avd20151214avd_12_11_20151

1、The Business Daily of the Global Scheduled Airline Industry Since 1939/aviationdailyInside December 11, 2015AIRLINESA4A Expects Boost In HolidayAIRLINESAirline 2015 ProfitForecast Rises AgainGENEVAIATAhasboostedits2015collectivenetprofitforecastfortheworlds airlines to $33 billi

2、on, with a 4.6% margin, up from a net profit of $29.3 billion and a 4% average net margin projected by the organization in June.For2016,theassociationexpectstheairlineindustrytogenerateanaveragenetprofitmargin of 5.1%, with total net profits of $36.3 billion.But IATADirector General TonyTylerwas qui

3、ck to warn that this yearsexpectedrecord profitability for the airline industry still only reflects airlines achieving a normal level of profit- ability, and is betterdescribed as “fragile,” ratherthan“sustainable.”“Theairlineindustryhasstrengtheneditsprobabilitytoanordinarylevel,notanextraordinaryP

4、ROFIT, p. 2PassengersPAGE 2Virgin America Plans To Take NewAircraft From 2017-19PAGE 3Avianca Brasil StopsGrowth Next YearPAGE 3INFLIGHT ENTERTAINMENTGOL Details Wi-FiInstallation Time LinePAGE 3CARGOSFExpress To IntensifySlot Usage With 767sPAGE 4AIRLINESExecutive Uncertainty Does Not WorryUnitedCH

5、ICAGOCiting significant improvements in operational performance, United Airlines acting CEO said the company is successfully navigating the last few months rapid chief executive turnover.“Were not a company standing still. Were not paralyzed,” acting CEO Brett Hartwho became the third person to occu

6、py the airlines top job in less than two months when he assumed his current duties in Octobertold Aviation Daily sister publication ATW here at the Star Alliance chief executive board meeting here.Unitedalso saw CFO John Raineyleavein Augusttobecome CFO of PayPal.UNITED, p.2TECHNOLOGYAmazon Takes Hy

7、brid ApproachTo Package UAVsPAGE 5SAFETYHigh-DensityATR 72-600Gets EASA CertificationPAGE 5INDUSTRY DATAHawaiian Airlines Fuel Cost2014 vs 2015PAGE 6Fuel WatchGlobal Jet Fuel Prices (midpoint)*As of December 9, 2015, compared with previous week and previous yearcts/galPrevious WeekPrevious YearNY Je

8、t Barges124.91-4.05-82.64Chicago Jet118.41-21.55-107.39West Coast (LA) Jet123.41-11.55-74.14Europe: Rotterdam Jet (Barges)116.11-8.22-83.36Asia/Pacific (Singapore Kero)117.40-11.21-80.14Source: Platts (Subsequent use of these data in index-format or in derived financial instruments requires a licens

9、ing agreement with Platts. For related questions contact Gerald_B)DECEMBER 11, 2015PROFIT, from p. 1level. The industrys results are good, but they are not outstanding when compared to the profits that are generated in other parts of the global economyindustry,”Tylertoldreportersat t

10、heIATAglobalmediadayhere Dec. 10. He sided with the description of an IATA board of governors member on the state of the industry: “less poor than we were before.”Moreover, Tyler noted the improvement is not widespread, and North Americanairlinesdominatethe risein netprofits.“Largepartsof theindustr

11、yarestillstrugglingincludingsomemakinglosses,”hesaid. North American airlines are expected to generate considerably more than one-half of theglobalindustrys 2015 netprofit, earning$19.4 bil- lionwhilemaking$22.48perpassenger(upfrom$18.12perpassengerin the Juneoutlook), according to IATA. Net margins

12、houldaverage 9.5%. Also Europes airlines are expected to post higher profits than fore- cast six months ago. IATA now expects them to earn $6.9billion this year (up from an aggregate $5.8 billion) and $7.55 per passenger. This equatesto a 3.5% netmarginstillbelowtheglobalaverage.Profitsare forecast

13、to further increase to $8.5 billion nextyear, according to IATA, citinga faster-than-expectedrecoveryof the Europeaneconomy,strong performance on business travel on North Atlantic routes and airlinesstarting to reap more benefits from lower oil prices.In contrast to U.S. carriers, which are largely

