老年住宅公寓项目可行性研究报告.doc

its combination of gases had little oxygen left. hit by a lack of fresh air, my head ached. just as i tried to make the necessary adjustment to this new situation, wang ping appeared. “put on this mask,” he advised. “itll make you feel much better.” he handed it to me and immediately hurried me through to a small room nearby for a rest. i felt better in no time. soon i was back on my feet again and flowing him to collect a hovering carriage driven by computer. these carriages float above the ground and by bending or pressing down in your seat, you can move swiftly. wang ping fastened my safety belt and showed me how to use it. soon i could fly as fast as him. however, i lost sight of wang ping when we reached what looked like a large market because of too many carriages flying by in all directions. he was swept up into the centre of them. just at that moment i had a “time lag” flashback and saw the area again as it had been in the year ad 2008. i realized that i had been transported into the future of what was still my hometown! then i caught sight of wang ping again and flew after him.arriving at a strange-looking house, he showed me into a large, bright clean room. it had a green wall, a brown floor and soft lighting. suddenly the wall moved it was made of trees! i found later that their leaves provided the room with much-needed oxygen. then wang ping flashed a switch on a computer screen, and a table and some chairs rose from under the floor as if by magic. “why not sit down and eat a little?” he said. “you may find this difficult as it is your first time travel trip. just relax, since there is nothing planned on the timetable today. tomorrow youll be ready for some visits.” having said this, he spread some food on the table, and produced a bed from the floor. after he left, i had a brief meal and a hot bath. exhausted, i slid into bed and fell fast asleep. more news later from your loving son,li qing i have seen amazing thingsmy first visit was to a space station considered the most modern in space. described as an enormous round plate, it spins slowly in space to imitate the pull of the earths gravity. inside was an exhibition of the most up-to-date inventions of the 31st century. a guide(g) showed us around along a moveable path.g: good morning to all our visitors from 2008. first were going to examine one of the latest forms of communication