长江水质的评价和预测.doc

长江水质的评价和预测 长江水质的评价和预测摘要长江是我国第1、世界第3大河流，长江水质的污染程度日趋严重，已引起了相关政府部门和专家们的高度重视。本文对长江近年来的相关数据进行分析，建立了对长江水质的评价和趋势预测模型。针对问题1，本文采用“客观性权重的变异系数法”和统计回归两种方法，给出了两个长江水质评价模型。两个模型各有特色，并利用模型对长江水质进行了评价。针对问题2，本文以各个站点间的污染物排放量作为标准，通过分析和计算，得出如下结论：高锰酸盐和氨氮污染物主要集中在湖北宜昌至湖南岳阳段。针对问题3，本文采用指数平滑法，建立了时间序列预测模型。针对问题4，本文采用指数平滑法预测了长江未来10年的污水排放量。经过分析计算得出污水排放量对长江水质的影响。通过优化模型得到未来10年长江的污水处理量最小值分别为：22.5847, 41.2473, 60.0451, 78.9780, 98.0460, 117.2492, 136.5875, 156.0609, 175.6694, 195.4131 关键词：客观性权重的变异系数法，统计回归,指数平滑法。 the estimation and trend forecast of the quality of changjiang rivers water abstractthe changjiang river is the first longest river in our country, and the third longest river in the world. but its water was polluted worse and worse. it has aroused the attention of related government department and experts. this report analyzed the recent years survey of the changjiang river, and had made water quality estimate and trend forecast model.  as to first problem, the report has to methods: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty and the regress of stat. each of the two models has its own characters. and it estimated the water quality by the two ways.as to second problem, the report made let quantity of contamination between two points as the estimated standard. by analyzing and calculating i find the result.  the result is the main pollution, codmn and nh3-n, is between hubeiyichang and hunanyueyang.as to third problem, it had the smooth exponential method, and made time list forecast model.as to forth problem, it forecasted the let quantity of contamination in 10 years future by the smooth exponential method. after analysis and calculation, the minimum of treading saluted water quantity is:22.5847, 41.2473, 60.0451, 78.9780, 98.0460, 117.2492, 136.5875, 156.0609, 175.6694, 195.4131 keyword: the co