[应用文书]全球市场策略与展望中英文.doc

指久期加权债券After a few fairly quiet months, volatility returned with some force in June. Most of the action was in bonds rather than equities, but all financial markets experienced gyrations. The two themes that played out over June were strong global growth and concerns over the US housing market. As these issues are in conflict with one another, markets experienced volatility. Solid global growth is good for equities as corporate profits will be strong but bad for bonds as growth eventually winds its way into higher inflation. 经过几个月的平静，6月的市场恢复以往的波动。虽然大多数的振荡发生在债券市场而非股票市场，但是整个金融市场表现出一种上下起伏的回旋状态。 6月的市场有两大主题：强势的全球增长以及对美国房地产市场的关注。由于这两大主题之间存在矛盾，市场出现不安定的波动状态。全球经济稳步增长对股票有良好推动作用，企业可从中获益，但也因此最终将导致通货膨胀率的上升，从而对债券不利。 Over the first fortnight of June, as positive economic data was released, bonds sold off and equities rallied. In the middle of the month news broke that a couple of hedge funds managed by Bear Sterns that are invested into securities linked to US sub-prime mortgages were either going to go bust or would need substantial rescuing. This revived the concern in the markets that the drag from US housing is likely to spread in a very negative way across the US economy and could ultimately damage global growth. Bonds managed to rally over the second part of June whilst equities sold off. 在6月的前两周，由于利好经济数据的公布，债券跳水，股票走高。但是6月中旬，消息传出由贝尔斯登（Bear Sterns）所管理的两支对冲基金因为其投资了与美国次级抵押债券挂钩的有价证券而面临破产，这使得整个市场重生美国房地产的不景气将会阻碍美国经济发展、并会最终损害全球经济增长的担忧。因此，债券在6月下旬走强而股票遭到抛售。 Our view continues to be that US housing weakness will be a major drag on US growth this year but the risk of US recession as a result of the housing downturn is very low. The reason for this is that US housing whilst important, represents only 5% of the economy, and as such is not large enough to drag the whole economy down. Many commentators point to the flow on risk to consumption from a fall in house prices, which is clearly a big issue. 我们仍然认为美国房产业的疲弱将会在今年成为阻碍全美经济增长的主要因素，但由于房地产的低迷而导致美国整体经济衰退的风险很低。原因是，尽管美国房产业很重要，但是其仅占全美经济的5%，因此，从数量上并不足以拖慢整体经济的发展速度。很多评论认为房价走低将会导致消费出现低迷，显然这倒是一个大问题。 However, whilst consumption is related to wealth levels and asset prices, it is far more driven by income growth and employment. Income and employment in turn are a function of business investment. If businesses increase spending on capacity, they will also be adding labour to work with that additional investment. This is exactly what has been happening to the US economy, with employment growth running at over 1.5% y-o-y and the unemployment rate at near cycle low of 4.5%. Consumer confidence despite the weakness in housing also remains strong, consistent with trend like growth of the US economy. 然而，尽管消费与财富水平、资产价格有很强的关联性，但更多地是受到收入增长率以及员工就业情况所驱动，而收入增长和就业又是商业投资所带动。如果企业 在产能上增加投资，将会导致追加劳动力投入，这正是在美国发生的情况：美国的就业率以每年超过1.5%的速度增长，失业率则维持在4.5%的低位。尽管房地产疲软，消费信心依旧充足，与美国经济增长的趋势一致。 Conditions for continuing business investment are clearly supportive as corporate cash flow growth is solid, business confidence is positive and companies are underleveraged. Without a broader deterioration in employment and income which would result from a business investment slow down, it is unlikely that housing alone will send the US into a recession. Also, in terms of US home prices they have now fallen by around 3% from a year ago. There is scope for further falls of 3% or so making a cumulative fall of 5% to 6% in median house prices. By US historic standards, this would be the largest decline in home prices in 40 years. 公司有稳定的现金流，商业信心充足，而且负债率不高，这些因素显然对商业投资持续有利。