among our space citizens. no more typists working on a typewriter or computer! no more postage or postcodes! messages can now be sent using a “thoughtpad”. you place the metal band over your head, clear your mind, press the sending button, think your message and the next instant its sent. its stored on the “thoughtpad” of the receiver. its quick, efficient and environmentally friendly. the only limitation is if the user does not think his or her message clearly, an unclear message may be sent. but we cannot blame the tools for the faults of the user, can we?during the explanation i looked at the pair of small objects called “thoughjtpads” on a table. they just looked like metal ribbons. so ordinary but so powerful! while i was observing them, the path moved us on.g: and now ladies and gentlemen, we are in the “environment area”. people used to collect waste in dustbins. then the rubbish was sent to be buried or burned, am i right?(we nodded.) well, now theres a system where the waste is disposed of using the principles of ecology. a giant machine, always greedy for more, swallows all the waste available. the rubbish is turned into several grades of useful material, such as “fertilizer” for the fields and “soul” for deserts. nothing is wasted, and everything, even plastic bags, is recycled. a great idea, isnt it?i stared at the moving model of the waste machine, absorbed by its efficiency. but again we moved on.g: our third stop shows the changes that have happened to work practices. manufacturing no longer takes place on the earth but on space stations like this one. a group of engineers programmer robots to perform tasks in space. the robots produce goods such as drugs, clothes, furniture, hovering carriages, etc. there is no waste, no pollution and no environmental damage! however, the companies have to train their representatives to live and work in space settlements. they have to monitor the robots and the production. when the goods are ready theyre transported by industrial spaceship back to earth.my mind began to wander. what job would i do? my motivation increased as i thought of the wonderful world of the future.unit 4 my first work assignment“unforgettable”, says new journalistnever will zhou yang (zy) forget his first assignment at the office of a popular english newspaper. his discussion with his new boss, hu xin (hx), was to strongly influence his life as a