCBDCissuanceonmonetarypolicyare

intermediatedbyitsimpactonkeypartsofthemacroeconomicenvironment.Theframeworkalsomakesadistinctionbetween“leveleffects”—wherebytheintroductionofCBDCscouldtightenorloosenfinancialconditionsasashock—and“transmissioneffects,”wherebyCBDCschangetheimpactofagiven

monetarypolicyshockonoutput,employment,andinflation.

Figure1.ConceptualFramework

Source:Authors.

Dependingonhowitisdesigned,theissuanceofaCBDCcouldaffectacountry’s

macroeconomicenvironment.ACBDCoffersasafestoreofvalueandefficientmeansofpayment,

whichcanincreasecompetitionfordepositfunding,increasebanks’shareofwholesalefunding,and

lowerbankprofits.CBDCalsohasthepotentialtobolsterfinancialinclusiontotheextentthatitcan

addressthebarrierstoinclusionfortheunbanked.ACBDCcouldalsoincreasetheattractivenessoflocalcurrencyandhelpreducedollarization/cryptoization.

Theimpactonthemacroeconomicenvironmentinturnaffectsmonetarypolicy.First,uponCBDC

issuance,therewillbeatighteningorlooseningoffinancialconditionsfromthechangesinthe

macroeconomicenvironment(“leveleffects”).Second,changesinthemacroeconomicenvironmentcanpotentiallystrengthenorweakenthetransmissionchannelsofmonetarypolicy(“transmissioneffects”).Transmissionissaidtobestronger(weaker)ifagivenchangeinthemonetarypolicystancehaslarger(smaller)effectsonmacroeconomicvariablesinaneconomywithCBDCsthaninaneconomywithoutthem,allelsebeingequal.The“leveleffects”applyonlyduringtheCBDC’sintroduction,whereasthe“transmissioneffects”remainevenaftertheCBDChasbeenfullyintegratedintotheeconomy.

FINTECHNOTESImplicationsofCBDCsforMonetaryPolicyTransmission

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III.DesignFeaturesofCBDCs

ThissectionoutlinesthebaselinedesignandfeaturesofCBDCconsideredinthisnote:anon-remuneratedretailCBDCthatisaccessibleonlydomestically.

ThisnotefocusesonCBDCsdesignedforretailuse,orretailCBDCs,whichwouldbeavailabletothegeneralpublic.CentralbanksareconsideringbothretailandwholesaleCBDCs.WholesaleCBDCsrefertodigitalformsofcentralbankreserveswhoseaccessislimitedtobanksandotherfinancial

institutions.RetailCBDCsrefertodigitalformsofcentralbankmoneythatcanbewidelyheldandusedbyindividuals.

CBDCshavethepotentialtoimprovethepaymentsandfinancialsystembyprovidinganewformofdigitalmoneywiththefollowingfeatures(Figure2):

Figure2.FeaturesofCBDCs

Source:Authors.

Note:CBDC=centralbankdigitalcurrency.

.CBDCsofferasafestoreofvalue.Unlikebankdepositsandotherliabilitiesofprivatefinancialinstitutionswhicharesubjecttocreditandliquidityriskandthepossibilityofbankfailures,CBDCwouldnotcarrysuchrisks.Asadirectliabilityofthecentralbank,CBDCswouldbeassafeandrisk-freeasphysicalcash.

2

,

3

.CBDCscouldprovideanattractivemeansofpaymentforuseinperson-to-person,person-to-business,andbusiness-to-businesstransactions.Additionally,asanelectronicmeansof

payment,CBDCswouldbeonparwithfast-paymentsolutionsinovercomingthelimitations

2WhileCBDCsareasafestoreofvalue,aswithcash,thelevelofinflationcoulddecreasetheirpurchasingpower.3CapsonindividualholdingsofCBDCwouldlimititspotentialasasavingsvehicle.

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associatedwithcashuse,suchastheneedtomeetinpersonandtorelyonnetworksof

distributionsuchasATMs,whichmaybeparticularlydifficultinremotelocations.Add-onfeaturessuchasofflinepaymentsandprogrammability,whicharebeingexplored,wouldfurtherenhanceCBDCs’attractivenessforpayments.

.CBDCscouldlowercosts.CBDCscouldbeofferedthroughdigitalwalletsonmobiledevices,reducingthecostsassociatedwithmaintainingphysicalbankaccountsandtransactionfees.

Issuingandmanagingcashisexpensive,

4

withcostsfallingonbanks,firms,andhouseholds.CBDCsmayalsoreducethepriceofcross-border(andpotentiallydomestic)paymentsby

reducingintermediariesinthenormaltransactionchainviacloserconnectionordirectaccesstocentralbanksettlementaccounts.

