黑龙江省旅游产业结构分析.doc

黑龙江省旅游产业结构分析与优化孙晓（绥化学院 黑龙江 绥化152061）摘要：关键词：0引言1.黑龙江省旅游产业现状2.研究方法 2.1灰色关联分析法（万美元）表 黑龙江省国际旅游产业比较数列(万美元)Tab. Comparison sequence of intemational tourism industry in Heilongjiang Provine年份2002200320042005200620072008总收入（X0）交通(X1)游览(X2)住宿(X3)餐饮(X4)购物(X5）娱乐(X6)邮电通讯(X7)其他(X8)297175557.08475.474487.272525.9511262.74802.361129.253476.89243644556.07389.823678.962070.949233.96657.83925.832850.59302156163.87362.582205.701752.4713717.61694.951238.824079.033404311812.93578.734425.594323.467659.682417.051429.811395.764923312948.281230.839108.113840.1714179.10984.661821.625120.236427022944.392377.996619.815205.8716903.012377.992442.265270.148699526620.482609.858612.517133.5930013.281739.92957.837307.58 （i=0，1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8） （t=1,2,3,4,5,6,7）X0=(1,0.82,1.02,1.15,1.66,2.16,2.93),X1=(1,0.82,1.11,2.13,2.33,4.13,4.79)X2=(1,0.82,0.76,1.22,2.59,5.00,5.49) ,X3=(1,0.82,0.49,0.99,2.03,1.48,1.92)X4=(1,0.82,0.69,1.71,1.52,2.06,2.82),X5=(1,0.82,1.22,0.68,1.26,1.50,2.66)X6=(1,0.82,0.87,3.01,1.23,2.96,2.17),X7=(1,0.82,1.10,1.26,1.61,2.16,2.62)X8=(1,0.82,1.73,0.40,1.47,1.52,2.10)求差序列i，得到1=(0,0,0.09,0.98,0.67,1.97,1.86),2=(0,0,0.25,0.07,0.93,2.84,2.56)3=(0,0,0.53,0.16,0.37,0.69,1.01),4=(0,0,0.32,0.57,0.14,0.10,0.10)5=(0,0,0.20,0.47,0.40,0.66,0.26),6=(0,0,0.15,1.87,0.43,0.80,0.76)7=(0,0,0.08,0.12,0.04,0,0.31) , 8=(0,0,0.16,0.74,0.18,0.65,0.83)求两极差:=2.84 =0取p=0.5，代入关联系数公式得：1=(1,1,0.940,0.592,0.679,0.687,0.433) 2=(1,1,0.850,0.953,0.604,0.608,0.357)3=(1,1,0.728,0.899,0.793,0.962,0.584)4=(1,1,0.816,0.714,0.910,1,0.934)5=(1,1,0.877,0.751,0.789,0.605,0.845)6=(1,1,0.904,0.432,0.768,0.553,0.651)7=(1,1,0.947,0.922,0.973,1.136,0.821)8=(1,1,0.899,0.657,0.888,0.711,0.631)黑龙江省国际旅游收入与各部门的关联度Correlation between international tourism income and sectors in Heilongjiang Provine部门交通浏览住宿餐饮购物娱乐邮电通讯其他关联性0.7620.7670.8520.9110.8380.7580.9710.8272.2 SSM分析法 Hj,0=aij,0/Aj,0 Hj,t=aij,t/Aj,t PDi=Pi+Di 项目 全 国 黑龙江省 年份 2002 2008 2002 (%) 2008 (%) 合计 20385 40843 297 869.95 长途交通 5260 12487 51.71 17.41 251.42 28.90 游览 1431 2202 4.75 1.60 26.10 3.00 住宿 2565 4860 44.87 15.11 86.13 9.90 餐饮 1660 3873 25.26 8.51 71.34 8.20 商品销售 4211 8534 112.63 37.92 300.13 34.50 娱乐 1525 2970 8.02 2.70 17.40 2.00 邮电通讯 720 1002 11.29 3.80 29.58 1.70 市内交通 882 1355 3.86 1.30 14.79 3.40 其他 2131 3560 34.77 11.71 73.08 8.40 黑龙江变化率(rij)全国变化率(Rj)黑龙江标准化规模()份额分量(Nij)结构偏离分量(Pij)竞争力偏离 (Dij)基期占全国比例(Hj,0)末期占全国比例(Hj,t)偏离分量(PDij)长途交通游览住宿餐饮购物娱乐邮电通讯市内交通其他3.864.490.921.821.661.171.622.831.101.370.540.891.331.030.950.390.540.671334.2333.38564.62205.692326.5860.0239.8916.71363.471833.1717.98505.19274.222388.4656.8815.628.96243.735271.22238.193509.743093.219173.83703.39426.67198.212087.7912866.411878.20110.311240.217188.24177.271386.29885.421499.170.00980.00330.01750.01520.02670.00530.01570.00440.01630.02010.01190.01770.01840.03520.00590.02950.01090.020518137.632116.403620.054333.4216362.08880.661812.961083.643586.96指标游客增长总量（Gi）相对增