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ReduceCarbonandCostswiththePowerofAI
January2021
ByCharlotteDegot,SylvainDuranton,MichelFrédeau,andRichHutchinson
Leadinginthenewreaty
climate&sustainability
BostonConsultingGrouppartnerswithleaders
inbusinessandsocietytotackletheirmost
importantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatest
opportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusiness
strategywhenitwasfoundedin1963.Today,
weworkcloselywithclientstoembracea
transformationalapproachaimedatbenefitingall
stakeholders—empoweringorganizationstogrow,
buildsustainablecompetitiveadvantage,and
drivepositivesocietalimpact.
Ourdiverse,globalteamsbringdeepindustryand
functionalexpertiseandarangeofperspectives
thatquestionthestatusquoandsparkchange.
BCGdeliverssolutionsthroughleading-edge
managementconsulting,technologyanddesign,
andcorporateanddigitalventures.Weworkina
uniquelycollaborativemodelacrossthefirmand
throughoutalllevelsoftheclientorganization,
fueledbythegoalofhelpingourclientsthriveand
enablingthemtomaketheworldabetterplace.
Foreword
Forbusinessesandgovernmentstoday,thereisperhapsnoth-ingmoreurgentthanfindingapathtonetzero.Thescienceisclear:inordertoavoidtheharmfuleffectsofclimatechange,greenhousegasemissionsmustbecutinhalfthisdecadeandwemustachievenetzeroby2050.That’sadifficulttask,butalsoahistoricopportunity.Countriesandcompaniesthat
proactivelytakeactiononclimatechangeandembracethe
net-zerotransitionareinthepositiontogainacompetitive
advantageandavoidbeinglockedoutofresources,technolo-gies,andtalentintheshortrunwhileplayingavitalrolein
savingtheplanet.Achievingthiswillrequirecreativity,innova-tion,andcollaboration.
BCGbelievesthatthiswillbeadefiningdecadeforclimateactionandwefeelitisourroletohelporganizationsfind
solutionsthatwillsparkthegreatestchangeandspeedupprogresstowardnetzero.Thefirmistheworldleaderin
workingwithgovernments,industries,sectors,andcompa-niestoimplementscaledtransformationsthatproduceapositiveimpact.Wehavethecapabilitiestosupportorgani-zationsinsectorswhereemissionabatementiseasierto
achieveorwhereemissionsaregreatestandthechallengeismoresubstantial.Withourexperience,foranytypeof
organization,wearewell-positionedtohelpdesignand
implementstrategiesthatbothfacilitatetheclimatetran-sitionandhelpbuildacompetitiveadvantageforclients.
Whilemanyorganizationsaremakingsignificantpledgestoreducetheiremissionsfootprint,decisivemovesto
quicklyreduceitarelesscommon.Thismayrepresenta
missedopportunity,ascrucialsignstodaypointtotherealvalueofanet-zerostrategy.Customers,investors,and
employeesareincreasinglydemandingthatcompanies
theydobusinesswithorworkformakerealprogresson
cuttingtheirnetcarbonemissions.Furthermore,pressurefrompolicymakersismounting.Asaresult,embedding
solutionstothosechallengesintotheheartofacompany’sbusinessmodelcanyieldoutstandinglong-termvalue
creation.Andwhensocialimpactisprofitable,it’sscalable.It’sacyclethatbenefitsusall.
Webelievethatcompaniesandgovernmentsneedtoaskthemselvesfourkeyquestionstodrivetheirnet-zero
strategies:
•Whatdoesmymarket/countrylooklikeinanet-zeroworld?
•Whatismymodelforsucceedinginthatmarket?
•WhatchangesshouldImakenowtoprepareforsuc-cess?
•Whataretheexternalmarketplace,regulator,andenvi-ronmentalconditionsthatIwillfaceinmovingtowardnetzero?
