摩根斯坦利2010年一季度全球金属行业报告.doc

m o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hresearchglobalmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook 2q10navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a stronger us dollar cyclical growth trends are still supportive for commodities as unprecedented fiscal and monetary easing in 2009 is generating a two speed growth environment in 2010 led by emerging markets, especially in asia and latin america. we see policy initiatives to scale back liquidity or confront inflation either as welcome signs of policy normalisation or prudent actions designed to sustain growth and economic development base metals outlook: we expect continued differentiation in relative performance in base metals in 2010, with more robust fundamentals in copper and nickel expected to deliver strong yoy price gains relative to aluminium and zinc. precious metals outlook: a strengthening us dollar is a significant headwind for gold and silver investment demand, but a recovery in global automotive production is a strong positive for the platinum group metals. bulk commodity outlook: a move to more frequent pricing mechanisms for steel-making raw materials is driving a sharp uplift in prices of iron ore and metallurgical coal, with upside risks to consensus expectations on 2010 average price outcomes.global metals and mining teamforecast changes most positive for nickel, palladium, metallurgical coal, iron ore, and steel.preferred commodity exposures by sector: base metals copper and nickel precious metals platinum bulks iron ore and metallurgical coalshighest conviction overweight equities: vedanta plc panaust ltd western areas nl evraz plc xstrata plc implats ltd tata steel ltd vale incmorgan stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in morgan stanley research. as a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of morgan stanley research. investors should consider morgan stanley research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.for analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the disclosure section, located at the end of this report.+= analysts employed by non-u.s. affiliates are not registered with finra, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to nasd/nyse restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst accountm o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10table of contents4executive summary4key changes6top picks7economic and commodities outlook base metals precious metals8top equity ideasaluminum & alumina18gold29vedantaephrem ravicopper21nickel24zinc26silver32platinum34bulk commoditiessteel38met coal42iron ore45thermal coal4852panaust53craig campbellwestern areas54cameron juddevraz55dmitriy kolomystynxstrata56ephrem raviimplats57albert minassiantata steel58vipul prasadvale59carlos de albam o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10global commodities teamglobal metals & mining (australia) latin america steel, metals & mining, pulp & paper (new york/so paulo)peter richardson +61 3 9256 8934carlos de alba1 212 761 4927joel crane+61 3 9256 8961bruno montanari +55 11 3048 6225emea metals & mining, steel (london) non-japan asia metals & mining (singapore/seoul/hong kong)ephrem ravi +44 20 7425 2127charles spencer (team leader) +65 6834 6825carsten riek +44 20 7425 3075sangkyoo park (seoul coverage) +82 2 399 4846markus almerud +44 20 7425 9870hyunjae lee (seoul coverage) +82 2 399 4850alain gabriel +44 20 7425 8959sandy niu (china coverage) +852 2239 1520mean phil chong +65 6834 6194emea metals & mining, steel (moscow) john lam + 852 2848 5412dmitriy kolomytsyn + 7 495 287 2309timur salikhov + 7 495 287 2118asia oil & gas coal (hong kong)wee-kiat tan +852 2848 7488emea metals & mining, steel (johannesburg/mumbai)sara chan +852 2848 5292albert minassian + 27 11 282 1154josh du +852 2239 7593leigh bregman + 27 11 282 8969japan metals & mining, steel (tokyo)australia metals & mining, steel (melbourne/sydney)harunobu goroh +81 3 5424 5343craig campbell +61 3 9256 8936akira morimoto +81 3 6422 8650cameron judd +61 3 9256 8904li luo +86 21 2326 0032sarah lester +61 3 9256 8436global commodities (new york)india metals & mining, steel (mumbai)hussein allidina 1 212 761 4150vipul prasad +91 22 2209 7807ketaki kulkarni +91 22 2209 7925north america metals & mining, steel (new york)kalpesh makwana +91 22 2209 7171mark liinamaa1 212 761 3537evan l. kurtz1 212 761 7583paretosh misra1 212 761 3590wes sconce1 212 761 6004m o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10executive summaryoutlook continues to strengthen despite policy risks base metals: we expect further gains in base metal prices in 2010 and beyond, driven by a strengthening industrial production cycle, with copper and nickel our preferred exposures in this sector. precious metals: a strengthening us dollar and reduced de-hedging represent a significant headwind for gold, while we expect a revival in global automotive production