journalist.hx: welcome. were delighted youre coming to work with us. your first job here will be an assistant journalist. do you have any questions?zy: can i go out on a story immediately?hx: (laughing)thats admirable, but im afraid it would be unusual! wait till youre more experienced. first well put you as an assistant to an experienced journalist. later you can cover a story and submit the article yourself.zy: wonderful. what do i need to take with me? i already have a notebook and camera.hx: no need for a camera. youll have a professional photographer with you to take photographs. youll find your colleagues very eager to assist you, so you may be able to concentrate on photography later if you re interested.zy: thank you. not only am i interested in photography, but i took an amateur course at university to update my skills.hx: good.zy: what do i need to remember when i go out to cover a story?hx: you need to be curious. only if you ask many different questions will you acquire all the information you need to know. we say a good journalist must have a good “nose” for a story. that means you must be able to assess when people are not telling the whole truth and then try to discover it. they must use research to inform themselves of the missing parts of the story.zy: what should i keep in mind?hx: here comes my list of dos and donts: dont miss your deadline, dont be rude, dont talk too much, but make sure you listen to the interviewee carefully.zy: why is listening so important?hx: well, you have to listen for detailed facts. meanwhile you have to prepare the next question depending on what the person says.zy: but how can i listen carefully while taking notes?hx: this is a trick of the trade. if the interviewee agrees, you can use a recorder to get the facts straight. its also useful if a person wants to challenge you. you have the evidence to support your story.zy: i see! have you ever had a case where someone accused your journalists of getting the wrong end of the stick?hx: yes, but it was a long time ago. this is how the story goes. a footballer was accused of taking money for deliberately not scoring goals so as to let the other team win. we went to interview him. he denied taking money but we were skeptical. so we arranged an interview between the footballer and the man supposed to bribe him. when we saw them together we guessed from the footballers body language that