人民升值对我国外贸影响的外文翻译.docx

the impact of rmb appreciation as the comprehensive strength of the national economy grows, the chinese currency, the renminbi (rmb) began to appreciate. effects of the rmbs appreciation since july have been felt both domestically and abroad, and will become even more significant with time. china should embrace the new opportunities that appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the national economy to grow in the process of globalization. people need to be aware that the appreciation of the rmb may have some less desirable effects on economic growth in the short term. currently, chinas export market still relies heavily on cheap labor to compete in the international market. as its added value is low, the appreciation of the rmb will affect chinas export and consequently the overall growth rate of the national economy. however, there are also many positive aspects to the appreciation of the rmb. in the long run, rmb appreciation will generate more development opportunities. people will feel richer, it will improve chinas status and influence in the world economy and it will change the commodity structure and the flow of investment. it will also have a significant influence on the structure of domestic production resources. first of all, it will accelerate industrial upgrading. in a market economy, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes and expenses and is an important price indicator. the appreciation of the rmb means that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. rmb appreciation will gradually change the value of the international and domestic markets. domestic enterprises will rely more on sales to the domestic market so that national economic growth is less dependent on export demand and a more reasonable industrial structure will form. secondly, it will promote technical innovation. in many countries, technical innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as a lever. chinas production process is enormously costly in terms of resources and energy, and labor is too cheap. the appreciation of the rmb will cause an increase in the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the demand for innovation. products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more competitive internationally. in the domestic market, enterprises are also forced to compete through technological innovation. simply speaking, the appreciation of the rmb will cause the formation of a market environment that is conducive to speeding up technological innovation. thirdly, the appreciation of the rmb will benefit the people. on the one hand, it will make imported products relatively cheaper. it will also be cheaper for chinese to travel abroad. this will increase consumption. on the other hand, it will push up the market price of domestic financial assets, changing the financial market structure. if other conditions dont change, chinese people will feel richer as the value of their money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. of greater strategic significance is the fact that the appreciation of the rmb will make the price chinese labor price higher. rmb appreciation reflects the success of chinese economic development after reform and opening up. it is also an important turning point in chinas social and economic situation. the downsides to rmb appreciation shouldnt be overemphasized. the fluctuation of the rmb is the result of changes to the current economic structure and will have an important impact on the economic structure of the future. maintaining the status quo is short-sighted and will harm the long-term interests of china. the best choice is to speed up the transformation of the economic growth mode and adapt to the appreciation of rmb to make the most from the process. with the announcement of reforming the rmb exchange rate regime on july 21, 2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of rmbs appreciation on chinas trade. since china being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime, no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question directly. in this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue, coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: japanese yen and euro exchange rate. our results show that rmbs appreciation would not bring severe effects on chinas trade in 2005; however, the possible sustained reduction of export growth in 2006 should be paid more attention. it is also necessary and urgent to press forward with the reform of rmb exchange rate regime, and put up the related supporting policies to avoid such sudden fluctuation as the japanese situation after “plaza accord”.the rmb exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement of exchangerate regime reform on july 21, 2005. the new regime, a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, allows rmb to rise by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the price of the previous day. with its rapid development, chinas economy has become an increasingly important element in the global economic development and integration. against this backdrop, the impacts of rmbs appreciation on chinas trade attract great attention.before this reform of rmb, there has emerged a vast theoretical literature concentrated on the impacts of rmbs revaluation. however, relatively little research has been undertaken on the empirical analysis of this issue. cyn-young park (2005), an economist in asian development bank, analyzed macroeconomic impact of a “one-off ” appreciation of the rmb against the dollar using the