and continued supply issues in south africa to be particularly favourable for platinum group metals. bulk commodities: a strong cyclical recovery in bulk commodity prices is taking place in 2010 as global steel production and power consumption are rising against a backdrop of significant changes to the contract pricing mechanism for iron ore and metallurgical coal.chinas manufacturing pmi and industrial production,2005-2010trade weighted index of the us dollar,2002-201060.055.050.045.0index yoy % chg20.0016.0012.00105100959085807540.035.08.00 70654.00 60feb-06 feb-07 feb-08 feb-09 feb-10chinese manuf acturing pmi (lhs) chinese ip (rhs)jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10source: reuters, morgan stanley researchsource: reuters, morgan stanley researchm o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10executive summarystay long this sector with a bias towards bulk commodities1h 09: strong policy stimulus, better credit conditions, rising liquidity, turn in leading indicatorsattractive sector re-entry point: base metals rally on chinese restockingfocus on usd and policy risk: increase weighting towards pgms and bulk commodities2h 09: expansionary policies maintained; further rise in leading indicators, coincident activity lagging (except in china), usd weakeningshift of emphasis: precious metals rally on us dollar weaknessbroaden sector exposure on strengthening growth but caution on gold2010-11 strategy: maintain exposure to sector: increase weight in bulks, selective base metal exposure with a bias towardscopper and nickel; increase pgmexposureq1 10: emerging markets drive growth, sub-par recovery in oecd, gradual but early liquidity withdrawal, usd strengthening5m o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10top picksglobal top equity overweightsattractive risk-reward balance in our favored stock picks vedantalarge iron and copper exposure, best in class growth and cost restructuring panaustlow-cost miner with potential for growth in preferred commodity copper western areashigh-growth, low-cost producer of high-grade nickel sulfide evrazexposure to growing asian markets and recovering russian construction sector xstrataleverage to three of our favored commodities copper, coal, and platinum implatsexposure to our favored commodities platinum and palladium tata steelsolid raw materials integration in high growth markets, and high steel price sensitivity valestrong iron ore leveraged name200%150%100%50%current price-50%57%57%41%35%33%25%25%23%bullbaseptbear-100%vedanta panaust westernareasevraz xstrata implats tata steel valesource: factset, morgan stanley research6m o r g a n s t a n l e y r e s e a r c hmarch 31, 2010global metals playbook, 2q10key changesmetal price revisions continue to reflect a strengthening cycle we have increased our 2010-11 base metal forecasts by a weighted average of 5.0% and 5.9% respectively as a result of the improved global industrial production outlook. the largest positive change to our base metal forecasts is in nickel, reflecting the impact of a much improved demand profile and a decline in the supply overhang. copper remains our preferred exposure in the complex based on resilient chinese demand, improved oecd off-take and constrained supply. q1 2010 mark-to-market changes have driven falls in our 2010 gold and silver forecasts, with further adjustments in silver designed to reflect this basing effect as well as lower industrial demand in the photography sector. we have further upgraded our pgm forecasts with a strong deficit market profile expected in platinum from oecd automotive recovery and strong growth in chinese autocatalyst and jewellery demand and a backdrop of continuing supply constraints in south africa.base metals:periodaluminiumcopperzincnickelalumina (contract)newoldchgus$/lb us$/lb%newoldchgus$/lb us$/lb%newoldchgus$/lb us$/lb%newoldchgus$/lb us$/lb%newoldchgus$/t us$/t%20092010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015elt0.750.990.981%1.031.012%1.101.055%1.201.154%1.181.107%1.151.0510%1.151.150%2.303.313.184%3.413.255%3.453.401%3.603.503%2.902.707%2.502.0025%1.951.950%0.741.030.976%1.071.033%1.101.055%1.121.102%1.050.996%0.980.8615%0.900.900%6.549.187.8517%9.867.9125%10.308.2026%10.508.2527%9.257.5023%8.137.1314%7.507.500%2283143053%3313261%3563405%3883724%3783547%370335 10%3803557%precious metals:periodgoldsilverplatinumpalladiumnewoldchgus$/oz us$/oz%newoldchgus$/t us$/t%newoldchgus$/oz us$/oz%newoldchgus$/oz us$/oz%20092010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015elt9741,1591,200 -3%1,1251,1250%1,0751,0750%1,0251,0250%9759750%9009000%7507500%14.7017.48 19.35 -10%17.29 18.14 -5%16.75 17.34 -3%16.25 16.52 -2%15.50 15.73 -1%14.52 14.520%12.10 12.100%1,1981,571 1,5253%1,638 1,5665%1,700 1,6135%1,750 1,50316%1,600 1,4639%1,450 1,4401%1,300 1,3000%261443372 19%471385 22%485403 20%500376 33%450366 23%400360 11%3503500%source: morgan stanley research estimates7source: morgan stanley research