美国现在的就业率并没有恶化，商业投资速度也没有减慢，仅仅由于房产的走弱而导致美国经济的全盘萎缩，我们认为这样的可能性很低。目前的房价比去年已有的3%的跌幅，可以预期将来仍有3%的下跌空间，这样平均房价累计跌幅会达到5%或6%。这将成为美国历史上40年来最大的一次房价下跌。 However, this has to be kept in context that a 6% fall would come after home prices have gained 40% over last 5 years. Even after the fall in prices, it is estimated that over 93% of home owners will still have sizeable equity in their home, with average equity of over 40%. Thus the decline in home prices will undoubtedly cause pain, but it is unlikely to be a trigger for a US consumption collapse. 然而，必须看到6%的跌幅是在近5年房价涨幅达到40%的基础上的。在经历了房价下跌之后，据估计仍有超过93%的房产拥有者在房产上有大量投入，平均权益比重为40%。毋庸置疑，房价大跌会产生损失，但是不太可能引起美国消费的滑坡。 Outside of the US, global economic activity remains healthy. Emerging economies which account for over 25% of global growth are maintaining strong momentum, most clearly seen in Chinas growth, where GDP growth in Europe is likely to come in at over 2.5% in 2007. Japan has been more mixed, but the economy should still average growth in excess of 2%. The overall picture for the global economy is healthy as the slow down in the US has been offset by strength in Europe and emerging markets. 在美国之外，环球经济活动依旧保持健康状态。占总增长25%的新兴经济仍旧保持强劲势头，中国经济的增长最为显著。欧洲可能在2007年有超过2.5%的GDP增幅。日本的情况比较复杂，但经济应该仍然有超过2%的增长。世界总体经济状况仍旧健康，美国经济增长的不景气被欧洲以及新兴市场的走强所弥补。 The backdrop of solid economic and corporate profit growth is positive for equity markets. Aside from growth, the other major driver of equities has been significant mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity, financed primarily by private equity that has driven up public company valuations. M&A volumes in 2007 are running at almost 8% of total market capitalization, lower than the12% reached during the 98/99 tech bubble but certainly significant. Unlike the tech bubble days, the M&A story this time is different as it is financed by real cash as opposed to paper swaps between very expensive companies. The significant inflows of cash into public equities from private hands signals that market valuations still remain attractive relative to the cost of debt capital. 稳固的经济以及公司收益增长对股票市场而言是利好消息。除此之外，另外一个极其重要的推动力就是公司兼并与收购活动，由私募股权资金发起的购并活动已经提升了上市公司估值。在2007年，并购额占了市场总市值的8%，虽然少于98/99年度由于科技股泡沫而一度达到的12%，但仍然是一个很高的水平。与科技泡沫时期不同，这次购并潮由真金白银推动，而非股价高企的公司之间纸面上的换股。大量的现金从私人投资者手中流向上市股票显示出市场估值相对于贷款成本而言仍然具有很强的吸引力。 Our own assessment of valuations is that whilst we have seen deterioration in valuations since the start of the year, as a whole they still remain attractive and are not a barrier to higher equity prices. Bond yields have trended higher since the start of the year which has not put a brake on equities, as the improvement in growth has offset higher yields. 我们自身对价值的判断是，尽管今年年初以来估值越来越高，但从整体来看，整个市场仍旧具有投资吸引力，并且不会妨碍股价进一步走高。债券收益率从今年以来就有走高趋势，之所以没有对股价走高产生抑制作用，是由于盈利增长的改善抵消了债券收益走高的负面影响。 Markets though are clearly not without risk. There is a tremendous amount of financial leverage in the system and almost all high yielding assets are heavily geared up. Due to the size of leverage and the number of investors crowding into similar trades and positions, the chance of a financial accident occurring at some stage in the second half are high. Whilst the problems in the US sub-prime market may not send the economy into a recession, they still carry the potential of causing some damage to asset markets. 很显然，市场并不是没有风险。在整个系统中有大量财务融资，而且几乎所有高收益资产的配置都被大幅度调高。由于融资的量很大，并且大量投资者涌入类似的交易、持有类似的仓位，发生财务危机的可能性在今年下半年会变高。尽管美国次级抵押债事件可能不会导致经济衰退，但其产生的问题将可能对资产市场产生潜在威胁。 