公共事业管理专业经济周期理论博弈论大学毕业论文外文文献翻译及原文

1、毕毕 业业 设设 计（论文）计（论文） 外外 文文 文文 献献 翻翻 译译 文献、资料中文题目：文献、资料中文题目：1.1. 经济周期理论经济周期理论 2.2.博弈论博弈论 文献、资料英文题目：文献、资料英文题目： 文献、资料来源：文献、资料来源： 文献、资料发表（出版）日期：文献、资料发表（出版）日期： 院院 （部）（部） ： 专专业：业：公共事业管理公共事业管理 班班级：级： 姓姓名：名： 学学号：号： 指导教师：指导教师： 翻译日期：翻译日期： 2017.02.14 2017.02.14 毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译 院（系）：院（系）：管理学院管理学院 专专业：业：公共事业管理公共事业

2、管理 外文出处：外文出处：Journal of Evolutionary Econom- (用外文写) -ics,2004,Vol.14(2) Bookreview:Gametheoryand interdependence. Game Theory and its Applications in the Social and BiologicalSciences,AndrewM. Colman,Oxford:Butterworth Heinemann, 1995. 375 pp, ISBN 0 750623691. 附附件：件： 1. 1.外文资料翻译译文；外文资料翻译译文；2.2.外文原文

3、外文原文 1.Business cycle the definition of the economic cycle, economic cycle: also called the business cycle, business cycles, economic cycle, it is to point to in the operation of the economic cyclical economic expansion and contraction of alternate cycles of a phenomenon. Is the national total outpu

4、t, total revenue and total employment fluctuations. Under the condition of market economy, entrepreneurs are increasingly concerned about the economy, namely economic climate change. The stand or fall of an enterprise production and business operation conditions, is influenced by its internal condit

5、ions,andbytheexternalmacroeconomicenvironmentandmarket environment. , an enterprise is unable to determine its external environment, but can through the internal conditions to improve, to actively adapt to the change of the external environment, make full use of external environment, and within a ce

6、rtain range, change their own environment, in order to enhance their vitality, expand market share. As entrepreneurs, therefore, the economic cycle fluctuations must understand and grasp, and to formulate the corresponding countermeasure to adapt to the cycle fluctuations, or loss of life in waves.

7、schumpeter and based on innovation theory, in the economic cycle and relevant books and periodicals, presented his theory of economic cycle. By diffusion, a kind of innovation, he argues, to stimulate large-scale investment,caused the upsurge, once investment opportunities disappear, then into a rec

8、ession. Because the introduction of innovation is not continuous steady, but the high low, thus produce the economic cycle. Innovation in the history of the differ in thousands ways, its influence on the development of the economy are different sizes, so cycle has long have short. His combination of

9、 the previous argument, put forward in the process of historical development of capitalism at the same time there are three cycles of claims: (1) 50 60 years long cycle or long wave of economy, also known as the Conrad JiYe cycle; (2) as an average of 9 10 years of capitalist economic cycle, also kn

10、own as the jug pull cycle; (3) an average of 40 months of so-called short cycle or short wave, also known as qin period. He declared that the several cycles to coexist and intertwined with each other further proves the correctness of his innovation theory. Schumpeter also in capitalism, socialism an

11、d democracy, a book attacked, labor value theory of Marxs historical materialism and surplus value theory. He put forward a capitalism will automatic transition to the socialist argument. He asserted: once the economy progress makes all of non-life and automated, without human action, innovation its

12、elf down to a routine things, weak function, then entrepreneurs for innovation,investmentopportunitiesaredisappearingandbecomeuseless, capitalism willnot survive, and willautomatically enter the socialism. Schumpeter called socialism, however, and as a symbol of socialist public and public, in fact

13、is still the nationalization of the bourgeoisie and state that no change or touches the capitalist ownership. Current have been harsher about schumpeters theory of the influence of the western academia have greater extension, especially due to the progress of science and technology, schumpeters inno

14、vation theory by western scholars more attention. 1 1、 经济周期理论经济周期理论 经济周期的定义经济周期(Business cycle)：也称商业周期、商业循环、 景气循环， 它是指经济运行中周期性出现的经济扩张与经济紧缩交替更迭、循 环往复的一种现象。是国民总产出、总收入和总就业的波动。 在市场经济条件下，企业家们越来越多地关心经济形势，也就是“经济大 气候”的变化。一个企业生产经营状况的好坏，既受其内部条件的影响，又受其 外部宏观经济环境和市场环境的影响。一个企业，无力决定它的外部环境， 但可 以通过内部条件的改善，来积极适应外部环境的