5

Transactionscouldbesettledbydirectlytransferringclaimsonthecentralbank’sbalancesheet.AlthoughintroducingandmaintainingCBDCswould

probablyentailsubstantialfixedcosts,marginaloperationalcostswouldlikelybelow.

ThedegreeofadoptionofCBDCsandtheireffectontheeconomywillultimatelydependontheirdesign.Centralbanksareweighingtheaforementionedbenefitsagainstthepotentialrisks—inparticular,theriskofbankingdisintermediation.Theyarethereforeconsciouslyexploringdesignsthatwouldensure

thatCBDCadoptionwouldnotcreatepotentiallylargeadverseeffectsontheeconomy.CBDCsspecificallydesignedwiththisinmindwillthereforebethefocusofthisnote.

Mostjurisdictionsareconsideringissuinganon-remuneratedCBDC,whichisthefocusofthis

paper.AllCBDCsthathavebeenlaunchedorpilotedthusfararenon-remunerated,whichisbeneficialinlimitingdepositmigration.ThemonetarypolicyimplicationsofremuneratedCBDCwillbediscussedasanextensioninSectionVII.

CentralbanksareconsideringCBDCdesignsthatcapindividualholdingsatapredefined

maximum.ThemotivationistolimitthemagnitudeofthepotentialflightfromretailbankdepositsintoCBDCs,whichhasimplicationsformonetarypolicy.Effectivelimitsonholdingswouldprecludelarge-scaleadoptionofCBDCsand,forinstance,makedigitalbankrunsintoCBDCsimpossible.

6

ThisnotemainlyconsidersaCBDCthatislegallyaccessibleonlyintheissuingjurisdiction.ThelegalusageofaCBDCcanbeeitherrestrictedtothejurisdictioninwhichitisissuedoropenedtocross-borderpayments.CentralbanksthatarecurrentlyintheprocessoflaunchingorpilotingCBDCshave

largelyfocusedonusageonlyintheissuingjurisdiction,eventhoughfeaturinganinternationaldimensioninthedesignofCBDCcouldalsobeanimportantconsideration.

4Hasan,DeRenzis,andSchmiedel(2013)estimatethecosttobe0.5percentofGDPfortheeuroarea,similartothecostin

Canada(Kosseandothers2017)andUruguay(Alvez,Lluberas,andPonce2018).EvenhighercostshavebeenestimatedinAlbania(1.5percentofGDP)andGuyana(2.6percentofGDP;Banka2018).

5IfaCBDCintroducescompetitioninamonopolisticpaymentsystem,thenoverallcostscouldalsobereduced.

6Topromotefinancialinclusion,somecentralbanksareconsideringso-calledtiereddigitalwallets;walletswithhighercapswouldrequiremoreextensivecustomeridentification(Bindseil2020).

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CBDC

IV.ImpactontheMacroeconomicEnvironment

ThissectionprovidesananalysisoftheimpactofCBDCsonkeypartsofthemacroeconomicenvironmentthatarerelevantformonetarypolicy(Figure3).

Thebaselineanalysisisanchoredinaninflationtargetmonetarypolicyregime.

7

Inaninflation

targetframework,monetaryauthoritiescommittomaintaininginflationatapreannouncedlevelorband.Themainpolicyinstrumentisthepolicyinterestrate,andmonetarypolicydecisionsareprimarilyguidedbythedeviationofforecastedinflationfromitstargetlevel.

8

Figure3.ImpactofCBDCsontheMacroeconomicEnvironment

MacroeconomicEnvironment

Competition

Highercompetitionfordepositfunding

Wholesale

funding

Higherwholesalefundingtoreplacedeposits

Bankprofits

Lowerprofitsfromsqueezedmargins

Financial

inclusion

HigherifCBDCaddressesbarrierstoinclusion

Dollarization/Cryptoization

LowerfromgreateruseoflocalcurrencydenominatedCBDC

Source:Authors.

Note:CBDC=centralbankdigitalcurrency.

.CBDCscouldraisecompetitionforbankdepositfunding.Byvirtueofofferingasafestoreofvalueandanefficientmeansofpayment,depositsmayleavebanksinfavoroftheCBDC,

leadingtoadecreaseindepositfundingavailabletobanks(Bindseil2020;ManciniGriffoliandothers2018).

9

ThemagnitudeofthisimpactdependsontheextenttowhichtheCBDCisan

7SectionVIIalsoconsidersothermonetaryregimes.