Any corrections are likely to be temporary but probably painful in the short term, similar to May and June of last year. As the cycle is still healthy and interest rates are not high, the trend for equities is expected to be up. However, it is important not to be complacent. As equities have had a strong run over the past year, this is not the time to increase risk, but a strategic overweight position remains warranted. 与去年5，6月相似，任何市场调整可能都是短期的，但会给市场带来一定打击。由于整体周期依旧健康，并且利息也不高，股票依旧有望走高。然而，更为重要的是不要为之满足。因为股票市场从去年开始持续走强，虽然现在并不是为其增加风险的时候，但是战略性的看好仍然是有理由的。 Within equity markets we maintain the preference to Asia, Emerging Markets and Europe over US and Japan. Asia continues to be a region with the best growth prospects, very solid upward earnings revisions and relatively attractive valuations. China remains the locomotive of the regions growth. Asia also benefits from strong offshore inflows due to the undervalued nature of the regions currencies. 在所有股票市场中，相对于美国与日本市场，我们仍然更为偏好亚洲市场，新兴市场以及欧洲市场。亚洲各国仍旧是最有增长潜力的地区，具有稳定的盈利修正和更有吸引力的投资价值。在这些地区中，中国依旧扮演着经济增长发动机的角色。另外，亚洲也从因为当地币值被低估而涌入的大量离岸现金中获益。 For bond yields our view is neutral to underweight. We do not expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates this year, which should place a cap on the upside of US bonds at somewhere between 5.25% to 5.5%. On the downside, it will be hard for US bonds to rally much below the 4.9% to 5% zone as global growth remains firm. 对于债券收益率我们的看法是中性偏看淡。我们不认为美联储将在今年提高利率，这意味着美国国债收益率的上限在5.25%到5.5%。而在下限方面，美国国债价格反弹到比4.9%到5%更低的区域也是十分困难的，因为全球的增长仍旧比较稳固。 In Europe and Japan, short rates are expected to rise by up to 0.5% over the second half of the year, but that is discounted into European and Japanese bond yields and is unlikely to shift prices significantly in those markets. As cash is currently yielding around a similar yield to bonds we dont see much value in the bond market. 在欧洲和日本，短期利率在今年下半年有望增长0.5%，但这已经体现在欧洲和日本债券的收益率上，而且这个数值也不能显著影响到这些市场的交易价格。因为目前现金的收益与债券的收益相差无几，我们认为债券市场没有太多投资价值。 Currency markets are continuing to push the carry trade. Currencies with the highest domestic interest rates are faring the best, namely Australian and New Zealand dollar and also the Norwegian Krone. Of the major currencies, there has been range trading between Dollar and Euro and Pound Sterling and the Yen. We expect hat this range trading will continue. 货币市场依然推动套利交易，具有最高利率的澳元，新西兰元以及挪威克朗最为坚挺。主流货币中，美元/欧元，英镑/日元维持震荡，这一趋势将会延续。 In our view, the best opportunity in terms of value remains in Asian currencies, as valuations are still cheap and fundamental growth drivers, foreign exchange accumulation and trade flows clearly support further appreciation. 我们认为，最具投资价值的仍旧是亚洲的货币。因为其价格低廉，并且基本面的推动、外汇盈余积累以及贸易流动，这些将会进一步推高估值。股票策略 美国回顾 US equity markets sustained their recent record breaking run during June with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 Index, both hitting new peaks. However, interest rate concerns and elevated bond yields did mean that it was not all one way traffic for equities during the month and the S&P 500 ended down 1.8%. Much of the equity market weakness during June was attributable to the sharp rise in bond yields, which accompanied increasing expectations that US interest rates are likely to be on hold for some time, with further increases becoming a possibility as economic performance picks up. The Federal Reserve held US rates at 5.25% at their June meeting and their statement provided little in the way of hope for investors looking for signs of potential easing of monetary policy. Heightened concerns about rising interest rates left equity markets vulnerable to profit taking, having traded around their record highs, and accordingly stocks were volatile. 