Withinthisdocument,youwillfindarelevantBCGarticlefocusingonthenet-zerotransitionviewedthroughthe
lensoftechnologies,operations,andstrategiesandthe
rolethatBCGcanplayinhelpingcompaniesandgovern-mentsimplementthesenewapproaches.TheParis
Agreementof2015establishedtheprocesstocollectivelyreduceglobalgreenhousegasemissionsintheatmo-
spheretolimitglobalwarmingtowellbelow2degrees
Celsius.TheCOP26conferenceinGlasgowthisNovemberwillprovideawindowintohowwellwearedoinggloballyinachievingthesegoals,makingthisaperfectmoment
foreachorganizationtorevisit(ordesignforthefirst
time)theirownnet-zerostrategies.Itistimetomove
frompledgestoaction.Wehavelessthanadecadelefttohalveouremissions—andembraceamassiveopportuni-tyfortheplanet,forourselves,andforthepeoplewho
dependuponourorganizationstodotherightthing.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP1
T
hepressureonbusinessestorespondtothethreatofglobalwarmingisgrowing.Consumers,regulators,
andinvestorsalikeareincreasinglyscrutinizingtheclimateimpactofcompaniesineveryindustry.InhisJanu-ary2020lettertoCEOs,forexample,LarryFink,chairmanandCEOofBlackRock,theworld’slargestassetmanager,putcompaniesonnoticethatinvestors—amongother
stakeholders—nowexpectfulldisclosureofcompanies’performanceonarangeofenvironmental,social,and
governancefactors.
Butit’sonethingforcompaniestopaylipservicetothe
needtoreducetheirgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.
Takingconcretemeasurestomakeadifference,especiallyintoday’spandemic-driveneconomicclimate,isanother
matterentirely.Thedifficultyandexpenseofmeasuring
thefullextentoftheircarbonemissions,andthenreduc-
ingoroffsettingthem,hasforcedmanycompaniestodelaytheeffort.
Inthiscontext,artificialintelligence(AI)canbeagamechanger.Itsabilitytodeliverdeepinsightsintomultiple
aspectsofacompany’scarbonfootprintandquick
cost-cuttingwinsoffersapromisingroutetoacceleratingsustainabletransformationandreducingexpensesina
timeofneed.Andbecausetheirsizegivesthemaccesstohugedatasets—akeysuccessfactorfordeployingAI—
largecompaniesareinanespeciallystrongpositiontobenefitfromitspower.
ThePromiseofAI
Thethreatofclimatechangeisgrowing,andtimeisrunningout.GlobalGHGemissionscurrentlytotalabout53gigatonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(CO2e),accordingtotheCarbonDisclosureProject.Ifwearetomeetthegoaloflimitingtheincreaseinaverageglobaltemperaturesto1.5°C,asspecifiedinthe2016ParisAgreement,wemustreducethoseemis-
sionsby50%bytheendofthisdecade,accordingtothe
Science-BasedTargetsInitiative.Inourexperiencewithanumberofclients,usingAIcanachieve5%to10%ofthatneededreduction—between2.6and5.3gigatonsofCO2e.
Meanwhile,BCGstudiesshowthatthepotentialoverallimpactofapplyingAItocorporatesustainabilityamountsto$1.3trillionto$2.6trillioninvaluegeneratedthroughadditionalrevenuesandcostsavingsby2030.
Thisadded-valuefigureforcompaniesdoesnottakeinto
accountchangesinthepriceofcarbonoffsets.Thatnum-ber,currentlysetataround$30intheEUEmissionsTrad-ingSystem,coulddoubleby2030.BCGexpectstospend
$80pertonby2030onhigh-quality,permanentGHG
removalaspartofits
NetZeropledge
.Atthisincreased
pricelevel,thevalueofreducingGHGemissionsthrough
theuseofAIwouldrepresentanadditionalsavingsof$208billionto$424billionforallcompaniesglobally.Ifcarbonoffsetpricesriseevenhigheroverthecomingyears,AI
opportunitieswillsurelyrepresentevengreatersavings.
In2030,usingAIforclimate
controlcouldhelpreduce
2.6to5.3
gigatons
ofGHGemissions,or
5%to10%ofthetotal
andcouldprovide
$1trillion
to
$3trillion
invalueaddedwhenappliedto
corporatesustainabilitygenerally
Source:BCGanalysis.
2REDUCECARBONANDCOSTSWITHTHEPOWEROFAI
HowItWorks
ThegreatstrengthofAIliesinitsabilitytolearnbyexperi-ence,collectingmassiveamountsofdatafromitsenviron-ment,intuitingconnectionsthathumansfailtonotice,andrecommendingappropriateactionsonthebasisofits
conclusions.Companieslookingtoreducetheircarbon
footprintshouldturntheAIspotlightonallthreecompo-nentsoftheeffort:
•MonitoringEmissions.CompaniescanuseAI-powereddataengineeringtoautomaticallytrackemissions
throughouttheircarbonfootprint.Theycanarrange
tocollectdatafromoperations,fromactivitiessuchascorporatetravelandITequipment,andfromeverypartofthevaluechain,includingmaterialsandcomponentssuppliers,transporters,andevendownstreamusersoftheirproducts.AIcanexploitdatafromnewsources
suchassatellites.Andbylayeringintelligenceontothedata,AIcangenerateapproximationsofmissingdataandestimatethelevelofcertaintyoftheresults.
