全球假日购物市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

CONSUMERS&BRANDSHoliday

season

shopping

2023Spotlight

reportHoliday

season

shopping

–

what

is

new

this

year?Key

questions

answered

inthisreport123What

istheforecast

for

retail

sales

How

muchare

consumersspendingHow

are

pricesholding

up

thisholiday

season?during

theholidayseason?onChristmas

gifts?•

Inthe

United

States,holidayseason

retailsales

areprojected

toincrease

by5.8

percent.••Most

consumers

inthe

U.S.,UK,andGermany

planto

spend

lessthan100

U.S.

dollarsper

gift.•••Inthe

UKandGermany,

foodinflationwas

stillhigherthan

theoverall

rate.•

Inthe

UK,about34

percentofholiday

salesare

forecast

to

bethroughonline

channels.40

percentofGerman

consumersplanto

giftvouchers

forChristmas.Inthe

U.S.,the

inflation

rate

forturkeys

slowed

down

compared

tolastyear.•

One-thirdof

U.S.shoppers

saidtheywere

goingtoset

strictbudgetsfortheirChristmasgift

spending.•

OveraquarterofU.S.,UK,andGerman

consumers

saidthey

weregoing

to

spendmore

this

year.Theaverage

priceofaChristmasdinner

thatincluded

amediumturkey

was

40

BritishpoundsinUKsupermarkets.2Whatistheforecast

for

theholiday

season?Inflationeases

going

intothe

holidayseason,buttheUKstillgrapples

withhighfoodprices1Monthly

overall

and

food

inflationratecompared

to

theyear

priorintheUnitedStates,the

United

Kingdom,and

Germany

from

December

2021

toNovember

2023UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyYear-over-year

inflation

rate25%20%15%10%5%25%20%15%10%5%25%20%15%10%5%9.23.1%2.9%5.5%3.2%4.2%0%0%0%Dec'21

Apr

'22

Aug

'22

Dec'22

Apr

'23

Aug

'23Dec'21

Apr

'22

Aug

'22

Dec'22

Apr

'23

Aug

'23Dec'21

Apr

'22

Aug

'22

Dec'22

Apr

'23

Aug

'23Overall

inflation

rateFoodinflation

rate3Notes:Year-over-year

percentage

change

in

CPI

comparedtothe

corresponding

month

ofthe

previous

yearSources:

(1)

U.S.

Census

Bureau;U.S.

FoodInflation

Calculator;

(2)

Office

forNational

Statistics;

(3)Statistisches

BundesamtWhatistheforecast

for

theholiday

season?1Abountifulseason

forholidayretail

salesForecast

holidayseason

retail

salesintheUnited

States,theUnited

Kingdom,and

Germany

from

2014

to

2023Afterlastyear’s

Christmasseason

was

riddled

with

inflation-related

anxieties,the2023

retail

season

duringthemonthsof

November

and

December

isprojected

toincrease

inthethree

major

global

economies.

IntheUnited

States,holidayseason

retail

salesare

forecast

to

see

a5.8

percent

growth

in2023,

whereas

intheUnitedKingdom(UK)and

Germany,

salesare

expected

togrow

bythree

percent

and

3.6

percent,

respectively.UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyHoliday

season

retail

sales

inbillion

U.S.dollarsHoliday

season

retail

sales

inbillion

British

poundsHoliday

season

retail

sales

inbillion

euros1,00090010094.53

14091.78907.31857.20807.11757.06710.49660.59610.7489.02123.85119.51115.15110.76105.46101.0886.26908070605040302010082.5879.8012010080604020077.08800700600500400300200100074.2170.9369.2096.6893.1089.4787.02567.60

573.67577+5.8%+3%+3.6%2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20232014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20232014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20234Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;analysis

asofNovember

2023Sources:

(1)U.S.

Census

Bureau;ID:1189993;

(2)

ONS;ID:1189445;

(3)

HDE;Statistisches

Bundesamt;

ID:1189479Whatistheforecast

for

theholiday

season?1Onlinecontinuesto

increase

itsshare

inholidayseasonretail

salesForecast

valueofonline

and

offlineholiday

season

retail

sales

intheUnited

States,theUnited

Kingdom,andGermany

from

2018

to

2023

(billionsintheir

own

currencies)UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyOnlineandofflineholiday

season

retail

sales

inU.S.dollars(inbillions)Onlineandofflineholiday

season

retail

sales

inBritish

pounds(inbillions)Onlineandofflineholiday

season

retail

sales

ineuros(inbillions)32.1720.18263.46920232022202120202019201862.3662.70202320222021202020192018103.67100.9398.22202320222021202020192018643.845617.929592.397567.257549.987524.9534%16%18.5729%29.0826.1123.27239.26827.9%26.6%31.7%15.5%16.92214.7162.9132.7%14.7%15.22189.80225.1%62.9895.5426.98%13.7%20.2924.6%12.7412.1%160.50222.6%62.2992.7117.6822.16%11.0410.9%135.6420.5%62.1290.040%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Value

ofonline

sales0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Value

ofofflinesales

Thickness

implies

totalofsales

per

year5Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;analysis

asofNovember

2023Sources:

(1)U.S.