8Experiencewiththeinflationtargetframeworkisrelativelyrecentamongtheemergingmarkets,andtheyhavehadvaryingdegreesofsuccess(seeBrandaoMarquesandothers2020).

9Thisnotefocusesonthecaseofmonopolisticcompetitioninthebankingsectorasbankshavesomedegreeofmarketpowerinmostcountries.

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attractivesubstitutefordeposits.

10

,

11

CapsonindividualholdingswillalsolimitswitchingfromdepositstoCBDCs.

.CBDCscouldincreasebanks’shareofwholesalefunding.Totheextentthatthereisan

outflowofdepositstoCBDCs,bankscouldreplacedepositshortfallswithwholesalefunding.

12

.CBDCscouldlowerbankprofits.IfbanksraisedepositinterestratestocompetewithCBDCsoriffundingcostsincreasefromashifttowardwholesalefunding,thenbankprofitswilldecreasetotheextentthathighercostscannotbeentirelypassedthroughtohigherlendingrates.

13

.CBDCscouldbolsterfinancialinclusion.Althoughnotasilverbullet,CBDCspresent

opportunitiesforimprovingfinancialinclusionandexpandingaccesstofinancialservicesfortheunbanked(LannquistandTan2023).CBDCsmayserveasaninitialentrypointtoadigital

financialaccountthatleadstotheopeningofbankaccountsandcreditaccess,especiallywhenbanksdistributeCBDCinatwo-tiersystem(Tan2023b).

14

ThemagnitudeofeffectsdependsontheextenttowhichaCBDCaddressesthebarrierstofinancialinclusioninagivencountry.

.CBDCscouldhelpde-dollarizationorcounter“cryptoization.”Indollarizedoreuroized

economies,theintroductionofaCBDCcouldencourageagreateruseofthelocalcurrencyby

makingitamoreattractivemeansofpayment.Inparticular,withtheriseofotherformsofdigitalmoneydenominatedinforeigncurrency(suchasstablecoins),aCBDCcanhelppreventthelocalcurrencyfrombeingsupplanted.However,aCBDCwouldnotaddressdeeperissuesdriving

currencysubstitutionrelatedtoacountry’smonetarypolicyframeworkandcentralbank

credibility.

TheimpactofCBDCsonbankcompetition,wholesalefunding,andprofitsisconnectedtothe

degreeofbankdisintermediationfromCBDCs.

15

Inastaticpartialequilibriummodel,theintroductionofCBDCsdrawsdepositsawayfrombanks,leadingtoanupwardshiftinthedepositsupplycurve(Figure

10TheattractivenessofCBDCsrelativetothatofdepositswouldlikelydependonthefollowingdesignfeatures:perceivedsafety,easeofaccess,convenience,technologicalinnovation(suchasprogrammability),costofuse,andprivacyandanonymity.

MerchantacceptanceofCBDCsisalsocritical(seeTan2023a).

11Theimpactwillbegreateronbanksthatrelymoreondepositfunding.Asaresult,thiscouldpotentiallyleadtodifferentialeffectsacrossjurisdictionswherebankshavevaryingfundingstructures.

12Thesizeofbanks,thestructureoftheeconomy,andpublicacceptancearefactorsaffectingtheextenttowhichCBDCscouldincreasebanks’shareofwholesalefunding.

13AlthoughCBDCissuancewilllikelydecreasebankprofitsthroughthechannelsdescribedabove,itcouldpotentiallyhavean

offsettingpositiveimpactonprofitabilityinseveralotherrespects(Ahnertandothers2022).Forinstance,CBDCscouldincreaseoperationalefficiencyinthefinancialsystem,particularlyintermsofpaymentprocessingandmoneytransfers.Furthermore,

greaterfinancialinclusionwouldimplythatmoreagentswouldbeintheformalbankingsystem,whichcouldprovidebankswithnewcustomersandnewopportunitiesforlendingandotherservices.Onnet,however,theeffectislikelytobenegative.

14TheaccountandtransactionhistoryinCBDCmaybesenttocreditprovidersorotherfinancialproduct/serviceprovidersinplaceofcollateralormoreformalcredithistoryforindividualsandentitieslackingthem.Inthisway,itservesasanalternativedata

sourceforcreditunderwriting,enablinggreateraccesstocreditorotherproducts/servicesneedingfinancialdataaboutapersonorbusiness.Ouyang(2021)showsthattheuseofAlipayinChinafordigitalpaymentsincreasescreditprovisiontoits

underservedusers.

15IfaCBDConlyreplacesdemandforcash,thentherewillbenoimpactonmonetarypolicyviabankdisintermediation.

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