oxford economic forecasting model. this work may shed light on the dynamics between global imbalances and revaluation. the oef model framework allows simulation analyses based on the global econometric structure, which will provide some quantitative results for the impacts of a revaluation on the concerned economies, such as the prc, japan, us, and other asian countries. the stability of equilibrium state may be damaged when the regime shifts, which, however, cannot be studied in this model. zhang, a researcher in chinese academy of these results suggested that the impact of a revaluation on chinas economy might change in the proportion of an appreciations scale. in fact, in the short term, the reasonableness of this proportionate result should be doubted.the main body of existing literature, however, has so far mostly centered on quantitative discussion describing the relation between trade and exchange rate. there has been surprisingly little empirical work that focus on the exchange rate regime shift, especially from pegging to the us dollar to a managed floating regime, no existing appropriate model or method can be found to support this kind of research directly. therefore, some indirect methods should be experimented for studying this issue with the substitute variables introduced.in this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a sensitivity analysis of chinas trade to the appreciation of rmb. the first type of scenarios is a hypothetic scenario being related with the current appreciation of rmb by 2%; while the second one that belongs to the historical scenario is based on the historical event-the japanese yens variability after subscribing “plaza accord”.the remaining part of this paper is organized as follows. the theory and method of scenario analyses are introduced in section 2. models and their evaluation are outlined in section 3. forecasting results from scenarios analyses are presented in section 4. scenario analysis (committee on the global financial system, 2000) is a kind of stress testing which serves to estimate potential extreme losses of a portfolio value and give helpful suggestions to the decision makers in risk management of a company or a financial institution. generally, scenario is a means to explore the future economic situation, and identify what might happen and how an organization can act or react upon future developments.the rmbs appreciation should undoubtedly generate extensive and far-reaching implication for chinas economy, especially for exports. this research should be based on establishing and testing econometric models. we establish the evaluatd models for export and trading forms respectively. in the following empirical work, these models are used in the scenario analysis of chinas trade. the sample data are collected over the period from jan. 2005. data on export and import are taken from chinas customs statistics. the exchange rate data are obtained from the university of british columbias website.in this paper, the scenario analysis is used to analyze the effects of rmbs appreciation on chinas trade in 2005 and 2006. our evidence shows that chinas exports would continue to keep a strong increasing trend in the hypothetical scenario being a one-off appreciation of 2%. seen from the current situation about rmb, the similar favorable results may be expected to occur if rmb exchange rate regime would mark a sound operation. therefore, we conclude that chinas eaports would not be affected much by the current appreciation of rmb, and would keep an increasing trend in 2005. on the other hand, despite the rapid development of chinas exports which not only benefit from chinas strong economic development, but also from the strong international competitiveness of export goods, there still exist the risk due to the obvious sustained drop of growth in 2006, which may impede the rapid growth of exports. domestic demand should also be promoted to counteract the risk from the fluctuation of international market. by peoples daily online; the author, chen feixiang, is the director of the economic and financial deparment of tongji university. jel classification: c53, f17, f31key words: rmbs appreciation, chinas trade, scenario analysis人民币升值的影响随着国民经济的综合实力的增长，中国的货币，人民币开始升值。随着7月以来人民币升值的影响已在国内外被感受到，而且随着时间的推移将变得更加显著。中国应把握升值带来的新的机遇，允许更多的在全球化进程中国家经济增长的空间。人们需要知道，人民币升值在短期内经济增长可能有一些不太理想的效果。目前，中国的出口市场仍然依赖大量廉价劳动力在国际市场上竞争。由于其附加值低，人民币升值将影响中国的出口，进一步影响到国民经济的整体增长速度。然而，人民币升值也有很多积极的方面。从长远来看，人民币升值将产生更多的发展机遇。人会感到更加富有，它会提高中国在世界经济中的地位和影响力，它会改变商品结构和投资的流动。在国内生产资源的结构方面，它也将有重大影响力。首先，它将加快产业升级。在市场经济中，汇率的波动涉及到国际收支平衡，也是一个重要的价格指标。人民币升值意味着国内外各种资源的价格，特别是土地和劳动力，将会上升，而这加快必要的调整商品结构和国内同行业。人民币升值将逐步改变了国际和国内市场的价值。国内企业将更多地依靠国内市场的销售，使国家的经济增长是减少对依赖出口的需求，将形成一个较为合理的产业结构。其次，它会促进技术创新。在许多国家，技术创新主要依靠市场机制，这使得利用好价格杠杆。中国的生产过程是极其浪费资源和能源，劳动力太便宜。人民币升值将导劳动力和土地等要素的国内价格的上升，以及刺激创新的需求。出口产品必须依靠技术创新，变得更具国际竞争力。在国内市场，企业也被迫通过技术创新竞争。简单地说，人民币升值将导致市场环境的形成，有利于加快技术创新。第三，人民币升值将造福于人民。一方面，它将使进口产品相对便宜。这也将使中国人出国旅游便宜。这将增加消费。另一方面，将推动国内金融资产的市场价格，改变了金融市场的结构。如果其他条件不改变，中国人民将感到更加富裕，随着其货币价值的增长，并进一步刺激国内需求。更具战略意义的事实是，人民币升值将使中国的劳动力价格更高。人民币升值，反映了改革开放后中国经济发展的成功。这也是在中国的社会和经济形势的重要转折点。不应过分强调人民币升值的缺点。人民币的波动是当前的经济结构变化的结果，将对未来的经济结构产生重要影响。维持现状是短视的，将损害中国的长远利益。最好的选择是加快经济增长方式的转变和适应人民币升值，从而在整个过程中获得最大收益。在2005年7月21日，人民币汇率制度改革的公告中，高度重视已支付人民币升值对中国的贸易的影响。由于中国在过渡挂有管理的浮动汇率制度，没有现成的近似模型和方法可以利用直接调查这个问题。在本文中，情景分析技术是用来给在这个问题上的研究，再加上引进的替代贵重物品：日元和欧元的汇率。我们的研究结果表明，人民币升值不会在2005年对中国的贸易带来严重影响，然而，出口增长可能在2006年持续下降应该引起高度重视。推进人民币汇率制度的改革，并提出了相关的配套政策，以避免日本的情况，如“广场协议”后突然波动，这也是必要和迫切。汇率制度改革后公布的汇率，特别是人民币汇率成为一个热门话题。2005年7月21日，新的汇率制度有管理的浮动汇率制度，根据市场供求和参考一篮子货币的需求，在每天交易0.3的基础上，允许人民币上升2。随着中国经济快速发展，汇率已成为全球经济发展和一体化的日益重