Census

Bureau;ID:1189995;

(2)

ONS;ID:1189458;

(3)

HDE;Statistisches

Bundesamt;

ID:1189483How

much

areconsumersspending?2This

year,

consumers

are

open

to

spending

more

compared

to

last

ChristmasCompared

tolastyear:

Doyou

planto

spend

more

or

less

onChristmasgifts?UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyCompared

to2022,

when

consumerswere

cautiousaboutinflationandhadtomakechangestotheirshoppinghabits,in2023,

optimism

came

back.Many

consumers,

especially

inGermany,

expressed

awillingness

tospend

asmuchaslastyear

or

evenmore

than

theprevious

year’sChristmasbalance.

Ingeneral,

Europeanshoppers

were

more

open

to

beingextravagant

when

itcame

totheirChristmasexpenses

thantheirU.S.counterparts.Shareofrespondents202320222021202037%38%31%26%23%28%202320222021202049%44%53%20%26%20232022202155%54%25%15%16%36%21%18%46%31%16%25%16%63%24%

9%35%20%38%19%49%20%16%29%20200%65%16%

15%0%40%60%80%

100%0%40%60%80%

100%20%40%60%80%

100%I’mgoing

tospend

just

asmuchaslast

yearI’mgoing

tospend

moreI’mgoing

tospend

less6Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;2023;

single

pick;

results

shown

here

exclude

those

who

responded

with

"Don’tknow“;base:respondents

who

plan

to

giveChristmas

gifts

this

yearGlobal

Consumer

SurveySources:

(1)

(2)

(3)How

much

areconsumersspending?2Budget

restrictions

and

buying

less

are

still

on

the

minds

of

consumersHoliday

attitudesamong

consumers

intheUnitedStates,theUnited

Kingdom,and

Germany

in2023What

strategies

are

youimplementingtomanage

yourholidayexpenses

thisyear?Althoughinflationhascalmed

downsincelastyear’s

Christmastime

(seepage3),consumers

arestillinterested

inmanagingtheirfinanceswhen

itcomestotheirholidayexpenses.

Buying

feweror

less

expensive

giftswere

among

themost

popularstrategies

forU.S.

and

UKconsumers,

while

inGermany,

35percent

of

thosesurveyed

inStatista’sGlobal

Consumer

Survey

saidthey

werenotmaking

anychanges.

Thisratewasslightlylower

inthe

U.S.andthe

UK.Shareofrespondents35%Buyingfewerorlessexpensivegifts33%33%27%26%31%Settingastrict

budget18%FindingaffordablealternativesforcelebrationsCuttingbackonholiday-relatedtravelUsinghomemadedecorationsDownsizingholidaygatheringsOther16%19%15%15%14%8%11%11%10%9%10%Settingastrict

budgetand

finding

moreaffordablealternatives

forfestivecelebrations

were

alsoonthemindsoftheconsumers.3%2%3%27%Iamnotmakinganychanges30%35%35%0%5%U.S.10%UK15%Germany20%25%30%40%7Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;2023;

multi-pickGlobalConsumer

SurveySources:How

much

areconsumersspending?2Per

gift

budgets

remain

modest,

with

U.S.

consumers

spending

the

highest

totalAmountconsumers

plantospendon

each

Christmasgiftfordifferent

recipients

intheUnited

States,United

Kingdom,and

Germany

in2023

(inown

nationalcurrencies)How

muchdoyouplanto

spend

on

Christmas

giftsapproximately?Despite

softening

attitudestoward

thecost

of

livingand

theeasing

ofinflation,consumers

inthe

U.S.,UK,andGermany

donotplanto

splurge

ongifts.Most

consumers

expressed

thattheywould

spendupto100

U.S.dollars

perrecipient,

with

totalgiftbudgetsrunningto1,380

U.S.

dollarsintheUnitedShareofrespondentsEstimatedaverage

Christmasgift

spendingin202330%27.1%1,380

USDintheUnited

States1,120

GBP

intheUnited

Kingdom650euros

inGermany24.9%25%20%15%10%5%22.4%18.7%22.3%21.2%19.9%19.5%States,1,120

British

poundsintheUK,andabout650

euros

inGermany.14.7%11.1%8.9%11.0%9.1%8.5%8.3%7.7%7.6%6.8%5.4%

5.2%5.5%5.4%5.2%3.7%0%No

expensesUpto

25Between25-50Between50-100

Between100-150

Between150-200

Morethan200U.S.

