2013年第二季度深圳服务式公寓市场报告.pdf

2013 q2 in the second quarter of 2013, shenzhen first- hand housing market remained fairly active. this quarter, the market has witnessed con- tinuous increases in both sales volumes and prices, but the rate of increase was seen mod- erated by the quarter end. substantial rigid de- mand was still keeping its dominance over the market. meanwhile, a couple of newly launched projects in nanshan and futian districts further bought up the average first-hand housing pric- es in the whole city. as indicated by statistics, the city-wide first-hand housing sales volume for the first quarter was recorded 1,286,011 sq m, up by 19.9% q-o-q, and the average trans- action price edged up by 14.7% to rmb 22,710 per sq m, showing a twin growth in both vol- ume and price. in sharp contrast to the first-hand sector, the second-hand housing market cooled down rapidly. due to the fact that the government of shenzhen decided not to implement the sec- ond-hand housing transaction tax, the “panic buying” has come to an abrupt end, leading to a nearly 40% plummet in sales volume. in terms of luxurious housing, jingshanjinhai went public in may of the second quarter. this project includes three types of products, which are high-rise elite housings, detached villas and townhouses, and their respective prices range from rmb 58,000 to 90,000 per sq m with an average of rmb 80,000 per sq m. generally speaking, the luxurious housing market will gradually absorb existing stock, and the sales price will increase further. 2013年第二季度，深圳市一手住宅市场保持活 跃。成交面积与成交均价，在此季度的三个月 内，逐月上涨，但涨幅逐渐放缓。大量的刚性需 求仍然主导着深圳房市，而福田、南山本季度相 继推出的几个高价楼盘则将全市新房均价进一 步拉高。根据深圳市房地产信息系统公开数据显 示，全市一手商品房成交面积录得1,286,011平方 米，环比上升19.9，成交均价则达到22,710元/ 平方米，环比增长14.7，总体呈现出“量价齐 升”之势。 与活跃的一手房市场形成鲜明对比的，则是迅速 冷却的二手房市场。因深圳市政府决定暂不实施 税率为20的二手房交易税，二手房市场的“抢 购潮”本季度骤停，成交量环比大跌近四成。 豪宅市场方面，第二季度，位于南山区的鲸山觐 海于五月份入市。此项目包含高层、独栋别墅与 联体别墅三种产品类型，价格区间在58,000至 90,000之间，均价达到80,000元/平方米。总体而 言，深圳豪宅市场以消化存量为主，市场售价仍 将处于上升通道。 vacancy rental q2 2013 | the knowledge research the vacancy rate stood a bit lower than the previous quarter at 15%. currently, the gross yield in the market amounted to about 3.0- 4.0%. most top-notch serviced apartments are situated in futian and nanshan district. marriot executive apartments and intercontinental apartments under two international hotel brands both applied an above-average pric- ing standard. together with other serviced apartments under big brand names, they boosted the average rental for serviced apartments in nan- shan district to the top of shenzhen, i.e. rmb 236 per sq m, ascending by 3.1, q-o-q. nevertheless, the vacancy rate of nanshan district also topped the other districts, namely, 16%. during this quarter, no fluctua- tion could be witnessed regarding the rental for serviced apartments in futian district, leveling off at rmb 222/sq m/month whereas its va- cancy rate descended marginally to 14.6%. in terms of level and service, serviced apartments in luohu districts had already fallen behind those of futian and nanshan districts. the average rental in luohu districts this quarter was rmb 162/sq m/ month, rising up by 2% on a quarter on quarter basis whilst its vacancy rate dropped from 25% during first quarter to 20% during the second one. 2013年第二季度，深圳全市范围内无新增服务式公寓项目，原定于本季度 开业的福田君临天下雅诗阁服务式公寓项目开业时间因故延后，预计将于 2014年第一季度开业。随着商务往来与展会活动的日渐频繁，全市服务式 公寓的空置率迎来了小幅的下降。