he was not telling the truth. so we wrote an article suggesting he was guilty. it was a dilemma because the footballer could have demanded damages if we were wrong. he tried to stop us publishing it but later we were proved right. zy: wow! that was a real “scoop”. im looking forward to my first assignment now. perhaps ill get a scoop too!hx: perhaps you will. you never know. getting the “scoop”“quick,” said the editor. “get that story ready. we need it in this edition to be ahead of the other newspapers. this is a scoop.” zou yang had just come back into the office after an interview with a famous film star. “did he really do that?” asked someone from the international news department. “yes, im afraid he did,” zhou yang answered. he set to work. his first task was to write his story, but he had to do it carefully. although he realized the man had been lying, zhou yang knew he must not accuse him directly. he would have to be accurate, concise too! he knew how to do that. months of training had taught him to write with no wasted words or phrases. he sat down at his computer and began to work.the first person who saw his article was a senior editor from his department,. he checked the evidence, read the article and passed it on to the copy-editor. she began to edit the piece and design the main headline and smaller heading. “this will look very good on the page,”老年住宅公寓计划立项可行性研究报告目录一、 重庆市房地产市场概况 二、老年住宅市场分析1、老龄化市场机遇分析 2重庆市老龄化现状 3、重庆市老年住宅市场现状4、重庆老年人住宅市场发展趋势三、项目规划要求四、项目投资预算1、项目投资与成本费用估算2、项目投入产出与回报五、项目风险分析六、风险规避建议与结论一、重庆市房地产市场纵观上半年重庆市房地产市场今年上半年，重庆市房地产投资增长26.6%左右，同期全市gdp增长26.3%，房地产开发投资增幅同全市经济发展基本同步。新开工面积增长28.1%，竣工面积增长29.8%，竣工面积增长幅度大于新开工面积增长幅度；竣工面积增长29.8%，销（预）售面积增长40.3%，销（预）售面积增长幅度大于竣工面积增长幅度。数字显示：重庆市房地产市场供销两旺，呈现出健康、持续、平稳、扩张的发展态势。 开发投资额大幅增长今年上半年重庆市房地产总投资238.68亿元，同比增长26.6%，占全社会固定资产总投资的26.3%。其中：住宅投资152.45亿元，同比增长40.6%，占总投资的73.65% （经济房开发投资17.62亿元，占住宅投资的11.56%）。办公楼投资4.62亿元，同比增长11%；商铺投资21.16亿元，同比增长3.2%。 新开工面积稳步增加，住宅开发占主导地位新开工面积较快增长，经济适用房保持快速增长态势。上半年，全市商品房新开工面积1333.87万平方米，同比增长28.1%。其中，住宅新开工面积1101.40万平方米，增长28.8%；办公楼新开工面积30.49万平方米，增长 43.7%；商业营业用房新开工面积117.15万平方米，增长 17.2%。上半年，全市经济适用房施工面积522.76万平方米，其中新开工建设经济适用房面积87.81万平方米，增长 98.7%。 消费市场需求旺盛，商品房销售连续三年保持两位数增长商品房销售势头良好。上半年，商品房销售面积为910.22万平方米，同比增长40.3%。1至5月，全市商品房销售额225.92亿元，同比增长50.1%。其中，住宅销售额192.72亿元，增长52.3%；办公楼销售额4.44亿元，增长11.9%；商业营业用房销售额26.43亿元，增长37%。 商品房销售价格涨势不止由于“新特区”土地升值的预期、国务院重庆市城乡总体规划（20072020年）文件的出台等因素的影响，2007年下半年综合物业价格预计将不断上扬。