UK

GermanyDon'tknow8Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;2023;

in

national

currencies;approximations

arebasedonresponses

given

foreach

gift

recipient

i.e.forself,

child,

partner,and

parents;budget

values

are

calculated

based

onotherholiday

season-related

questions

fromtheGlobalConsumer

SurveyGlobal

Consumer

SurveySources:How

much

areconsumersspending?2Vouchers

and

cash

are

gaining

popularity

as

the

go-to

Christmas

giftsLeading

10

itemsconsumers

intheU.S.,UK,andGermany

will

probablygiftforChristmasin2023UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyCosmetics,perfume,bodycareClothing,textiles,shoes36%36%39%37%34%Vouchers/giftcards40%Cosmetics,perfume,bodycareVouchers/giftcardsMoney(cashortransfer)Clothing,textiles,shoesMoney(cashortransfer)Vouchers/giftcards29%26%32%27%23%21%18%16%15%12%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%Money(cashortransfer)Clothing,textiles,shoesBoardgames,toys,dolls,etc.Books,eBooksBoardgames,toys,dolls,etc.34%33%23%22%Cosmetics,perfume,bodycareFood,drinksFood,drinksJewelryandwatchesBooks,eBooksBoardgames,toys,dolls,etc.JewelryandwatchesBooks,eBooks25%21%20%18%17%14%EventticketsJewelryandwatchesDecorationarticlesFood,drinksSmartphones,tablets,andaccessoriesSmartphones,tablets,andaccessories13%12%13%13%ConsumerelectronicsEventtickets0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%9Notes:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;2023;

multiple

pick;

base:

respondents

who

plan

togive

Christmas

gifts

this

year;only

the

top10

responses

areshown

hereGlobal

Consumer

SurveySources:

(1)

(2)

(3)How

much

areconsumersspending?2Whoare

consumers

givingChristmas

gifts

to?Recipients

ofChristmasgiftsplannedbyconsumers

intheU.S.,UK,and

Germany

in2023ChildrenPartnerParentsSiblings51%55%48%47%55%52%38%44%42%31%33%28%FriendsMyselfGrandchildrenOtherrelatives30%29%26%25%18%19%15%16%15%17%16%10%10

Notes:Sources:United

States,

United

Kingdom,

Germany;2023;

multiple

pick;

base:

respondents

who

plan

togive

Christmas

gifts

this

year;only

selected

responses

areshown

hereGlobalConsumer

SurveyHow

arepricesholding

up?3Holiday

dinner

staples

projected

to

get

cheaperin

the

U.S.Price

changeof

selected

ThanksgivingdinneritemsintheUnitedStatesasof

October

2023Turkeypriceshave

come

down

from

lastyear’speakAnnualpercentage

price

change

ofturkeys

intheUnited

Statesfrom2000

to202312-month

price

change

ofThanksgiving

dinnerstaplesAsone

ofthefestiveseason's

highlights,the

Thanksgivingdinneris

a20%useful

barometer

of

the

stateof

foodprice

inflationintheUnited

States.In2023,

the

costof

Thanksgivingdinnerstaplesgot

cheaper,

with

pricesforturkeysgrowing

ataslower

ratethanin2022,

decreasing

from

16.9

percent

to7.2

percent

in2023.

Theprice

ofpotatoes,

on

the

other

hand,

even

gotcheaper,

shrinking

by3.3percent

sincelastyear.16.9%TurkeyPotatoes7.2%15%11.3%10%-3.3%7.5%5.7%2.7%7.3%7.2%5.5%3.6%3.9%3.4%1.7%0.0%4.4%4.3%1.9%5%0%3.6%

3.5%3.5%1.7%

1.9%1.7%auces

&graviesFresh

biscuitsFrozen

pies-0.2%-1.4%-3.1%-4.9%-2.7%-5%-10%11

Notes:United

States;

2000

to2023Sources:

(1)

(2)

BureauofLaborStatistics;