于此同时，于第一季度末开业的万豪行政 公寓，因其远高于市场平均值的租金，使全市服务式公寓平均租金进一步上 调。 2013年第二季度，深圳服务式公寓市场平均租金录得每平米每月215元，环 比上涨3.9，涨幅平稳；市场平均空置率则为15左右，比上季度18.5% 的平均空置率略低。目前全市服务式公寓年收益率约在3.0-4.0左右。 福田区与南山区汇聚了深圳市最为高档的服务式公寓。南山区的两个国际酒 店品牌旗下的服务式公寓万豪行政公寓与华侨城洲际酒店公寓，都采用 了远高于市场平均水平的定价标准。此两个项目与其他品牌服务式公寓一同 将南山区平均租金带领至全市最高的236元/平方米/月，环比上涨约3.1； 但空置率也同样为全市各区中最高的16。本季度福田区服务式公寓租金 则没有发生变化，依然停留在222元/平方米/月，空置率微弱下调至14.6 。罗湖区服务式公寓在档次与服务上，已逐渐落后于福田、南山两区，本季 度该片区租金为162元/平方米/月，环比上涨两个百分点，空置率则由第一 季度的25下降至20。 serviced apartment leasing market服务式公寓租赁市场 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 table 1 major economic indicators of shenzhen 表1 深圳市主要经济指标 indicator 指标 shenzhen gdp 深圳gdp china gdp 中国gdp cpi 居民消费价格指数 source: guangzhou statistics bureau, colliers international 资料来源: 深圳市统计局，高力国际 2012 17.3% 9.5% 1.3% 5.76% 15.1% 9.9% 1.6% 5.76% 16.6% 10.7% 2.2% 6.3% 14.8% 11.4% 7.47% 4.1% 12.1% 9% 5.9% 5.76% 10.7% 8.7% -1.3% 5.76% 12.2% 10.4% 3.5% 5.85% 10.0% 9.2% 5.4% 6.65% 10.0% 7.8% 2.8% 6.15% 贷款基准利率（一 到三年期商业贷款 利率） source: shenzhen statistics bureau, colliers international 资料来源: 深圳市统计局，高力国际 20042005200620072008200920102011 figure 1 shenzhen gdp growth vs. national gdp growth 图1 深圳gdp增长率vs.全国gdp增长率 shenzhen gdp 深圳 gdpchina gdp 中国 gdp 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 2012 p. 2 | colliers international research & forecast report i q2 2013 i shenzhen serviced apartment market 2006200820102011200520072009 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 20062008201020112005200720092012 as shown by the newly published macroeconomic statistics, the growth rate of gdp and cpi has been moderated. moreover, the majority of insti- tutions and scholars expected that the growth of gdp in china will stand between 7% and 8% by the end of the year. hence, owing to the uncer- tainties in the economy, credit limit and restrictions on housing purchas- ing, as well as the property tax that is under discussion, we expect that the housing price for the latter half of 2013 will be tested by downward pressure, and the growth of it will likely further moderate. as for luxurious housing, kingkey yundingyutong, which consists of a va- riety of products ranging from townhouses, villas, stacked villas, to high- rise mansions, will be introduced in august as planned. future high-end projects will normally have a diverse product mix, while projects with villa as the only type of product will be rare in the long run. in the short run, there will be no new supply of serviced apartment in shenzhen. the ascott in futian delayed its opening to the beginning of the year 2014. the average rental of the serviced apartments in shen- zhen will increase steadily, and vacancy rate is expected to decrease as current stock being gradually taken up. outlook 此前出台的宏观经济数据显示，我国国内生产总值与消费者价格指数都放 缓增长，多数机构与学者预计今年我国gdp涨幅最终将提留在7至8之 间。在宏观经济较不明朗的情况下，“限购、限贷”的调控政策，加之以扩 围在即的房产税，将继续对房价施加向下压力，下半年房价增幅有望进一步 放缓。 豪宅方面，京基云景梧桐按计划将于8月初推出市场，此项目将包含联排、 叠拼、独栋或高层豪宅多种形态。长期来看，未来市场新增豪宅项目均将包 含多种产品组合，纯别墅项目将十分罕见。 短期内深圳市场将无新增服务式公寓落成，原定于8月份开业的福田君临 天下雅诗阁服务式公寓将延后至2014年初开业。市场将以消化现有库存为 主。预计未来全市服务式公寓租金将保持平稳上涨，平均空置率随着市场的 逐渐吸纳将小幅下降。 市场展望 2012 source: colliers international 资料来源：高力国际 source: colliers international 资料来源：高力国际 figure 2 shenzhen serviced apartment rental (2005-2013 q2) 图2 深圳服务式公寓租金 figure 3 shenzhen serviced apartment supply, take-up and vacancy rate 图3 深圳服务式公寓市场供应量、入住量和空置率 supply供应量take-up入住量vacancy rate空置率rmb/sq m/month 0 100 150 250 200 50 30% 20% 10%