15、变化，充分利用外部环境， 并在 一定范围内，改变自己的小环境，以增强自身活力，扩大市场占有率。因此，作 为企业家对经济周期波动必须了解、把握，并能制订相应的对策来适应周期的波 动，否则将在波动中丧失生机。 熊彼特又以“创新理论”为依据，在经济周期及有关书刊中，提出了他 的经济周期理论。 他认为， 一种创新通过扩散， 刺激大规模的投资， 引起了高涨， 一旦投资机会消失，便转入了衰退。 由于创新的引进不是连续平稳的，而是时高 时低的，这样就产生了经济周期。历史上的创新千差万别，对经济发展的影响也 大小不同，因而周期有长有短。 他综合了前人的论点，提出在资本主义历史发展 过程中同时存在着三种周期的主

16、张：历时 5060 年的经济长周期或长波，又 称“康德拉季耶夫周期” 通常所说的平均 910 年的资本主义经济周期，又称 “朱格拉周期” ；平均 40 个月的所谓短周期或短波，又称“基钦周期” 。他宣 称，这几种周期并存而且互相交织的情况进一步证明了他的“创新理论” 的正确 性。 熊彼特还在资本主义、社会主义和民主主义一书中攻击了马克思的历史 唯物主义、劳动价值论和剩余价值论。 他提出了资本主义将自动过渡到“社会主 义”的论点。他断言：一旦经济进步使一切都非人身化和自动化了，无需人的作 用了，创新本身降为例行事物了， 那时企业家就因创新职能日弱、投资机会日渐 消失而变得无用， “资本主义就将活

17、不下去” ，并将自动地进入“社会主义” 。然 而熊彼特所谓的“社会主义” ，以及作为社会主义标志的“公有”和“公营” ，实 际上仍然是资产阶级的国有化和国营，根本没有改变或触动资本主义所有制。 当前熊彼特学说在西方学术界的影响有更大的扩展，特别是由于科学技术的 进步，熊彼特的“创新理论”受到西方更多学者的重视。 2.Game theory Game theory is two people with each other in equal match-up strategy transform their confrontation strategy, achieve the goal of

18、victory. Ancient existing game theory thought, sun tzus the art of ancient China is not just a military work, and is the earliest writing on game theory. Game theory original research outcome of chess, bridge, gambling problems, grasp of game situation only on experience, there is no theoretical dev

19、elopment. (1)Policy makers: in the game first to make a decision of the party, this party is often based on their own feelings, experience, and surface state priority one directional action. (2) antagonist: action lags in the games, two games of the people, and policymakers should basic negative dec

20、ision, and his action is lagging, the default, passive, but in the end. His weaknesses may depend on the decision strategy choice, take up the space features, so confrontation is the only way of dominant, actually is the periodic end of the leader behavior. (3) bureau middleman (players) : in a comp

21、etition or game, each have the decision-making power of the participants to be a player. There are only two players of game is called two people game, and more than two players of game called multiplayer game. (4) strategies (strategies) : a game in the game, each player has a selection of practical

22、 complete action plan, the plan is not a stage of action, but to guide the whole a plan of action, a player a viable from beginning to end global planning is a plan of action, called a device to this player. If there are limited in a game in the middle game strategy, it is called a limited game, oth

23、erwise known as the game. (5) and (payoffs) : a game when the game ends as the result of the gain and loss. Each player in the game at the end of the game of the gain and loss, not only related to the agency in its chosen strategy, and with the global human take a set of strategies. So, a game at th

24、e end of the game each player and all the players are a set of fixed strategy function, often referred to as payment (payoff) functions. (6) order (orders) : each game party decisions have successively, and a game party will be decision option more than once, and in order; Other elements of the same

25、 order, the game is different. (7) game comes to equilibrium, equilibrium is the balance point, in economics, the equilibrium meaning related to the amount in a stable value. In supply and demand, market if a commodity at a certain price, want to buy this goods this price can buy per person, per per

26、son and want to sell to sell, at this point we can say, the goods has reached the equilibrium of supply and demand. So-called Nash equilibrium, it is a stable game result. Nash Equilibrium (Nash Equilibrium) : in a strategy combination, all of the participants faced such a situation, when others don

27、t change strategy, his strategy is the best. That is to say, if he change the strategy at this time his income would be reduced. On the Nash equilibrium, each rational participants will not have the urge to change tactics alone. Nash equilibrium existence proof is the premise of the concept of accid

28、entally game equilibrium. Even so-called equilibrium is in A zero-sum game, the authorities in to take its optimal strategy. A A *, player B * B also take their optimal strategy, if the player still take B * B, while player A take A another strategy, then the player As income does not exceed A * him

29、 to take the original strategy benefits. This game in the same is true of B. Accidentally in this way, equilibrium defined as: a pair of strategies a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong tothe policy set b) accidentally called equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to

30、the policy set a) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: (a, b *) even the acuities were to (a *, b *) or greater to (a *, b). To non-zero-sum also has the following definition: a strategy for a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called non-