上半年：住宅类物业销售均价为3353.4元/，同比上涨7.25%；写字楼物业全年销售均价为5339.97元/，同比上涨4.3%。 国内外房地产大鳄纷纷登陆重庆随着重庆成为继上海浦东新区和天津滨海新区之后的又一“新特区”，具有独特的区位优势，其房地产市场所蕴含着的巨大潜力日益彰显；同时，目前重庆市人均住房建筑面积仅24.3平方米，处于全国中游水平，同发达国家和我国发达城市相比还有很大的发展空间，居民住房需求潜力大；重庆市地价底、房价低，利润上升空间也很大。因此，国内外房地产开发企业均看好重庆的市场前景，纷纷通过各种渠道，涌入重庆市场寻找商机。据不完全统计，截至去年，已有153家外资房地产企业掏出149.27亿元资金“砸”入重庆楼市，资金总量占到了全市外商投资企业的“总盘子”的26.6%。也就是说，近年来进入重庆的外资中，有超过两成的资金进入了房地产市场。这些企业均拥有先进的营销理念、雄厚的资金实力、优良的管理团队、先进的技术水平，这无疑将加剧房地产市场的竞争，同时也有利于进一步繁荣房地产市场，带动重庆楼市逐渐由低端价格竞争向高端产品品质、环境乃至人居文化竞争的转变，调整和提升产品结构和品质，提高重庆市房地产开发的整体水平。综上所述：2007年上半年重庆市房地产市场较为火爆：施工面积、竣工面积、商品房销（预）售面积、销售额均创历史新高，增幅也大大超过往年，出现了供需两旺的喜人局面。下半年的房地产市场将是上半年房地产市场的延续和发展，前两个季度房地产运行的各项经济指标和成为新特区后的市场预期必然将影响下半年房地产市场的发展和走势。由此预测：下半年重庆市房地产市场将继续走高，全面上扬。二、老年人住宅市场分析（一）老龄化市场机遇分析 我国已进入老龄化社会阶段按照国际标准，当一个国家或地区65岁以上人口占总人口7%或60岁以上人口占总人口10%以上时，即为老龄化社会。据有关统计资料显示，目前我国是世界上老年人口最多的国家，60岁以上的老龄人口约为1.45亿，占我国总人口的11.2%，而且这个数字每年都在以3%的速度增长。我国进入老龄化社会已是不争的事实。根据国家有关部门统计预测，到2025年，老年人将占全国总人口19.34%；到2040年，老年人将占全国总人口的27.8%，届时每三个半人口中就有一个老年人口。 “老年人住宅市场”潜力巨大2000年国家有关部门通过调查和分析预测，到本世纪一十年代末，中国退休劳动者一生的积蓄总和相当于全国国内生产总值的1/3；另据中国老龄人协会估计，中国老年人消费约每年3000亿人民币，而且随着老年人消费观念的逐步转变，其消费数额还将得到进一步增长。由此可见“老年人市场”是一个潜力很大的市场，老年人产业尤其是老年人住宅产业是一个极待开发的产业。 养老观念逐步转移受传统观念的影响（他们认为那些所谓的养老院是些没儿、没女的孤寡老人的安身之地），国内老年人养老讲究“三代同堂”，老死不离儿孙。但随着近年居民生活水平的提高和居住观念的改变；核心家庭趋于普及，传统家庭逐渐减少，一方面下一代与老一代分居现象不断增加，另一方面家庭结构演变又表现为老少两代在居住上“分而不离，离而不远”的特点，因此老年人不堪忍受“空巢”的孤单寂寞之苦，从过去不肯到养老院开始向往养老院，养老观念和居住观念正在发生根本性变化。 家庭因素催生老年人住宅的产生和发展自我国七十年代中期实行计划生育控制以来，“三口之家”现已成为社会的主力家庭结构。许多独生子女成家之后，所面临的是每对中青年夫妇在繁忙的工作压力和残酷的生存发展竞争条件下要照料四个老人和一个孩子，时间和精力严重不足，再加之老年人多愁善感及实际上的“代沟”，由此引起了一系列没完没了的家庭烦恼及社会问题，老年人公寓呼声高涨，呼之欲出。 国家鼓励开发商进行老年人住宅地产的开发面对我国进入老年化社会，老年人生活问题已越来越被社会所关注。在2003年召开中共十六大三中全会上有关代表提及老年人养老一事，中央领导对此十分重视。近日国家民政部及地方各级民政部门从社会各方面宣传全面关心和帮助老人，尤其是老年人养老与生活方面，并鼓励开发商从事老年人住宅的开发。总结：纵观我国房地产开发产业，许多年来，大众化住宅开发一直是市场开发的主体，造成这种市场开发失衡的原因归根结底是老年人住宅市场尚不成熟。但从今天老年人口基数、老年人社会问题以及老年人养老观念重大转变的趋势看，实施老年人地产开发应该说是一种机遇，老年人住宅开发恰逢其时，水到渠成。可以预见，老年人住宅逐步被消费者（老年人极其子女）所接受，谁抢占了开发先机，谁就开拓了新的市场，也就赢得了市场竞争。（二）重庆市老龄化现状 人口老龄化加剧中国老年人口的绝对数量最多的直辖市相信这是重庆不得不戴上的桂冠。2000年全市65岁及以上的老人为244.54万人，每100人里8人年龄超过65岁；2004年底全市年满60周岁以上的老人已达414万。目前，这种壮观的老龄化趋势不会停滞，在未来几年还会逐年上升，到2010年，老年人口将达到500万，占全市总人口的15%，相当于每6个重庆人里就有1位老人。目前，根据2004年全市65岁及以上人口达到了10.9%，80岁以上高龄老人达到1.6%，这说明重庆在人口老龄化的同时，老龄化也在以平均每年0.1个百分点的速度上升。据有关部门调查，目前重庆市有“空巢老人”180万人，约占全市老年人总数的40%以上。 “421”家庭的“泛滥”长期以来，重庆一直是实行计划生育政策相对严格的地区之一，出生率、死亡率和自然增长率的不断降低，巩固了“低出生、低死亡、低增长”的现代型人口再生产模式。但与此同时，老年人口数量大、上升速度快也成为重庆人口变动的一大隐忧。 4个老人、1对夫妻、1个孩子，这种被称为“421”模式的家庭正越来越多。