14、unhedged, hedging rates are typically 80-90% for the majority of large airlines in Europe. Asia-Pacific airlines are anticipated to earn $5.8 billion and $4.89 per passenger this year, up from $4.24 per passenger and a net profitof $5.1 billion in the June outlook.In contrast, Middle Eastcarriersare

15、expectedto seecollectiveprofits of $1.4 billion in 2015, which is lower than thepreviouslyforecast$1.8 billion. The region is split betweenstrong Gulf carriers, withsuccessful long-haul super-connector operations, and regionally focused airlines that are suffering from the effects of lower oil reven

16、ues and political conflict. The Middle East, however, is expected to recover most of the lost ground with a $1.7 billion net profit in 2016, noted IATA chief economist Brian Pearce.Airlines in Latin America and Africa are expected to be in the red in 2015, witha collectivenet loss of $300 million in

17、 each region, or a $1.05 and $3.84 loss per passenger, respectively. The performance of Latin Americancarriers is weak on the back of the deepening economiccrisis in Brazil, weak commodity prices and adverse currency fluctuations. The region, however, is expected to recover to a $400 million profit

18、in 2016. In contrast, airlines in Africa are expected to be loss-makingby$100 millionin 2016. Politicalinstabilityis affectingimportanttourism markets in North Africa. In general, the continents carriers suffer from weak economies and stiff competition on international markets. Growth is alsoweak, w

19、itha 0.4% capacityexpansionexpectedfor 2015, increas- ing to 1.6% in 2016.Pearceplayeddown the significance of lowerfuelprices in the indus- trysexpectedstrongperformancein2015,notingthata more-efficientuse of assets (with increased load factors) and an improvement by airlines in the productivity of

20、 their capitalareotherimportantdrivers of profitability and returns. Capital productivity has increased, he said, by extending the lifeof aircraftandbysellingvalue-addedancillaryservicestopassengers.Cathy Buyck, cathy.buyckaviationweek.co.ukUNITED, from p. 1Hart said Oscar Munoz, who suffered a hear

21、t attack in October and went on medical leave just seven weeks after being named to replace Jeff Smisek as Uniteds CEO, remains on track to return to the CEOs job in the first quarter of 2016. “Oscar is a very important ingredient to this companys overall success,” Hart said, explaining that Munoz “

22、was with us for long enough to give us his perspective,” which was that United needed a renewed focus on customer service and employee relations.Hart said United had “three of the best operational performance months in the history of the company” from September-November. “Wecertainly didnt go into t

23、his year expecting to deal with that level of uncertainty” in the executive suite, Hart conceded, but added, “Youdbe hard-pressed to find where we have come up short. I dont think you see evidence of disarray.”In Munozs absence, Hart said United is moving forward on all initiatives exceptone: fillin

24、g the CFOposition, whichlongtime United executive Gerald Laderman is currently holding on an acting basis. Hart said the CFO search is on hold until Munoz returns. “The CFO ought to be selected by the sitting CEO,” he explained, adding that the role is expected to be filled on a permanent basis “not

25、 too long after Oscar returns.”Hart said there is “a great deal of clarity” among Uniteds execu- tives on what to do until Munoz returns, but didnt rule out changes in roles after Munoz resumes his duties.The current setup “will work until Oscar gets back,” he said. “What Oscar deserves at that poin

26、t in time is to determine what the organization should look like.”Hart said he expects to return to being Uniteds general counsel when Munoz gets back, but added, “I serve at the pleasure of the CEO.”Aaron Karp, Aaron.KAIRLINESA4A Expects Boost In Holiday PassengersAirlines for America

27、(A4A) expects U.S. airline passen- ger numbersduring this yearspeakholiday season to increase more than 3% year-over-year.It projectsthat 38.1 millionpassengers will flyonall U.S.airlines between Dec. 18 and Jan. 3, compared with about 36.9 million passengers during the same period in 2015.A4A estim

28、ates that U.S. airlines will carry from 1.9-2.4 million passengers each day during the forecast, with 80-90% load factors. On each of the busiest daysexpected to be Dec. 18, Dec. 27 and Jan. 3airlines could carry upward of 10% more passengers than on an average day this year.Kristin Majcher, kristin