•PredictingEmissions.PredictiveAIcanforecastfutureemissionsacrossacompany’scarbonfootprint,in
relationtocurrentreductionefforts,newcarbonreduc-tionmethodologies,andfuturedemand.Asaresult,thecompanycanset,adjust,andachievereductiontargetsmoreaccurately.
•ReducingEmissions.Byprovidingdetailedinsight
intoeveryaspectofthevaluechain,prescriptiveAI
andoptimizationcanimproveefficiencyinproduction,transportation,andelsewhere,therebyreducingcarbonemissionsandcuttingcosts.
Inshort,AIcanhelplargecompaniesreducetheirenviron-mentalimpactwhilealsoalleviatingthefinancialpressuretheyfaceastheyemergefromtheCOVID-19crisis.
Industriesthatcanbenefitfromthisapproachinclude
industrialgoods
(seethesidebar“ASteelmakerCuts
EmissionsandCostswithAI”)
,transportation,pharmaceu-tical,consumerpackagedgoods,energyandutilities
(see
thesidebar“AI-PoweredSustainabilityataLargeOiland
GasCompany”)
,andothers.
ReapingtheBenefits
Togainthesebenefits,companyleadersmustmakeita
topprioritytotargetareaswithhighcarbonemissionsandsignificantcosts—especiallythosewithapotentialpay-
backperiodoflessthan24months.EventhepracticeofAIuseslargeamountsofenergy,andcompaniesshould
subjectitsemissions,too,toanalysis.
(Seethesidebar
“MitigatingAI’sCarbonFootprint.”)
Werecommendthatcompaniesadoptathree-prongedapproach:
•Aimhigh.UseAItoimprovethevisibilityofcarbon
emissionsacrossthevaluechain.Thendeterminewheretoapplythetechnologytoreducethefootprint,startingwiththelargestsourcesofcarbonemissionsandcosts.
•Startsmall.IndesigningyourAIapproach,useproto-typesandpilots,tocreateastrongbasisforfurther
learninganddevelopment.Usetheminimumviable
product(MVP)concepttodesignaworkableAIsystem,andtheniterateonit,integratingfeedbacktomakeitbetter.
•Scalefast.ScaleuptheMVPsolutionandtransform
theorganizationaroundittoincreaseitsimpact.InvestinbuildingcorecapabilitiesandenablersinparallelwithscalinguptheMVP.Theseshouldfocusondeveloping
enablingtechplatformsatscale,definingnewwaysofworking,andimplementingtheorganizationandgover-nancemodelsneededtoalignAIandoverallstrategy.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP3
ASteelmakerCutsEmissionsandCostswithAI
Recently,aglobalsteelproducerwantedtooptimizeits
productionprocessestoreducecarbonemissionsand
lowercosts.Inthecourseofjustsixmonths,weimple-
mentedAI-basedprocesscontrolsdesignedtoeliminate
wasteandreduceenergyintensity.Thousandsofsensorscollectbillionsofdatapoints,whicharethenfedintothecontrolsystem’salgorithms.Thisenablesthecompanytopreciselycalculateandpredictenergyneedsandtrackandreducesourcesofwaste.
Sinceimplementingthesecontrols,thecompanyhas
pursuedasubsetofinitiativesthathavealreadyachievedcarbonemissionsdecreasesof3%,representingapproxi-
mately230,000tonsofCO2peryear,alongwithcostreduc-tionsof$40million—asignificantbenefitforacompany
with$8billioninrevenue.
Asimpressiveasthesegainsare,thecompanyhadalreadymadesignificantprogressinoptimizingitsoperations
beforeadoptingthesechanges.WecalculatethatAIwouldhaveamuchgreaterimpactfortheindustryasawhole,
helpingsteelcompaniesreducetheiremissionsby5%to
10%andtheircostsby1%.Ifeverysteelcompanyachievedsuchreductions,theindustrywouldemit200millionto
400millionfewertonsofCO2eachyear.
4REDUCECARBONANDCOSTSWITHTHEPOWEROFAI
AI-PoweredSustainabilityataLargeOilandGasCompany
AmajorEuropeanoilandgascompanywasfacingproduc-tionlossesduetounexpectedproblemswithmachinery
andtodependenceoncontrolsystemsthatfolloweda
report-and-reactapproach.Tocompensateforthelosses,thecompanyhadtoincreaseproduction,leadingtohigheremissionsandincreasedcosts.