而“421”家庭引发的一个最主要的社会问题就是养老压力，据最近一项调查显示，35%的城市家庭要赡养4位老人，49%的城市家庭要赡养2到3位老人。而从赡养费看，35.6%的城市家庭每年花费超过1万元。出于对医疗保险体系的担忧，家庭积极储蓄，不敢增加消费支出，是现在中年人的普遍心态。 “未富先老”发达国家在进入老年型社会时，人均国内生产总值一般在5000到10000美元，而中国目前为1000美元。重庆市老年协会的一项问卷调查显示，近半数老年人由于经济收入低影响生活质量的提高，其余的依次为缺乏科学养生知识、居住环境差、身体健康状况不好、生活内容单调、情绪不稳定和子女不孝敬等因素。 令人担忧的是截至06年底，重庆市60岁及以上人口基本养老保险覆盖率很低，仅为14.2%；基本医疗保险覆盖率是14.7%，明显滞后于重庆市人口老龄化的步伐。事实上，人口老龄化趋势也考验着养老体制。 （三）重庆市老年住宅市场现状 老年人住宅明显不足截止到2006年，重庆城乡社会福利院有142个，农村敬老院1126个。各类城乡养老福利机构床位总数达近6万张，收养老人超过3万人。 但目前重庆市年满60周岁及以上老年人有414万人。按照现在全市床位数计算，每100位老人才能摊上1.5张床。而按照发达国家的标准，100名老人中，应有5至7人能住进养老院。由此推算，重庆福利设施还远不能满足社会的需求，养老机构的发展空间非常大。 户型设计不合理、功能相对单一现有的养老院户型面积大小不等，主要为单人间、双人间和多人间，房屋布局不合理，功能不全，不能满足老年人住宅特殊功能要求，更不能从规划设计上充分体现人性化关怀。 住宅区规模小、配套设施不足目前重庆市的养老公寓以中小型为主，多属传统的养老院、福利院，拥有200个床位以上规模的还比较少。整体规划设计落后，生活设施不完善，健身、休闲、娱乐设施单一，医疗护理、保健不配套，服务水平低下，缺乏人性化，不能满足老年人特别是新一代老年人的心理和生理需求。 环境质量有待提升重庆市现有的养老院中，绝大部坐落在主城区内，噪音和空气污染大，且多数的养老院用房是经翻新过的民宅和企事业单位用房，房屋简陋，内部安全隐患突出，绿化植被缺乏，总体环境质量有待提升。 服务人员缺乏专业培训在养老院从事服务的人员多为下岗职工，他们没有经过专业的上岗培训，缺乏心理和护理专业知识，对老人的服务只是满足于简单的端茶、送饭、洗衣，而无法从老年人的心理和生理需求的角度出发，提供人性化的全方位专业服务。总结：重庆市现有养老院、敬老院均属计划经济的产物，多属行政救助和自助行为。从实际情况看，养老院的功能仅仅停留在为老年人提供一个寄宿和同龄人交流的场所，功能相对单一，配套设施、管理水平、服务质量落后，人居环境较差。（四）重庆老年人住宅市场发展趋势 民办产权式老年公寓将成为未来老年人住宅市场的发展趋势纵观重庆市老年人住宅市场的发展现状，各养老院无论是从硬件设施和软件配套上都存在数量和质量的问题。许多老年人既想远离城市的喧嚣和孤单又恐在养老院无法满足宁静、舒适生活的要求，民办产权式老年公寓的出现将打消老年人养老的多种顾虑，在北京、广州等地此类型的养老住宅深受老年人喜爱。民办养老机构的优势表现在，体制机制灵活，适应性强；经营策略上更多思考；管理手段上多样，市场化运作；负责程度上责任心强，全年无休，以院为家，是事业型；运作成本上更经济、有效。 老年人住宅将逐步从主城区向城郊转移老年人进入养老院等福利机构的目的就是安享晚年和健康长寿，因此对环境质量要求较多，而现有的养老院、福利院因历史原因，大多选址于主城区内，噪音和空气污染相当严重。相信随着老年人对养老质量要求的提高，其老年人住宅从主城区向城郊转移将成必然之势，且唯有城郊独特的地理环境才能满足老年人对居住环境的特殊要求。 老年人住宅的开发以中档为主、辅之中低档和中高档产品对老年人公寓的档次之分，现尚无明确界定，但可以肯定重庆市现有养老院中绝大多数应界定为低档产品，而绝大多数老年人需求的中档产品严重不足。高档产品市场稀缺，有效需求相对较大。低档产品仍有市场，但需要升级换代。总之中档老年住宅产品的开发将成为未来一段时间内市场开发的主流，而高档产品、低档产品也将占有一席之地。 “山水型老年公寓”将更受消费者青睐随着居民生活水平的提高，老年人对居住的要求更加讲究。他们年轻时由于竞争环境和迫于生计，终年奔波于城市中间，渴望回到自然却又无法自主，退休后如释重负，轻松了，无牵挂了，迫切需要回归自然，与山水园林亲密接触，过着“桃花源”式的田园生活，颐养天年。因此“山水型老年公寓”的出现将倍受他们的青睐。三、项目规划根据对项目的具体定位，结合开发设想，在此提出项目规划方案，以期为项目开发分析提供依据。在老年人的住宅规划和设计上，不仅要满足居住功能的要求，使老年人的居住建筑设计达到安全、卫生、方便和适用的要求，还要无处不在的体现出对老人的关怀，更要考虑社会心理学所涉及的居住心理问题。 设计要人性化要方便老人出行，不能有过多的台阶，有台阶处应有相应的轮椅通道；楼梯两侧要有扶手，路面间隔200m应设休息坐椅，室内地面应采用防滑设计，按纽均采用大型号，避免老年人因视力下降而使用不方便等等，总之设计要人性化，满足老年人的特殊使用要求。 生活要智能化应配备紧急呼叫对讲系统，网络系统、消防系统等保障老人安全。 环境要园林化应有幽雅的环境，让老人充分享受阳光，接触自然，广阔的公共活动空间以及安全的娱乐、锻炼场所。 户型要合理化应充分考虑不同年龄阶段、不同阶层等因素，每户面积控制在4060左右。户型设计要个性化、合理化。 配套要完善化小区应配有完善的医疗保健、超市商场、银行、保险、邮局、会所、健身房、阅览室、书画室、花房、老年大学、棋牌娱乐室、门球场、钓鱼台等生活配套设施。四、项目投资成本预算（一）项目投资与成本费用估算1、地块项目开发假设条件 规划用地总面积：100亩， 66700。 