29、. 2 DECEMBER 11, 2015AIRLINESVirgin America Plans To Take New Aircraft From 2017-19that competition does not hurt the airline. Some of Virgin Ameri- cas best-performing markets, he said, come on routes where it has four or five competitors. “In fact, we do better than when the

30、re is only one or two in a market and where that airline monopolizes that market,” he said.Brian Sumers, Virgin America is confident it will add roughly five or six Airbus A320-family aircraft per year in 2017, 2018 and 2019, even though the carrier has not finalized how

31、it will source them, CFO Peter Hunt said earlier this month. The airline had long hinted it wanted to add capacity in those years, though it has not been forthcoming with details. At a recent Credit Suisse Industrials Conference, Hunt said Virgin America is nearly certain it will find aircraft neede

32、d for 10% annual growthduring the period.For now, Virgin America is taking five aircraft from Airbus this year, five next year, and another 30 from 2020-22. But it has none slated to arrive from 2017-19, a result of a 2012 decision to defer aircraft while the airline sought a path to profit.“It look

33、s like there are plenty of aircraft available,” Hunt said. “The environment is really good. The leasing community has signed up for a very large number of NEO aircraft.”They will almost certainly come from lessors, and they will probably be NEOs, Hunt said. “Sometime soon, we will make some decision

34、s around what we want the fleet to look like,” Hunt said, adding that the airline is speaking with “a number of lessors.” Virgin America has mostly decided how it will use the 10 new aircraft arriving in 2015 and 2016. Some will be used for new service between San Francisco and Honolulu and Maui in

35、Hawaii,as well as between San Francisco and Denver.Many others will be used to restore frequency on routes Virgin America pulled capacity from so it could add service at Dallas Love Field. This includes transcontinental routes to the Northeast U.S., West Coast-Florida routes, and some service along

36、the West Coast, including to Portland, Oregon.“We view that as low risk growth next year because these are places we havealreadyflown to,” Hunt said. “These arefrequencies we already had in the market that we know have been successful.” At year-end, Virgin America will have 58 aircraft. The current

37、fleet plan, without the extra orders, shows Virgin America having 79 A320-family aircraft by 2022. That number could be higher, but the plan shows that leases will expire on 14 current aircraft by that year. Virgin Americas first aircraft comes off lease in 2019,the fleet plan shows.Although Virgin

38、America has exploredother markets, especially Dallas Love Field, Hunt said the airline likely will mostly focus on Los Angeles and San Francisco with its new aircraft. For now, it estimates it has about 13% share in San Francisco and 7% in Los Angeles. “Theres plenty of room to grow without being a

39、significant force on those markets,” he said.Asked if Virgin America needed to expand beyond California, Hunt said it does not. “These are really big markets,” he said. “There are room for a lot of players in these markets.” He addedINFLIGHT ENTERTAINMENTGOL Details Wi-Fi Installation Time LineBrazi

40、ls GOL plans to finish outfitting its first aircraftwith Wi-Fi in the first half of 2016.The airline will then equip the rest of its fleet with Gogos tech- nology in fewer than three years, airline spokeswoman Ludmilla Marchionni told Aviation Daily.Most U.S. carriers have already equipped their fle

41、ets with Wi-Fi, but connectivity is not common in South and Central America. GOL is Gogos first customer in the region, and the first to sign up for technology that streams live television channels to passengers portable devices.In a Dec. 7 investor day presentation, GOL CEO Paulo Sergio Kakinoff de

42、scribed the wireless offering as“gate-to-gate.”“When boarding the plane, the client will have access to all the services and will be able to use the Internet during all the phases of the flight until arrival at the destination,” Kakinoff said. The television service will be free, he said. The airlin

43、e will offer a con- sistent experience on all of its routes. In addition to Wi-Fi and live television, GOL will offer pay-per-view movies and television shows, music and a flight map.It will take the airline about 30 months to install the system on 140 aircraft, he said. GOL operates 139 aircraft to

44、day, including 105 Boeing 737-800s and 34 737-700s. It will also receive four new aircraft from 2016-17.Kristin Majcher, AIRLINESAvianca Brasil Stops Growth Next YearCHICAGOAvianca Brasil is going from 15% capacity growth in 2015, to adding no additional capacity next