Torectifytheproblem,weredesignedthecontrolsystemtoimplementamachine-learning-basedpredict-and-act
approachandcreatedanintegratedoperatingcenterto
unifytheviewsonallplantequipment.Wealsoencour-
agedthecompanytoadoptachangemanagementstrate-gytofostertheadoptionofthenewtools.
Thenewend-to-endsystemusesanumberofmachine-
learningmodels,includingtoolsthatpredictmaintenanceproblemsandCO2emissionsforeachproductionunit.Thiscapabilityenablesplantengineerstopredicttheenergy
consumptionandemissionsofalloftheirunitsforthenextthreetofivehours—andtoisolate,analyze,andfixanyunitresponsibleforexcessemissions.
Asaresult,thecompanylowereditscarbonemissionsby1%to1.5%,representing3,500to5,500tonsofGHGsperyear,andreduceditscostsbyapproximately$5millionto$10million.Thesystemalsoachieved87%accuracyin
predictingequipmentfailuresandhadan80%successrateinforecastingemissionsanomalies.
ByscalingupthisAI-poweredtoolandusingmachine
learningtoreplicateitacrossmachinesandplants,oilandgascompaniescangainacomprehensive,real-timeviewacrossalloftheirproductionoperations.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP5
MitigatingAI’sCarbonFootprint
AsvaluableatoolasAIcanbeinhelpingcompaniesac-
countforandreducetheircarbonemissions,runningAI
programscontributestotheproblem.In2019,researchersattheUniversityofMassachusettsestimatedthatthe
energyrequiredtotrainastate-of-the-artnatural-languageprocessingalgorithmtoproducehuman-liketextwould
generatemorethan270,000kilogramsofCO2emissions.
Sincethen,thepowerofstate-of-the-arttechnologyhas
becomemuchgreater:OpenAI’slatestversionofitsAI
model,calledGPT-3,ishundredsoftimesmorepowerfulthanlastyear’smodelandproducesthesameamountofGHGemissionsasacarbeingdrivenmorethan700,000kilometers.
Thelesson:exponentialincreasesinAI’salgorithmiccom-plexityandthegrowingadoptionofAIsolutionsthroughouttheeconomyandsocietyrequireAIpractitionerstofind
waystomitigatethetechnology’senvironmentalfootprint.
That’sthegoalof
CodeCarbon
,acombinedeffortofBCGGamma;Mila,aworld-leadingAIresearchinstitutein
MontrealfoundedbyTuringAwardrecipientYoshuaBen-gio;Pennsylvania’sHaverfordCollege;andComet.ml,acollaborationplatformformachinelearning.
CodeCarbonautomaticallycapturestheinformationneed-edtoestimateCO2emissionsduetocomputing,enablinguserstotrack,record,andvisualizetheemissionsreleasedinthecourseofeveryexperimentandacrossmultiple
projects.
Italsoprovidesvisibilityintotheleversthatdeveloperscanpulltoreducetheirfootprint.Thisinturnallowsthemto
designmorefrugalandmoreefficientalgorithms,positiontheirserversinlocationswhereproducingpowergeneratesthelowestlevelofemissions,andchoosethemosteffi-
cienthardwarefortheirsystems.Bypullingtheselevers,
datascientistscanreducetheemissionsreleasedintrain-ingalgorithmsbyuptotentimes.AndbecauseCode-
Carbonisanopen-sourceprogram,userscancontributetoitsfurtherdevelopment.
6REDUCECARBONANDCOSTSWITHTHEPOWEROFAI
ActNow
AIhasalreadydemonstrateditsnear-termvalueinhelping
companiesreducetheirGHGemissionsandcutcosts.By
generatingapositiveROI,oftenwithinayear,itshould
quicklybecomeafinancialbenefittocompanies,rather
thanyetanothercost.WebelievethatAIcanbeespecially
valuablenow,ascompaniesrecoverfromtheCOVID-19
crisis,inloweringcostsandbeginningthetransitiontoa
low-carbonfuture.
Inthelongerterm,asthepriceofcarbonemissionsrises
andasadvancesenableAItotacklemorecomplexclimate
issues,thetechnologywillbecomeincreasinglyimportant
inmitigatingtheeffectsofglobalwarming.
Nowisthetimeforleadingcompaniestobeginreaping
thebenefitsofAI.Aimhigh,startsmall,andscalefast.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP
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