31、zero-sum equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: the game in a pair (a, b *) accidentally or less for (a *, b *); Game in B to acuities were to (a *, B) (a *, B *). With the above definition, immediately get Nash theorem: Any

32、 two people with limited pure strategy game with at least one equilibrium. This equilibrium is called a Nash equilibrium. Nash theorem proved strictly use the fixed point theory, fixed point theory is the main economic equilibrium research tools. In popular culture, for the existence of equilibrium

33、is equivalent to find the fixed point game. Nash equilibrium concept provides a very important means of analysis, can make the game theory research in the structure of a game looking for more meaningful results. But Nash equilibrium definition is only limited to any players dont want to unilaterally

34、 change strategy, while ignoring the possibility of other players change strategy, therefore, in many cases, the conclusion is unconvincing, Nash equilibrium, the researchers vividly called cute Nash equilibrium. Theoden (r. Selten) in multiple equilibrium of some unreasonable equilibrium according

35、to certain rules, and formed two balanced refining concepts: sub game equilibrium and trembling hands perfect equilibrium completely. The classification of the game according to the classification of different benchmarks also have different. It is generally believed that game mainly can be divided i

36、nto cooperative game and non-cooperative game. Cooperative game and non-cooperative game of difference between interact each other have a binding agreement between the parties, if any, is a cooperative game, if not, it is a cooperative game. From time series of the behavior, game theory is further d

37、ivided into two categories, static game and dynamic game, static game is to point to in the game, participants in the selection or at the same time, though not at the same time choose after the actors didnt know what specific actors to take the first action; Dynamic game is to point to in the game,

38、participates in a persons actions have order, and actors can be observed after the first actors chosen action. Popular understanding: prisoners dilemma is the decision making at the same time, belongs to static game; And decisions or actions such as board games has order, belongs to the dynamic game

39、 According to the understanding of the players on the other player is divided into complete information game and incomplete information game. Complete game is to point to in the process of game, every players on the other players characteristics, the strategy space and yield function with accurate i

40、nformation. Incomplete information game is to point to if the players on the other players characteristics, the strategy space and the revenue function information not accurate enough, or not to all participants in the characteristics, the strategy space and profit function has accurate information,

41、 in this case the game is the incomplete information game. Now economists are now talking about game theory generally refers to the non-cooperative game, due to the complexity of cooperative game theory than the non-cooperative game theory, the theory of maturity than a non-cooperative game theory.

42、Non cooperative game is divided into: complete information static game and dynamic game with complete information and incomplete information static game of incomplete information dynamic game. And corresponding to the four kinds of game equilibrium concept is: Nash equilibrium (Nash equilibrium), su

43、b-game refining Nash equilibrium (subgame perfect Nash equilibrium) and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (Bayesian Nash equilibrium), refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium (perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium). Game theory still has a lot of classification, such as: the game for the number of times or continuous

44、 length can be divided into finite game and an infinite game; To form can also be divided into general type (strategic) or open type; Based on the logic of game and different can be divided into traditional game and evolutionary game theory. 2 2、博弈论、博弈论 博弈论是二人在平等的对局中各自利用对方的策略变换自己的对抗策略， 达到取胜的目的。博弈论思想

45、古已有之，中国古代的孙子兵法就不仅是一部 军事著作，而且算是最早的一部博弈论著作。博弈论最初主要研究象棋、桥牌、 赌博中的胜负问题， 人们对博弈局势的把握只停留在经验上， 没有向理论化发展。 （1)决策人： 在博弈中率先作出决策的一方，这一方往往依据自身的感受、 经验和表面状态优先采取一种有方向性的行动。 (2)对抗者：在博弈二人对局中行动滞后的那个人，与决策人要作出基本反 面的决定，并且他的动作是滞后的、默认的、被动的，但最终占优。他的策略可 能依赖于决策人劣势的策略选择，占去空间特性，因此对抗是唯一占优的方式， 实为领导人的阶段性终结行为。 (3)局中人（players） ：在一场竞赛或博

46、弈中，每一个有决策权的参与者成 为一个局中人。只有两个局中人的博弈现象称为“两人博弈” ，而多于两个局中 人的博弈称为 “多人博弈” 。 (4）策略（strategies） ：一局博弈中，每个局中人都有选择实际可行的完整 的行动方案，即方案不是某阶段的行动方案， 而是指导整个行动的一个方案，一 个局中人的一个可行的自始至终全局筹划的一个行动方案， 称为这个局中人的一 个策略。如果在一个博弈中局中人都总共有有限个策略，则称为“有限博弈” ， 否则称为“无限博弈” 。 (5）得失（ payoffs） ：一局博弈结局时的结果称为得失。每个局中人在一局 博弈结束时的得失，不仅与该局中人自身所选择的策略有关，而且与全局中人所 取