45、year, as the airline tries to deal with the economic reces- sion in its home market.The airline, which joined Star Alliance earlier this year, is look- ing at other possible uses for some of the early Airbus A320neosAVIANCA, p. 5 3 DECEMBER 11, 2015STAFFEDITORIAL1911 North Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600

46、, Arlington, VA 22209 Tel:+1-703-997-0333, CARGOSF ExpressTo Intensify Slot Usage With 767sEDITORIAL STAFFEditorIn Chief Madhu Unnikrishnan Deputy Editor Kristin Majcher Editorial Director Joseph C. AnselmoU.S. Reporters James R. Asker, Guy Norris, Brian Sumers, Graham Warwick E

47、urope Cathy Buyck, Jens FlottauAsia-Pacific Bradley Perrett, Adrian SchofieldAssociate Producers Michael Johnson, Donna ThomasCopy Editor Diana BellBEIJINGExploitation of crucial flight slots has been a key factor in the decision of SF ExpressChinas largest freighter operatorto order Boeing 767-300s

48、 converted to freighters, the company says.Delivery of the first 767 is due within weeks, an industry source says. The companys largest aircraft are 12 Boeing 757-200Fs, operated alongside 11 Boeing 737-300Fs and Boeing 737-400Fs.SF Express aims to operate 100 aircraft by 2020, according to Presiden

49、t Li Sheng. While noting that the widebodies will use 25% less fuel per ton-kilometer, a spokes- person for the company adds that substituting 767s for 757s will increase the through- put for crucial flights and slots. Space on runways and airways can both be in short supply in China, even approachi

50、ng midnight, when airports of major cities and routesconnecting them are still busy.CHARTS, DATA & ANALYTICSDirector, Forecasts and Market Insights Brian KoughForecast Analyst Brice GnahoreLead Company Analyst Eric BrownFleet Analysts Brian Bostick, Terra Deskins, Brittany Hill, Douglas StaileySUBSC

51、RIBER SERVICESCustomer Service, New/Renewal SalesAviation Daily, P.O. Box 1175, Skokie, IL 60076-8175 Tel:+1-866-857-0148,Intl.+1-847-763-9147Fax: +1-844-609-4274 Time SavingsThe larger aircraft will also yield time-savings. “To take a simple example, a 757 might depart for a

52、given destination at 10 p.m. and again at 3 a.m.,” the spokesperson says. “If we substitute a 767 for the 757, the 3 a.m. cargo can go with the 10 p.m. cargo.” That leaves more time for meeting delivery commitments at the destination.A 767 can carry 52 metric tons of cargo, compared with the 28 tons

53、 of a 757, the company notes.Industry sources expect SF Express to acquire 30 converted 767s. The aircraft will not be new, contrary to an earlier Aviation Daily story (Aviation Daily, July 24).The company has enough pilots and ground technicians, the spokesperson says.The ease of pilot conversion f

54、rom 757s to 767s helps.In another major project, SF Express is planning to build a dedicated freight air- port in the middle of the countrys main population zone. The company and a local government have agreed on a site at Ezhou, east of Wuhan in the Central Chinese province of Hubei. Other localiti

55、es are vying for the economic prize, however, so the commencement of work still awaits provincial government approval, industry sources say.PRICING/CUSTOM SOLUTIONSDiscounted rates for multiple users and enterprise access available. Custom packages and additional services available including Intelli

56、gence/Research, Fleet Data, Forecasts.User Engagement Laurie Grossman, Tel: +1-646-233-4434 Online access to Aviation Daily is available ADVERTISINGTom Davis Sales DirectorTel: +1-469-854-6717, REPRINTSWrights Media , Tel

57、: 1-877-652-5295 (within U.S.) Tel: 1-281-419-5725 (outside U.S.), PENTONChief Executive Officer David KieselsteinExecutive Vice President & CFO Nicola AllaisSenior Vice President & General Counsel Andrew SchmolkaGroup President Warren N. BimblickIdeal SitesWhatever the merits

58、of particular sites, any location around Wuhan would prob- ably be geographically ideal.Li told a conference in August that express parcels tended to flow from eastern China to the west and from the south to the north.Express freight companies such as his own accounted for 40% of Chinese air cargo in 2014, Li says. SF Express alone handled 20% of the total.The company is improving ground-handling times by setting up its o