土地用途：住宅用地 使用功能：居住养老 建筑形态：以多层为主，小高层为辅，底层架空 建筑高度：（多层约6层）18.6m （小高层约12层）36.6 m 综合容积率：1.5 绿化面积：40% 总户数：按50/户计算约为631户， 总人口：按人均28计算约为1128人 商品房市场售价：其中小高层2000元/，建面约21466；多层1800元/，建面约10120；商铺3800元/，建面约1200。2、建设开发成本估算 前期费用序 号费用科目金 额1土地费用1200万元2土地出让金200万元3拆迁管理费200万元4城市基础配套费300万元5总规划设计图30万元6施工图设计40万元7园林景观设计20万元8人防费100万9消防建审费20万元10抗震费20万11白蚁费2万元合计2130万元 中期费用序 号费用科目金 额1建管费30万元2地质勘探费30万3质量监督费60万元4施工监理费60万元5桩基费（综合取费）800万元6招标费20万元7土建施工费（综合取费）2600万元8水电、消防安装施工1000万元9室外排水工程（含水循环系统）300万元10室外道路工程500万元11绿化景观工程300万元12噪音防治费20万元13公建、配套装修及设施设备100万元14电梯费用30万元合计5850万 后期费用序号费用科目金额1办理商品房销（预）售许可证40万元4广告、宣传费500万元5银行利息100万元6垃圾处理费50万元7营业税500万元10商品房维修基金（综合）50万元11办理权证50万元合计1290万元 开发管理费、不可预见费：（前期费用+中期费用+后期费用）2%=（2130万+5850万+1290万）2%=185.4万 开发总成本估算：投资开发总成本=（前期费用）2130万+（中期费用）5850万+（后期费用）1290万+（开发管理费、不可预见费）185.4万=9455.4万（二）项目投入产出与回报1、销售价格确定由于本案具体地理位置尚未明确，无法运用市场比较法确定项目的销售价格，只能参照其他城市及本市类似项目来确定销售价格。故现将销售价格暂定为：多层住宅1800元/平方米，小高层住宅2000元/平方米，商铺3800元/平方米，并以此价格进行销售收入计算。（待项目具体地理位置确定后再依照科学的方法合理定价）2、销售总收入 住宅销售收入：2000元/21466+1800元/10120=6114.8万元 商铺销售收入：3800元/1200=4560万元 销售总收入：住宅销售收入+商铺销售收入=6114.8万+4560万=10674.8万元3、项目销售总利润项目投资开发总利润 = 总销售收入10674.8万元项目总成本9455.4万元=1219.4万元 4、成本利润率项目投资开发总利润/项目总成本=1219.4万元/9455.4万元=12.9%五、项目风险分析1、老年人及其子女对老年公寓这种居住养老方式的认可需要一段时间重庆市有60岁以上老年人近500万，可谓市场大，潜力大，但就老年人住宅市场而言，虽然“核心家庭”逐年增多，传统家庭逐年减少，但这毕竟需要一个时间过程，特别是老年公寓这种居住养老方式和生活方式必须得到老年人客户群体及其子女认可，而认知、认可更需要一个时间过程，其认可程度决定了老年人住宅市场成熟程度，认可时间长短决定了老年人住宅市场成熟时间长短，因此，本项目风险之一就在于老年人及其子女对老年公寓这种居住养老方式的认可程度及时间长短。2、消费群体的特殊性和项目产权归属的敏感性导致项目具有较大风险房地产业是高风险、高投入的产业。房地产项目除了项目营销运作之外，在很大程度上还有一个资金运作，项目营销运作和资金运作的成功与否决定着项目开发成功与否。老年住宅项目面对的是60岁以上的特殊消费群体，他们虽有积蓄，但由于赡养老人，子女读书成家，所剩节余有限，购置老年公寓住宅在很大程度上要借助银行住房按揭贷款和子女资助，特别是我国银行现行房贷政策对60岁以上老年人是不发放住房贷款的，这样老年人购房资金来源要么以子女名义贷款购房，要么由老年人独资购房，要么老年人出资，子女资助购房。不论哪一种筹资购房形式都涉及一个产权和继承权的敏感问题，特别是多子女的老年人家庭将更加敏感。因此老年人购房资金的来源及房贷政策的障碍或多或少会影响老年人购房消费，也必然会给房地产开发商带来资金回笼资金周转的负面影响，这是本项目风险之二。六、风险规避建议与结论老年住宅项目强调地理位置优越和自然环境良好，同时市场需求很大，拥有可观的经济效益和良好的社会效益，是一个充满商机和可行度较高的项目。但为了提高本项目抗风险能力，化不利为有利因素，将风险值降低到最低程度，特提如下建议：1、认真进行项目选址。老年人公寓项目必须具有能满足老年人养老心理和生理需求的个性和特色，选择好项目地段是打造老年人公寓个性和特色的载体和必须的物资条件，老年人公寓项目能否成功关键在地段，因为地段是唯一的，是其它条件不可替代的。2、本项目必须要做好总体规划，有了科学完整、统一的总体规划，项目就具有了“量身定做”的依据，更加有效的避免项目开发建设中的随意性、盲目性，确保项目的顺利实施。3、项目实施前，还应在本案报告基础上进一步进行市场调研。在调查过程中，对重庆老年住宅市场不但要进行定性分析，还要进行定量分析，以便从营销角度对老年人住宅市场项目定位，市场前景作出准确判断并提出详尽而具有针对性和可操作性的方案，以便化解风险。综上所述，随着重庆市房地产市场竞争日渐激烈，房地产开发商依据市场整体发展趋势，通过市场分析，避开激烈竞争的房产市场，另辟蹊径，转而投资新式老年住宅公寓，是富有远见的选择。its 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