ID:1426704How

arepricesholding

up?3German

Christmas

food

got

more

expensiveYear-over-year

percentage

pricechangeof

selected

Christmasdinnerfood

items

inGermany

as

ofOctober

2023Food

inflationinGermany

isstillatahigherlevel

compared

to

overallinflation,andthis

hasshown

itsimpacton

the

maindinneritems

ofatypicalGerman

Christmastable.While

prices

offresh

poultry

suchasgoose,

turkey,

andchicken

only

marginally

declined,cookies,

potatoes,

dairy,and

breadprices

sawasubstantialincreasecompared

to

thesameperiod

of

theprevious

year,

according

tothe

latestmonthly

inflationdata.Fresh

poultry:-1.3%Potatodumplings:+24.1%Cabbage:-1.6%Pickles:

+12%Potatoes:

+9.9%WhiteBread:

+9.5%Sausage:

+7.8%Beef:

+4%Cheese:

+10.8%Cookies:

+34%12

Notes:

Germany;October

2023Sources:

Statistisches

BundesamtHow

arepricesholding

up?3Average

price

of

Christmas

dinner

components

in

the

UKAverage

price

ofChristmasdinnercomponents

inthe

United

Kingdom

as

of2023Inthe

United

Kingdom,the

price

ofanaverage

Christmasdinnerthatincludedasmall

turkey,gravy

sauce,roastpotatoes,

pigsinblankets,and

brusselssproutsaddedupto

27.35

Britishpoundsbased

ontheprices

fromfourleading

UKsupermarkets.

Thisprice

was40

British

poundsforthesamedinnerbut

with

amedium-sized

turkey

asofOctober

2023.Whole

turkey–small:Whole

turkey–medium:Whole

turkey–large:Gravy:£16.25£28.90£35.65£3.20Pigsinblankets:Brussels

sprouts:Yorkshire

pudding:Cranberry

sauce:Red

cabbage:£3.10£1.60£2.40£1.55£1.85£3.20Christmaspudding:Custard:£3.70£2.10£2.25Applecrumble:Gammon

joint:£10.30Potatoes:13

Notes:United

Kingdom;

October

2023;

figures

arebased

onthe

prices

obtained

fromonline

storesofAldi,

Morrisons,

Sainsbury’s,

and

TescoSources:

Aldi;

Morrisons;

Sainsbury’s;

TescoOutlook123What

istheforecast

for

retail

salesduring

theholidayseason?How

muchare

consumersspendingonChristmas

gifts?How

are

pricesholding

up

thisholiday

season?Both

totalandfood

inflationareeasing

Consumers

aregoing

backto

theirpre-

Food

inflationcontinuesto

drop,going

into

theChristmasseason.

TheUnited

Stateswill

see

fastergrowth

inretail

sales

duringthe

holiday

seasonthan

theUKand

Germany.

Onlinechannels

will

increase

theirshareofthe

total

holidayretail

sales.inflationshoppinghabitsthisholidayseason.

Cashand

vouchers

aregainingpopularity

asthe

go-to

Christmasgifts.impactingthepriceof

holidayseasonfood

items.

Prices

forsome

food

items,suchaspotatoes

andbread,continuetoriseatahigherrateinGermany.14MethodologyMethodology

usedintheforecasting

ofholiday

retailsalesTotal

retail

sales(excluding

fuel,motor

vehiclesandparts,food

service,pharmacy)

ande-commerce

salessestimation

of

thetotalholidayretail

(online

and

offline)

andonlineretail

sales

iscalculated

usingMeta‘sProphet

time

series

forecasting

modelusingthemonthly

historical

data

takenfrom

thenationalstatisticaloffices

ofrespective

countries.

Theholiday

seasonisdefined

as

the8-week

period

betweenNovember

andDecember.

Trainingdatawent

asfarbackasJanuary

1992

fortheU.S.,January1986

fortheUK,and1994forGermany.National

statisticaloffices

oftheUnitedStates(U.S.CensusBureau),theUnited

Kingdom

(OfficeforNational

Statistics),and

Germany

(StatistischesBundesamt),

aswell

as

the

Handelsverband

Deutschlande.V.

(HDE).DatabaseForecasting

salesforthe8-week

periodbetween

NovemberandDecemberMeta’s

Prophet

time

seriesforecasting

model*Based

onthemonthly

historicaldata

uptoOctober

2023InfluencefactorsMeta‘s

Prophet

algorithm

takesintoaccount

non-linear

trendsand

annual,monthly,weekly,

and

dailyseasonalityindata.Projected

valueofholidayseason

total

retail

andonline