estimates8key changespricing revolution in iron ore and coal drives uplift in steel pricesperiodiron ore (australian fines - asia)iron ore (brazilian fines - asia)spot iron ore (aus fines)newoldchgyoyus$/t us$/t% chgnewoldchgyoyus$/t us$/t% chgnewoldchgus$/t us$/t%20092010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015elt62.1-33%118.0 118.00%90%129.7 129.70%10%136.2 136.20%5%143.0 143.00%5%135.9 135.90%-5%122.3 122.30%-10%53.5 53.50%59.0-28%112.2 112.20%90%123.4 123.40%10%129.6 129.60%5%136.0 136.00%5%129.2 129.20%-5%116.3 116.30%-10%50.0 50.00%127.1 127.10%149.0 149.00%150.2 150.20%151.1 151.10%139.8 139.80%123.6 123.60%bulks: we expect rising global production of steel and stronger growth in power demand to lift benchmark prices for iron ore, metallurgical coal, and thermal coal in 2010 and beyond. the magnitude of price changes being driven by the adoption of new pricing mechanisms in metallurgical coal and iron ore is unprecedented and far exceeds anticipated increases in thermal coal prices in jfy 2010. a 72% rise in hard coking coal prices compares with a forecast increase of36% in thermal coal in jfy 2010. the shift to quarterly contract pricing based on index-linked spot prices is having a more material impact on iron ore than metallurgical coal initially.periodhard coking coalqrtrly hccpci coalsemi soft coalthermal coalnewoldchgus$/t us$/t%newus$/tnewoldchgus$/tus$/t%newoldchgus$/tus$/t%newoldchgus$/t us$/t%20092010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015elt1292222220%2352350%2472470%2592590%2332330%2102100%1101100%2022020%2142140%2242240%2362360%2122120%1911910%1101100%901771770%1881880%1981980%2072070%1871870%1681680%95950%80167141 18%1501500%1571570%1651650%1481480%1341340%90900%709585 12%105987%110100 10%115105 10%10595 11%90856%70700%periodglobal hrcus hrcchina hrcjapan hrceuro hrcnewoldchgus$/t us$/t%newoldchgus$/t us$/t%newoldchgus$/tus$/t%newoldchgus$/tus$/t%newoldchgus$/t us$/t%20092010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015elt59069561513%75065515%79070013%81572013%79571012%76567513%6006000%53171063013%77065018%85071519%89575519%89575519%85071519%66066058014%67561510%6956655%7106608%6656404%6406154%72985071818%88075017%89577016%90077017%88077014%85077010%57371663712%80970016%82872115%84074812%81974210%79869714%steel:key changesmorgan stanley forecasts compared with consensusyear end decemberunitms2010e mkt 2010e % diffmsmkt2011e2011e% diffmsmkt2012e2012e% diffbase metalsaluminium copper zincleadnickelprecious metalsgold silver platinum palladium bulks alumina iron orecoking coalsteam coalus$/lb us$/lb us$/lb us$/lb us$/lbus$/oz us$/oz us$/oz us$/ozus$/t us$/t us$/t us$/t0.990.990%3.313.271%1.031.011%1.021.002%9.188.1612%1,15911293%17.4817.64-1%1,5711588-1%4434137%3143005%1189130%22219414%95897%1.031.021%3.413.45-1%1.071.07-1%1.061.024%9.868.1521%1,1251141-1%17.2917.99-4%1,6381702-4%4714720%3313078%1309438%23519421%1059313%1.101.028%3.453.285%1.101.073%1.081.062%10.307.9729%1,07510780%16.7516.551%1,70017020%485488-1%35630815%1369347%24717938%1109023%morgan stanley versus consensus, 2010emorgan stanley versus consensus, 2011ee = morgan stanley research estimates and bloomberg for market consensus estimates. source: bloomberg, morgan stanley research940%40%38%30%20%10%0%-10%30%14% 12%7% 7%5% 3% 2%1% 1% 0%-1% -1%30%20%10%0%-10%21% 21%13%8%4%1% 0%-1% -1% -1%-4% -4%10economic outlookchina still in the drivers seat the economic outlook continued to improve in the first quarter of 2010. growth in emerging markets and a handful of commodity-dependent economies outperformed most oecd economies that remain constrained by the after-effects of the credit crisis. however leading indicators of industrial production in the us point to a strengthening recovery over the course of this year, confirming our view that the us will be the strongest of the oecd economies this year, despite an apparent relapse of weakness in the us housing market. much of the cyclical growth story remains dependent on china and we remain very positive on the countrys outlook for industrial output growth this year and beyond. we have raised our forecast for chinese industrial production growth this year to 17.4% from our previous forecast of 13.5% following the increase in morgan stanleys forecast for chinas 2010 gdp growth to 11%. we also expect strong growth in output from india, brazil, and korea to lift 2010 global industrial production by 6.7% yoy to the highest level since2007.global industrial production 2008-15e20082009e2010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015echina12.710.417.412.712.112.411.011.0india4.46.18.17.510.310.48.06.1japan-3.2-21.912.08.54.87.04.03.0south korea3.0-1.38.07.09.47.26.04.0russia2.3-11.35.96.55.25.24.53.9canada-5.6-12.54.03.83.72.52.53.0united states-2.2-9.84.83.52.92.51.02.5germany0.0-16.78.34.54.74.53.01.5united kingdom-2.9-10.82.73.52.42.21.20.9global1.3-4.26.75.15.15.44.34.3e = morgan stanley research estimates. source: chr metals,