美国股票市场6月份继续最近以来的破纪录势头，道琼斯工业指数和标准普尔500指数双双创新高。然而，对利率的关注以及债券回报率的上升，让大家认识到这个月股票并不是会一直上涨的，标准普尔500指数下跌了1.8个百分点。债券收益率急速上扬是6月份打击股市的主要因素，市场预期美元利率虽暂时不会变动，但将来会由于经济走强而有可能上升。美联储在6月把美元利率维持在5.25%，从其后的声明中，企图从中找到可能降息的蛛丝马迹的投资者不得不失望。对利率可能升高的高度关注使已经在历史高位运行的美国股市对获利回吐非常敏感，也因此，股票市场将出现震荡。展望 Macro-economic data paints a mixed picture for growth. While indicators for manufacturing like the ISM came out strong, consumer confidence surprised on the downside and housing market data continues to be weak. The put call ratio for the S&P 500 index, a proxy for investor sentiment, rose noticeably over the month indicating increased nervousness amongst market participants. Our view continues to be that US housing weakness will be a major drag on US growth this year but the risk of US recession as a result of the housing downturn is very low. The backdrop of solid economic and corporate profit growth is positive for equity markets, with M&A activity being a significant growth driver for markets. While the US still trades at a significant premium to Europe, US valuations relative to peers have improved. Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards and earnings momentum indicators are in a positive trend. 宏观经济数据显示增长前景好坏参半。虽然诸如ISM的制造业指标强劲，但消费者信心却出人意外的下滑，而楼市仍然疲软。作为反映市场情绪的指标-标准普尔500指数的熊牛比率在6月份大幅走高，显示出公众焦虑的上升。我们依然认为全美地产业的疲软将会成为阻碍美国经济增长的一个主要因素，但是不会导致全美经济的萎缩。稳固的经济以及公司收益增长对股票市场而言是利好消息，一个极其重要的推动力就是公司兼并与收购活动。美国股票相对于欧洲而言仍然有相当高的溢价，但相对于同类国家而言估值已经有所改善。盈利预测已经被向上修正，盈利趋势指标也表现正面。欧洲（英国除外）回顾 Largely as a result of the spectre of rising interest rates, European equity markets were lower during the month, with the FTSE Europe ex-UK index down 1.1%. The strong rise in Eurozone bond yields caused some unease among equity investors in the early part of the month, butsentiment was supported by ongoing merger and acquisition stories and by the key support of corporate earnings. Interest rates were increased to 4% during the month, as had been expected, and the largely positive economic background proved to be something of a double edged sword for equity investors. Whilst supportive of corporate earnings and therefore of equity prices, sustained economic strength is also likely to prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue raising interest rates and this conundrum left European stocks returning a lacklustre performance during the month. 欧洲的股票市场这几个月以来一直走势不强，主要原因是由于升息的影响。金融时报欧洲指数（英国除外）下跌了1.1%。在本月早些时候，欧元区债券收益率的大幅上涨在股票投资者中引起了一些不安，但是并购活动和最核心的公司盈利仍然支撑市场信心。本月欧洲利率如预期般上调到4%，强势的经济增长背景对于股票投资者而言是把双刃剑。持续的经济增长支撑着盈利增长并因此提高了股价，但也有可能促使欧洲央行继续提高利率，难解的谜题使得欧洲股票市场在本月表现不佳。展望 Consumer and business confidence indicators continue their strong upward trend: for example, the business confidence indicator has shown better readings since May 2005. Given the strong data, it is not surprising that growth forecasts keep being revised upwards. Given the relatively benign inflation picture, we keep our year-end target for Euro-zone rates at 4.25%, but acknowledge that the risks are on the upside if growth continues to pick up momentum. Good growth and attractive relative valuations continue to create a more favorable outlook for European markets than for the other major markets. The pattern in earnings revisions is an additional element of support, especially for the Euro-zone markets. 消费和商业指数承继高猛势头，举例来说，自从2005年5月开始，欧洲商业信心指数一直显示出很好的势头。在这样的背景下，上市公司盈利预测被不断调高并不奇怪。我们认为，在相对温和的通货膨胀率背景下，今年年末欧元区利率目标位仍是4.25%，但是如果经济一直加速增长，实际上升息的风险也会因此加大。持续的良性增长和极具吸引力的相对估值使欧洲市场比其他主要市场显得更具优势。盈利向上修正是一个对股市的额外推动力，尤其对欧元区市场来说。英国回顾 Equity markets in the UK reached fresh six and a half year highs during May, helped by further signs of merger and acquisition activity and continued strong corporate earnings. Mining stocks were active during the month and indicated the potential for consolidation in the sector. Oil stocks were also higher during the month, with merger and acquisition speculation again a key catalyst. Merger and acquisition activity was also to the fore in other market sectors. Whilst takeover news continued to dominate financial headlines, corporate earnings maintained a positive trend and added further support to investor sentiment. This background helped UK equities to shrug off both the interest rate rise to 5.5% and the prospect of further rises to come. The FTSE 100 Index closed 2.7% higher during the month. 在并购活动以及公司盈利强劲增长的背景下，英国股市5月份创下了六年半以来的新高点。矿产股票在本月表现活跃，显示出该板块有调整的可能。在并购活动的刺激下，石油股也在本月走高。并购活动也在其它板块扮演重要角色。关于公司收购的新闻依旧占据报纸财经板块头条位置，同时公司盈利增长也保持良好趋势并增强了投资者信心。在这样的大背景下，英国的股票市场未受其利率增长5.5%并且将来可能继续上调的影响，在本月收盘时，金融时报100指数以上涨2.7%收盘。展望 First quarter earnings have been a key element in maintaining equity market confidence and in addition to the continuing M&A news these two factors have largely outweighed the path of UK interest rates creeping higher and the sustained recent strength in the oil price. However, UK interest rates look likely to increase. UK corporate performance has so far been able to absorb the steady increases in interest rates and the Bank of England have forecast above trend growth for the UK economy in the first quarter. Nevertheless, investors will be keen to see signs that UK rates could soon be nearing their peak, a factor that could be important in sustaining the increasingly mature bull market for UK equity stocks. 第一季度的盈利以及持续的并购新闻成为支持股市信心的两大关键因素，很大程度上共同抵消了利率上调以及油价上涨的影响。然而，英国利率很可能上升。英国上市公司迄今为止的表现已经吸收了利率稳定上调带来的影响，并且英格兰银行在今年第一季度已经预计到了经济的快速增长。不管怎样，投资者可能马上就能看到英国利率见顶，这对于维持逐渐成熟的英国股市的牛市显得十分重要。日本回顾 Japanese equities followed the trend of their international peers in June, with the Topix Index ending the month 1.1% lower. Once again, concerns about the global interest rate environment weighed upon sentiment, amid concerns that it could hinder world economic growth. Corporate earnings failed to provide a consistent catalyst for Japanese stocks as results were mixed and the pick up in general levels of equity market volatility also added to the lacklustre returns from Japanese stocks during the month. 日本股市在6月与世界市场的趋势相同，Topix指数在6月以1.1%的跌幅收盘，其原因又一次出于对全球利率上调可能阻碍世界经济发展的担忧。公司盈利数据好坏参半，没有继续为日本股市提供推动作用，股票市场波动性的增加进一步使得当月日本股市也没有出彩之处。展望 The performance of Japanese equities in June is much more encouraging than the poor performance seen at the beginning of the year. However, macro-economic data continues to disappoint: e.g. private machinery orders dropped for the third month in a row. Inflation continues to hover around the zero line, indicating little change in the pricing environment. As deflation is still a concern, the Bank Of Japan is likely to only raise rates gradually. On a valuation basis, the case for Japan has deteriorated slightly and it also continues to trade at a premium relative to peers. On the back of the weak growth data, analysts are increasingly pessimistic about the earnings outlook. 6月的日本股市表现比今年年初的糟糕表现要好得多。然而宏观方面依旧差强人意。比如，私人机械产品的订单连续3月下降。而通货膨胀率在0点附近徘徊，表明物价环境也几乎没有什么改变。由于担心通货紧缩，日本银行可能仅会逐步上调利率。以估值水平来看，日本市场有轻微的恶化迹象，相对于同类市场而言，依旧存在溢价。出于日本疲软的增长数据，分析师对盈利增长前景表示悲观。亚洲（日本除外）回顾 The MSCI Far East